My Predictions for the Election

by | Oct 20, 2020 | Executive Branch, Politics | 263 comments

I thought it would be fun to put my thoughts down on what way each of the “toss up” states from RCP are going to go, and come up with my final predictions for the election going into it. So first lets set the game board. The following is a screenshot of RCP’s Electoral map as of 15 Oct 2020.

270 to win

As you can see, RCP has 12 states, and 2 congressional districts up in the air, leaving 197 electoral votes on the floor. I’ll go over each and say how I think each will go down come Nov 3. Remember, these are just my predictions based off of the polling data, historical performance, my gut feelings and the entrails of my neighbors pet peacock. If you don’t like them, take solace in that I’m almost always wrong.

Lets start with the two Congressional Districts. They may seem like not much, but I think they could be playing an out sized role this election.

Nebraska CD2 (1):

Polling Data: N/A

Statewide is pretty solid for Trump, and Trump took the state +30% in 2016. I feel pretty confident that even that is too much of a lead for Biden to beat. I call this one for Trump.

Maine CD2 (1):

Polling Data: Biden +0.3 (Biden +11.0 Statewide)

This one is a harder call. Biden has a lock on the statewide vote, but Trump was able to take it +10% in 2016. Even though the CD looks like it will stay in Dem hands, I think this one goes to Trump again.

Ok now to the states:

Nevada (6):

Polling Data: Biden +5.2

Hillary pulled this one over Trump in 2016 by 2.4%, with Gary Johnson taking 3.3% of the vote. The lackluster performance of Jo Jo’s campaign may provide Trump a boost, but i don’t think it will be enough. Add in that the State Legislature has enacted that mail in ballots can be sent in up to 2 weeks after the election, I think this handily goes to Biden.

Texas (38):

Polling Data: Trump +4.4

The Blue Jewel of the Night. The Democrats are delusional if they think this is going to go to Biden. I call this for Trump

Michigan (16):

Polling Data: Biden +7.2

This one I’m basing off what I’ve seen from some early voting results. It seems like Trump has faltered a lot on this one. I don’t know why everyone is supporting the party locking them up. But that’s what it looks like. This is the first one that I’m calling as a flip. This one goes for Biden.

Georgia (16):

Polling data: Biden + 0.4

We are starting to get into the harder to call races. This one however looks closer, in my opinon, than it really is. This is mostly due to a Quinnipiac poll that put Biden up +7.  Quinnipiac is usually pretty poor in their polling, and the idea that Biden will pull a vote by +7 in a state Obama lost by seven points in 2012 is farcical. I call this one for Trump.

North Carolina (15):

Polling data: Biden +2.9

Will North Carolina go the way of Virginia? I don’t know. I flipped a coin. It came up heads. This goes for Trump.

Pennsylvania (20):

Polling data: Biden +6.5

I’m really conflicted on this one. The polling is just awful for Trump. However I have a contact in and around a more swing district of Pennsylvania and he says the enthusiasm is off the charts for Trump. I’m not sure, but I reluctantly call this one for Biden

Iowa (6):

Polling data: Biden +1.2

Biden seems to be doing well here, but I don’t think Biden can make up the 10 point deficit Hillary had in the state. I call this one for Trump.

Ohio (18):

Polling data: Biden +0.6

Ohio has become more red over the past few years. But with the likes of DeWine running the state, it might be purpler than I thought. Still I think it will be tight, but my prediction is Trump just barely make it.

Florida (29):

Polling data: Biden +2.7

The big prize of the night. A win in Florida for Biden would be a coup-de-grace for Trumps election bid. However I think Biden has failed to do enough distancing from communists and the antifa rioters for the comfort of the Cuban population. I think this goes to Trump. But if it goes to Biden then it’s game over.

 

We’ve gotten down to the last 3, and I think some of the most important states in this election. We are at 258 for Biden and 249 for Trump. The winner needs to win 2 of the next three states.

Wisconsin (10):

Polling data: Biden +6.3

I know the polling is just awful for Trump. I just don’t want live in a world where the people of Kenosha (looking at you Don) decide to go with Biden after antifa and other leftist rioters come and burn their city down. Especially with Biden refusing to condemn antifa. So for that reason and none that actually makes any sense (and maybe for the good ratings) I say this goes to Trump.

Arizona (11):

Polling data: Biden +3.5

So This one is going to be close, in my opinion. However I don’t think McSally is going to win. And I don’t think a state that is electing it’s second Democratic senators is going to go for Trump. I say Biden squeezes this one.

Minnesota (10)

Polling data: Biden +6.6

Down to the last state. I would like to say the same thing about Minnesota regarding the riots. However this is the same state that has elected Kieth Ellison as AG and Illhan Omar to the House of Representatives. With no offense made to our Minnesota nice Glibs, I don’t think they are going to care. I call this one for Biden.

 

So their you have it folks. My election predictions. Biden wins with 279 to 259.

 

My Predictions

 

About The Author

leon

leon

A little too young to have anything worth listening to. A little too old to have anything worth saying.

263 Comments

  1. Drake

    I predict a tight Trump win (at least with the margin of fraud) and I also predict that he wins at least one state that he was absolutely not supposed to win (so the Dems didn’t bother with cheating there). Maybe New Hampshire or Minnesota.

    • DEG

      I think Trump gets New Hampshire.

      I think in general Republicans will do well in New Hampshire this year, though I think Shaheen wins re-election to the Senate. 2018 was a good year for Democrats in NH, but I see 2020 being a very different year.

  2. kinnath

    Trump wins easily on election day. Dems fake enough ballots to swing the election. SCOTUS rules 5-4 (Roberts on the wrong side) that Trump is President. Blue cities go up in flames.

    • Drake

      So win win?

      (Sorry city Gibs)

    • PieInTheSky

      Blue cities go up in flames. – blue flames?

    • WTF

      This is probably the most likely scenario.

      • commodious spittoon

        A couple blocks in blue cities burn down regardless. Citizens flee to red states, turn red states purple, blue cities burn again regardless.

  3. PieInTheSky

    I got nothing

  4. WTF

    PA is definitely going to Biden now that the SCOTUS has opened the door for massive ballot fraud.

    • Sean

      Nothing is definite.

      • WTF

        Seriously? The ballots don’t even need postmarks to be counted three days later, so all the Dems have to do is on election night see how many un-postmarked ballots they need to “discover”.

      • juris imprudent

        PA Democrats are tired of being in between Chicago and NY for corruption – they want to top them both.

      • The Hyperbole

        If they can create these ballots why wait until after Tuesday to “discover” them? Surely they would rather win handily on election night to try and avoid the inevitable accusations of cheating.

  5. Florida Man

    I think the margin of fraud is too small. I too predict Biden. I hope he tamps down the gun confiscation stuff after he wins or I’m going to have some hard decisions to make.

    • Florida Man

      I’ll add that without Covid, Trump would have won in a walk.

      • Sean

        Which is why there is still lockdown bullshit games.

      • Rebel Scum

        If there was even remotely fair msm coverage he’d be sailing to re-election in a landslide.

    • Tejicano

      “I hope he tamps down the gun confiscation stuff”

      If there was ever any probability of a boogaloo that would kick it off.

      And I’m not talking about the “alt-right, white supremacist” version but the pro-constitution version.

      • juris imprudent

        And I’m not talking about the “alt-right, white supremacist” version but the pro-constitution version.

        A difference without distinction to the rheeeee-ing left.

  6. Tulip

    I also think Biden will win.

  7. Ownbestenemy

    Even with the mail in Nevada BS there has been 3 days of insane lines in Nevada for “early voting”. Doesn’t mean a ton of last minute ballots just show up, but Nevada might be tighter this year I think.

    Though the deluge of Cali that has moved out here in the past 3 years might be a heavy swing the other direction.

    One thing for sure, Vegas has suffered heavy economic destruction at the hand of our Guv and maybe that will equate to people not wanting more of that.

  8. The Bearded Hobbit

    I don’t think that NM *leans* Biden. In ’18 I voted against every D on the ballot, against retaining all judges, and against every bond issue. I “scored” 0.00%. NM isn’t light blue, it’s as dark blue as California.

    • Florida Man

      This is part of why I predict Biden victory. You can predict the outcome of any election by the inverse of my ballot.

    • Gadfly

      NM isn’t light blue, it’s as dark blue as California.

      NM is definitely blue, but it’s not nearly as blue as California. Your previous governor was Susana Martinez, so your state is not unwilling to consider voting R, and a fairly conservative R at that.

      • The Bearded Hobbit

        There was a massive surge of TDS in 2018 with a huge blue wave hitting the state. All three reps are D’s, as are both Senators. Lujan will probably beat the TV weatherman for Senate handily.

        Susana was probably the best governor this state has ever seen. Wish she was running for the Senate.

      • R C Dean

        There was a massive surge of TDS in 2018

        Immediately after the Dems thoroughly beclowned themselves with the disgusting Kavanaugh spectacle, mind you.

      • Gadfly

        Wish she was running for the Senate.

        If the Republican party in your state was competent they would recruit her and Johnson to run for each of the Senate seats, to give themselves a fighting chance. Although I do remember reading a profile of Martinez a while back in which she explicitly stated she did not have any intention of pursuing national office, as she did not want to move to DC. I think there was some family issue keeping her in state.

      • juris imprudent

        Or she values her sanity.

  9. Stinky Wizzleteats

    I won’t get into numbers but a Trump EC win with a popular vote loss seems likely to me, ultimately decided by how the Supremes come down on various states’ mail in ballot counting. It’s going to be an ugly shit show no matter who wins though.

    • Sean

      Gonna be lots of fires & lootings.

  10. Nephilium

    Ohio will be determined by the level of fraud in the three C’s (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati).

  11. Certified Public Asshat

    In before someone says “no matter who wins, we all lose,” because I want to be credited with being so wise.

    That said, I don’t know who will be called President in January.

  12. Jerms

    I think Vegas has it right. They know about the silent majority and still have Biden as a 2-1 favorite. Biden wins pretty handily unfortunately.

    • Florida Man

      So you’re saying I should invest in a T-shirt printer and start making shirts like:

      “Biden can’t take these guns”

      “Sleepy Creepy Joe ain’t my president”

      “I won’t live in a box. I won’t eat bugs.”

      ???

  13. Suthenboy

    Just watched a bit of a Trump rally. Over ten thousand people there. Thousands outside that couldn’t get in.
    Biden’s last rally? Ten people showed up. Ten. One-zero. Yet somehow Biden leads in the polls.

    The only way the pinkos win this is with massive fraud. If they try to enact any of their platform the country will catch fire.

    • Sean

      The word you’re looking for is enthusiasm.

      Apparently we still have a lot of nervous Nellies that don’t believe Trump is a winner.

      Trump 2020 y’all.

    • Stinky Wizzleteats

      To see what the left is going to do policy wise from now on when they get power see Virginia as the new model. From a state that was still proud of being the heart of the Confederacy to a gun grabbing state in the span of ten years.

      • Rebel Scum

        And state determined to erase its history, for diversity/inclusion of course.

        In fact, Gov Coonman said something to the effect of “We need to build a more complete history of Virginia”. To which my response is “By eliminating parts of it?”

      • Stinky Wizzleteats

        He’s a real piece of work, a governor who hates his state although, to be fair, I doubt McCauliffe cared too much for Virginia either.

      • Rhywun

        I can’t believe any governor hates their state more than Cuomo does.

      • prolefeed

        Newsome says “Hold my beer.”

      • juris imprudent

        Oh, Wolf loves PA, just like STEVE SMITH loves hikers.

    • Florida Man

      Massive fraud supported by all forms of media, all 3 letter agencies and approved by GOP power brokers. Yeah, I standby my prediction.

    • kbolino

      I don’t think most people seriously believe there’s enthusiasm behind Biden. He’s the not-Trump candidate. The question is, are more people who hate Trump motivated to vote than people who like Trump?

      • Gadfly

        The question is, are more people who hate Trump motivated to vote than people who like Trump?

        That’s really what it is. And I think there might be. But I do think it is going to be close, although I give the edge to Biden.

    • Raven Nation

      I’ll preface this by saying I have no idea who will win but my natural pessimism says either Biden or Trump.

      However, I’m not sure the number of people turning up is a good metric. In general, people who are voting for Biden are in the “I’m going to die if I go out in public” crowd so I’m not surprised his rally attendance numbers are low.

  14. Certified Public Asshat

    Not entirely off-topic: Maryland Question 2, Sports Betting Measure

    Do you approve the expansion of commercial gaming in the State of Maryland to authorize sports and events betting for the primary purpose of raising revenue for education?

    Do I oppose state revenue, particularly for education, at the expense of keeping sports betting illegal?

    • Florida Man

      It’s voluntary taxation I guess. You don’t have to gamble. Might as well vote yes, because all we are going to have left soon is bread and circuses.

      • Nephilium

        Bread and Circuses.

        A nearly 30 year old song now.

      • juris imprudent

        Off the Bread and Circus album, Pale Blue – seems appropriate.

    • kbolino

      On the one hand, it should all be legal.

      On the other hand, the fucking audacity of this shit gets to me. When we legalized and taxed gambling, the state gov’t did a fun sleight of hand. All the money went to education, and completely coincidentally the exact same amount was freed up in the general fund for legislative pet projects. It’s almost like money is fungible, or something.

      Then, on the gripping hand, fuck the NEA, AFT, and the other parasitic education unions. The need more money like a diabetic needs sugar.

    • Rhywun

      I would vote “No” as the better of two bad options. The education complex needs to be sent a message.

    • KOVIDKristen

      They never use gambling revenues for “education” anyway, so might as well go “yes”

  15. Rhywun

    Add in that the State Legislature has enacted that mail in ballots can be sent in up to 2 weeks after the election

    Come again?

    That’s insane. Worse than the shenanigans in PA.

    • kbolino

      Early voting, late voting, why do we even bother with having a defined election period? Just have ballots show up in a continuous stream and pick whatever period of time gets the desired result.

      • Raven Nation

        In theory, and I stress theory, I don’t think having an election window is necessarily a bad idea. I’m not sure exactly how you would set it up, but one way would be (in a presidential election) to set the end date and time as 8pm on the current election day. There would need to be fairly strict guidelines on handling of ballots, etc. And, rather than having apparatchiks do it, perhaps have respecting auditing firms in each state/district hold all ballots until the end time/date.

        One of the problems right now is that the ‘vid has precipitated a bunch of ad hoc responses which is going to cause chaos.

      • kbolino

        Yeah, I’m not opposed to having a week or even a month (but no more than that) during which people can cast their ballots. But I also think election security in general, never mind as we send ballots through the pony express like it’s the 19th century, is a joke. You can be required to have an ID to do anything else involving government, you can be required to submit forms and ID on time to get a job that the government has nothing to do with, and you can be required to submit your tax returns by a certain date, but saying elections aren’t free-for-alls is just a bridge too far somehow.

      • kbolino

        You know, I keep comparing the USPS to the Pony Express, but actually the latter was probably more competent and less corrupt than the former.

      • Fourscore

        “Hey, I’m not buying votes a month after the election. If you guys can’t get it done before the polls close, I’ll find someone who will and can.”

        /Campaign manager

      • R C Dean

        I don’t think having an election window is necessarily a bad idea

        I do. The longer ballots are in the wild, or sitting in a room, the greater the opportunity for fraud. The stakes are way too high, what with our totipotent government, society is way too divided, and people are way too corruptible (what, you think those white collar accounting or law firms are immune to the woke tide sweeping white collar firms everywhere?) not to lock it down any way you can.

        Vote in person, or pick up your absentee ballot in person. Period. It worked just fine until a few years ago, and somehow we decided that wasn’t broke needed fixing.

      • kbolino

        I think you could count them as they come in but only report the count to the public once the polls have closed. Having a daily roll-up count from every precinct reported to the state elections office would also introduce a mildly better level of accountability too.

      • robc

        I have suggested something caucus-style. Each precinct has a 2 hour block, you gather, sign in, vote privately but at roughly the same time. Then the precinct counts the votes while you are still there before submitting them.

        A gym could be used for 5-6 different precincts in the same day.

  16. CatchTheCarp

    I just hope Trump can avoid stepping all over his dick on Thursday. Should be interesting to see how muting the microphones plays out….. I am cautiously optimistic that Team Red pull this this out some how and I get to stay up late and savor all those Lefty tears again.

    • Tejicano

      I’m hoping the mike-muting by the left-leaning moderator will give Sleepy Joe enough time to make a bunch of hilarious gaffs without being interrupted.

      • Sean

        #metoo

    • KOVIDKristen

      That’s Trump’s biggest fault as a campaigner & politician – he doesn’t know when to STFU and let the other guy step in it. One thing I’ve learned from watching all those police interrogations on The First 48 is never interrupt a suspect talking himself into a life sentence.

      • Claypoolsreservoir

        This. Trump does this all the time. Take the cages back and forth. Trump had him and then he decided it would be a good idea to talk about how he went down there and saw that the facilities were so clean and tremendous. Like, dude, you had him and then you decided it would be a good idea to talk about how great the jail cells for kids were/are!? ?

  17. Fourscore

    Sometimes winning is losing. Watch for the smoke in Mpls-SP regardless of the results.

  18. robc

    Flip MN and it is a tie. Lol. Can you imagine the pressure on the electors to flip?

    I think MN and NH go to Trump. Just a gut. And probably Michigan as well. And maybe Pennsylvania. Some combo of those puts Trump over the top.

  19. robc

    So, is this the thread for the glibs prediction contest?

    I so, I will start it: Trump 295, Biden 240, Faithless Electors 3.

    • robc

      And to break any ties, I am predicting the Faithless Elector breakdown: Kamala 2, Hillary 1.

  20. prolefeed

    I’m gonna go with the polls are oversampling Ds. Pulling a number out of my ass, I’d add +7 Trump across the board. Which means he takes all the swing states except Michigan. Biden 232, Trump 306.

    • Stinky Wizzleteats

      I hope you’re right and there are the shy Trumpers too. People are afraid of getting doxxed. I know my mildly paranoid self wouldn’t tell the truth to a telephone pollster.

      • prolefeed

        I can’t talk politics with any of my siblings, any of my in-laws, or in most cases my wife. My wife went ballistic once when I said that Trump was better on the lockdowns and masks than Biden, and that if I were to vote, I sure wouldn’t vote for Biden. She was not quite yelling, “You support TRUMP!!!?” And she KNOWS I’m not registered to vote, and loathe both of the major party candidates, and I’m a libertarian. As in, “once was an LP Party state Chair.”

        Repeat that sort of religious reaction to heretics across the country, resulting in people shutting up or outright lying to keep the peace, and you gotta think those poll numbers are GIGO.

      • Toxteth O'Grady

        Sorry, dude. Derangement is rife in my Rolodex too. Apparently there was an impromptu vehicular Trump rally in CA!!¡!1!! (Not OC, either.) ?

      • Ted S.

        As in, “once was an LP Party state Chair.”

        Prolefeed is Michael Hihn?

    • Ownbestenemy

      I think that was close to mine a few days ago

  21. Scruffy Nerfherder

    I think I’m just going to smoke a bowl instead.

  22. R C Dean

    Alright, I updated Monocle, and now any time I refresh, all the “read” comments disappear. So when I log in, every comment on the page that was there when I logged in disappears. I want to see the “read” comments. Any way to make that happen?

    Oh, and I agree that AZ is gone. The idiot Republicans who control the state government did nothing to shut down the Phoenix ballot harvesting machine after McSally lost in 2018 (she lead after in-person voting, and when the harvested ballots were counted, wound up losing), and will likely not win a statewide election for some time to come.

    • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

      See the “S” on the left hand side? Tap it and it will turn into an H. That’ll fix it.

      • R C Dean

        Whether its an S or an H seems to make little difference. I’m seeing a few older comments either way, but not all 54 comments.

      • R C Dean

        Cleared cookies, and it seems to be working now.

      • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

        for some reason, cookies sometimes get hosed up. not sure why. I’m glad you found the solution.

      • Drake

        That’s new so I don’t like it!

    • R C Dean

      Oh, and Biden carries Pennsylvania because the Supremes declined to shut the door on a massive opportunity for election fraud, which the Dems will not leave unexploited.

      • Sean

        Biden carries Pennsylvania

        This democrat mayor disagrees.

        “I see a huge turnout, a huge victory, huge numbers for Trump, and I honestly see that across the commonwealth and across the nation,” Taylor commented while noting there would be “more and more” Democrats who felt “abandoned” by the party.

      • Timeloose

        I just reviewed the process for obtaining an absentee ballot and submitting it. https://www.votespa.com/Voting-in-PA/Pages/Mail-and-Absentee-Ballot.aspx

        This will effectively cause Biden to loose votes even with the expected fraud. Republicans will vote in person as they are more motivated.

        “In order to apply for an absentee or mail-in ballot, you must supply proof of identification. Uniformed and overseas citizens and voters who qualify under the voting accessibility for the elderly and handicapped act do not need to show ID. All other voters must use one of the following options.”

        “Current and valid Pennsylvania driver’s license
        PennDOT photo ID card”

        Old age homes need to be monitored for fraud, as they are excluded, but all able bodied people who don’t want to go to the polls will need to expend a lot of effort and ensure they make no mistakes or ballots will be considered invalid.

        “Step 1:Read the instructions carefully and mark your ballot. Be sure to complete the front and back of each page.

        Step 2: ballot being sealed in secrecy envelope
        Seal your ballot in the white inner secrecy envelope that indicates official ballot. Do not place any marks on the white inner secrecy envelope.
        Your ballot must be enclosed in the white inner secrecy envelope to be counted.

        Step 3:
        seal the secrecy envelope into the return envelope
        Seal the inner secrecy envelope in the pre-addressed outer return envelope. Complete, sign and date the voter’s declaration on the outside of the outer return envelope.
        If you do not sign the outer return envelope, your ballot will not be counted.

        Step 4:
        You should then return your voted ballot to the county board of elections. The deadline to return absentee and mail-in ballots is by 8 p.m. on election day, but the sooner the better.

      • R C Dean

        Assume corruption. Assume that many ballots will be returned that meet the requirements for being counted, but were not actually requested by anyone. Assume the Dems know, from the voter rolls, who is unlikely to vote and thus who can “return” a ballot they never saw.

        And now the Dems have three days after the election to know how many to manufacture.

        The deadline to return absentee and mail-in ballots is by 8 p.m. on election day,

        Not any more. And who knows what other requirements have been altered? I swear multiple federal judges have ruled, for example, that requiring photo ID to vote is illegal.

      • Timeloose

        I thought they had to be in the mail by election day, but they were not going to look for post marked dates. They were going to limit counting after ~3 days. This would cover any lag due to the mail system. The largest area for fraud will be old age homes. One employee can “manage” and “assist” the voting of the entire facility.

        There also needs to be observers from both parties or preferably third parties at the ballot box, counting facilities, and especially the official pick up services being used.

      • R C Dean

        they had to be in the mail by election day, but they were not going to look for post marked dates

        So, not in the mail by election day. Just delivered before the three days expire. I would be very surprised if ballots weren’t already being stockpiled to roll back any election day win by Trump.

      • Timeloose

        I don’t doubt that that will happen, but the question will be how much and will it be enough. The republicans would need to be poll and vote count watching and question when ever any large bulk votes are received by mail or deposit box

  23. robc

    Anyone else got suckered into watching LockPickingLawyer videos on youtube? I cant stop watching them.

    • UnCivilServant

      I found him too annoying to finish one.

      • robc

        They are about 2 minutes each. I like his deadpan style.

  24. mexican sharpshooter

    Arizona (11):
    Polling data: Biden +3.5

    So This one is going to be close, in my opinion. However I don’t think McSally is going to win. And I don’t think a state that is electing it’s second Democratic senators is going to go for Trump. I say Biden squeezes this one.

    I don’t see a huge difference in the number of signs in people’s yards but Trump won the congressional district I live by +10 so it seems like there are more…that said when people put up Trump signs in their yard they put up a big ass sign, or have a bunch of flags on their enormous pickup trucks.

    Supposedly this was Tucson yesterday:
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1318338916353675264

    This was Prescott:
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1318276008303382529

    But you’re definitely right about McSally.

    • R C Dean

      I’m thinking there’s a 1 in 3 chance, maybe better, that the Dems sweep the field this year.

      Some idiot in a Biden ad was saying that he needs to reopen his business, and somehow the guy promising a lockdown if he wins is just the guy for him? Michigan isn’t Trump +10? We’re broken as a society, and that’s what means the Dems will win. If not this time, then next time.

      • kbolino

        The things that are broken now will remain broken regardless of who wins the election. Even a single party sweep of our branches of government solves nothing. If anything, it just leads to bigger problems as the hubris of that party’s elected officials overtakes them. We’d need a top-down, from-scratch, rebuild of government to stand a chance at fixing anything, since politics is downstream of culture, it’s questionable that we would end up with something better.

      • R C Dean

        Even a single party sweep of our branches of government solves nothing

        I believe the next time the Dems take control, they will solve their problem of occasionally losing control to the Repubs.

      • Scruffy Nerfherder

        This

        They have every intention of locking down the electoral system for the indefinite future by hook or by crook.

        And a large portion of the voting public appears to have no problem with it.

      • robc

        They had 40 years of control of the US House. I doubt it lasts even 1/2 that again. The US isn’t California, I dont think they can fix it to take that kind of control. Worse case scenario, they ending up internally splitting like the Democrat-Republicans of the 1820s.

      • R C Dean

        The US isn’t California, I dont think they can fix it to take that kind of control.

        Why not? Pass federal legislation on the requirements for voting for federal offices. Lots of “ballot access” – mandatory mail-in voting and wide-open ballot harvesting would probably do it for them. Throw in federal funding of campaigns, so the money is controlled by the Deep State. Stack the Court so whatever they do survives any challenge. I’m sure there’s other things they could do, as well.

      • juris imprudent

        The difference is, the Republicans in CA rolled over to get their bellies scratched. They were okay with being a minority party as long as they had their safe seats. They fully deserve what they got and what CA got in the bargain.

        You won’t find that same subservience across the country. If they do, it will be the death of the party nationally, and a new more aggressive response to proggie-overreach will appear.

      • R C Dean

        But this would be federal. Using the VA model of “slam everything through the moment you have both houses and the executive”, who is going to stop them.

        Elminate the filibuster to get their agenda through? Sure, why not. Pack the Court to protect it? Sure, why not.

        Maybe I’m overestimating the leftists’ will to power. Maybe I’m underestimating their respect for American traditions and institutions.

        The FDR era Dems were likely complacent, and certainly a different breed than the current “By Any Means Necessary” Dems. That generation didn’t lose their freaking minds when they lost a close election, after all. There were no “out” communists in their elected ranks. The outright, brazen corruption we see today would not have been tolerated. The Democrat city of Chicago busted heads as necessary to put down leftist riots; the didn’t tolerate, encourage, and even join in on them.

        And they didn’t have the benefit of two generations of leftist brainwashing throughout the education system.

        Bah. I’m in a pessimistic mood today.

      • kbolino

        I assume your response here is at least partly directed at what I said. I’d say you overestimate their abilities rather than their intentions. And on one specific point, I have a more directed response:

        And they didn’t have the benefit of two generations of leftist brainwashing throughout the education system.

        Horace Mann and John Dewey say hi.

      • juris imprudent

        “By Any Means Necessary” Dems

        That just provokes an equal and opposite reaction, politically.

        I’ve been telling my FB circle – the backlash building to the protests is going to be way worse, for all of us.

      • Gadfly

        Using the VA model of “slam everything through the moment you have both houses and the executive”, who is going to stop them.

        In all honesty, I think if the Dems try to do the VA strategy on the national level they will fail, because it will only take one state to stand up to them to start a preference cascade against what they want, since so many people don’t want it. Take for example, gun control, for which there is a large and passionate movement against. One governor stands up against the Biden gun control, says they will arrest any feds who try to implement such unconstitutional law, and that governor instantly becomes the leader of a massive and motivated movement, which will pressure others to follow suit. I could see a revival of the Principles of ’98 if the Dems try to overplay their hand.

      • R C Dean

        if the Dems try to do the VA strategy on the national level they will fail, because it will only take one state to stand up to them to start a preference cascade

        Supremacy Clause FTW. Backstopped by a packed SCOTUS, in my worst-case scenario.

        And made irrelevant by electoral reforms that make any Repub (or other) delegation to the national government irrelevant. It will take one hell of a preference cascade to unseat the Dems in my worst case scenario. As long as they keep the culture war going and the free shit flowing, I think they can lock themselves in for a generation. They’ve just never dared to lay hands on the electoral process before. I think the current crew can, and will, when they get the chance. Remember, the backlash will have to carry the House, the Senate, and the Presidency all at once to even be in a position to undo the leftist program. You know, like the Repubs did to ObamaCare right after they swept the table.

        I’ve been telling my FB circle – the backlash building to the protests is going to be way worse, for all of us.

        Violence and chaos are not liberty’s friend. And the left knows all about purging the useful idiots, once they stop being useful. A backlash against antifa may or may not be a backlash against the left in general.

      • Gadfly

        Supremacy Clause FTW. Backstopped by a packed SCOTUS, in my worst-case scenario.

        And made irrelevant by electoral reforms that make any Repub (or other) delegation to the national government irrelevant. It will take one hell of a preference cascade to unseat the Dems in my worst case scenario.

        If 40% of the country strongly doesn’t want what they are doing, none of this matters. How, exactly, would the federal government enforce its laws on states that refuse to recognize them? The federal government reigns supreme because the people and their representatives allow it to. If enough people decide that it is not worthy of their submission, it won’t matter what decrees come down from on high, so who controls the offices making such decrees becomes irrelevant. The preference cascade I was talking about was people realizing they don’t have to follow what the fedgov says (just like the American Revolutionaries eventually realized they didn’t have to follow what the king said). The left absolutely has a will to power to take total control, but if they are faced with a large enough group with a will to power not to let that happen, it won’t.

      • R C Dean

        Well, yes, a preference cascade resulting in a revolution/civil war would certainly do the trick.

      • Gadfly

        Well, yes, a preference cascade resulting in a revolution/civil war would certainly do the trick.

        I don’t think it has to escalate to a war, just nullification in practice, to bring things back to normal. Sanctuary states all over the place, for people who actually want the Constitution to be the law of the land. That might end in a war, but hopefully just a divorce.

      • R C Dean

        I have a hard time seeing the left agreeing to peacefully give up their control of a big chunk of the country.

      • kbolino

        The GOP was already a minority party for 60 years. From 1934 to 1994, the Democrats were almost always in control of all 3 enumerated branches of the Federal government and the unenumerated superbranch that is the bureaucracy. FDR was a more cunning politician than anyone who’s come since; Bill Clinton is the closest and he’s not that close.

        And yet, for those 60 years, the country had conservatives and liberals well represented in the Congress and Presidency (less so the courts, where FDR’s real legacy lives on). The party system and the ideology didn’t exactly line up, and a cross-party coalition was formed in Congress as a result. The biggest change to happen in the 1980s-2000s was the ouster/exit of conservatives from the Democratic Party, with some holdouts in the South lasting into the early 2010s, and the realignment of the GOP with conservatism.

        However, the association of GOP with conservative is not suddenly indelible. It was not the case before, it may cease to be the case again. The question is one of representation and not of parties. Whatever the Democrats might do given all 3 branches again isn’t guaranteed to cement their party’s permanent rule. For one thing, they have at least as much hubris as establishment Republicans. Not only is there no FDR in the party today, there’s no one who would countenance the next FDR. If they become the majority party again, they will eventually face the same internal division as before.

        I’d continue to say that the biggest problem of representation in our country is that there are too few representatives. Neither party wants to change that because fewer representatives means the House is a mini-Senate and thus each representative is more important. But as they can’t keep their ego in check any more, they are more likely to be laid low than exalted.

      • Gadfly

        The GOP was already a minority party for 60 years. From 1934 to 1994, the Democrats were almost always in control of all 3 enumerated branches of the Federal government and the unenumerated superbranch that is the bureaucracy.

        While the GOP was typically the minority in the House and Senate during this period (only holding the House for 4 and the Senate for 10 of those 60 years), the presidency was another story (as they held it 28 years during that time period). But I think you’re right in your larger point that it will be difficult/impossible for the Democrats to cement permanent party rule. The fact that the GOP was able to bounce back after their dismal state of the FDR years is evidence that no political system is permanent in the US (or anywhere, really). But the Republican party, when it returns, will look different. Most likely they will surrender on healthcare, as they did previously on Social Security, because that’s what the people seem to want (as evidenced by the fact that that’s what the Dems are hitting the Reps hardest on).

      • RAHeinlein

        Sadly, I agree. There are a number of Dems masquerading as moderates, plus a full-out Boomer-scare campaign about Covid, SS, Medicare, etc.

  25. Drake

    I wonder if the Hunter stuff will have a big impact. If I was Trump, I would just tell people to read the NYPost stories and decide for themselves rather than trying to shout over Biden and the “moderator”.

    Hunter’s pictures had location data in them – he spent a lot of time in and around LA two years ago. Random people on the internet have already nailed down where he was for many of them. Imagine what an investigative journalist could do with that information.

  26. leon

    As many have pointed out I am now more sure PA goes Dem after the SCOTUS green lit voter fraud.

    As for other things, i didn’t realize how badly the bidens would handle this Hunter Biden stuff, but i really can’t quantify how much it moves the needle. Could push AZ over, but I’ll stick with what i wrote.

    Thanks for the replies folks!

  27. Tundra

    Jordan Peterson is home.

    Looks rough but I’m looking forward to him getting back at it.

    • Toxteth O'Grady

      Haven’t watched above yet, but 12 Rules lectures hold up well to replays, esp. when one is sick of or has run out of other usual podcasts. His bashful little chuckles are so charming.

  28. Rebel Scum

    This ad is the tits. I mean, it has everything. Biden’s campaign is the most cynical ever. It actually made me laugh.

    • CatchTheCarp

      The Blind Pig is in Michigan…… which makes it 100x funnier.

      • WTF

        Trump isn’t the one who shut down your bar, moron.

      • WTF

        I mean come on, is the owner really that clueless? Does he not know that other states like Florida have been successfully open for quite some time now, while Michigan is being kept down by…not Trump?

    • R C Dean

      What’s just perfect is that he inherited his money. From his wife’s family. I mean, he may done will with his management of it (I really don’t know), but remember when Trump was mocked because he got his start with his father’s money?

    • DEG

      Comments are turned off.

    • Gadfly

      Has Thanksgiving already happened where you live?

      • leon

        Looks like we’ve got a Scrooge McDuck here! I need some muscle!

      • Nephilium

        I’ve drawn my line in the snow. No Christmas music/decorations/movies/shows in my house until Thanksgiving.

        Besides, this is the time of year for horror films and television.

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        No, a more serious reply now:

        Christmas music takes me away from what’s really going on and gives me a little bit of hope. Now, hope for what, I don’t know. I sat here trying to think of what, exactly, I have hope for, but I can’t put it into words. Something something humanity better something something.

        Also, there is the time of the end of a year, time for cleanup, time for organizing, time for preparing for a new journey starting January 1, even if it’s just a continuation of the old journey.

        I don’t do new years’ resolutions, but I do like the idea of a new beginning and the hope that things COULD change for the better.

      • KOVIDKristen

        I feel the same about Christmas music. I especially like the religious songs, even though I’m an atheist.

      • Tulip

        I do resolutions. Things like I will eat out more. I don’t do self improvement ones

      • leon

        ^^ This. I’ve done ones that i think will generally make me happier.

        For example one year i resolved to be less honest. Made life way easier to just tell a white lie about something than try to explain everything to people pestering me about my life.

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        I think that is a very neat idea. I may try that. I’ll have to really think about it, though.

      • Scruffy Nerfherder

        I resolve to do more drugs.

      • Gadfly

        Don’t get me wrong, I like Christmas music, I just tire of it after a while and so don’t want to be burnt out on it by Christmas day, since I want to enjoy it on Christmas. And, admittedly, I do like things to be orderly so find it a bit jarring when something is “out of place”, such as a holiday being celebrated far from when the holiday actually is (no Christmas in July for me). This year I don’t have to worry about premature Christmas music, though, since my main source of it was one of my co-workers (before he got married this year he kept Christmas lights up at home – inside – year round), and we are still work from home right now.

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        Oh, no. I could not do that. I start struggling with putting on Christmas music around the middle of September, especially on rainy days. In fact, I tried this year and just couldn’t do it.

        So we’re 2/3 of the way through October. It’s dreary. It’s cold. I’m feeling a little sick to my stomach (I think my ulcer’s back). The election is looming and I’m scared Biden will win even though I’m almost 100% positive he won’t. So… comfort? I guess. I need comfort music.

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        I put my Christmas stuff up the day after Thanksgiving (by decree of Mr. Mojeaux) and take it down on January 1.

      • leon

        See My wife likes to put it up after halloween but often wants to take it down the day after Christmas.

      • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

        That’s how we grew up. Tree went up while watching the Macy’s Thanksgiving day parade. Tree went down while watching the rose bowl.

        Wife is more of a early November to late January kind of person, so now I’m an early November to late January kind of person.

      • UnCivilServant

        I’m a Dec 24th-25th kind of person.

        Here’s what my tree looked like last.

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        I typically have at least 2 big trees (one is aluminum) and several micro trees scattered around the house.

        My dream is an entire vignette with animatronic half-life-size Santa and Mrs. Santa and maybe a mini white picket fence and lots of fake snow. Perhaps Dickensian animatronic carolers.

        Alas, I do not have room and I cannot be arsed.

      • Gadfly

        My dream is an entire vignette with animatronic half-life-size Santa and Mrs. Santa and maybe a mini white picket fence and lots of fake snow. Perhaps Dickensian animatronic carolers.

        That reminds me of the Christmas store in Rothenburg, Germany. While you can’t tell from the picture, they had a ton of animatronics in there, including entire street scenes of stuffed animals doing Christmas-themed stuff.

      • Nephilium

        Christmas in July (at least here) is a big drinking holiday in the middle of summer. It got to be so popular at least one vacation location started purging it from the summer (Put-In-Bay).

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        I believe Christmas in July started with craft stores (e.g., needlework and quilt shops) because it takes a while to make shit and six months was enough time to get things made in time for it to be displayed at Christmas.

      • Fatty Bolger

        It gives me hope for the return of a time that never really existed.

    • UnCivilServant

      It is December the 24th?

      • KOVIDKristen

        A Very Special Christmas Vol. 1 is the greatest Christmas album ever made, IMO.

      • PieInTheSky

        back in the day those boys would cut their balls of to keep the voice or maybe that was a myth

      • UnCivilServant

        No, the Italians really did that. They stopped centuries ago.

        There is even a recording of the last castrati singing, I think it’s a wax cylinder.

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        Their album is on Amazon streaming, so that’s what I’m hitting now.

        KK, linky?

        I’m probably going to go to Midnight Mass again this year, even if I have to go by myself. Mom’s not in physical shape to sit on those pews. That’s way past Mr. Mojeaux’s bedtime. Neither of the tax deductions will be interested.

        But I love it. The majesty, the pomp and circumstance. We have no pomp or circumstance and barely a Christmas program, so it’s always lovely.

      • KOVIDKristen

        That song is done by Chrissy Hynde on the aforementioned album…it’s a lovely rendition

      • KOVIDKristen

        (that song = “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas”)

      • Certified Public Asshat

        That’s not TSO though.

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        I am so sick of TSO and Mannheim Steamroller I can’t stand it.

      • Certified Public Asshat

        *narrows gaze at Mo, in a non-Swiss way*

        I also like listening to the Home Alone soundtrack.

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        This is nice. I like it, especially the bells.

        My kid heard Frank Sinatra on a commercial and said, “Christmas music?!”

        I had to explain to him that not all midcentury lounge music was Christmas music.

      • juris imprudent

        Okay, maybe something a little less astringent.

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        I love that song. I haven’t heard one version/cover I haven’t liked.

    • kinnath

      No Christmas music until after my last story posts.

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        Speaking of! I have not read your story yet, as I haven’t had a chance. Will do presently.

  29. leon

    Also, i’ll say this: I think Nate Silver is blinded by the polls. He is too suspicious of polls that make accounts for actual voter registrations numbers and not suspicious enough of other polls.

    • Lord Humungus

      So, like everyone else, he only like the polls that he likes.

  30. kinnath

    The media narrative is:

    1) Dems are voting in huge numbers in advance (mail in or absentee)

    2) Many of these ballots will be challenged depriving people of their right to vote

    3) Repubs will vote in person on election day

    4) The press will report a “red mirage” showing Trump winning the election

    5) The mail-in and absentee ballots will turn the election over to Biden

    6) The courts will decide the election

    7) Whoever loses, declares the election invalid

    The implication is that impeachment number 2 starts the day after SCOTUS makes Trump president.

    • RAHeinlein

      I see markets tanking either way due to uncertainty, with another tumble if Biden is declared the official victor. Since the markets must be propped to cover all those sweet pensions, another historic buying opportunity.

    • Animal

      Voter registration =/= loyalty to a candidate.

      Trump’s rallies have been drawing a fair number of independents and Democrats. His Ocala rally on the 13th they reportedly surveyed the audience and claim that about 32% of the audience were “not Republicans,” and a tad over 16% were Democrats.

      If that’s accurate, and if that’s a sign of a trend, he could be drawing a lot of the old blue-collar Truman Democrat votes. That may not be enough to affect the down-ballots, but it might be enough for him to win re-election.

      • Florida Man

        That’s not unusual in Florida. In the rural areas they vote Democrat for local elections and republicans in national elections. They can’t let go of the democrats being the party of the working man.

  31. Animal

    I’m skeptical of the polls, and of the predictions based on those polls; I think Trump has an even-money chance of pulling it off.

    But if he doesn’t, we’ll be accelerating our Alaska plans. At that point it’s time to abandon the 48.

    • PieInTheSky

      can you get there via a long boat trip?

      • Animal

        Crossing the Rockies might be a bit of a stretch.

      • UnCivilServant

        Alaska by way of the panama canal?

        Or portage. Portage is probably faster.

      • Animal

        We’ll drive the AlCan at least once. From what I’ve seen, a commercial moving service for what stuff we’re taking north is actually cheaper than hauling a car and trailer up on the various ferries.

        The guns that are problematic to get through Canada are going up courtesy of United Airlines, checked baggage. That’s already under way.

      • Fourscore

        My grand daughter/husband just drove up with their guns/ammo. Declared them and were instructed not to stop and party (covid) and pass through in 5 days. Via Seattle…

    • KOVIDKristen

      I’m-a drive up in my lil RV and visit

      • Animal

        Glib visitors are always welcome.

  32. Gadfly

    I think you are probably right. I’m feeling it will be a close race, with Biden ahead, and your assessments of the states seems pretty good to me.

    I know the polling is just awful for Trump. I just don’t want live in a world where the people of Kenosha (looking at you Don) decide to go with Biden after antifa and other leftist rioters come and burn their city down. Especially with Biden refusing to condemn antifa.

    Now, I know this is purely anecdotal, so it means next to nothing, but my brother in Wisconsin (Milwaukee suburbs) told me that he was talking to his Republican friends the other day and while most of them had been polled on their opinions (although it wasn’t clear if this was proper polls or the campaign texts asking for your support), only one of them had answered honestly – the others all intend to vote Trump but told the strangers asking them otherwise. So there is at least some shy Trump support in the state.

    Another interesting note: if (and only if) the polls are exactly as right as they were in 2016 (unlikely, as the environment has changed and hopefully pollsters learned a thing or two), then Trump wins everything he won last time except AZ and GA. The Midwestern states are still within 2016’s margin of error. It could be a crazy election.

    • leon

      hopefully pollsters learned a thing or two

      I’ve also made that assumption, though i don’t know if it is really founded. I havn’t heard anything to show that pollsters have changed tactics since 2016

    • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

      My wife is big on the shy tory bandwagon. She is seeing a ton of people on social media shutting the hell up after their compatriots were made an example of.

      The narrative is that democrats are making substantial inroads into the married soccer mom bloc (single women are the most progressive demographic group, overall, but married women tend to be somewhat conservative). I question whether that narrative is more the effect of a whole bunch of married women clamming up due to threats from the blue hairs and from antifa.

  33. Semi-Spartan Dad

    Thanks for this, Leon.

    I have no prediction. I think the polls are complete fabrications and Trump would easily win a fair election. On the other hand, the Dems will cheat with everything they’ve got and I have no knowledge of estimating how much that effort will boost Biden.

    • R C Dean

      A fair assessment. Remember, a couple hundred thousand manufactured ballots, spread across, what, 4 states, and Hillary would be cruising to re-election right now. The Dems were just caught flat-footed, and didn’t have the massive advantage of the ‘Vid panic blowing up normal election procedures.

      • leon

        And the stinging memory of losing to Trump. They believed their own shit about Hillary being unstoppable. 2018 was definitely a rehearsal for 2020, on a small scale. The fraud is going to be everywhere this time.

  34. KOVIDKristen

    I have been bombarded with Biden ads on TV and streaming services. No Trump ads at all. Does that mean Biden is panicked about Virginia, or has Trump given up on Virginia?

    • leon

      I’ve seen a lot more Biden Ads on YouTube as well. I think Biden has out raised trump by 2X so is blowing the cash now (only got 15 days left, might as well blow it all right?)

    • juris imprudent

      Clinton outspent Trump in ’16, so I don’t put a lot of stock in that. Honest to god – anyone influenced by TV political ads should have their vote discounted or thrown out.

      • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

        I would vote for somebody who used their ad time to play elevator music and put a simple message of “brought to you by X, candidate for congress” on screen

    • Lord Humungus

      I’ve seen a crapload of Biden ads on the youtube TV streaming… mostly starring my least favorite shitcan, Obama.

  35. ignoreLander

    “I just don’t want live in a world where the people of Kenosha (looking at you Don) decide to go with Biden after antifa and other leftist rioters come and burn their city down”

    Never underestimate the vast power of tribalism.

    I don’t have a feel for this one. I would have bet my family farm on Clinton in 16 so I’m probably not a good one to ask….

  36. juris imprudent

    Holy crap, go to the Bee homepage and check out the first premium content link (dastardly disguises of Hillary Clinton). The next thing they’ll steal, after Bowdlerizing it, is the Hat & Hair.

    • Ownbestenemy

      Its cause we have a moonlighter here

  37. PieInTheSky

    Why don’t you people move to Russia if you love trump that much / replace biden and venezuela wherever the case may be

  38. Plisade

    My thinking might be simplistic, but… Trump won in 2016 against a candidate who at least had some reason for blue enthusiasm, a first female prez. In 2020, what about Biden would cause someone to be enthusiastic? Nothing, and I think his rally attendance speaks to that. As for Trump, enthusiasm appears to have increased. For the enthusiasm factor alone, I think Trump is gonna kill it. And the amount of fraud it will take to change that will be too high for the blue crooks to overcome.

    /knocks on wood

    • juris imprudent

      A mass movement doesn’t require a unifying belief, only a unifying demon/scapegoat – paraphrasing Hoffer.

      • Plisade

        True, but is what the dems are doing a mass movement? They’re not even really rebelling against anything with all their rioting; they love love love them some gubmint. Sure, they’re anti-Trump, but just as useful idiots for the swamp, and/or to sound cool at their cocktail parties or local coffee shops. There’s really nothing to their movement.

        The middle class, however, is motivated. Look at gun sales. The real movement today is from the conservative side, and, though I wouldn’t have thought this 4 years ago, Trump has secured the beach head. The real revolution is coming from the right.

        In some un-simplistic thinking, I believe Soros knows this and Antifa is a distraction to keep conservatives from realizing that they themselves are the budding revolutionary (not necessarily violent) movement.

      • juris imprudent

        Trump is their demon, and thus the rallying point. If they get elected – the whole lot will find they don’t much care for each other.

      • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

        Antifa is a distraction to keep conservatives from realizing that they themselves are the budding revolutionary (not necessarily violent) movement.

        IMO, the not necessarily violent caveat is exactly why it’s not an issue that Soros is dipping his toes in. As long as conservatives and libertarians and alt-righters are busy making internet memes and bitching on internet forums, the unfettered march toward authoritarianism (by both parties) continues.

        A handful of milquetoast protests ain’t gonna cut it. Violence isn’t necessary, but the legitimate, imminent threat of violence is. Besides the militia movements, I haven’t really seen anybody who is interested in giving up their cozy lives to do the actual dirty work of kicking off a revolution, violent or no. I’m lumping myself in that crowd, because I’m way too cozy right now to go start anything. I have a job and a house in a nice neighborhood and no debt and all the scary stuff is 1000 miles away. The problems with this country are mostly academic to me. Until they stop being academic and start being visceral, the right will be all bark and no bite.

      • Semi-Spartan Dad

        and amazingly Rittenhouse was slammed by many who are against Antifa as doing the wrong thing for defending that community.

      • SUPREME OVERLORD trshmnstr

        Some people have no passion beyond being seen as a peace maker. Taking a stand for a cause is seen as bad. There are a lot of people who could learn something from Rittenhouse about courage of convictions.

      • Lord Humungus

        but the screw turns…

        I mean look at the country of Colombia. Or Pinochet in Chile.

        The left doesn’t always win and things can turn bloody very quickly. I’m too damn old for a revolution or counter-revolution or a counter-counter…

        I had to laugh at this disturbing video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=340l6z3-9aI

    • Charlie Suet

      It’s hard to see how Biden is getting away with such a terrible campaign. All the lids, the fact that it’s vote Biden get Harris, the long history of corruption and dishonesty. But he does have the media on his side, and there’ll be a fair number of people who will vote for a quiet life.

      The reality is that the culture war will continue under President Harris and moderates who vote Democrats will get more if what they rewarded. But lots of people want to stop being worried by stories of chaos every time they turn on the TV, however bogus you might think they are.

      • R C Dean

        the culture war will continue under President Harris

        Will it ever. Nothing motivates people who hate like having power. With the DOJ, DOL, DOE under leftist control, the #Resist wokesters will be completely off the leash.

      • kinnath

        The Dems are not running Biden or even Harris. They are running a concept where the Virginia model is applied to the US. Where progressives get everything the want in one election.

      • juris imprudent

        It has never worked that way – they always end up losing and staring dumbly while their opponents now wield the expanded power. That’s how fucking stupid they are.

      • kinnath

        It worked once, in one place, for a while.

        So hope and change.

      • juris imprudent

        If I saw real Lenin/Trotsky kind of person coming up the Dem ranks, then I might be worried. But every one of the fuckers is just a useless grifter. I find solace in that.

    • Gadfly

      In 2020, what about Biden would cause someone to be enthusiastic?

      Not-Trump? Dawning of the Neo-Progressive Era? First Female POC president?

      • Plisade

        I haven’t seen any enthusiasm for Kamala outside the swamp; Biden will be their puppet until Kamala is.

      • Gadfly

        I haven’t seen any enthusiasm for Kamala outside the swamp

        That’s because she insists on talking. A lot of lefties like the idea of Kamala, but very few people seem to like the reality of her.

  39. The Late P Brooks

    I saw something this morning claiming the Trump campaign is spending something like $.75 per dollar raised. Somebody’s pockets are getting lined.

    Bring back Bannon and Parscale.

  40. LJW

    Weeeeeeeeeee!

    Why would anyone pay to sit in those seats? At that height you might as well be sitting in your living room watching on TV.

    • PieInTheSky

      you can tell people you were there. it is what matters.

    • Toxteth O'Grady

      Vertiginous!

    • Hyperion

      Not sure if just rumor, but I did hear that Biden said Hungary and Poland are tyrannical states and that something needs to be done.

      If that’s true, that goes right back to the Soviet rhetoric of calling Eastern European countries, fascist states.

      Commies never change.

    • PieInTheSky

      dunno seems like chick stuff

      • Mojeaux the Malevolent

        I’m sandwiching the Hallmark Channel between The Boys, Cobra Kai, and various other gritty, grimy, gory stuff.

      • PieInTheSky

        jokes aside, I am not in much mood for drama these days. Or movies in general. Too long.

      • Scruffy Nerfherder

        Jack Dorsey owns your soul.

  41. wdalasio

    I’m probably going to sound like I’ve been drinking the Kool-Aid, but I really hope you’re wrong. I voted Libertarian last time. But, the Dems this time around genuinely scare me. When a major party is calling for a truth and reconciliation commission, blanket silencing of their political opponents, packing the SCOTUS, and getting rid of the Electoral College, it’s time to be scared. It’s reasonable to write off the notion of “the boogaloo”. Sensible people should. Civil Wars aren’t something that should be cheered. But, damned if the Democrats don’t seem hell bent on driving the country there.

  42. Ownbestenemy

    Okay. Dry cured bacon has been in the ice box for 6 days and recipes calls for 7 but feeling the pork belly it has the right consistency. Im thinking of pulling that and smoking ot today. The two wet cures can be either today or tomorrows.

    • Ownbestenemy

      Got the smoker lit up to 210 with some applewood for the smokey flavor. As long as I can smoke my meat under the Hidin Biden regime of Harris/Warren, I will live.

      • Rebel Scum

        You think you will be allowed to release such dangerous amounts of co2 into the air after our green revolution?

  43. Apples and Knives

    I’ve definitely been wrong before (I thought for sure people worldwide would rebel enough against Covid restrictions that we would have been done with them in summer), and maybe I’m just holding onto optimism about the American spirit that I should abandon, but I really can’t picture Biden winning.

  44. UnCivilServant

    As part of replacing the movement lost in working from home, I’ve added daily walks to my routine. To make it easier to keep to the routine, I set it so that the moment I disconnect from work, I walk to one of a set of predefined turnaround points and back. Today I decided to check how far these were from my house, since one felt closer, and I didn’t want to short change my exercise. Turns out they’re all exactly a half mile away, and the one that feels closer is the more arduous because it has a steeper incline.

    Huh.

  45. Hyperion

    My prediction: Those polls are just as wrong as they were in 2016. Trump wins by some margin greater than he did in 2016. Media melts down, democrat agitated riots, and we begin another 4 years of the same. Coup Two Electric Boogalo.

    Nothing more to say.

  46. Lord Humungus

    My favorite scenario: Trump wins but the Dems keep the house and take the senate. Trump impeached. We get President Pence for a few weeks, but drunk with power, he is impeached.

    Riots in the street, end of the republic, cats and dogs living in sin, etc.

    • Lord Humungus

      *impeached and removed.

      *Dems drunk with power.

      • leon

        I liked the version where Pence gets drunk with power too.

      • Lord Humungus

        GI Joe haircuts for everyone!

      • Animal

        GI Joe Race Bannon haircuts for everyone!

        Fixed.

    • R C Dean

      Riots in the street, end of the republic, cats and dogs living in sin, etc.

      Aren’t we already there?

      • Lord Humungus

        That’s a big Twinkie.

    • Gadfly

      Trump winning while the Dems take the Senate would grind things to a halt, unless the Dems woke up to the fact that Trump is willing to compromise as long as they don’t call him names (but I think that ship has sailed – are they gonna say he’s not racist after spending 5 years saying he is?). Impeachment requires 66 votes in the Senate to remove, so there is no way the Dems are ever removing him. They can impeach him morning, noon, and night, and nothing else will happen.

      • Hyperion

        I want the dems to loose the whitehouse, Sentate, and House, right after losing the SCOTUS. So that they all give up the will to live and collectively throw themselves from skyscrapers and bridges.

  47. Lord Humungus

    You know who else made predictions about the future…

    • Hyperion

      George Orwell?

    • Florida Man

      Nostradamus?

    • Ted S.

      Adahn?

      • Florida Man

        Not Adahn…

    • Ted S.

      The same people who make the PM Links?

  48. Hyperion

    Nickname of the week: Zoomin Toobin

    • Hyperion

      I think this post from the Twatter about covers it:

      “I’ve been working at home for 3 years and an “honest mistake” is farting without hitting the mute button or standing up and everyone seeing your Spiderman pajama pants. Keep. Your. Dicks. In. Your. Pants.”