Don Swissxote checking in on Catalonia… Hmmm. Looks like another vote. When last we left this mess, the former Catalan Regional President, Carles Puigdemont, had fled to Belgium, to avoid the fate of other members of the regional government – imprisonment (which didn’t stop campaigning. *Chicago area politicians perk up*). Note, however, that the international warrant for Puigdemont was withdrawn (should he go back to Spain, I have no doubts the handcuffs would be on him in seconds).
The scenarios for post-vote Catalonia are numerous. I will glibly lay out what they are:
- On the one hand, voters have been scared off from independence – by the use of force by Madrid (cops beating down people voting in the October referendum) or the number of business HQ’s fleeing Barcelona, or having second thoughts about being wholly responsible for themselves (in a national sense) now. So, they end up with MILFy Ines Arrimadas in charge….the independence movement returns to Quebec or Scotland levels of annoying/festering.
- On the other hand, independence favoring parties win small – but squabble while trying to form a coalition to govern, and accomplish little to nothing before collapsing and needing new elections (see post-war Italian and Belgian governments). Being the cynical SOB that I am, I think this will end up happening… and the sound of cans being kicked down the road will echo for years.
- Or, on the gripping hand, independence parties end up winning bigger – people get a case of the “fuck off, slaver” and one of the three independence parties gets enough of a mandate to lead a coalition….from exile, from jail or in Socialist person. Madrid would again suspend the regional government, send in the coppers and we would reach a decision point… give up under the force employed? Turn into a Basque style guerrilla type conflict? Start Civil War 2.0?
As a libertarian type, I want force avoided. But, it ain’t my country/language/culture/self-determination at stake. I am not ready to go off and join the Reconstituted Abraham Lincoln Brigade as of yet. But this will be worth watching one way or the other.
P.S. For those that Twitter, follow #catalonia for all sorts of opinion and news.
UPDATE: Check here for results.