A proper essay leaves you with more than just questions:  this ain’t no proper essay.  These are the times that, well, no one knows, yet.  But I’d like your help improving my list of questions.

 

1/ How long and serious is this virus stuff? Even if we got the all-clear in twenty minutes, some damage has been done.  Like a goat going through a python, we’ve lost at least a full week, a global loss of, say, 2% to choke down; this won’t heal and tan over in a month.  That comes off any growth rate you had planned for 2020 (3% for DST45, less for others).  What would that mean for you:  a lost vacation, tire replacements delayed, silver instead of gold?

 

2/ How extensive will government help interference be? Will they print more money?  (Okay, I actually know the answer to this one; you do, too)  Which industries and institutions will be pumped up?  Who gets a check, a deferral, a program?  Which winners and losers will the free-market Trump&Co pick?

 

3/ Who will disappear? Let’s say three million Americans get this and 1% die:  that’s 1% of 1%.  I only know 1,000 folk, so only one chance in ten that someone I know gets a dirt nap out of this.  But those are slim, slim odds.  If it’s an order of magnitude worse, not hard to imagine, I figure everyone will know someone who checked out over this.  I just got back from my third run to Chicago this year, but I’m taking two weeks until I see my folks again; they were born in ’40 and ’45, and I’d prefer their deaths be of some workaday circumstance that can’t possibly be traced to my employer’s selfish need that I maintain our great relationship with some company in Cook County.  I’m 55, and my friends run older; someone will get unlucky . . . maybe even me.

 

4/ Which way will money run? My dry cleaner is screwed. Clean jerseys have been cancelled for the season.  Aprons and napkins are less needed.  I just got work-from-home orders, so I’m doing the full Dilbert and don’t need my collars starched all of a sudden.  Will he cancel his man-cave remodel?  Will he lay of half his team?  Will he stay open at all?

 

5/ When do we call the bottom? As Kobe taught us, you can only go so low for so long.  Suppose we enter a new paradigm for a few months:  that would hurt, but eventually things recover.  I’m a bargain hunter and a bone collector, so it’s coming my way; in a dollar-cost-averaging sort of way, pull-backs are a silver lining.  Take housing:  I think it’s over-valued.  Of course, the bubble is pumped up by the government, and who knows how much interfering they’ll do.  So far we’ve already seen some of the heaviest re-financing weeks in history as the Federal Reserve posted an unplanned easing of a half point on top of all-ready nearly-free money (Republicans are the party of money and markets and management and I’m so tired of making fun of DJT45 anymore, but I was told this was the greatest economy ever; also Trump:  rates should be eased . . . go figure).  The refinancing crowd has essentially taken those houses out of the market for a while, and good for them for locking down what they like.  But a bear market and a recession raise the likelihood that prices will fall . . . at some point.  If housing drops 20%, do I upgrade?  Or will further Fed nonsense jack inflation through the roof, erasing the value of the dollars I have faster than the value of homes fall?  Or will the USG announce a $100k bonus for all home purchases the day after my buy closes?

 

6/ Which of the king’s new clothes won’t be there tomorrow? High tides hide old wrecks; we sail over past mistakes and dare not mention their names.  The mediocre and even day-traders can be kings in a rising market.  But if 2020 goes bad and “earnings” dive and dividends evaporate, you can bet that management will want to get a lot of other garbage off the old balance sheet while they’re at it:  it will be slash and burn time.  That merger that isn’t really working out:  write down that goodwill now!  Retained “earnings” a bit exaggerated?  Confess all now:  they can only hang you once.  If your bureau or division or product line or client is the weak sister at work, prepare to be sacrificed.  A few more Hail Marys are a small price for confessing one or two more sins on top of the slate of old trespasses we’ll be getting off our plate this year:  go forth and sin no more . . . once you take all the haircuts you can think of.

 

I want to strike.  I want to buy.  I want bargains.  But I have no idea what time it is.  Efficient Markets Theory says you can’t pick instruments or time changes:  anything might go lower after you think you’ve found the bottom.  That little black dress could go on sale the day after you buy yours.  Or Uncle Powell might mail us all a coupon for 20% off on our next whatever if we wait long enough.  I want to buy . . . . things should go on sale soon . . . but I’ll wait and watch.