Civil War II: Branch Covidian standoff edition (episode 4)

by | Apr 28, 2020 | Big Government, Economy, Federal Power, Society | 294 comments

For the first time since beginning this series a couple years ago, I’m not convinced that it’s just a semi-satirical look down a nearly impossible course of events.

I wrote in the last installment:

The Right is, and for the foreseeable future will be, the key to any true armed conflict. The Right has the equipment, the tactical advantage, and the fortitude to wage war on the Left if ever pushed to do so. The Left has the motivation, but no ability. The Right has the ability, but no motivation.

Well, a motivation is very quickly materializing, but it doesn’t neatly fit in the political paradigm. While most on both sides have fallen hook, line, and sinker for the crisis du jour, and have unquestioningly sold what remaining freedom they had to the lowest bidder in exchange for a quick hit of emotional security, there is a growing impatience in certain circles, especially those with an appreciation for Constitutional history and/or liberty.

I think there’s an appreciable chance, for the first time in 45 years, of widespread violence and unrest. If the main actors do things in just the wrong way, a large contingent will take it upon themselves  to ensure that the overbearing tyrants shove it, good and hard.

That said, I stop short of calling it “likely”. I think that the most likely result is a metaphorical “Mission Accomplished” banner being collectively hung by the governors of the several states at a time calculated to be well before the natives start readying the ropes and the lampposts. Some may play chicken with their constituents and be forced  to put down some sporadic unrest, but they’re not stupid enough to knowingly plunge us into widespread strife. Besides, Fedgov looms large, and Trump would intervene (for better or for worse) before the governors went all “tell my family I love them” with their states’ economies.

Looking at the next three months, I see three paths forward. The first path is a quick return to normalcy, and a major recession in the wake. Equally likely is the second path, a slow return to normalcy skirting at the edge of public tolerance, followed by the depression all the public officials have been praying for since November 2016. The less likely third path is an increasingly politically aligned response resulting in Democrat governors of purple states with large GOP presence mistaking a growing unrest as normal political activism, resulting in them not pulling back the restrictions in time.

For the first time since the compromise of 1850, we’re in a situation where the status quo has us primed for violence. It will take action, not inaction, to preserve the peace.

What would the violence look like? It’s hard to tell. The economic damage seems to be bad but not yet society altering. At least, that the common perception. Everybody is hanging their hats on the economy getting back to normal shortly after the restrictions are lifted (which everybody expects to happen in weeks, not months) . The “V” recession. Sharp drop, sharp recovery. If they’re right, the violence will be sporadic and universally condemned.

Frankly, I find that doubly optimistic. Those that have been tracking the stats know that the original “flatten the curve” narrative is gone. Now we’re on to the “if it saves one life” narrative. The unpredictable part is that it pits the precautionary instincts, vanity and power lust of the governors against their rational thinking. Will they settle for amputating a toe, or will they wait for the foot to be gone? The leg? The torso? The nose? How much of the economy are they willing to part with to continue this charade? The response will be directly proportional to the governors’ individual and collective answer to this question.

The dangerous part comes if this conflict aligns to the political spectrum. If we have Democrat governors spitefully enforcing lockdown rules against angry Republican constituents, we’re well and truly fucked.

However, the protests are already being coopted for a thousand little hobby horses. Without focus, the protests will fizzle and fall apart.

When all is said and done, there are way too many variables to cover in a single article. Distilling down to what I actually think is going to happen, I think most of the lockdowns will be lifted by the 3rd week of May. They may keep talking about autumn restrictions, but they can’t keep this up without physical violence erupting.

My prediction is this: any state that is not single-party blue will erupt in violence if their lockdowns extend beyond memorial day. The exact inflection point may happen before that, but any state locked down after memorial day will be at high risk of becoming a nexus of violence.

My extra prediction is this: the single most dangerous situation will be if the full extent of economic damage is revealed at the same time that some governors are bull-headedly sticking to or extending lockdown restrictions. People will be out for blood.

All that said, I still hope and believe that this will end with common sense taking hold, but in this time of derp, one never knows.

About The Author

trshmnstr

trshmnstr

I stink, therefore I am.

294 Comments

  1. DEG

    Equally likely is the second path, a slow return to normalcy skirting at the edge of public tolerance, followed by the depression all the public officials have been praying for since November 2016.

    I think this will be the most likely outcome.

    • Florida Man

      IDK, there is a lot of pent up demand and a significant amount of workers kept their job. I know as soon as the restrictions are lifted I’ll be out spending money, so hopefully we will have a quick recovery.

      • Sean

        My spending actually went up a bit and I had to back off it.

      • Florida Man

        My income dropped so I cut my spending to the bone. Soon as work is back to normal I’m itching to go out on the town.

      • DEG

        My spending has been a mixed bag. Some things I’ve cut back on, some I’ve spent more on. The latter for take-out food to help some local businesses survive.

        Don’t neglect the government bail-outs and extra unemployment distorting things. Sure, the government is the root cause of the lockdowns, but their bail-outs will distort the market as the market tries to recover.

      • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

        extra unemployment distorting things

        My wife is going to be making more on unemployment than she did while working, excepting the weeks with a ton of overtime.

        She has zero incentive to quickly find a new job when the fitness studios open back up. Especially because she’s paid by the head and they’re capping classes at 12 (used to be 36), which means that she won’t be making more than $25/hour for the foreseeable future.

      • DEG

        I was getting at the extra unemployment benefits. It wasn’t until I read your response that I realized my comment was vague.

        Incentives, how do they work?

      • R C Dean

        IDK, there is a lot of pent up demand and a significant amount of workers kept their job.

        Unemployment is sky high. Not that many people are breaking even or better on the enhanced benefits. Many people are burning through savings, I believe, or taking on debt.

        And businesses are starting to fail, so their workers didn’t keep their job.

        We don’t have a good idea yet what the knock-on effects are – the unpaid rent, the unpaid mortgages, the cancelled contracts. Those leverage and extend the contraction in employment.

        I’m hopeful that there can be a sharp recovery. But every week the lockdown goes on, the more unlikely that becomes. Llifting of the lockdown by some states early is helpful, but their economies will also be dragged down by the states that don’t lift it.

        Sure, people can ignore some of the lockdown orders – go to beaches, have parties, and whatnot. I don’t think businesses can do so, though. And that’s where the economic damage is – the closed businesses.

      • Idle Hands

        There is for sure a reckoning coming for many. I know someone who works for Catholic charities, it’s pretty bad for millions.

      • Florida Man

        I’m hoping people will be anxious to get back to work and businesses will open ASAP. If one state opens and nothing happens other states will be forced to follow suit. It’s the small businesses that may be gone for good.

      • DrOtto

        I currently have fewer customers, but selling more work per car. I don’t advertise and have very high customer loyalty, once the spigot is turned back on, I suspect I’ll be very busy, very quick.

      • DrOtto

        I currently have fewer customers, but selling more work per car. I don’t advertise and have very high customer loyalty, once the spigot is turned back on, I suspect I’ll be very busy, very quick.

      • DrOtto

        I currently have fewer customers, but selling more work per car. I don’t advertise and have very high customer loyalty, once the spigot is turned back on, I suspect I’ll be very busy, very quick.

      • UnCivilServant

        You have a lot of Squirrels too.

      • Ted S.

        His squirrels are *very* loyal.

  2. Florida Man

    May 8th is when surgery restrictions are supposed to be lifted in FL. I hope it’s across he board for all business.

    • Idle Hands

      probably you have a pretty sane gov. And the mouse is probably itching to go back to work.

  3. leon

    Now i may be skewed because i live in one of the 7 states that didn’t do Full on “Stay at Home” orders, but i don’t see violence occuring if this keeps apace into memorial day. I just see widespread “I’m over this shit” and ignoring of any of the “social distancing” recommendations.

    • The Other Kevin

      Here in Indiana I am seeing the panic subside and people relaxing the rules on their own. As long as there isn’t a major spike I think that will continue.

      • Sean

        I think the panic levels are dropping as more people realize the #’s are greatly skewed towards the nursing home populations.

      • Ted S.

        Yeah; this (apologies for the sign in the photo) was the front-page story in the local newspaper today when I was in the grocery store.

        That having been said, the thing that’s *really* pissing me off is that the self-checkout kiosks all say express self-checkout, and lots of people are using them with full carts and shit that has to be weighed and whatnot.

    • WTF

      I live in New Jersey, and while it is heavily Democrat, if Murphy pushes this bullshit into the summer tourist season and fucks people’s shore vacations the ass, as well as completely destroying the towns that rely on that business, there will likely be trouble. People are already getting pissed over the draconian measures he’s arbitrarily imposing.

  4. PieInTheSky

    The first path is a quick return to normalcy, – not gonna happen. they are pot committed

    • Rasilio

      I’m not sure it matters.

      I think there is a very real possibility that the economic damage is far more severe than ANY of us can currently comprehend.

      Take the food chain. That has been so badly disrupted that I can very easily see the prospect of actual hunger from lack of sufficient food in parts of the US and actual famines hit countries which have not seen a famine in multiple generations.

      I think the odds of a quick return to normalcy is a highly optimistic assumption.

  5. PieInTheSky

    For the first time since the compromise of 1850, we’re in a situation where the status quo has us primed for violence. – really? I doubt this whole thing is that unprecedented.

  6. Bob Boberson

    The dangerous part comes if this conflict aligns to the political spectrum. If we have Democrat governors spitefully enforcing lockdown rules against angry Republican constituents, we’re well and truly fucked.

    I think this is already happening. Questioning the constitutionality and ‘science’ behind the lockdown seem to be coming exclusively from the Right side of the spectrum and the cries of ‘don’t you morons understand everyone will die!!11!!’ and ‘science denier!!!’ is coming almost exclusively from the Left.

    My prediction is this: any state that is not single-party blue will erupt in violence if their lockdowns extend beyond memorial day.

    Civil Disobedience? Sure. Violence? I’m skeptical unless the Gov’s do something highly stupid and provocative like trying to break up a protest by calling the cops and national guard to move in and crack skulls. I find it more likely that business owners just say ‘fuck it,’ organize, and open en masse. The folks in Cali saying ‘screw you I’m going to the beach’ give me hope.

    • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

      unless the Gov’s do something highly stupid and provocative like trying to break up a protest by calling the cops and national guard to move in and crack skulls.

      Yep, that’s something I didn’t really highlight very well in the article. All the rhetoric and rules in the world mean nothing if theres no consequences to violating them. It’s the spiteful enforcement that is dangerous, not the rules themselves.

      • Bob Boberson

        I mean, I wouldn’t put it past them. The VA gun protests were extremely orderly and peaceful. The ‘Right’ demonstrates over and over that, like you said, they have the means for violence but not the inclination. Whereas any leftist protest is almost always accompanied by numerous acts of assault and vandalism.

    • R C Dean

      I don’t think even the governors are stupid enough to sic the National Guard on people gathering in public or in groups.

      I do think they are stupid enough to sic the cops on businesses that open before they are given permission. And that’s what matters.

    • Idle Hands

      i think if there’s a spark their could be a fire. Even a ton of apolitical People I know are quietly seething over this.

  7. Bobarian LMD

    I heard from a buddy who works in local law that our shitbird of a governor is looking to make it a class A misdemeanor to go outside without a mask. Our blue Governor in this very red state has some very effed up vision that could make KY a tinder box.

    • Drake

      Just pulling laws out of his ass without the legislature?

      • Bobarian LMD

        It sounds like he wants to torture an existing law on the books to fit his purpose.

        I don’t think he has the support in the legislature, but he definitely has a penchant toward the extreme side of ‘solutions’ under THE CRISIS!™

        He wanted to photograph and cite people for going to church.

      • WTF

        He thinks he’s been elected dictator. I am still amazed at how many people thought it was a good idea to vote for this idiot.

  8. kinnath

    Violence is not that hard to imagine.

    According to FBI statistics, the United States experienced more than 2,500 domestic bombings in just 18 months in 1971 and 1972, with virtually no solved crimes and barely any significant prosecutions.

    Some of us remember.

    • Drake

      Committed by leftists who were not very good at it…

      • kinnath

        Fortunately for everyone.

        This time around, the leftist are “the man” and the activists will have been prepping for conflict for decades.

      • Drake

        Heh – A lot of them are the guys who have been fighting actual wars for the neo-cons for the past 30 years. They know a thing or two about insurgencies and collapsing countries.

      • WTF

        That’s something that rarely enters the left’s calculations. The right is generally far more competent at violence, they just have a lot of restraint.

    • Idle Hands

      That’s correct. We are going to go back to the 70’s shortly. Cheap gas, inflation and cigarettes smoking to keep the rona away. Bigger tits though.

      • R C Dean

        Bigger tits though.

        And bigger asses. A lot bigger. Look at pics or movies from back then. The percentage of fat people is a lot lower.

  9. Drake

    Towards the end of both the Roman Republic and Western Roman Empire, they seem to jump from crisis to crisis. Many of the “crises” were political and / or self-inflicted and seem incredibly stupid when you read the accounts. In 408 the best general in the Roman army was arrested and executed when he fell out of favor with a political faction – while Goths were overrunning the western provinces.

    Historians will look at this as the same kind of idiocy – political maneuvering disguised as public health. And one more stupid step towards collapse.

    My gut says 2024-25 is going to be bad.

    • WTF

      The US does have a lot of parallels to Rome during the decline.

  10. UnCivilServant

    Is it just me or have the aspect ratios of the avatars gone wonky?

    • Sean

      Wonky.

    • Incentives Matter

      Seems fine on my end so far.

    • invisible finger

      I’m not seeing a problem with mine.

    • R C Dean

      Some of them, yes. WTF and Sean are vertical, and Drake is a little more horizontal.

      • UnCivilServant

        I’m starting to think those are the original aspect ratios of the images they used but they had previosuly been forced to square by the system.

      • Drake

        Are you saying General Albert Burkhalter is horizontally challenged?

  11. kinnath

    There won’t be any quick recovery.

    There will be a severe recession. It will take a decade to recover.

    Socially, the governors that locked down the hardest will not give u

    • kinnath

      To finish that thought . .

      The governors that locked down the hardest will not give up their new-found powers. There will be massive civil disobedience in many states, and there will be crackdowns in many jurisdictions.

      There will be violence.

      • PieInTheSky

        kinnath for some reason I never figured you to be such an optimist

      • kinnath

        We already have violent demonstrations in this country. The violence is perpetuated by the “gimme, gimme, gimme” crowd. These iPhone-toting cretins are in for a shock when real shortages of food happen over the next couple of months. Jurisdictions that tolerated antifa are fucked.

        The only uncertainty at this point, is when gun-toting hicks start shooting antifa and/or government agents.

      • Drake

        Luckily “gun-toting hicks” and antifa rarely cross paths. Now some Soros sponsored could decide to bus a bunch of antifa idiots into small city as a provocation,

      • Bob Boberson

        I disagree. Antifa doesn’t really hate the state, they love it. They are useful idiots used by the left to up ante of the culture war. They’ll turn out to throw bottles at deplora-nazi’s but they won’t be seen when the target of the protests is the government itself.

      • Chipwooder

        They love the state, so long as it’s their kind of state.

      • kinnath

        Sorry for being obscure.

        Antifa is already attacking “the fascists” that basically represent the productive members of society. These attacks include destroying property of small business owners. Antifa is going to lay the blame on shortages of food and lattes and the subsequent price increases on these productive members of society. I expect to see antifa rioting more and damaging businesses through out the summer.

        These productive members of society are also, of course, seeing their lives being destroyed by government response to COVID-19. When theses productive people find themselves in a vise between antifa and local jurisdictions, things will get ugly.

      • Idle Hands

        It won’t come to that. There isn’t just hicks and sbo affected by this. There’s real money being lost by real local political interests. Commercial realestate is taking a huge bath right now. The pols will be out on their ass just because of that.

  12. grrizzly

    Massachusetts: Governor Baker extends business closure order, stay-at-home advisory until May 18.

    Until today it was May 4.

    • PieInTheSky

      Make it June just to be safe.

    • DEG

      A little while ago, Sununu extended his state of emergency declaration but not the lockdown. I expect now that he has his marching orders from Baker, Sununu will extend the lockdown later today or tomorrow.

  13. AlmightyJB

    The media will continue controlling the narrative and censoring anyone who questions it.

    • Bob Boberson

      ^This. I don’t think I can loath the government any more than I do, and strangely I am not that outraged at them for COVID-19. It’s not that I don’t think their actions are contemptible, it’s just that they are completely predictable, none of it surprises me.

      All my outrage during this has been at the media and the Karens who eat this shit up. The baldfaced lies, carrying the state’s water and audacious hypocrisy I read in every CNN headline fill me to the brim with rage. And the unquestioning morons (the majority, sadly) who happily gobble whatever their latest narrative is (even if it contradicts last weeks narrative) make me want to spit bile.

      • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

        I’m beyond anger at even the media. They are who they have been for 25 (or more) years… the propaganda arm for left-wing authoritarianism.

        I think the level of acceptance by the general public and the vitriol thrown at people who dare question the narrative is a bit surprising.

      • Bob Boberson

        Thats just it. They don’t even makes a pretense of not loathing the average American. Its Marie Antoniette levels of condescension and hubris on a 24 hour loop.

      • Brochettaward

        The whole demeaning line about protests being about getting hair cuts kind of sums it up.

      • Idle Hands

        It’s the most flagrantly disgusting shit I’ve ever see. Especially the stark difference in coverage between 27 million not working and the Gov shutdown “crises” that lasted two weeks. These people hate the working class.

      • Gustave Lytton

        Aka paid vacation. No work = no pay.

      • Q Continuum

        The cheerleading for Communist control by the media is quite puzzling to me. If they had any concept of history at all, they would know that if their wet dreams actually came true, they, along with academics, would be the first ones lined up against the wall.

        If you help a regime get into power, you can also help force them out of power. That’s why they are always among the first exterminated, no matter how loyal they were during the revolution.

      • invisible finger

        They don’t care as long as the Fox talking heads die first.

      • Mad Scientist

        I don’t think the vitriol is surprising at all. The authoritarians want change, and this is change that gives them an excuse to exercise more control. Going back to the way things were means giving up that control, so they are vehemently opposed.

  14. Fatty Bolger

    As always, I think Ohio is a bellwether that can give us some idea of what to expect. The governor is having an absolute ball, and doesn’t want to give up his little power trip. But the protests, while small now, could become a huge problem for him. So he’s opening the state, but trying to pace it so the fun is extended, without inviting bigger protests. There’s no logic to the reopening plan, other than extending the “crisis” as long as politically feasible.

    • Drake

      Our Governor has a nice powerpoint slide with all the impossible to meet criteria necessary for us to regain our constitutional rights.

    • Idle Hands

      Well makes sense as there was no logic to their shutting down plan. Arbitrarily deciding come animals were more essential than others is the most flagrantly unconstitutional edict I’ve seen in my life.

    • Nephilium

      And still nothing about bars, restaurants, fitness centers, and other “non-essential” places.

  15. The Late P Brooks

    All that said, I still hope and believe that this will end with common sense taking hold, but in this time of derp, one never knows.

    I’m afraid that train has sailed.

  16. Mojeaux

    Dispatches from Flyover USA:

    Walmart had plenty of paper products. Almost every bag of flour and every single package of yeast was sold out. Now, I’m not sure about stocking flour (especially at that price–it was the Gold whatever pricey stuff) since I don’t like to bake and people can live without bread. I bought a bag of cornmeal (also the brand name, which was all they had), which is double the price of the flour, but I’m more likely to make corn bread because it involves less work.

    So I had about 20 lbs of flour already and I have yeast that I don’t know if it’s good or not, and now I have corn meal, but I’m not sure how far this upcoming food shortage is going to go. DO I need to buy a bunch of flour? SHOULD I? /rhetorical

    I don’t know. I just don’t know.

    • PieInTheSky

      Bring your own bread to the soup kitchen kind of a situation?

    • Rasilio

      My guess is grains and things based on them will not be in short supply since they are generally harvested in the fall/winter. Meats, Fruits, and Veggies however are likely to be in short supply for a while with fruits and veggies becoming more generally available later in summer. Meat supplies will not likely recover for at least a year or more.

    • Shirley Knott

      You might want to consider making a batch of sourdough starter if yeast is scarce.

      • PieInTheSky

        or start home brewing and have plenty yeast

      • Mojeaux

        I thought about that. I just hate baking bread so much.

        Speaking of starter, there is an interesting plot point with starter in the book Cinnamon & Gunpowder. Really fun read.

      • Shirley Knott

        Sourdough biscuits, pancakes, and waffles are awesome. Much easier than bread, and can do most of the jobs bread does. (Gods I miss bread. IBS took that away from me.)

  17. Mojeaux

    Derp v survival.

    At what point does survival override the derp?

    • PieInTheSky

      most are not cut out for survival

    • Bob Boberson

      It depends on if you are talking about individuals or in the collective sense.

      Collectively? Never. We are collectively so removed from the necessity that drives survival the culture and possibly society at large will derp themselves right into the grave.

      Individually? There are plenty of individuals out there capable of survival and inclined toward it. They’ve already rejected the derp. The question will be, are you well situated resource wise and/or lucky enough to be in a situation to capitalize on their value.

    • Idle Hands

      It doesn’t by the time this would lead to real world empty shelves and hunger consequences it would be too late apparently from reading social media. I’m becoming a prepper after this shit.

      • Mojeaux

        I “became a prepper” in 2008 because I was reading ZeroHedge and getting panicked. Don’t prep while panicked. Anyway, I made a lot of stupid buying decisions because I really didn’t know where to start and there was total information overload.

        And even though I knew better, I panic-bought silver and took a bath.

        Anyway, one day, I blocked ZeroHedge from myself and stopped spending money “prepping” because I was working myself up into a state of constant hypervigilence and “today is gonna be the EOTWAWKI!!!”—that never came. It was not good for my mental health or digestive system.

        So I have not prepped. I even sold my guns because one of them reminded me of my stupidity from that time.

        I do not feel panic, but I bought a freezer and stocked it to the brim, so I feel mostly secure, for now. I am a little twitchy that I DON’T have flour. I had been told during the Great Mojo Panic of 2008 to have lots of toilet paper. Didn’t have that, either.

        I feel like this is a dry run so that when this is over with I will have clarity as to what to prep and what tools I need to have and what skills I need to master or at least be able to stumble along.

        The one thing I am keenly aware that we do not have is LifeStraw, which I am going to buy soon. If water is scarce … hoo boy.

      • Bob Boberson

        IMHO the most important thing you can prep is yourself. Invest the time and resources into yourself where you have the body, mind and skills to do something useful in the event of calamity. Able bodied people who know how to create things of value have a much better chance of survival than the dude with the most robust bomb shelter.

      • Bob Boberson

        Come to think of it there is an economic lesson to be learned here that I’m ill equipped to explain. The people who have sought to hunker down and live independently from other human beings almost always failed. See Chris McCandless, the Mad Trapper of Rat River, the Mountain Men from “Incident at Big Sky,” the list goes on and on……and most of the people we think of as self-reliant had vast social networks and interdependencies on other humans (ie the real Mountain Men who required trade with indians, traders from MO and each other)

        In a way it’s sort of like attempting to centrally plan your own life and it doesn’t work. We can’t anticipate every need we will have and at some point access to markets becomes a requirement if we want to do anything other than “survive”……a prospect that is precarious at best anyway without the goods offered by other people.

      • Mojeaux

        That interdependence is one reason Imstick with my church. My congregation just sent out speadsheets to inventory stock, ammo, skills, tools, food, emergency prep, and heavy machinery.

        As I was filling it out, I was really rather irritated with myself that I couldn’t answer better.

        72-hr kit, yes; food for 2 weeks, yes; food for a year, no
        water purification: tablets
        water: a couple of cases of bottled water and four 5-gallon jugs for our cooler—but we drink 2 of those a week.

      • Dr. Fronkensteen

        Maciavelli?

        “The best fortress in the world is simply to be loved by the people, because no fortress will save you if the people hate you. Once the people take up arms against you, there will be no shortage of outsiders eager to come to their aid.”

        He basically claims that fortresses separate you from others. Whereas you want to be in contact with the people who can overwhelm your fortresses. (Think Bastille) Humans are social animals and we do better in cooperation with others. I’m posting this even though I may be reaching.

      • Bob Boberson

        I wasn’t really thinking about that in the context of ‘ruling’ but that makes sense. The point i driving at is everyone thinks ‘survival’ means ‘Mad Max’ you-against-the-world type of scenario. It’s a Hobbesian idea that never plays out in real life. I think its safe to claim that we survive by cooperation much more effectively.

      • Dr. Fronkensteen

        So prepping yourself but also in the context of a community. Huh, I guess the Mormons got this one right.

      • Mojeaux

        This was part of my information overload in 2008.

        Some people were advocating staying behind locked doors with your trip wires and MacGyver booby traps at the ready, sitting in front of your door with your shotgun aimed at it in case a bunch of people cottoned to the fact that you have Stuff and are willing to loot you to get it. (You should see the Pinterest boards on this subject.)

        Then there’s my church and it’s always been an individual effort with an eye toward it becoming a communal one if absolutely necessary.

        Well, which one is it? Are people going to loot me or are they going to barter/share/do business with me?

  18. Chipwooder

    Since this site was founded, whenever we’ve mused about the possibility of civil unrest and violence, I’ve always said that it remained highly unlikely under current conditions because, no matter how much politically-based anger there might be on both the left and right extremes, Americans on the whole are too comfortable in their lives to risk everything they have in pursuit of violent struggle.

    WuFlu and the associated power grabs may change that calculus. Our beloved leaders, by and large, seem determined to usher us into an economic depression. We already have many millions newly unemployed – what happens if they remain unemployed over the long term? What happens if the economy doesn’t quickly spring back to life over the next year or two? I don’t know, but I do think it would create a large group of desperate, angry people who might feel that they no longer have much to lose.

    • Idle Hands

      There doesn’t need to be large amounts of angry people to have civil unrest. I know it’s not an example the media likes to bring up but I think any civil unrest in this country looks more like the Oklahoma city bombing or the Congressional baseball practice than any kind of pissed off mob. But than again maybe we get more BLM vs bundy standoffs after the municipalities go to strip mall hat and hand with fuck you pay me attitudes after driving the retail and brick and mortors out of business.

  19. Pope Jimbo

    Scott Johnson, PowerLine blogger, asked a good question yesterday. Kevin Roch – health care skeptic – had a good take on the answer.

    The question:

    Referring to the 286 total deaths to date, I note that every decedent under age 70 has died in long-term care or similar setting. The youngest person to die outside long-term care was in his 70’s. Why is it necessary to close the schools and shut down the state to protect the at-risk population?

    You will have to read the linked article for the weasely response from the State’s press flack. I knew geezers in the homes were getting hit hard, but the stat that the youngest person outside a long-term care facility was 70 years-old is amazing.

    I also know the models that the Minnesoda government used when deciding on the lockdown showed no difference between a general lockdown and a lockdown of only seniors.

    If the general population starts figuring shit like this out, I can see some Govs in big trouble.

    • Chipwooder

      I haven’t kept up with the most recent numbers, but as of a couple of weeks ago over half of the Wu Flu outbreaks in Virginia were in nursing homes/assisted living/whatever facilities.

      • Pope Jimbo

        85% of our fatalities have been in long-term care facilities here in Minnesoda.

      • Idle Hands

        Still is. The largest single deadliest outbreak in the country was in a VA nursing home. What happened in the nursing homes is a direct result of gov policy and the reason why Coonman won’t share the data on the breakdown of where and who has died from this. It should be a massive scandle but the media won’t cover it.

      • Chipwooder

        I grew up across the street from that particular nursing home, actually. It was Cambridge Manor back then. Used to see the inmates residents wandering around our street sometimes.

        Quite a few things about Coonman should be a massive scandal, but the press runs cover for that sonofabitch like no one this side of Chocolate Nixon himself.

  20. The Late P Brooks

    I find it more likely that business owners just say ‘fuck it,’ organize, and open en masse. The folks in Cali saying ‘screw you I’m going to the beach’ give me hope.

    There is not, so far as I know, a “going to the beach” license. Business owners who rightly fear the prospect of ruinous fines and other punishment for breaking the quarantine are not so likely to just throw open their doors.

    • Bob Boberson

      Of course. That’s why I think it’s contingent on them organizing. If they declare a state-wide or even national “end the lock-down day” there is no way the government can continue to enforce it. There aren’t enough jails or courts for them to fine and arrest everyone.

  21. Brochettaward

    My list of demands now sits at three! Three is the number of days I have waited for my demands to be me!. If these demands are not met by tomorrow, the number will grow from three to four! You have been warned!

    1. I demand the ability to post pictures so that I may post pictures of whatever I want in my comments!
    2. I demand an edit button so I may edit posts!
    3. I demand the ability to change my username!

    • Scruffy Nerfherder

      I don’t know this guy. Never seen him before or heard his name uttered.

    • UnCivilServant

      We will continue to ignore your demands until the demands cease.

    • Jarflax

      I think the problem you are having is a failure of translation. All three of your demands really boil down to a request for a cat butt.

    • PieInTheSky

      Fortunately May 1 is a public holiday

      • PieInTheSky

        lame

      • Idle Hands

        Everyday is a holiday when you’re unemployed.

      • Drake

        You guys kept your commie holidays?

    • PieInTheSky

      Also I need to ask: have you checked that website is not run by those weird right wing gun nuts brothers? I think it need a buzzfeed exeposé or two

  22. Scruffy Nerfherder

    The deflationary cycle is not over.

    The oil market disruption alone would have been enough to cause a recession.

    What follows will be stagflation, probably 10-20% inflation rate.

    It’s a fucking mess. The misallocation of capital caused by the interventions is massive on top of the already massive misallocations of capital caused by decades of super low, historically unprecedented interest rates.

    I predict that before this shit is over, we will be at war somewhere (else). Desperation is building in Saudi Arabia, Iran, China, Russia, etc… either from political uncertainty or deflationary pressures on commodities.

    • Idle Hands

      If we don’t get into a hot war somewhere I’d be shocked.

      • Bobarian LMD

        What better way to fix the economy!

        -Pauly Krugnutz

  23. Q Continuum

    My feeling on this is that it’s a long time coming. I don’t think there will be widespread and/or organized violence, however some kind of drastic realignment or sea change was overdue. The level of polarization in this country leading up to this was at a breaking point and something had to give. What exactly that means long term I don’t know but I feel this is just the beginning.

    • PieInTheSky

      What exactly that means long term – not much i would say. i doubt wu flu will radically change the course of human affairs

      • Q Continuum

        I don’t think the virus will change anything really. It’s the government’s response and the realigning that is likely to happen politically. Such a realignment was already well underway with Trump’s election. It will accelerated and become cataclysmic.

        That is specific to the US; I have no idea what it means elsewhere.

    • R C Dean

      I don’t think there will be widespread and/or organized violence, however some kind of drastic realignment or sea change was overdue.

      I think whether the resistance to the drastic realignment will be strong enough to result in violence is very much an open question. A whole lotta rice bowls aren’t just going to be tipped over, they are going to be smashed and the shards thrown out the window.

  24. The Late P Brooks

    Long term effects? Who had time to think about that?

    [insert human interest sob story about “My friends the funky cool shopkeepers”]

    They aren’t wealthy, but they’ve got five employees and, despite Amazon and Zappos, the store has managed to stay open for 15 years. In that time, it’s become more than just a place to buy shoes; they’ve made it into one of those “third spaces” urban planners talk about – where people meet up and form community of their own. They organize events and races and group runs where people of all abilities run together and then go out for drinks. In fact, that’s how my friend and her husband met: She was new to town (and running) and he stayed at the back of the pack just to talk.

    ——-

    I keep wondering what cities and towns across the US will look if the quarantine goes on much longer. Maybe the post-Covid future will look like the present, when you can order nearly anything with two-day delivery but can’t set foot into most shops. In Seattle – the city where I worked until I, too, was laid off – normally bustling neighborhoods look almost abandoned. A few eateries are open for takeout, but more are boarded up to keep potential looters out. Some business owners have hired artists to decorate their new plywood fronts with uplifting slogans – “This too shall pass,” “All you need is love … and toilet paper” – but it doesn’t do much to alleviate the sense of disaster.

    Without functional bailouts of small businesses, this pandemic and the resulting economic crash could be the end of cities and towns as we know them. The bars, restaurants, retailers, music venues, art spaces, theatres and coffee shops that make cities feel vibrant will probably go belly-up (though Starbucks will probably be just fine). A few “essential” corporations will prosper but that’s the exception. Even hospitals are now going under. Perhaps Amazon will buy up storefronts and install sterile, cashier-less grocery stores and retailers where no one actually interacts. Post-pandemic, some people might actually prefer it.

    While most of us humans will survive the virus, without relief, small businesses may very well not. The federal government could, in theory, stop this slide into ruin, but that would require a level of investment and competence not seen in years. In the meantime, as my friend waits for the quarantine to lift, she’s quickly losing hope that they will come out the other side of this crisis intact.

    “Even when stores are open, why would people come back?” she asked me. “They’re scared. I heard Jeff Bezos made $24bn since the shutdown started. Maybe he’ll buy us out.”

    Something something easily foreseeable consequences…

    Also, Jeff Bezos is the Devil incarnate!

    • Gustave Lytton

      A few “essential” corporations will prosper but that’s the exception

      Maybe. Maybe not. “Essential” businesses rely on “non-essential” businesses and consumers employed by “non-essential” businesses. Electric companies and internet providers cannot subsist entirely on essential businesses. That pie just isn’t big enough to cover all of the costs and generate an acceptable return to investors.

      Even governments are starting to wake up to the pickle they’ve dug themselves into. “Drastic, deep” cuts of 20% even. ? At some point collective bargaining is either going to lower wages for public employees or it will be eliminated by state governments if this keeps up. Some are already at the breaking point on taxes (how many jurisdictions lowered their rates when SLT deductions were curtailed?).

    • JaimeRoberto Delecto

      On the one hand, Bezos built a company that has handled the situation well by allowing people to order goods for home delivery. Good for him for reaping the rewards.

      On the other hand, he also owns WaPo which helps stir up the panic which keeps many of his competitors shut down. Screw that guy.

    • R C Dean

      The federal government could, in theory, stop this slide into ruin, but that would require a level of investment and competence not seen in years.

      Always with the “gimme muneez”.

      Right now, the lockdown is being heavily rewarded by the feds, to the tune of trillions of dollars. Turn off that spigot, and the lockdown comes to an end. Of course, its damage will persist.

  25. The Late P Brooks

    And my big fear is that the freshly disillusioned new-urbanist rats will flee the cities em masse, and a lot of them will build nests in my neck of the woods.

    • PieInTheSky

      shoot at em to scare em off

    • Chipwooder

      A very legit fear, IMO. A new wave of locusts to spread their disastrous preferred policies in new places.

  26. The Late P Brooks

    Of course. That’s why I think it’s contingent on them organizing. If they declare a state-wide or even national “end the lock-down day” there is no way the government can continue to enforce it. There aren’t enough jails or courts for them to fine and arrest everyone.

    I don’t see any evidence that the Chamber of Commerce or their ilk have sufficient backbone to call a come-to-Jesus meeting with the governors. I’d love to be proven wrong.

    I also have not seen evidence of pushback, around here. Maybe I’m just out of the loop.

    If I were a business owner shut down by this, there would be a giant “Closed, by order of the Gestapo” sign in the front window.

    • DEG

      I don’t see any evidence that the Chamber of Commerce or their ilk have sufficient backbone to call a come-to-Jesus meeting with the governors. I’d love to be proven wrong.

      In NH, heads of industry are on Sununu’s reopening task force (whatever the fuck it’s called).

      My impression of reading their presentations but not the meeting transcripts: Sununu is doing a wonderful job. Here’s how we want to reopen. Ignore that some of our proposals will cause more economic pain.

  27. The Late P Brooks

    Instead of pushback, I see what looks like, “He only beats me because he cares so much. I need to do better, and try not to be such a disappointment to him.”

    • Q Continuum

      Or: “If I’m good, maybe Mommy will unground me sooner so I can see my friends!”

    • Lackadaisical

      yup, as apocalyptic as this post is, it is actually optimistic. Much more likely that our future is one of grim acceptance by the few and cheering of the many as they lower freedom into it’s long-prepared grave.

  28. kinnath

    The States Are Toast

    The numbers are gruesome. Gov. Andrew Cuomo estimated that New York would need to cut education and other areas by as much as 20 percent. Michigan is expected to lose between $1 billion and $3 billion by this June, and then between another $1 billion and $4 billion next fiscal year. And this doesn’t count the budget carnage and already mounting layoffs we see at the municipal, county, school district, and public authority level. Illinois’ state Senate leader earlier this month asked Congress for a $41 billion bailout.

    With any luck, the turtle will drive the states into bankruptcy.

    Even, if the feds bail out the states, there will be major disruption to public services and entitlements.

    • Idle Hands

      It would be funny if it wasn’t happening to us everywhere. But even so you can’t help but laugh at the absurdity of what’s happening.

      • kinnath

        Iowa has a balanced budget.

        Iowa will be reopening many businesses at half capacity in 77 or 99 counties next Monday.

        The big blue states will suck Iowa dry if the Feds bail them out.

      • Scruffy Nerfherder

        ^^^This^^^

        It’s completely unfair to the states that haven’t fucked their taxpayers for the benefit of the public employee unions. Let them choke on their empty promises.

    • invisible finger

      “there will be major disruption to public services and entitlements.”

      And what’s the downside?

      • Idle Hands

        Any business’s that are left are going to get slammed with taxes.

      • kinnath

        The subject at had is possible civic unrest accompanied with violence.

        One argument is that there will be little unrest, because much of the county is sitting fat, dumb, and happy while on the dole.

        These people are going to be affected by the lockdown. Soon.

      • invisible finger

        Certain parts of town have civic unrest and violence every day and the state doesn’t give a shit. Oftentimes its the state on the giving end.

      • kinnath

        Interesting point. So what is the difference between “civic unrest” and general “lawlessnes”? Clearly, there are some urban areas that have no-go zones for the police . In this places, criminals prey on the week. Gangs do what ever the please. And yet, I tend to think of civil unrest as the mob turning its anger on the institutions that are supposed to be running the world. I don’t think the high-crime areas of cities constitute civic unrest.

      • invisible finger

        “So what is the difference between “civic unrest” and general “lawlessness”?

        The institutions’ response (or lack thereof).

      • Bobarian LMD

        “So what is the difference between “civic unrest” and general “lawlessness”?

        The victim.

    • JaimeRoberto Delecto

      I wonder if the state worshipers who support the endless shutdown realize that the state won’t be getting tax revenue needed to support the things they like.

      • invisible finger

        No biggie, they’ll just define some new untermensch and seize whatever wealth they say they need. Hitler is only demonized for his lack of subtlety.

      • Mad Scientist

        Never fear. The police and fire and hospital budgets will be cut first so that the voters will support a tax increase.

    • Certified Public Asshat

      Related, fun with maps

    • R C Dean

      New York would need to cut education and other areas by as much as 20 percent

      If they did it right, they could actually improve education and other services by directing the cuts at administrative deadwood and their self-licking ice cream cones.

      Confident prediction – no matter how deep the cuts, the many Departments of Diversity and Inclusion will be untouched.

    • Ted S.

      With any luck, the turtle will drive the states into bankruptcy.

      I’m increasingly to the point that I want to see the pension funds not get bailed out in bankruptcy and the state employees starving and living under bridges.

  29. The Late P Brooks

    Mojeaux- a friend was telling me she found a recipe for “no kneading” bread. Said it worked great. Would that reduce your aversion to breadmaking?

  30. Oy the Billy-Bumbler

    Here is a hospital conspiracy theory I have been pondering. Let’s say half of the hospitals in the US are laying off staff and struggling financially. If those hospitals all looked for an “investor” to come and save the day, what is the only institution with pockets deep enough to step up? The FedGov. At that point you are a long way towards having a National Health Service.

    • Idle Hands

      I don’t think there is any conspiracy here. Just retarded gov and hysterical mobs of voters.

      • Drake

        They aren’t smart enough to plan that conspiracy, they are cunning enough to use the opportunity now that it has presented itself.

      • Gustave Lytton

        ^^^

      • JaimeRoberto Delecto

        That’s how I look at most “conspiracies”. People aren’t smart enough and competent enough to plan and control how these things go and keep it secret. Too many variables and too many loose lips. However, there are always people looking to take advantage of a situation.

    • R C Dean

      Let’s say half of the hospitals in the US are laying off staff and struggling financially.

      Make that 90% or more.

      And its not just hospitals. Its the entire healthcare system – physician practices, ASCs, imaging centers, all of it. Punchline – the infectious disease practice that works with my system is furloughing staff. Think about that for a minute.

      So, yeah, this is setting up nicely for a takeover of the entire healthcare system by the feds. Its remarkable, now that you mention it, that I haven’t seen any of the usual suspects proposing just that.

    • Lackadaisical

      that’s not called queefing?

      • Bobarian LMD

        Clams are entirely different than oysters.

    • Scruffy Nerfherder

      OFFS, oysters were far far far more prevalent a century and a half ago. We don’t have anywhere near the population of them now due to overfishing and pollution.

      You can’t win with these assholes unless you advocate for human extinction.

    • Brochettaward

      He has the look of an old man who just had his pudding cup taken away until he takes his meds.

    • Fatty Bolger

      Holy shit. What’s the end game here? Get him elected, then resign for health reasons? Have his handlers (or his wife?) calling the shots for a puppet president?

    • JaimeRoberto Delecto

      He couldn’t even smile on cue.

  31. Not Adahn

    I got this IM from one of my junion engineers:

    Hi, I’m working on MSA for the 1,2,4 triazole. I have the cal curve now, but I am seeing two different ways to solve for concentration online. One method said solve for x-intercept (this gives a negative value though). The other method says plug in absorbance value for 0ppm std for y, and then solve for x.
    Which one is correct?

    What DO they teach in school nowadays?

    • Fatty Bolger

      Oh you know, diversity, intersectionality, socialism. All the important stuff.

    • Gustave Lytton

      How to google answers apparently.

    • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

      Not knowing the first thing about what the hell youre talking about, I’m already highly skeptical of the x-intercept method.

      I’m reminded of the axis axiom: “Know your axes”

      • Not Adahn

        the x-intercept is where y = 0.

      • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

        I found it highly unlikely that the concentration of some substance would be the dependent variable in a test. The fact that it was negative added to that suspicion.

        I could obviously be quite wrong given the talking out my ass and all.

      • Scruffy Nerfherder

        Negative concentrations occur when you successfully extract blood from a stone.

      • Bobarian LMD

        Just tell him to solve for y.

    • Scruffy Nerfherder

      First off, you never approach a senior engineer with an either/or question like that unless you want to get your ass handed to you.

      Second, proper development of technical resources is not taught in school, at least not any that I’m aware of. Wikipedia is probably what most new engineers default to in a pinch.

  32. wdalasio

    A woman friend of my wife’s posted a comment that, of course, she doesn’t work as hard as a man. She get’s it right the first time.

    My response: “Would it be really rude of me to rate this comment 67% right?”

    • Bobarian LMD

      $.70 on the dollar.

  33. Tundra

    Thanks, trashy!

    Without focus, the protests will fizzle and fall apart.

    The Tea Party says hi!

    I was chatting with a buddy who has clearly been red-pilled by all this. He is convinced our fuckwit governor is going to match the ‘sconnie idiot and try to lock down longer. And he’s righteously angry.

    I think there are a lot of people out there like him.

    I’m not convinced our idiot is dumb enough to try it, though. Instead, I think he’s more likely to Introduce a Texas-style reopening. I noticed that the media here are finally admitting that the problems exist mainly in the fucking nursing homes.

    Maybe more of my fellow Minnesotans will start asking why the fuck we are quarantining healthy, low risk people.

    And maybe monkeys will fly out of my butt…

    I sincerely hope these fools back down and declare victory. I’m not in the mood for violence.

  34. kinnath

    First, you need to get him out in the open.

    Hillary Clinton will endorse Joe Biden’s presidential candidacy on Tuesday, according to a Democrat who requested anonymity to discuss the plan.

    Give it up for Joe “Grab’em-By-The-Pussy” Biden, the next prominent white guy that didn’t kill himself.

    • invisible finger

      So you’re saying Trump plagiarized from Biden.

      • kinnath

        Well, Trump is a braggart. Whether or not he grabbed an unwilling pussy remains unverified.

        Biden clearly falls into the camp of the good guys in public that abuse women in private.

      • RAHeinlein

        Yes, there is a difference between playboy and perv.

      • JaimeRoberto Delecto

        Yup. Trump said the rich and famous *can* grab ’em by the pussy. He didn’t say that he’s done it. It’s not a big leap in logic to think he has, it wouldn’t surprise me if he has, but that isn’t what he said. Furthermore, nobody should be shocked that there are women who will let the rich and famous grab them. Groupies are a thing. The hyperventilation about the comment was always ridiculous.

      • Bob Boberson

        Are you suggesting at some point in history womynz have voluntarily used sex to get what they want??!

        While I never.

      • Bobarian LMD

        Sometimes what they want is sex.

    • Chipwooder

      Ah, another portrait of courage like Obama – endorse Slow Joe once there is literally no one else left in the race.

      • Bobarian LMD

        She’s looking for that VP nod.

        And Joe might be senile enough to not recognize the danger in that offer.

  35. Scruffy Nerfherder

    Looks like my PPP “loan” was approved. Hopefully funded by the end of the week.

    I feel a little like Viktor Komarovsky.

    • RAHeinlein

      Great news – hope the same for other Glibs who applied.

  36. hayeksplosives

    The natives are definitely restless. Even in true blue California there are large pockets of red., and lots of small business owners who are caring about politics for the first time, now that the govt had practically padlocked their shop doors.

    That said, even some of my moderate to conservative friends on Facebook keep posting about saving one life and how we can’t be irresponsible and go back to life as normal because some octogenarian might pop off. Mostly women, it pains me to admit, are aiming at the feels.

    • Tundra

      My wife, god love her, just said: “Open everything. Right now. People should be able to make their own choices in how they respond to the risks.”

  37. hayeksplosives

    The natives are definitely restless. Even in true blue California there are large pockets of red., and lots of small business owners who are caring about politics for the first time, now that the govt had practically padlocked their shop doors.

    That said, even some of my moderate to conservative friends on Facebook keep posting about saving one life and how we can’t be irresponsible and go back to life as normal because some octogenarian might pop off. Mostly women, it pains me to admit, are aiming at the feels.

    • invisible finger

      If it kills just one squirrel…

      • hayeksplosives

        The squirrels are restless too!

    • Mojeaux

      Well, there’s a reason we’re unicorns.

      • hayeksplosives

        Amen, sistah!

      • Bobarian LMD

        Is it because you have horns?

  38. grrizzly

    I’ve been having a bear watching cam from Transylvania on the TV in my home office since yesterday. Very relaxing. Should have started it earlier.

    • Tundra

      Link? That sounds pleasant.

    • Bobarian LMD

      Is this a gay thing?

      They’ve shut off youtube here at work for us brave few.

      • grrizzly

        No. A brown bear in a Romanian forest.

  39. Brawndo

    Excellent write up. This matches what I’ve been feeling recently, thank you for putting it into words. One thing I predict will happen is a second wave of infections. Considering the death and destruction of this virus is overblown, a second wave won’t actually do much (unless the hospitals do get overwhelmed this time since a lot of medical workers have been laid off), but you just know that the governors are going to use it to shut everything down again, and their constituents will largely ask for it because the media will continue to overhype the danger.

    • Bob Boberson

      I’ve been seeing lots of squawking about the ‘second curve’ on social media. It’s the pretext for continuing the lock-downs indefinitely. At this point I think COVID-19 is demonstrably less dangerous than the bill of goods we were sold, I’m highly skeptical that the phantom second curve has any actual effect on anything other than being the pretext for then next media freakout and government power grab.

      • invisible finger

        Even in countries where there was a “second wave” it was almost always in a different metro. Singapore might be the exception, but even then it’s probably just in a different nursing home rather than a second wave in the same one.

      • Brawndo

        My concern with the second wave is all these people that have been shut in for months now are going to have a very fucked up immune system. Again, it won’t be as devastating as the media makes it out to be, but I’m convinced it will happen.

      • Bob Boberson

        The thing is I’m no longer (and was never very) convinced that social distancing and self isolation makes a bit of difference. If vulnerable people voluntarily self-isolate, they’ll be ok. Working, able bodied people don’t need to and we’ve been passing it back and forth to each other at the grocery store all along.

    • hayeksplosives

      Many lessons can be learned from this when / if the dust settles.

      New York hospitals working at capacity and borrowing med staff from other stares.

      California closing while floors, wings, and laying off hospital staff because not enough cohoe and too much fear keeping the “usual” case load hiding at home.

      I’d love a well thought out set of studies on this and other lessons learned. But I don’t really expect objective analysis.

      • R C Dean

        Confident prediction: None of the People Who Matter will learn a goddamn thing from this.

      • Incentives Matter

        Sadly, yes.

    • R C Dean

      I don’t think a second wave in May or June is anything to worry about, because that’s outside the window when viruses like this do well.

      Now, stacking a second wave on the usual flu season this fall could be bad. But at that point, the economy will be so thoroughly and obviously fucked that I don’t think they will dare try another shutdown.

  40. mikey

    Just came in from attackng the weeds that have started growing in the cracks between the patio paving stones. Weed whacker started on the first pull! Didn’t even clear out the old gas from last year.
    Stihl or GTFO

    • Tundra

      Yes. Although my Echo trimmer has been crazy good as well.

  41. RAHeinlein

    Another great article, Trash – thanks! I’m optimistic for scenario 1 given the global currency printing presses on overtime.

    Congratulation on selling your home so quickly – hopefully a buyer’s market at the new destination!

    • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

      Thank you! And thanks to Brooks below!

      Yep, accepted the offer last night. Asking price minus $10k in concessions, which means we made $85k in equity over 3 years. Some because of the market, some because of our improvements.

      We’re not buying in Dallas yet. We’re gonna rent for a couple years and use the equity to pay off all of our debts. Assuming all goes as planned, we’ll have just the right amount of cash to get to Dallas, pay off all the debts, and set aside a 6 month E-fund. Can’t complain one bit about that.

      • Shirley Knott

        Congratulations!

      • DEG

        Congratulations!

      • R C Dean

        We’re gonna rent for a couple years and use the equity to pay off all of our debts.

        I like this plan.

  42. The Late P Brooks

    I’ve been having a bear watching cam from Transylvania on the TV in my home office since yesterday.

    Is the one on Fire Island out of service?

    • Not Adahn

      There’s this old commie that runs a string of NPR stations around here. He talks about how when he was young he went to Fire Island to pick up girls.

  43. dbleagle

    I saw a scary photo yesterday of an empty railyard near Dallas. Normally it would be a sea of railroad cars being remade into trains heading east, west and north. The yard was empty except for a smattering of empty coal cars. The economy is much worse off than the MSM is admitting. People can only see their little corner, but as the view opens with each successive layoff or business failure people will begin to question more and more what is being done to them.

    As of this morning Hawaii has had 14 total Kung Flu deaths, under 100 active cases, and unemployment officially at 40+%.

    • Scruffy Nerfherder

      Cass Freight Index is down 10% from last year (March), April is probably worse.

    • hayeksplosives

      That’s a terrible employment rate for a state with few cases!!

    • Animal

      So, book my vacation now?

    • Dry_Gin_Wet_Farts

      Trucker here. Freight has evaporated. The company I run for is all owner operators. Half of them are sitting at home. The other half are sitting a lot in truck stops, waiting for a load. The rates have dropped to the point many have parked their trucks. It just doesn’t make financial sense to run any longer. The people who are pushing the lock downs don’t have a clue what this has done to the economy… yet. The damage is much greater than most people realize.

    • invisible finger

      Why is it scary? UP is building another yard in the area, they might be in a transition period or some trains got re-routed due to weather, capital projects, etc. Got a link?

  44. The Late P Brooks

    Congratulation on selling your home so quickly

    There’s a deal? I missed that. Saw you were expecting an offer, but not the rest.

    Congrats!

  45. DEG

    Somewhat OT and maybe drugs will fall out of my ass: Virginia gun ranges can reopen

    A Virginia gun range can remain open, despite Gov. Ralph Northam’s order closing nonessential businesses throughout the state in response to the coronavirus pandemic, a state judge ruled Monday.

    In a March executive order, Northam had included indoor shooting ranges among the businesses to be temporarily shuttered to stop the spread of COVID-19. In response, the shooting range SafeSide sued, asking a court to block the order. Judge F. Patrick Yeatts granted the request, prohibiting law enforcement from blocking citizens’ access to the gun range.

    Northam lacks the authority to close gun ranges, Yeatts said, because of a state statute, modeled on the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, giving citizens the right to bear arms. “During an emergency, the governor is given great deference, but [the statute] specifically limits his authority in relation to the right to keep and bear arms,” Yeatts wrote.

    • ron73440

      the ruling only applies to the Lynchburg gun range — but the reasoning could apply to any subsequent lawsuits brought by other gun ranges in the state.

      Hopefully the others will start suing.

      Is this one of those rulings that only make sense if your thinking abilities have been impaired by being a judge?

      Does it only apply to the one because of how they worded their complaint, or the judge had to admit it was overstepping, but didn’t want to allow others to open?

      • Chipwooder

        Maybe some law-talkin’ guy can explain to me why this ruling only applies to the one range in Lynchburg. If he doesn’t have the authority to close one down, then he doesn’t have the authority to close any of them down, right?

      • R C Dean

        No clue. Sounds like the order was illegal in its entirety, not just as applied to the one range.

      • R C Dean

        The bad news: the governor’s authority is limited by a statute. I can guarantee you the rabidly anti-gun VA legislature will take care of that at the earliest opportunity.

      • Scruffy Nerfherder

        That’s called a judge who kind of wants to do the right thing but is too chickenshit to call out the entirety of the state government onto the carpet.

      • Lady Z

        I may be showing my ignorance here, but could a more sweeping decision make overturn on appeal more likely?

  46. wdalasio

    On a lighter note, I found this imitation of Jordan Peterson’s hypothetical take on the virus and lockdowns:

    It’s kind of like, you know, say the virus is a dragon in the abyss. And you know this dragon is dangerous, but you don’t know *how* dangerous because it’s shrouded in darkness. What can you bloody do?! Well, it’s like first: you shine a light on it! Even if you can only see the head, at least you bloody well know a bit of what this beast looks like. And once you see the head, then maybe you can ask ‘is it worth taking out my sword and fighting this thing head on and getting it over with, or do I need to stay back for a bit more?” But see, the problem is, you’re hanging from a rope in the dragon’s lair, and you don’t know how much longer that rope will hold. If you hang on too long, it might break, and there goes western civilization! It’s like, it’s bloody difficult, man.

    • The Hyperbole

      I didn’t know canucks said “bloody”, I thought that was mostly limeys.

      • Incentives Matter

        Could be a Brit transplant. I’ve noticed a surprisingly large number of Brit expats in my travels throughout Western Canada in recent years. And a number of them had joined the police force. Bit weird.

      • Chipwooder

        I’ve noticed more than a few would-be urban sophisticate types using it in the US, because to a certain kind of person anything associated with the UK has a sheen of class and sophistication.

    • Lady Z

      I read that in his voice. Hope he’s doing ok.

    • Scruffy Nerfherder

      And a bunch of dulcimers

    • Incentives Matter

      Oh man. I would sooooooo love to do some bidding — but I’m in Canada, and the shipping charges alone would kill me.

  47. ron73440

    Two of the office ladies just had a conversation about Gov Klansman, and he “better not open up like those stupid states”.

    I’m not saying anything, I’m not saying anything, I’m not saying anything, I’m not saying anything.

    I remember the good old days when I could say” I hate people” and it was more than 50% a joke.

    • Not Adahn

      Why were they in the office spreading the plague?

    • R C Dean

      There it is – people whose jobs are unaffected don’t give a shit about the sacrifices being imposed on other people so they can feel safe.

      Tell them they are furloughed indefinitely, and see how long it takes them to change their tune.

    • Bob Boberson

      This whole thing is literally as stupid as the tiger rock fallacy. We’re a nation of Homer Simpsons.

    • RAHeinlein

      No need to reopen as long as essential workers like them keep getting paid.

  48. R C Dean

    How about some good news:

    My 1,000 rounds of 9mm is on its way. Should get here by the end of the week.

    I am crunched for cash, but damn I could use some more .308. Also some single-aught 12 gauge.

    • kinnath

      Recent boating accidents have resulted in about 3k rounds of 9mm FMJ; 1K rounds of 9mm JHP; 2.5K rounds of 556 Nato falling into various lakes and rivers. And last fall, I lost about 200 shells of #3 buck, 20 gauge falling into a pond.

      So much tragedy.

      • R C Dean

        *single, manly tear rolls down cheek*

  49. hayeksplosives

    I should go into work as soon as I am well so that I can once again don my white lab coat with the Don’t Tread on Me patch.

    Still can’t believe the Pats new kicker feels the need to get his “3%” flag tattoo removed because someone said it was about white supremacy.

    Sad that nobody told the kicker “Never apologize.” You’d think Belichick and Kraft know this well.

    • Bob Boberson

      ‘Self-reliance and distrust of authority is racist’

      Didn’t some congress critter try to claim the Gadsden Flag is a hate symbol?

      I think Suthenboy said something once about what the left and the government really are at war with is self-reliance. They cannot stand the fact that there are people out there who do not need them.

    • Gender Traitor

      Did I miss your test results? However it turned out, hope you’re feeling better.

      • hayeksplosives

        Nope! Nothing missed. I tested about 22 hours ago and they said the results would take 24 hours.

        I doubt they’re in an all-fired hurry to contact people echo test negative.

        Starting to feel the prednisone and the doxycycline (which is wiping out my healthy gut flora so I need to go get some probiotics now).

        I imagine I’ll be back to normal by weekend.

  50. CPRM

    Thanks Trump!

    North Fond du Lac man accused of using stolen underwear to set fires

    • R C Dean

      Not to worry. He’ll have untold riches soon enough.

  51. Nephilium

    So… this just popped up in my news feed.

    MLB could start 2020 season with Opening Day by Fourth of July, report says

    So… half the season gone.

    • Certified Public Asshat

      Well, 162 games was a bit overkill.

      • Bobarian LMD

        Double elimination tournament?

  52. hayeksplosives

    The governmental response started out on the wrong foot when they universally rolled out use of the term “non-essential.” How tone deaf is that?

    “We think it’s cute that you own a beading store or a martial arts place and that you make some crumbs doing it, but we the government see no point in what you have chosen to do for a living.”

    If we had an area in flood or on fire, I’d accept “Stay home and out of the way” for a few days, but this long term non obvious lockdown is a terrible idea.pols should suffer.

    • R C Dean

      Yeah, I’ve been saying they started at the wrong end. They shouldn’t have even tried to do essential v non-essential. If they just hafta to stick their dicks in, they should have started with high-risk v low-risk. High risk of dying from it – focus on protecting nursing homes, elderly, etc. We knew very early on who was at risk of dying from it.

      But no, they saw their chance to grab the brass ring of total authority, and they took it. And I predict very few will be voted out of office for it.

      • Bob Boberson

        And we have a new pattern to follow for each subsequent ‘crisis’

      • hayeksplosives

        Climate is next. That is why they keep showing side by side pics of big cities on a regular, crowded, foggy, or smoggy day, then put it next to a clear blue pic taken during lockdown.

        Next they argue we must do that permanently “for the greater good,”

        Greater good will be used to justify stripping our identities and trampling our rights.

      • Bob Boberson

        If they go that route, the real fun will start when the food shortages begin. One thing Americans might get off their ass for is hunger. Contrary to what the billboards and food banks say, we’ve all lived our entire lives with almost total unfettered access to food. I don’t think they will take that lying down.

      • Dr. Fronkensteen

        No family needs more than one car.

        Only 1000 cars on the road at any given time.

        Road licenses similar to stadium seating licenses. (although Singapore does this and it may make sense for them)

        I can actually see something like this happening.

      • Not Adahn

        “Remember all the damage done by COVID-19? Well the models say that this virus could be even worse!

    • hayeksplosives

      The cops saw “signs of criminal activity” without specifying what it was.

      Probably the crime of not giving a share to the cops.

      • Drake

        I was going to guess “a 27-year-old man driving a 2019 Dodge Caravan”.

    • Tundra

      I’m surprised they didn’t cap him.

      • hayeksplosives

        He will never see that money again. That should be punishment enough.

      • Scruffy Nerfherder

        What money?

        /police department

    • RAHeinlein

      It’s unclear whether Tyson had this in-mind all along to ensure no liability (hence the full-page ad in major news outlets warning of pending meat supply crisis). In any event, this is one EO I welcome with open arms. Millions of hogs were headed for euthanization because of Tyson’s negligence.

      • Gustave Lytton

        I’m skeptical that it will fix the underlying problem of workers getting sick.

      • RAHeinlein

        Tyson’s protocols were horrendous and far below general food and meat industry standards (although similar to some other major pork processors who also closed due to similar outbreaks). All hands are now on-deck to ensure appropriate conditions, equipment, protocols, etc.

    • Scruffy Nerfherder

      Give a guy some warning next time.

      You can’t just sneak that in between all your other no-named posts.