In three previous articles I looked at how the polls for the Democratic nominee for President compared to the bookmakers’ odds, which in turn reflect what the betting public believes will happen. This is an update to see how the landscape has changed after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.
A snapshot taken of the polls and odds on five dates presents a good summary of what has happened: (i) August 15, when Elizabeth Warren’s odds first passed Joe Biden’s, (ii) October 13, when Warren’s odds peaked, (iii) November 20, around my last report, and (iv) January 24, right before the Iowa caucuses, and (v) February 18, with results from the first round of polls after the New Hampshire primary. All data are taken from averages compiled by RealClearPolitics.com.
First, the national poll numbers, in %:
| Aug. 15 | Oct. 13 | Nov. 20 | Jan. 24 | Feb. 17 | |
| Biden | 30.5 | 29.4 | 30.7 | 28.9 | 16.5 |
| Warren | 17.3 | 23.2 | 18.0 | 14.6 | 12.8 |
| Sanders | 16.0 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 22.7 | 27.3 |
| Harris | 8.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | — | — |
| Buttigieg | 5.2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 10.8 |
| Booker | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | — | — |
| Yang | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.0 | — |
| Bloomberg | — | — | 3.0 | 7.6 | 15.8 |
| Gabbard | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Klobuchar | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 6.8 |
| Steyer | — | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Next, the odds, in % (anyone who has never been above about 5% not shown):
| Aug. 15 | Oct. 13 | Nov. 20 | Jan. 24 | Feb. 18 | |
| Warren | 29.6 | 53.4 | 26.8 | 11.3 | 2.0 |
| Biden | 27.9 | 19.9 | 25.5 | 35.6 | 11.4 |
| Harris | 16.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | — | — |
| Sanders | 14.1 | 6.3 | 15.7 | 33.6 | 41.8 |
| Buttigieg | 8.6 | 7.7 | 20.5 | 7.2 | 11.4 |
| Yang | 5.0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 4.5 | — |
| Clinton | 2.5 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 |
| Bloomberg | — | — | 4.9 | 12.5 | 32.1 |
| Klobuchar | < 1 | < 1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 |
(Note: the odds’ percentages add up to more than 100% since these are inferred from betting odds, which have a vig for the bookies cooked in.)
Biden of course was the big loser in the polling after Iowa and New Hampshire, as his showing indicated he is not really what the (Dem) people want, at least in those states. Bloomberg was the big gainer, despite not even being on the ballot in New Hampshire. Buttigieg gained a little (surprisingly little since he essentially tied with Sanders in the first two contests), and Warren lost a little, and continued her downhill slide. Klobuchar’s numbers went up after better-than-expected performances in Iowa and New Hampshire.
In the odds, Biden was the biggest loser, as the bettors seem to mostly think that he is done. However, that might be a bit of an over-reaction (and markets can over-react, right?) – more on this below. Warren’s assumed chances also have taken another major hit. Bloomberg was the biggest gainer, followed by Sanders and Buttigieg (the latter still not back to his November peak, however). Clinton still has a few who believe she has a chance (cue ominous music).
On the horizon we have the Nevada caucuses (Feb. 22), the South Carolina primary (Feb. 29), and then Super Tuesday (Mar. 3), which includes big-voter states California and Texas. The most recent average poll results in these states are shown below, along with the date of the most recent poll for each (state polls are done much less often than nationally).
| Nevada | South Carolina | California | Texas | |
| Feb. 16 | Feb. 13 | Jan. 27 | Feb. 9 | |
| Biden | 16.0 | 26.5 | 21.0 | 28.0 |
| Sanders | 30.0 | 20.0 | 25.8 | 22.7 |
| Warren | 14.5 | 9.0 | 19.8 | 15.0 |
| Steyer | 10.5 | 16.0 | 2.7 | — |
| Buttigieg | 12.5 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 5.7 |
| Klobuchar | 9.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Bloomberg | — | — | 4.3 | 11.7 |
Biden appears to have a lot of strength still, although only two of the polls here are post-New Hampshire and California is pre-Iowa. Nevada and South Carolina have similar numbers of electoral votes compared to Iowa and New Hampshire (6 and 6 versus 6 and 4), so Biden could challenge for second place in the delegate count before Super Tuesday. Sanders also looks to do well through Super Tuesday.
The most striking aspect of this to me is the support for Bloomberg in the odds, without corresponding support in election results or the polls. Apparently a fair number of people are willing to put down money that Sanders is not going to get the nomination, and they seem to think that among the other candidates Bloomberg has the inside track. My read is that even if Sanders was ahead in the delegate count going into the convention, due to the fragmented field he wouldn’t have a majority, and the non-Sanders delegates would coalesce around some other candidate. The “smart money” may believe that candidate would be Bloomberg, perhaps because Warren is too much like Sanders policy-wise, Biden is, well, Biden, and Buttigieg doesn’t have as much experience. The only other choice among front-runners is Klobuchar, but perhaps she also lacks experience and name recognition, although her midwest connection could help in some swing states (the Dems are winning New York no matter who is running).
Another factor in Bloomberg’s popularity with bettors may be his perceived electability. The table below shows how various candidates do versus head-to-head Trump in recent polls. They are ordered by the bias they have in favor of the Democratic candidate, which is pretty consistent across all candidates.
| Bloomberg | Biden | Sanders | Klobuchar | Warren | Buttigieg | |
| Quinnipiac | +9 | +7 | +8 | +6 | +4 | +4 |
| CNN | +9 | +9 | +7 | +3 | +5 | +4 |
| FOX News | +8 | +9 | +6 | +1 | +5 | +4 |
| LA Times/USC | — | +9 | +7 | +2 | +4 | +3 |
| NBC/WSJ | +7 | +8 | +4 | +3 | +3 | +4 |
| NPR/Marist | +4 | +6 | +3 | +2 | +1 | +2 |
| ABC/WashP | +3 | +4 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -3 |
| Emerson | — | 0 | +2 | — | 0 | -2 |
| IBD/TIPP | +1 | +1 | -2 | — | -4 | -3 |
| Average | +5.9 | +5.9 | +4.1 | +2.5 | +2.0 | +1.4 |
It’s interesting that the FOX polls are similar to CNN’s, whereas Investor’s Business Daily’s are the most favorable for Trump. Also, Biden appears to do as well as Bloomberg.
If Sanders leads the delegate count going into the convention (my understanding is that superdelegates don’t vote on the first ballot), and doesn’t ultimately get the Dem nomination, it could get interesting. If that were to pass, here’s a sneak preview of the popcorn futures market on the morning of the Democratic national convention (from an Oct. 23, 2012, article by Anthony Watts on wattsupwiththat.com):
As I said in the last post, there is much more detail at RealClearPolitics.com, if you want the complete picture (of polls and odds, not popcorn futures).
First
You aren’t even on the ballot!
He saved it from earlier,
That’s not a legitimate First then.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cYgyqA_7BM
“Are you mockin’ me?”
It all going to come down to DNC national convention rules and eventually to “who counts the votes.”
I’ll be checking the trunk of my car on election day. Just in case some boxes of ballots get accidentally left there.
Hey, it could happen.
This is what worries me.
Bloomberg’s bottomless bank account he’s willing to spend on ads has to factor into the odds. I could break 10% in the odds if I was going to spend a $Billion on ads about how awesome I am.
(D)rake!
Vote for me – I care! And free shit!
It isn’t even the ads. He’s bending the curve by hiring all the usual Dem hacks who work on campaigns and signing them up through Nov. If you are one of the other campaigns it is very hard to find anyone who is willing to work on your campaign and if you do, they want lots of $$ and guarantees.
I’m thinking that there might be a business opportunity to outsource phonebanks and other campaign functions for the rest of the Dems. Why not take Bernie’s money?
A billionaire using the free market practices to screw the socialists in the democratic field is kinda freaking priceless, like him or not.
*reads back last comment*
Look at that, I’m officially drunk, or stoned…both.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I’m drunk. My country’s going down the fuckin’ DRAIN, and the only people trying to stop it are seen as Western rednecks:
https://buffalodeclaration.com
I wish I had been drinking. It would have saved me a trip to the gun store.
What did you do?
When I’m mildly to moderately drunk, I’m aware of it and become conservative and risk averse.
Since I was sober, I decided to quickly swap out the carbine buffer tube on Gelding and replace it with an A, since my Hogue rifle stock showed up.
I of course, lost the buffer detent spring.
A2
Also, TIL that the hammer needs to be cocked to install a rifle buffer.
Of course.
Your detent spring has been ducked Into the same void that consumes the caps on 1911 slide springs and AR extractor pins never to be seen again.
Pffft. Drinking + Gunbroker has gotten me multiple surprises the next morning.
Already got my next purchases planned out:
1. When the gunsmith at MOA recovers from his hip surgery (March?) send the Stoeger in to have the race package done on it.
2. Wild Bunch legal 1911 in bright nickel to double as pimp gun.
3. SP01 Tactical, to be sent to CGW for IDPA.
I’m finally in good shape 9mm wise, but I have failed in my hollow tip .38 for my little 5 bullet snubbie Special. I want to fill it! Might have to go to AZ.
Cali bans hollow points?
These did well on The Meat Target.
I mean Lehigh Defense is a 5 minute drive from me, but I just can’t buy into their thing. I wish them well, but I’m not buying their stuff. Too pricey, too gimmicky. Get off my lawn.
No, they are legal, just in extremely short supply!
I know some AZ Glibs who might be able to hook me up if I road trip to Cali.
I would completely believe that their stuff is gimmicky and designed to game the FBI tests.
Except that Paul Harrel was convinced. And he HATES any “hyper” ammo.
I ordered a case of 7.62×39 today. ?♂️
Two days from now – Sean gets a tiny box in the mail, opens it and finds a single shell casing.
A case. Not a box.
Sgammo.com is good peoples.
Yes, a case. One empty shell case.
That was supposed to be the joke.
Ohhhh. You meant a casing!
Not a case.
(OMG, did I just out pedant UCS?)
Not really, you just stabbed the carcass of a dead joke.
Who shot better?
I am hateful. I know.
Sean hasn’t shown up to Steel Challenge yet. I have been looking at matches in PA and will be taking him up on his offer in the spring.
2) Damn, you’d use a 1911 as a throw-away?
This to start with
These grips.
I expect many bubba heads to asplode when I show up to a match.
I had a bottle of this beer tonight and I managed to stay off of GunBroker.
I spent a lot on guns last year.
Once I get my medical bills and taxes taken care of, instead of buying more guns, I need to get a safe.
Your link is drunk.
It was a lot of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yjpHCmB_L0
Huh, now it works. BEAM must have posted here before flipping the switch on his website host.
It’s probably the en dash spaces I put in before the initial URL. Sorry.
I see what you did there.
‘My country’s going down the fuckin’ DRAIN,…’
Hey, at least we’ll make great pets…or fertilizer.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H833o5lnB2E
Perry Farrel is a genius.
Also, quite the asshole.
His voice is more polarizing than Geddy Lee’s but I always loved all his (old) stuff.
For some reason, I like male singers with shitty voices. Lee, Farrel, Cohen…
Yeah, it’s weird. I despise Geddy’s voice, but I have no problem with Perry’s. I also hate the guy from Coheed and Cambria. I also can hate and love the sound of Thom Yorke’s voice depending on the song.
Yorke’s an unusual case as his voice can swing from grating to haunting and beautiful within a single song. Most bad singers are just bad and that’s it.
Damn, you kinda nailed it.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NUnXxh5U25Y
He goes from mumbling and whiney to ethereal and like you said, haunting.
My momma always said if you have nothing good to say…
Aw, fuck it. Radiohead fucking blows.
You’re such a Creep.
Heh.
Much like death metal, I have to be in the mood. Some songs I love, some I hate. Can’t really explain it.
Love the avatar, by the way.
My favorite PF quote, liberally paraphrased:
“I let a guy go down on me once. I’m not gay, but I curious and figured he’d be good at it being a guy and all. He was terrible. He went at it like corn on the cob.”
I have difficulty believing that the guy who wore a corset as a skirt was all that concerned about who he put his dick into.
*shrugs*
Nothing’s shocking.
*golf clap*
I don’t. Most of the shit his kind do is for “shock” value.
Yeah, that is pretty much my gut feeling as well. Even if he did let a dude blow him, he probably just did it for the story.
You may be completely correct. But even in the late ’80s in LA he was kind of notorious for the amount of pharmaceuticals he indulged in.
Wait, you’re a Canadian?
Ok. Why the fuck do people still refer to Bloomberg and Pete as still having the Mayor title?
Mayor Pete and Mayor Bloomberg? I keep hearing this and it’s grating. They keep the title for how long after leaving office?
People here do the same thing with Mr. Napolitano.
His first name isn’t Judge? Like Cooper, Hunter, or Mason?
Don’t forget about Reinhold.
Ladies and gentlemen, Alison Krauss.
I like to refer to him as “that Fox guy with the weird hairline.”
Maybe they don’t know Andrews name
His Twitter handle is JudgeNap.
Sounds like a product for putting justices to sleep.
Ugh. He’s hosting “Kennedy” tonight. Good thing I’m going to sleep shortly.
*changes channel*
Bring back Kat!
Hier
Hey, it’s a title of nobility
Oooh–my ears are burning. And, not just because of the flaming q-tip.
We’ll revoke that title if you’re not careful.
I bought
itthem, fair ‘n’ square.\You DO believe in property rights, correct?
?⚖️
I don’t think such titles should be used even when the officehilder is in office but not performing official duties. ie, Bernie would only be ‘senator’ when in the capital and the senate was in session. Joe, Minimike, and Pete would have no titles at any time.
Bernie and Liz should also be halving their pay docked while campaigning.
That irritates the shit out of me.
yeah, I really thought Peter was still mayor.
Your Royal Highness is taken?
That’s a style, not a title. Just like “Judge soandso” is styled “Your honor”
Ummm…..
People still refer to me as Dr (Splosives), but it’s been a long time since I did a triple integral by hand. I always register as “Ms.” at conferences.
Is it on your business cards?
Nope
Bah, you can at least append the “PhD” on the end of your name.
I expect you shitlords to start addressing me as Captain Spud.
Okay, bubbles.
Capistan Pud it is!
Larf.
Assistant to the Captain Spud?
He will always be MISTER Bob Dobalina
I like it. It reminds people that Pete’s entire experience qualifying him to be President was as the asshole mayor of a college town.
And for the Gnome of Tammany Hall, it reminds people of his record, and I would love to see Trump with an outright win among Black voters.
asshole mayor of a college town.
Isn’t that redundant?
What experiences qualify one to be president? I thought it was ‘be over 35 and not born in Kenya’.
Are eligibility requirements coextensive with qualifications? I’d say they are necessary but not sufficient. Actually I’d say that is tautological, but maybe I am oversimplifying.
You’re correct regarding requirements/qualifications. I was trying (and failing) to get to the what counts as a qualification argument. Being a mayor, being a senator, a businessman, ex-military? It’s almost seems that some people change what qualifies a candidate based on whoever their preferred candidate is. I’m not saying you are doing this just that it’s done and that is why I questioned what exactly you consider legitimate qualifications.
Oh I was just taking a shot at the idea of a pro politician type thinking he can skip all the steps. As far as I am concerned I’d love to see a candidate who had in some fashion demonstrated that he could be relied on the fulfill the oath of office:
I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.
“Ok. Why do people still refer to Bloomberg and Pete as still having the Mayor title?”
Perhaps it is considered proper to do so.
Here: How Honorifics Are Used in English
Glossary of Grammatical and Rhetorical Terms
Note that this is not in any manner and extensive search.
The Safest Bet https://youtu.be/q9hEVqsQio4
Sounds like Elvis Costello.
Bought? I bought a couple shirts, and some p-ants for work,
You are going to go in looking sharp, feeling sharp, and ready to reboot again! Yusef 6.0 (or whatever)
I went back to Blonde, first step, fresh uniforms, next step,
third step, Good looking guy…
Back to blonde?? I’m cut to the quick!
You should change your handle to Ginger Traitor. : (
SC has 9 EC votes, I believe.
Oops, you’re right. Even better for Biden (at least before Super Tuesday).
Cleaned the house, did the dishes, cleaned the kitchen and did All my laundry i really needed to catch up….
One foot in front of the other, my friend.
Being productive does wonders for your attitude. Clutter and disarray give me anxiety/anger.
You’re ahead of me.
OI want some new tires for the Kia, any recommendations? I drive many miles, but no snow,
Round ones.
This fucking guy…
Michelins are always good, and my Pirellis are also good. I was unhappy with the Continentals on my 328xi, I don’t know if that reflects on the band or because they were run-flats. The Yokohamas on my Subie are awesome, but the ones I had on my Z3 were death traps.
Conti DWS are fantastic.
I’ve never had run flats.
I was thinking Cooper, but I do like Michelins….
I think if you put Yokohamas on a Kia a lace war breaks out.
Never dip your sushi in kimchi.
Pirelli is good. I used to run Bridgestone potenzas on my RX-8, great but short life.
Michelin for life here.
Because so much is riding on your tires.
And if you buy them from Sam’s club, free patches and minor repairs for life.
Michelins. ALWAYS Michelins.
The Michelin’s that came with my wife’s car were garbage. She has Yoko’s now and I have BF Goodrich KO2 on the truck.
The default tires cars are delivered with always seem to be crap.
I was talking to my cousin about that. A tire company getting a huge contract vs poor association with the brand. I’m sure the accountants at Michelin have crunched the numbers.
I wager a lot of people don’t pay a lot of attention to the brand of the default tires compared to knowing the brand of the replacement tires they buy later.
Probably true, but now I have a poor opinion of Michelin and won’t consider them for replacements.
My wife was happy with the Michelins that came with her Jetta. She didn’t like the Nokian WR tires she had in between. Good tires, but a lot of road noise and weren’t that comfortable. Loves the Michelin MXV4’s on now.
I’m too cheap to buy Michelins. I have Goodyears.
“I think I got knockoffs, they say ‘buenoaño’.”
I like Falken for a less expensive but great tire.
The Joshuas?
I don’t get the reference.
Oh, you two…
*knowing glance at Florida Man*
https://mobile.twitter.com/w_o_p_r________/status/1168483007784787968
This is freaky. Joshua Falken #Florida Man.
Christ. If you need a spotter just to stand, it’s far past time to call it a day.
Would you like to play a game?
Shit, son, I’d piss on a spark plug if it thought it would do any good.
The trick is not minding that it hurts.
I thought the only way to win is not to play the game.
You have just quoted my absolute favorite line from that movie.
Now, excuse me while I go re-adjust this foil hat…
That was directed at you, HE.
Tell me if I’m crazy: isn’t the actor who played Professor Falcon the same who played the evil bishop in Ladyhawke?
I had Rutger Hauer on the brain after watching Bladerunner recently, and it led me to musing upon Ladyhawke. Cheesy, but I still love it.
I don’t remember but I love Ladyhawke too. Two movies with Matthew Broderick, two movies with… that guy?
That movie has not aged well, but ONLY because of the soundtrack.
The last time I tried to watch it (within the last year), the soundtrack made it unbearable.
IMDB says yes, same guy
John Wood (RIP)
I have Nokians for snow tires and Bridgestones for the summer tires. The Nokians are Hakkapalitas (sp?). I forget the model Bridgestones I have.
I’m amused at how many of these names (nobody needs 23 different brands of tire?) I know only from observing the ads surrounding the field at soccer matches.
I bought a set of speed rated Continentals for the wife’s beater beamer. Love ’em. My last set of Michelin’s on the Tahoe only lasted 35,000 miles.
Try the Continentals. They’re cheap, so if you don’t like them, it’s not like you’re a lot out of pocket.
My last set of Michelin’s on the Tahoe only lasted 35,000 miles.
* scratches head * I routinely get 60k out of mine. My HD admittedly has a longer wheelbase, but it also has about a half round of slop in the steering take-up since birth. I run the most aggressive mud and snow tire they mold without getting into the genuine off-road treads. And mine are E-series as well. I’m not doing any towing lately, so they’re only pumped to 60PSIG; loaded I tend to 80 front and 100 rear. The rev limiter won’t let me run harder than about 96MPH. I’ve driven out of storms in IN and KY that stopped tens of thousands and drug tons of trailers down half the trails in TX, NM, and OK . . . never been stuck. I think durability is rated well over 400. In these woods they run $1,200 a set.
I’m too lazy to worry about tires or spend time in the shop having new ones mounted. Like shoes, I buy the best and just forget them. I find spending two or three times as much means they last two or three times as long, but, all the while, you’ve got the best equipment.
I grew up in a Goodyear plant town, which was a bit of Mayberry for a Mississippi native. I dutifully bought their stuff for a couple of decades and feel like their traction/cornering was excellent but durability was about half (300?).
I was going to submit a review for the first bout between Fury and Wilder before the upcoming rematch but I’m lazy and easily distracted, so I didn’t.
TL;DR version:
Wilder should have won on points.
Fight me.
Why do you think any of us would have a strong enough opinion of the matter to engage in violence?
Say that again and I will kick your effing ass. Strangling gloves or not.
that again
I thought it was amusing.
*dead thread corpse fuck*
Just run with it. Being known as the guy with strangling gloves is far edgier and cool than the old flavorless mush meme.
“What?”
*wraps hands in gauze, puts on left mit with right hand, uses teeth to put on right mit*
Come at me, bro!
Shit! I forgot my mouthpiece and cup! Not the nuts! Not the nuts!
And will somebody tie my fucking laces?! I didn’t think this through!
If you give 5 points for a knockdown, sure. Fury is going to easily put point him this time around.
*out point him. Watch out for Wilder’s right and Fury solves the puzzle.
Ah, at taker! I’ve watched it a few times now. Even without the knockdowns, Wilder should have won by a point.
There’s an unwritten rule for scoring professional bouts by round. And that’s basically what’s called “meaningful punches”. Fury out punched Wilder most rounds, but Fury patty-caked most of his punches. His jab wasn’t effective against Wilder, his combos didn’t really stop Wilder from advancing aside from a small handful of times during a twelve round bout, and he didn’t really control the fight at all. I hate to say it, but those things matter. Especially in a heavyweight bout. It’s far more accepted in the lighter divisions. I know, it sounds entirely subjective and stupid, and it is, but that’s how they usually score things. Wilder imposed his will and landed the far more effective punches for more round than Fury.
I will give Fury credit though, that dude has a great chin. I mean a great chin. The second time he got off the canvas Wilder was absolutely shocked. So was I. So was everyone. Even Fury, I think.
Wilder’s face was pretty fucked up after that fight. Fury is so huge that what look like patty cake punches carry a lot more weight than appears.
Oh, I thought there was a handful of times that Fury landed some hard combos. He even hurt Wilder once or twice. My guess is that damaged occurred during those exchanges and and a smart boxer will pepper those spots whenever they are exposed. And Fury isn’t a dumb fighter. He’s definitely the superior technical fighter. I’ve been saying for the last few years now that as Wilder ages and he doesn’t tighten up his stance, defense, and punches, he’s going to get beat. Maybe in a few days.
The X-factor here is the scar tissue Fury got from his last fight. It was surgically worked on just a few months ago. If Wilder can open up that tissue, and he’s got the heaviest hands in the game, it’s over. A few buddies and I bought the fight, so I’m excited.
Today in I hate everybody involved:
I’m constantly impressed at her tenacity – when she’s not busy trying to take down Orange and bankrupt Wall Street, she still finds the time to figure out ever more ways to suck the blood of taxpayers.
“The very government that was supposed to ensure fair practices in the marketplace engaged in a scheme that defrauded hundreds of medallion owners, leaving many with no choice but to work day and night to pay off their overpriced medallions.”
Fair practices, regulatory capture. To-ma-to, to-mah-to.
Isn’t “inflating the price” the whole point of an *auction*?
Especially when you
havehad a government-imposed monopoly.Pretty sneaky, Sis.
Whoops – wrong thread.
This makes little sense. The AG claims the city knew prices were inflated as early as 2011. Prices rose through 2014. She is suing the city for transactions back to 2003. Maybe the claim is valid over 5 or 6 years. Beyond that it’s just a shakedown.
Is anyone in all of this proposing the obvious and reasonable solution?
lul.
Bankruptcy?
Bank-taxi?
I was going for eliminate the medallion system, but Municipal BK would be fun to watch.
Her job is to shake down money for the state government. That’s all you need to know.
Hey nerds, any of you read R.A. Salvatore? It’s been a while since I’ve read much fantasy and I’ve a hankering to dive into some. I see he has a lot of books and series, any suggestions on where to start? or if I even should bother with him? thanks and sorry about that nerd thing.
I remember seeing his stuff when I spent more time playing D&D, but I’ve never read anything by him.
Start with Lord Foul’s Bane. His best work.
Fuck that, I hate lepers.
How about this guy?:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aTJFwwJ7VF8
I see what you did there.
I didn’t. What did he do?
Those who know the author have no need of his name.
I was a bit confused because I didn’t remember a R.A. Salvatore as the author.
He’s not. Which only makes me more annoyed at Ra and straff.
I blame the diamondraught – Straff is Amok.
I’m going to assume you’re making references to the contents of the work in question, but it still fails to explain the original comment.
I assumed Straff knew the actual author and was messing with us.
I stand firmly by my original comment.
*shrug*
I have no idea.
I’m going to go back to trying to write this scene.
I can’t even.
I read one of his books, it was kind of meh, so I didn’t read another. Your mileage may vary.
It’s pretty low-rent, from what I remember. On par with the Star Wars extended universe novels I used to read.
Apparently, he writes D&D stuff and… Star Wars extended universe novels. So… yeah.
No surprise. I knew him from his Drizzt books.
^THIS^
Nerds https://youtu.be/_AsUQ17xvwk
I don’t read much fantasy either, but I did enjoy The Craft Sequence.
Much lighter, but I’m enjoying the Arcane Casebook books so far; reminds me a bit of Correia’s Grimnoir books, which I really enjoyed.
Speaking of which, Correia’s Saga of the Forgotten Warrior have been very good – his writing is getting noticeably better, year to year.
And, of course, our literary Glibs have many offerings for you.
Thanks, I might checkout the Craft thing, Arcane Casebook seems a bit done, “hard boiled detective but in a fantasy setting” again?. As for the literary Glibs UCS is apparently gong all Rothfuss on us and not finishing any series he starts and I don’t read books written by or about women so Mojo’s out, Animal has some books but the one I looked at was 600+ pages and I can’t make that kind of commitment right now.
What defines a series as ‘finished’? I write them as I come up with ideas for those characters and settings. ‘Finished’ implies an overall story arc that wraps up. If I do my job correctly (and I admit I may not), then any book should be readable on its own.
Did he write for Penthouse Letters? No? Then I didn’t read him.
I checked out a couple episodes of Jason Stapleton’s podcast “Wealth power & influence.” I felt like he was preaching to the audience the entire time. He embraces the puritan work ethic and tells the audience that any free time you have, you could be working to better yourself. He said he never listens to the radio in the car, opting to use that time to learn new things instead. I think the podcast is not for me because the lifestyle he is preaching too closely mimics my own. I want more free time in the future. I don’t want to follow my natural tendency to be a workaholic.
I don’t know this person, but spending free time improving yourself doesn’t have to be “work”. Spend some time at the gym improving your body or reading to improve your mind or painting to improve your soul. Etc. it’s relaxing and fun, but more productive than watching the real housewives of wherever.
“… but more productive than watching the real housewives of wherever.”
Pooping into an old tennis shoe and then scrubbing it clean with kerosene is more productive than the real housewives of wherever.
Bloated Housewives https://youtu.be/iu5VZqbTs4Y
Huh. I don’t know what to say.
Having watched OSU get their ass handed to them by those corn-suckin in-breds in Ioway, Im quite drunk.
HEY YUFUS!
Keep pushin’!
Who needs the Buckeyes when you have FLYER FEVER???
I dont think either of us is going to live long enough to see another UD team like this.
Are the betting lines 10 months out any more historically predictive than polls?
Don’t know, I didn’t watch them 4 years ago.
As I alluded to in the article, markets can be wrong, too. And just look at the rise and fall of Warren in the odds.
markets can be wrong
Markets are always half wrong. In every transaction, someone got rid of something at a price that someone else thought was a good deal; both are right in their own way, but, at some point, one of them will wake up coyote ugly. In the meantime, the market rings up the latest transactions and posts it as if it meant anything.
Markets set prices moment by moment to balance selling desire with buying desire, does that really define a ‘value’. I am increasingly skeptical that value is really a defined or even definable concept. It seems to be a portmanteau with various and contradictory meanings. I think that may be what you are saying here, and I think you are right. Lovers of liberty tend to talk about the market as magical, but it’s just aggregated decisions and there isn’t really any reason to believe those choices are representative of anything more than whim in many cases. The magic of the market is bankruptcy and business failures. Seriously, it’s the negative signals that move us forward more than the positive ones. Evolution works by the power of death.
“, but, at some point, one of them will wake up coyote ugly.”
I don’t believe that’s always the case. For instance, a number of years ago I was reading that people were denigrating Imbel made FAL receivers as South American junk. I knew they were probably the best receiver available so I bought a bunch at a low price.
Now, they’re considered the premium item if you can get one – about triple what I paid for them.
I have no regrets. The dealer who ordered them for me made his commission. The importer made a good profit too.
In your case, my metaphor would point to the manufacturer who left a lot of meat on the bone before he knew he was making a premium product.
Ive bragged before but my son is once again at looking at a guitar tab for 5 minutes and then turning around and playing it with ease.
On a more topical note he says “i dont understand why people would vote for Bernie…I like my stuff i earn through my job*
Now ask him which person running doesn’t want to take his stuff?
Super OT: ‘Splosives, thanks for recommending eShakti, I just got my first dress from them and I love it!
Listening to the latest Fifth Column podcasts. They have a couple of Daily Beast journalos on – I don’t know if journalists realize how pompous and off-putting they sound when talking about their jobs.
On the plus side, no Welch this week.
Haven’t listened to that one yet.
I don’t agree with the full philosophies of many of the folk I listen to online, but I’ve got to where I really like them because of their experience, intelligence, and manners. In honor of the poll comparisons posted in the article, here are a couple of my lists based on who I listen to regularly.
philosophical alignment
11. Nate Silver (no idea)
10. Matt Welch
9. David French
8. Jonah Goldberg
7. Michael Moynihan
6. Sarah Isgur
5. Katherine Mangu-Ward
4. Ken White
3. Peter Sudermann
2. Nick Gillespie
1. Kmele Foster
general likeability and listening preference
11. Sarah Isgur – boring millennial
10. Peter Sudermann – boring millennial
9. Ken White – neutral
8. Katherine Mangu-Ward -neutral
7. Kmele Foster – good instincts, no portfolio
6. Jonah Goldberg – good-natured and vulnerable
5. David French – good-natured with portfolio
4. Michael Moynihan – smart and pithy with portfolio
3. Nate Silver – brilliant and dispassionate
2. Nick Gillespie – balance of philosophy, experience, silliness, and tact
1. Matt Welch – amiable, seasoned, and often wrong
Don why do you say Kmele has no portfolio no
Christ. Last no =?
It was just shorthand and might well not be correct. I know he’s an ardent free thought and free speech guy; notice I rated him my best philosophical match. I haven’t really read him; I just enjoy Fifth Column all out of proportion to its intellectual gravity. Maybe he has written well and widely, but I don’t think of him as a new idea guy; his power is intellectual honesty and living about the fray of collectivism that he could have easily embraced.
But he doesn’t have a story yet. I’m glad he has a kid and bought a house, but he’s just getting started at things the rest of us are old hands at. He brings wonder, not wisdom. I rate his instincts as excellent, but he just doesn’t seem to know much: not widely read, not studied in history, no particular expertise or experience, no Rumspringa or gap year or failed business or gauntlet run.
Compare with Moynihan who, while incredibly irritating, still speaks several languages, has lived all over Europe, and is never stumped or fails to contribute on any historical incident, philosophy, or news event. In experience and knowledge, I rate Moynihan about an order of magnitude more informed and more traveled.
If I’m buying a car or a stock or a house, contemplating a ballot, or suddenly forgot what Agnew went to prison for, I’m not asking his opinion. That’s what I meant, but maybe there is a better shorthand for it than “portfolio?”
I sort of got it on the first pass but this clears it up for me. Your word choice is fine.
I’m about 20 minutes into it. You are right about the journalists but that seems to vary by guest. These Daily Beast journalos take themselves very seriously. They have had plenty of others that are more light hearted and, IMO, more interesting.
I can understand why Welch grates on your nerves but on the whole I like him.
I like Welch, I just don’t ever want to hear about the time he spent in Prague again. Plus his politics seem fairly conventionally leftist, so it grates when he calls himself a libertarian.
Some journalos are indeed good guests – I think Ben Dreyfuss is wrong about everything, but he’s a hilarious guest.
TBF, part of the problem with this episode is that they recorded it early in the day – they’re better when they’re getting drunk.
Christ you guys are a fucking train wreck. And l love the lot of ya. And I’m not even drunk…Well, a nice buzz, but certainly not drunk.
There are five levels of drinking…
Or this…..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcJajkVR7FM
Larry Miller is great. I haven’t seen him in anything in years.
“not even drunk”
Coming from a potato-suckin’ Mick
I guess I better get this in quickly: The DFW Glib-up for Saturday evening, is more up in the air than it was, thanks to a sick co-worker who denied she was sick until tonight. I plan on making it known I’m not available to work, but, unknown how that’s gonna go over, due to upcoming events here.
Ancient Chinese secret, huh?
Good lord, I hope not! It’s just that the boss, who I really like working for, sends mixed signals about sick time (I did, too, when I was a supervisor), and it leaves the young ‘uns feeling like they have to deny being ill, until it’s a last-minute situation. Had she been told to stay home and deal with it, things would probably be different.
I’m pretty sure the draw is Mark Hamill. And Gojira. But mostly Hamill.
What am I, UCS over here?? What did I do that glibs would rather talk to that self-entitled schmuck?
You didn’t voice the Joker.
That you know of…
You don’t have a glove collection.
Is a Kennedy coming to town?
Heh. It would only be a big deal if Kennedy were in town… Even then, she’d be invited to the soiree.
Shamelessly stolen from a facebook post
TOOLS EXPLAINED
DRILL PRESS : A tall upright machine useful for suddenly snatching flat metal bar stock out of your hands so that it smacks you in the chest and flings your beer across the room, denting the freshly-painted project which you had carefully set in the corner where nothing could get to it.
WIRE WHEEL : Cleans paint off bolts and then throws them somewhere under the workbench with the speed of light. Also removes fingerprints and hard-earned calluses from fingers in about the time it takes you to say, ‘Oh sh*t’
DROP SAW : A portable cutting tool used to make studs too short.
PLIERS : Used to round off bolt heads. Sometimes used in the creation of blood-blisters.
BELT SANDER : An electric sanding tool commonly used to convert minor touch-up jobs into major refinishing jobs.
HACKSAW : One of a family of cutting tools built on the Ouija board principle… It transforms human energy into a crooked, unpredictable motion, and the more you attempt to influence its course, the more dismal your future becomes.
VISE-GRIPS : Generally used after pliers to completely round off bolt heads. If nothing else is available, they can also be used to transfer intense welding heat to the palm of your hand.
OXYACETYLENE TORCH : Used almost entirely for lighting on fire various flammable objects in your shop. Also handy for igniting the grease inside the wheel hub out of which you want to remove a bearing race..
TABLE SAW : A large stationary power tool commonly used to launch wood projectiles for testing wall integrity.
HYDRAULIC FLOOR JACK : Used for lowering an automobile to the ground after you have installed your new brake shoes, trapping the jack handle firmly under the bumper.
BAND SAW : A large stationary power saw primarily used by most shops to cut good aluminum sheet into smaller pieces that more easily fit into the trash can after you cut on the inside of the line instead of the outside edge.
TWO-TON ENGINE HOIST : A tool for testing the maximum tensile strength of everything you forgot to disconnect.
PHILLIPS SCREWDRIVER : Normally used to stab the vacuum seals under lids or for opening old-style paper-and-tin oil cans and splashing oil on your shirt; but can also be used, as the name implies, to strip out Phillips screw heads.
STRAIGHT SCREWDRIVER : A tool for opening paint cans. Sometimes used to convert common slotted screws into non-removable screws and butchering your palms.
PRY BAR : A tool used to crumple the metal surrounding that clip or bracket you needed to remove in order to replace a 50 cent part.
HOSE CUTTER : A tool used to make hoses too short.
HAMMER : Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer nowadays is used as a kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive parts adjacent the object we are trying to hit.
UTILITY KNIFE : Used to open and slice through the contents of cardboard cartons delivered to your front door; works particularly well on contents such as seats, vinyl records, liquids in plastic bottles, collector magazines, refund checks, and rubber or plastic parts. Especially useful for slicing work clothes, but only while in use.
Son of a bitch TOOL : Any handy tool that you grab and throw across the garage while yelling ‘Son of a b*tch’ at the top of your lungs. It is also, most often, the next tool that you will need.
So, someone doesn’t know how to use the hardware they spent too much money on. Figures.
Can confirm, uh, a couple of these.
This made me laugh. Every one of them.
Hey-Suthen! I haven’t seen you on at night, lately.
I have always called hazelnut “the bitch nut”. Someone has obviously been spying on me, but, I’ve found my new favorite movie line.
I’ll be back.
Hmmm…That was never my favorite movie line.
I didn’t say it was. I had to go to the bathroom if you must know.
BRB, don’t you chatroom speak bra? BTW, A/S/L?
I don’t have to know…
::pushes notepad out of view::
Endeavor to persevere.
Does it count if it’s a line I wrote for a movie that was never made?
“I have a terrible thirst for liquids.”
Would you think of adding that to a future H&H episode?
Please?
I’ll see. It’s less fun out of context. This was to be a parody of spaghetti westerns, and that was the ‘Man with no names’ line upon arriving to town and meeting a local, which leads to the scene in the saloon, nach.
I’ve been laughing at it for a while now, w/o context. But, I gladly leave it to the professional.
I’ll see what I can do. But my writing style is to let the characters speak and I just write it down. They may not want to say it.
Pitch it to Vivid. I think they’ll make that one.
Not a bitch.
Also
*pours Fragelico in Sir D’s Irish coffee to produce a Hot Irish Nut*
Now, why would you waste good coffee like that, and risk serious facial burns??
Also, my titles my be Celtic in vicinity, but, I’m pretty sure I’m more Germanic.
So, I’m right at home in the UK.
Hi-yo!
Germanic… no Manner wafers for you then. Ok, all except Neapolitan.
Now, hold on, there–they have chocolate! And, choco-caramel somethingorother…
….So good, they had to give it a different name?
soda vs pop
Well, good to know the ethics violation(s) weren’t the only reason.
um, I think that’s only a thing for bi-dudes. *shudders thinking about that scene from Doom Generation*
Well, someone didn’t get the memo. Or, didn’t get the opportunity to be told, I guess.
Also, when you stare into the void… Just know that some movies take more than they give.
I love that movie but that scene was a… bit much.
WTF. Take some responsibility you lazy, entitled ass.
Sure, everyone hates bi chicks. That’s why all dudes are calling for Kyrsten Sinema to resign and totally not beating off thinking about having a three-way with her.
This thing?
Why the hell is this student doing laundry with his hoodie up? Is this some sort of gang thing? “Anarchist”?
Money laundering for the Student Loan cartel.
Dammit, Jar….you are simply fantastic.
Whatever the reason, don’t call the popo.
https://youtu.be/a_0xYamFYYI
Dude–job? Also, his is a lightish royal blue, and I…..
Oh, well played, you skeevy little bitch nut!
/not you, Chafed.
Dude give it up. Sometimes staying quiet is the better choice.
https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2020/02/19/dem-house-majority-whip-james-clyburn-isnt-impressed-by-low-black-unemployment-under-trump-because-we-were-fully-employed-during-slavery/
And, the benefits were waaay more awesome, too!
You can’t parody this stuff.
You can’t. I wonder if there is anyone in Team Blue leadership that cringes when they hear this stuff or if it’s just the James Carvilles of that universe who get it.
They all think they’ll get wished into the corn field by the young voters if the say anything.
So he’s saying work made them free?
That was Rep. Goebbels.
I think the takeaway is that freedom is slavery.
https://youtu.be/mQ2-SkLfldk
Woo hoo–back up and running!!
How long was it down? I only turned my computer on about an hour ago and it was down then.
3-4 hours…give or take.
So THAT’S why there were so few new comments when I got up and got here this morning.
Got home from work and refreshed and there was the message of doom. Signed out and back in and there it was! The warm glowing glow of Gibertarians.
Imma just go ahead and own that typo. Gibbertarians does seem fitting…
We speak Glibberish! : )
We’re the Glibs! We came here To Gibber!
Huzzah for our ElectronOverLady! The Omnissiah speaks through her divine machine spirit.
That wordpress incantation just looked like some ancient sacred rite poorly translated from the original Sanskrit. Festus=Not very bright.
I too was a forlorn and lost soul hours ago, looking for a way to. Get to Glibs!!
And now all is right in the world. Phew!!!
It’s probably not healthy how much time I spend on this site.
But you’re a better person for it!!
S’truth! This place has opened my mind to a lot of different attitudes and ways of thinking. Problem being that I visit Glibs in my study where there is beer and ciggies aplenty. Plus I’ve basically stopped reading books (con) or watching TV (pro) but Wifey likes when I watch shows with her (con).
One last thing: Polls show Hillary Clinton has a 97% chance of winning the 2016 election.
*I am still very suspicious they may give the nomination to her. God, I hope they do.
Bulldog is going to ride in. This will. be spectacular.
Hilldog.
The original fits. Wear it with pride.
Grandma Caligula is constitutionally incapable of NOT running for POTUS (“It’s Her turn!!”). The Wee Hizzoner thinking of her as VP was clearly a trial balloon floated by her minions.
Winning the office and choosing The Hildebeast as VP is suicide. Literally.
https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/fedex-worker-helping-stranded-driver-falls-75-feet-off-salisbury-bridge-survives/QSTGQ7THGZAEJC3XOAHSN6KEPE/
Yikes.
Yikes indeed! I hope this doesn’t move FedEx to make a rule forbidding their drivers from stopping and helping people.
Yeah, a throwback to my schwanns driver was dilemma.?i wanted to thank him to his manAger but didn’t want him in trouble. It was all good though.
From the department of “Power corrupts, HOA power corrupts absolutely”. Note – this is one of the areas hardest hit by Dayton’s Memorial Day tornadoes.
I wouldn’t buy a house in an HOA at gunpoint.
That case is especially egregious. My guess….said treasurer plans to sell those liens in one lump at ten cents on the dollar and abscond with the money.
Regarding the Wuhan virus and our troubles with blockades – I live in a city that is a major transportation hub and drive by the train yards every night. It’s usually just packed with container traffic but tonight it was eerily empty.
Yeah, that’s kinda creepy. The “preppers” may have been onto something.
Usually thousands of those double-stacked Chinese containers.
I received my March 3 ballot in the mail today. California has so many “measures” and “resolutions “ that are direct popular vote, I wanted to take time and research mine so I wouldn’t be confused or hurried at the polls.
The GOP has a closed primary here, meaning you have to be a registered Republican to vote in the GOP primary. Against my better judgment, I did register R.
Mainly so I can choose our new congresscritter candidate. Ian in a Red district replacing Duncan Hunter. It’s down to Issa ands deMaio.
November won’t even matter in California but March 3 will!
Also, as an aside, Bloomy must be bleeding MILLIONS on ads in California. It’s non stop.
On a different note, I flew under Corporate’s radar for a long time but my outlaw ways have finally caught up with me. I’m apparently 9 months in arrears for my skull-washing by the Health and Safety department and have one week to complete their bullshit courses. Damn you illness! Damn you to Hell!
Can you explain using small words, like you’re talking to a bunny rabbit?
He has manadatory training he has to finish within a week.
Hope you’re feeling better today.
Unofficially – somewhat.
Officially – I’m not going to drag myself in today (especially after waking up twenty minutes after the start of my shift)
What UCS said except I’ve always been spared this because they used to ignore me.
I signed on with these guys when they took over the contract from the previous guys. We had a hand-shake deal that if I agreed to join the Union and keep up the good work they would leave me to my own devices. Events over the last few months have made them notice me and they’re treating me like a standard employee. Huge multi-national firm is not my friend.
🙁
Ugh. My sympathies.