Things in Catalonia could be coming to a head, soon. Actually, tomorrow. The central government in Madrid has not been shy about making somewhat pointed threats. As with any political strife, there are lots of stresses involved, beyond borders, laws and trade. Rumblings from some news sources are pinning this recent drive on the Left. But a small far-Left movement would not be enough to push this over the line, into a full blown secession. There appears to be a sizable part of the populace in the region does appear to want out of Spain.

What this will end up looking like will have a possibly large impact on “Europe” – the EU, NATO and the like. I will be watching for several things:

  1. Will Madrid use force to prevent any formal breakaway? If so, in what manner – send in the Army and National Police, or just arrest the political leadership and lay off the ordinary people?
  2. If force is used, what do the Catalan people do in response?
  3. If force is employed, what will France do? [keeping in mind that the Basque ETA used to cross the border and hide in France]
  4. If Catalonia does break away – would the EU, NATO, et al ask them in? [Slovenia, as an example, comes to mind].
  5. Will crazed soccer fans demand that FC Barcelona continue to play in the Spanish League?

Here is hoping the whole thing ends up a non-story and there is no violence…but that ain’t the way I am betting.

Stay tuned, as they say.


UPDATE: Splitting from the splitters?