Welcome to a new (ir)regular series, “Back of the Napkin”: a quick-and-dirty look into data and trends on a variety of topics (albeit mostly related to politics and current events). As the name implies, this series will be less rigorous statistical analysis and more what you get when you have a bit of spare time and a spreadsheet, but I think it can still provide some basic insight and a jumping off point for interesting discussion.
With the intro out of the way, let’s get into it. Today’s topic is: Presidential Popularity Contests.
As has been pointed out by many people, the winner of presidential contests in the US is never actually the choice of the majority, as turnout and difference of opinion mean that the most a candidate can ever hope to achieve is the support of a plurality of the people they hope to govern. With the recent election and inauguration in mind, I thought it might be interesting to look at the actual support (as a share of the electorate) that US presidents have been able to attract. Caveat: I pulled the underlying data from Wikipedia (so apply salt as needed), since that had all the data I needed in one place, but I did spot check a few elections and it seemed close enough for the purpose of this piece (within a few points). Turnout is of course an estimate, so that’s where the greatest discrepancy may occur. I took turnout multiplied by vote share received to calculate level of support among the electorate for each presidential candidate. The results are as follows:
Interestingly, the greatest level of turnout in US history happened in the mid to late 19th century. Granted, the US did not have universal suffrage then, but even so the turnout levels are consistently above what most subsets of the population achieve today. Consequently, the most popular presidents in US history come from this time frame. Ironically, if these numbers are correct, the president with the highest level of support was William Henry Harrison (1840 – 42.4% of the electorate), the man most famous for delivering the longest inaugural address and having the shortest tenure, dying after about a month in office. The person with the second highest level of support was Samuel Tilden (1876 – 41.6%), who had the election basically stolen from him by electoral and congressional shenanigans. The president with the third highest level of support, making him the most popular president to serve a full term, was U. S. Grant (1868 – 41.2%), who was infamous for his bad decision making when appointing cabinet members, who ran a thoroughly corrupt administration. Fourth and fifth place go to Abraham Lincoln (1864 – 40.6%) and William McKinley (1896 – 40.4%), both of whom were assassinated early in their second term. No president has broken 40% since McKinley, and overall turnout dropped, never to recover, after McKinley. Given the results of the leader-board, it may not be unfair to conclude that a segment of the electorate decided that their vote didn’t make much difference and consequently dropped out of the process.
Turning to more recent events, the past election (2020) showed the highest turnout since universal suffrage was instated (de jure if not de facto) in 1920, and in fact if preliminary estimates are correct it was the highest turnout since McKinley. The high turnout probably explains why this election bucked so many trends. Trump’s rallies did presage a high level of popularity – comparing presidents in the era of universal suffrage, the only Republicans to attract more support than Trump (2020 – 31.3%) were Ronald Reagan (1984 – 31.3%), Richard Nixon (1972 – 33.5%), Dwight Eisenhower (1952 – 34.9% and 1956 – 34.8%), and Herbert Hoover (1928 – 33.1%). This probably bodes ill for the wing of the Republican party that wants to be rid of Trump and his influence, as he’s clearly popular, more popular than the establishment types that preceded him. Of course, as opinion polls presaged, Trump also had a high level of unpopularity, resulting in Biden (2020 – 34.2%), who I think it is safe to say ran as more of a “no to him” than “yes to me” candidate, attracting greater support than any Democrat since LBJ (1964 – 37.8%), who coincidentally also ran a heavily negative campaign against his opponent. The only other Democrat in the era of universal suffrage to pull in more support than Biden was FDR (1936 – 37.1%). Also of note, the 2020 election was only the second time in the era of universal suffrage that both major candidates managed to attract more than 30% of the electorate, the first time being the hotly contested (and possibly stolen) election of 1960, between JFK (31.2%) and Nixon (31.1%). As if it weren’t already clear, this data indicates that we live in polarizing times.
Assorted Trivia:
- Both Biden (34.2%) and Trump (31.3%) attracted more support than Obama (2008 – 30.8%).
- The president with the least popular support was George Washington (1792 – 6.3%). Of course some states didn’t let people vote for president yet and no one was running against him, so why bother showing up to the polls?
- Barry Goldwater (1964 – 23.8%), who suffered one of the worst margins of defeat in electoral history, managed to pull more support than George H. W. Bush (1992 – 20.6%) and Bob Dole (1996 – 19.9%), which is funny considering the 90s is when the Republican party managed to recapture Congress for the first time in 40 years. “Stupid Party” is a worthy epithet. Perhaps they should have run Goldwater again?
- The only time a third party candidate managed to get more support than one of the two major parties was when they ran someone who had previously been elected president (Theodore Roosevelt, 1912). The implications for breaking the duopoly are rather dismal. Although, this does mean the Libertarian Party has two possible candidates if they want a shot at winning in 2024…
- Non-voters of the world, unite! Due to high turnout, Biden (34.2%) was the first president since Theodore Roosevelt (1904 – 36.8%) to be elected with more support than the non-voting option (33.3% in 2020, 34.8% in 1904). That’s right, every single president from Taft to Trump was less popular than staying home on election day.
If anyone notices any other interesting trends or factoids in the data, let me know. I’m interested to hear what you think.
Half the people who give a shit don’t actively him. That’s well short of 25% of the general voting age population.
Now maybe I’ll go read it.
Goldwater died in 1987. Then again there is nothing in Article 2 that specifies the President must be alive.
According to the Dems, death isn’t an insuperable barrier for a voter, so why should it be for a president?
Biden’s only mostly dead.
+1 Miracle Max
+1 Mutton, Lettuce, and Tomato sandwich
CommaLa stands at the ready.
I guess the Dems should retroactively impeach him, just to be sure.
While I still maintain that zombie Goldwater would have outperformed HW and Dole, and in fact been a better potential president than either, Goldwater was in fact still alive during both the 1992 and 1996 elections. He died in 1998 (he retired in 1987).
…I missread wikipedia.
DAMN YOU WIKI
You never misread it, it just had the incorrect information at that time.
Thanks, Gadfly, very interesting.
/Choir Member 33.3 per center
“33.3 per center”
*Elbow bumps Fourscore*
You’re welcome. Glad you found it interesting.
This does not seem to comport with the facts as presented in the data table. I see turnout in 1920 being 49.2%, the single lowest since 1828, and far lower than 2020.
Oh, now I think I see what you meant. You didn’t mean to imply that 1920 was a particularly high turnout, only that it began the era of universal suffrage.
Neeeeever miiiind!
Just started and already so many distortions and lies.
12:30 PM: Raskin says DeGette explained in “chilling detail” how the insurrectionists did what Trump told them to do. He claims Trump “cultivated” extremist insurrectionist groups to ready them for their most “dangerous mission”–to keep Trump in office. Raskin says Trump “road-tested” tactics for January 6. He talks about Trump’s “pattern and practice” of “inciting violence.”
12:40 PM: Raskin says Trump often “condoned” violence after the fact at his rallies and adds that Trump knew how to use the “power of the mob” to advance his political objectives in states like Michigan. Raskin says Trump criticized Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer on Twitter and called for “mass mobilization” of his supporters, and it was a sign of things to come. Raskin says after Trump’s “Liberate Michigan” tweet, armed supporters stormed Michigan’s House chamber building. He says this was a “dress rehearsal” for January 6, as the supporters carrying confederate flags looked like the rioters and insurrectionists on January 6.
What else would you have expected?
It’s lies and fabrications all the way down with these fuckers.
Meanwhile, in Antifa-land…
I thought yesterday was all-day “Trump made me do it”, and today was supposed to be “uh, no.” I guess the Dems needed another day to pontificate and prevaricate.
Shouldn’t 1824 be 100% Democrat? Or, I guess 26.9%?
Yes, you are correct. All 4 candidates in 1824 were Democrats, I just threw the losers into the “Other” bin because that was a weird election and I didn’t know quite how to deal with it (I started my chart at the present and worked backwards).
Jimmy Carter as the LP candidate in 2024?
Ummm..okay, I guess, I did vote for Barr after all.
I’d argue that we shouldn’t have it now.
*Whispers*
I agree.
Agreed.
Repeal the 19th Amendment!
(that’s what we’re talking about, right?)
I’m personally of the opinion that no one that doesn’t pay net taxes at a given level should get to vote. And that includes salaries paid by that level of government. I’ve been called some very bad things on social media for voicing this opinion.
That’s pretty much what I was driving at. Dole scroungers need not apply.
Bob Dole never scrounges! Bob Dole is a serious presidential candidate!
Bob Dole doesn’t appreciate the way you’re making fun of the way Bob Dole talks.
Word.
Anyone getting a gov check should not be eligible to vote. SS/government workers included.
Productive taxpayers only.
Thanks, Gadfly! This is really interesting!
And I am now officially a non-voter. Not sure what the fuck I was thinking…
I like that guy None of the Above, too.
I have taken, in the last 10 years or so, to voting, but writing in “None of the Above” for most contests.
I do think that “None of the Above” should be an option on all ballots. There should be a way to reject all options. And it would be useful to distinguish who is not voting for the candidates due to apathy from those who are not voting for them due to disgust. However, I can see why politicians don’t want that there. It would be quite embarrassing if “None of the Above” had a strong showing.
I’m confused.
In Canadian elections (regardless of electoral level), you always have the option of “spoiling the ballot,” and indeed, when I worked as a scrutineer, there were approved methods of doing so, to insure that the returning officer didn’t simply chuck your spoiled ballot into the trash, but instead had to count it as officially spoiled. Ever since, I’ve asked the attending RO in every election I’ve voted in what the procedure is for spoiling the ballot; if the RO replies “Is this some kind of a joke?,” I ask to see or speak with his/her superior.
In our training, it was emphasized that spoiling a ballot was a legitimate way for a voter to declare “none of the above,” although I don’t remember if we had any training at all on the status of “write-ins.”
I guess technically you can turn in a ballot here without filling in any options, but they don’t tabulate the non-voting ballots as a part of the results. A “none of the above” option would make that an actual option that actually shows up in the results. Some places in the US have historically had this as an option (and some may still, but I’m unsure).
–and you lost your millions…
^^ this.
I guess it took some blatantly obvious shenanigans for it to sink in that not only doesn’t my vote count on the abstract 150M idiots voting level, but my vote doesn’t count on the obvious fraud and collusion level, too.
I’ll find other ways to protect myself from the state.
We registered to vote in the new place in AK, mostly for local elections. I like local elections, as the candidates are generally more accessible. The Borough Mayor, for instance, owns and lives on the dog-sled kennel just a couple miles north of us; I can walk through the woods and go talk to him.
Some asshole in the Imperial City? Not so much.
Yes, I should have specified Federal.
I can still get a meeting with the Mayor, should I want to.
Some state level for me here.
I can, and do, talk with some of my state representatives. I’ve even been over to one’s house for dinner.
I can walk through the woods and go talk to him.
He won’t shoot you as a trespasser?
You’re welcome! I was a bit surprised to see how popular the non-voting option was, but after thinking about it more I can see the appeal more clearly. Although I’m still in the voting camp myself, as I like to have even a tiny say in things (even if that’s illusory), and even if I don’t like the candidates I do want to have a say on the ballot measures and state constitutional amendments that get sent the electorate’s way (my district will narrowly reject school board tax increases, so I gotta do my part to keep that side winning).
Bad gunlock:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44AtSHv80Zo
Uh huh…
Twitter has locked both James O’Keefe and Project Veritas out of their accounts for “violating our rules against posting private information”
Among the Presidents listed on Wikipedia, the first to show teeth in his official portrait was John F. Kennedy. The first to appear to show a smile (no teeth) was Thomas Jefferson, whose smile was rather wry. Since, and including Kennedy, 9 of 12 have showed teeth. The only one not to attempt a smile in the Smiley Era was Johnson. Obama showed no teeth but arguably smiled. Carter appears to have gotten caught at an inopportune moment by the portrait photographer, and due to stagflation, could not authorize another frame of film to be exposed.
OT: I fucking hate the IRS
Sent my return FedEx two months ago, received my delivery confirmation.
No indication on the website that they have even started processing my return.
After a literal dozen phone calls to worm my way thru the automated system and not get hung up on by it or pigeonholed in with an automated response and a hold time of only ten minutes or so I get a rep with a mouth full of marbles.
7 identity confirmation questions later, I say “I am calling to confirm that you have my return as it has been two months and there is no indication that you have it on your website.”
Rep: “You can check the status of your return on the website.”
Me: “The website doesn’t have the info, I want to know is you even have it in the received category waiting for processing.”
Rep: click… clack…sigh…click… “The system doens’t show anything. You need to allow more time.”
Me: “How much time? How do I even know you have it?”
Rep: “Sir, you just need to allow more time and call back.”
Me: “And if I call back later and it’s not showing in the system, you’re going to tell me I need to allow more time. That doesn’t help me. How can I verify you haven’t lost it?”
Rep: “Sir, call back in thirty days.”
Me: “And what then?”
Rep: “You need to allow more time.”
Me: *stifling multiple curse words* “Thanks” *click*
Rep: *tosses Scruffy’s return in the garbage while laughing sadistically*
I pictured them fishing his return out during the call and lighting it on fire while pretending to type on the keyboard…
They are pissed that you didn’t use USPS, because then they could do whatever they wanted to it to screw you over.
I was unable to file my NY income tax because they hadn’t provided some sort of necessary information to the software manufacturer. I have to keep checking back occasionally to see when it’s available.
Damn you Trump!
I blame UCS.
Sometimes (not all the time) you can press pound-zero-pound-zero and it will bypass the menu and immediately transfer you to a person.
/guy who used to call health insurance companies for a living
That all depends on the phone system. For some systems, your best bet (especially if they have to support some more rural areas) is to not press any buttons and hope they still have to support people on rotary phones.
/guy who implements and designs call flows for call centers for a living.
Haha yea, it doesn’t work 100% of the time. On some systems you just get the automated voice to say “Goodbye” and disconnect. For many state Medicaid helplines though, it can cut out several minutes of futzing around in those menus.
Sometimes I get transferred to a person immediately after unloading a string of curse words.
That’s a feature of some recording systems. If the system detects certain words, which may indicate an upset caller, it routes it to a special queue/manager queue.
Yeah… Depending on the recording systems, the time your call is on hold may be recorded as well.
As a loser who is stuck calling the IRS and state tax departments all the time…I have no real advice.
Write to your local US Rep.
31 Reasons Why I Won’t Take the Vaccine
Goo list. I particularly agree all of it, particularly with #1 – It isn’t a vaccine and does not contain weakened or killed covid virus like a Polio or Smallpox vaccine. And #31 – the whole thing sticks and makes me very suspicious.
It isn’t a vaccine
Apparently it does not meet the actual definition of a vaccine but it does meet the definition of gene-therapy. Hm…
So you’re saying it will turn the burgers gay.
Just reading this made my ass hurt. And now I wanna watch musical theater.
|BEEF ME UP SCOTTY
Two studly beef daddy patties, two slices of american cheese, pickles, diced white onion, house gay
oli, and shredded lettuce
I won’t take it because I want to live out my childhood fantasy of being Omega Man.
I’m assuming Heston over Matheson based on the name?
Velour jacket, ruffled shirt, rifle with whatever the fuck that is on top, Omega Man
I will accept no substitutes.
That would be an AN/PAS-4 Weaponsight, Infrared Telescope Assembly, circa 1962. Last of the active IR night optics.
https://ugca.org/07jan/night.htm
And let me be the first to complement you on your excellent taste.
…which reminds me: Jugsy being out of town has us video chatting. I noticed my Microsoft surface has a “front facing IR camera”
feature or bug ?
Pretty sure that’s an M14, too, but I will defer to our in-house expert.
Dude.
One of those in Sheldon’s link is, the one in scruffy’s link is not.
@sean I thought it was a BAR, but I wasn’t certain enough to make that declaration.
Nope. Looks like a BAR to me
BAR it is. I stand corrected. A scope seems an odd thing to put on a BAR.
That is an early infra-red scope system. Tres chic, a la 1960.
William Faulkner would understand.
What would Shakespeare think?
Not the iOmega man? you’re not going to be armed with zip and jaz drives and have the power of the click of death?
“The establishment insists that this medical treatment is safe. They cannot possibly know this because the long-term effects are entirely unknown, and will not be known for many years.”
That’s the reason I won’t take it. And also, because TMITE and if they want me to take it, I’m not doing it for that reason alone.
It’s just galling to see the Left insist that of course the vaccine is safe because Big Pharma, the corporate media, and the politicians said it was. I’ve been treated like a lunatic for simply saying that I get all the regular vaccines but would prefer not to take one for which we have zero data about long-term side effects.
I’ve worked in a medical research environment for 12 years now. One of the things I specialize in, is tracking human subjects research that involves drugs.
Nothing, I mean ever, passes medical trials this fast, I mean NEVER. It is unheard of. There is no way we can know the long term effects of this treatment. And they want to give this thing that has not passed clinical trials yet, to be given to everyone. Total fucking bullshit driven by political motives. And like has been said, if you take this thing and get really ill from it a year or two from now, you have zero recourse, because the government forced it.
Science is fucking dead now, folks, it has ben replaced by political agendas.
There is no way we can know the long term effects of this treatment.
This is true. The studies have been wrecked. The double-blind is gone – any subject can find out if they got the vaccine or a placebo. And, of course, every single person who got the placebo is going out and getting the real vaccine. Everybody who participated in the studies did so because they desperately wanted the vaccine and wanted to get it as fast as possible.
Did you receive the Astra Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine between February and March 2021? If so you could be entitled to compensation. //Daytime television 2030
*fumbles with phone, can’t dial number with post-vaccine flippers*
*to receive a dialing wand, mash the buttons on your keypad… now*
Compensation will be a check for $2.39 and a free small cone at DQ (vanilla only).
And?
Or.
LOL
I’m not getting it.
It’s not a vaccine. A vaccine by definition provides immunity to a disease. This does not provide immunity to anything. In a best-case scenario, it merely reduces the chance of getting a severe case of a virus if one catches it. Hence, it is a medical treatment, not a vaccine. I do not want to take a medical treatment for an illness I do not have.
I don’t think this is true.
Normal vaccine therapy injects foreign material (live or dead viruses) into the body to trigger the immune system to recognize the virus and fight it when the body becomes infected.
The mRNA vaccine inserts “code” into the cells to manufacture a protein found in the virus to trigger the immune system to recognize the virus and fight it when the body becomes infected.
In both cases, the immunity that results can be complete or partial. The flu virus is notorious for producing partial immunity that may prevent infection or merely minimize symptoms or do nothing if they designers guessed wrong.
So the mechanism is different, but the results should be the same.
The issue for me isn’t the effectiveness of the vaccine, but the technology which has never been fielded before let alone to 100s of millions of people with the barest minimum of testing.
So, I am actually for bypassing most of the horseshit imposed by the FDA. I am for anyone that wants it should be able to get it as soon as they desire.
However, I am opposed to the blanket immunity provided by the government to let the vaccine makers off the hook if shit hits the fan.
On a personal level, I will probably get the vaccine later in the spring after a few 10s of millions of doses have been administered. It’s a tough balancing act between being elderly with comorbidities and not knowing what fallout might occur over the next 25 years or so.
It’s not a vaccine in the classical way. It’s something entirely new and that makes it even more insane that it was pushed right past the trial phase into production.
It’s not a vaccine in the classical way.
Agreed. New technology to trigger the same response as a classical vaccine.
. . . . . even more insane that it was pushed right past the trial phase into production.
Correct again.
Making it available to anyone that wants it, is ok by me. Let people decide their own risk tolerance.
Making it mandatory to operate in the public sphere . . . . well, let’s just say . . . . well, I’m not actually going to post anything that gets archived on the web.
It wasn’t. At least, not really. On the one I’m most familiar with, knowing some folks who worked on it, all the trials were done, just concurrently rather than sequentially. Regulatory reviews were expedited. It was pushed into production before approval “at risk,” but the manufactured product is the product that FDA approved for distribution.
Was the process rushed? Sure. But it’s just not accurate to say it was “pushed right past the trial phase,” because it wasn’t. The trials were done.
The trials were done.
Trials were done, yes. Trials previously required for vaccines were not done, because they follow patients for years looking for long-term effects.
Whether we should have postponed a ‘Vid vaccine for the usual long-term trials, or whether they should be required for any vaccine, is a different question.
I don’t think there hasn’t been anything close to enough time to run proper trials. They need toxicology studies first, followed by Phase 1 dosing with healthy volunteers, then Phase 2 for safety/efficacy, Phase 3 for efficacy, and Phase 4 post-marketing surveillance for long-term safety. There’s no way to run them concurrently and produce reliable data.
Recruitment, administration, close out, data analysis, data auditing, write-up, and review of just a Phase 2 RCT takes years.
Funny, my BIL has been saying the same thing. Yet, he used to complain all the time about how the FDA took way too much time to approve new drugs and miraculous cures he heard about on the internet.
The FDA should just start slapping the GRAS label on everything!
Oh I didn’t even factor in the time for FDA submission and review. This is just the logistics for running trials. I was assuming near instant FDA review/approval. You might be able to get away with 3-5 years for toxicology and Phases 1-3 with FDA approval removed and a ridiculously short follow-up period. With FDA review, the average time from benchtop discovery to a new approved drug is 10-15 years. Phase 4 continues after approval.
Sell the FDA to Underwriters Laboratories and let them use the name to label food and drugs. Let the consumer decide if “FDA approved” matters or not.
Then do the USDA, EPA, etc.
“Was the process rushed? Sure. But it’s just not accurate to say it was “pushed right past the trial phase,” because it wasn’t. The trials were done.”
Dude, I respect your opinion, but that is total BS. That’s not how clinical trials are done. You can’t just change all the rules, because of a political agenda, on the fly. Things like efficacy and safety have suddenly been abandoned, just like that. Like I said, science is dead.
I’m going to flip and do my reverse opinion that drugs and devices take waaaayyyyy too long to get approved, because this one is just the opposite extreme. 100% because of a political agenda. That is not objective science, it is total fucking bullshit.
I think this sums it up very well. I have MS, I take a rather industrial-strength Immunosuppressant on a weekly basis. But I also keep myself in general good health and while I know that the virus is real (duh) I am not innumerate and can see what groups are most susceptible to its dangers. I am not in those groups. I am less fearful of this virus than I am of being in a terminal car wreck, and I am not very afraid of that.
If the vaccine is bad, I would rather not take it. If it is good, there are a lot more people who would benefit from it than me.
A vaccine by definition provides immunity to a disease.
People seem to think immunity means that every COVID virus you come in contact with dies instantly.
No, immunity means your immune system is capable of defeating the virus, with strong immunity meaning it will do so quickly and without making you symptomatic.
Numbers I’m seeing are 44 million vaccinated in the US as of this morning (presumably that includes folks getting the 2nd shot, so potentially 22 million max).
Right now I’m sitting at home for the 5th week (out of 6) in 3 months (due to either exposure or travel). Of course my manager is saying that vaccination may not prevent the CO from sending me home, but it’s one less excuse. Just a PitA.
Just a friendly reminder that progressive non-profits have been coordinating with tech companies and universities to identify, target and “modify the behavior” of people skeptical of the Covid vaccine since last fall.
I don’t know if it’s safe or not in the long term to take the vaccine. The fact that drug companies have been shying away from mRNA vaccines over the past 20 years has me skeptical of the vaccines using that technology. I’ll not be getting in line for that shot.
The fact that drug companies have been shying away from mRNA vaccines over the past 20 years has me skeptical of the vaccines using that technology.
The question is why the may or may not have shied away from mRNA vaccines. Because they don’t work well? Or because the regulatory burden is too high for a product that doesn’t have high profit margins.
Now that Uncle Sam is paying billions of dollars to vaccine makers and removing liability from fucking up, let’s do this!
Not very reassuring.
I can’t imagine why anyone of normal health and under 50yo would take the vaccine.
I’ve read that it was a mix. Concerns about side effects in certain applications plus cost concerns
I’ve been telling people the following:
“I’ve been disappointed with the Moderna vaccine. I’ve had two doses, its had plenty of time to rewrite my DNA, and my hair still hasn’t grown back. I’m beginning to suspect you can’t believe everything you read on the internet.”
Turns out, some people really don’t have any sense of humor at all.
That’s not what it’s supposed to do.
Have you been sleep voting?
*sigh*
Hair loss is more a sign of moral failing than a genetic trait.
*Stares at bald head in mirror, nods in agreement*
We need to get our best scientists working on hair loss. Hair loss and extending erections. What could go wrong?
The masses are taking all of this way too seriously and also buying into all the b.s. online.
Speaking of presidents, did you know that bad orange man killed 400,000 people on just his last day in office? What, you don’t read the news?
TMITE
He will continue to kill until he is prohibited from holding future office.
I decided to make Lingonberry cookies. Turns out the lingonberry preserves I got were thinner than jelly, and had nothing ‘solid’ for textural contrast. I could add either raisins or dried cranberries to compensate, but I’m not sure which would work better.
Opinions?
Crushed walnuts.
I think crushed/diced nuts would add a nice textural component. But if you’re looking to thicken up the jelly (depending on the type of cookie), you could also do a corn starch slurry to thicken it up.
It’s mixed into the dough already. But if baked like that you get a cookie with a single texture throughout.
Cranberries.
Cranberries are native to N America and similar to Ligonberries which are native to Europe.
The base recipe I was changing was a cranberry lemon cookie where the lemon came from a can of premade pie filling that also provided a lot of the dough’s moisture. Swapping out the lemon filling for the lingonberry preserves created a workable dough of similiar consistancy, and the flavor did lend itself to just sticking with the cranberries, which I have on hand.
Well, my first test batches came out.
The lingonberry is subtle in the finished cookie, so I could probably feed these to anyone (unless they have celiac disease and the bread flour would ruin them)
2:00 PM: Cicilline detailing all of the injuries Capitol police officers suffered because of the insurrection Trump “incited.” He asks Senators to listen to how the “Trump mob” is cursing at and pushing police officers. “So much for backing the blue,” Cicilline says.
1) Antifa/BLM could not be reached for comment.
2) can’t back the blue if they don’t back you.
How many Secret Service were sent to the hospital during the riots in June? Eleven or so?
At least two of the three cops killed were killed by cops.
And I have questions about those “suicides” as well. I do not believe we got a how/when/where explanation.
2:06 PM: Cicilline playing videos of the damage the Trump mob caused because they had no respect for the Capitol building. He is citing example after example of the Trump mob defiling the Capitol. He says the “damage done to the building is a stain upon all of us.”
Oh, fuck off with your “hallowed halls of democracy” horseshit. It is a wretched hive of scum and villainy.
2:09 PM: Cicilline says Trump incited a mob because he was trying to “become a king” to “rule over us.”
Because that is how it works…
I’ve never heard an explanation of how taking over a government building means you are in charge of the government. The assassination of Lincoln was part of a bigger plot, where a number of people in line for president were also killed. That at least had some sort of possible way to work.
No, it didn’t. Booth’s fantasies notwithstanding, the South was under the boot heel even more so once Lincoln was killed.
It would be similar if you ransacked the Temple at Apollo at Delphi. Last man/woman standing becomes Pythia.
These people truly believe that their halls are hallowed and that whoever is standing in them is ruler for a day.
Every single word that has been said about that even is complete and total horseshit. Every word of it.
I’m not getting it.
Try adjusting your rabbit ears.
I don’t know if it’s safe or not in the long term to take the vaccine. The fact that drug companies have been shying away from mRNA vaccines over the past 20 years has me skeptical of the vaccines using that technology. I’ll not be getting in line for that shot.
If anybody asks, I’ll say “Because they told us straight out it doesn’t work.”
If it’s so goddam effective, why are they pushing so hard to keep their prevention kabuki in place?
If it’s so goddam effective, why are they pushing so hard to keep their prevention kabuki in place?
This, I think is security theater. It’s impossible to know if another person has been vaccinated or not. So you can’t know whether or not to be outraged when some other person is in the grocery store without a mask. It would be impossible for businesses open to the public to police mask wearing.
So they have to say the vaccine works, but maybe you can still spread the disease anyway, so wear the fucking mask comrade.
Its behavior modification on a grand scale. They’re seeing what they can get away with, and what people will tolerate.
I’m amenable to tolerating taking the vaccine.
I am not amenable to wearing a mask for even 1 second starting 2 weeks after I take the first dose.
Every single one of them can go fuck themselves.
Ditto.
It’s a trial to see how compliant the public will be when the come out with the one that will intentionally kill 80% of the population. It may even be inert and do nothing. It’s 90% effective? Effective at what? Convincing people that they didn’t get really sick with Covid because they took it? Well, guess fucking what? More than 90% of people who get Covid already to not get really sick.
What is the over/under on the number of weeks we will be masked/locked down after the last recorded case of covid19?
Until SMOD hears my prayers, is my guess. There’s always another virus out there.
There will never be a “last recorded case of covid-19.” At some point, probably before an election, the bans will be lifted and the pols will declare victory.
Well, the Ohio curfew has expired. I believe bars and restaurants still are stuck with the 22:00 last call time though. But DeWine knows the reason the cases dropped:
There were no other changes in January that would explain the sudden drop off, nor could it be that the majority of deaths that already happened in the nursing homes were a culling event.
Well shit… some more searching, and it looks like we got our old last call of 02:00 back as well!
When in OKC, I was talking to my bartender friend and she said that the Restaurant and Bar Association immediately sued the city when they tried to slap a curfew and they backed off. I wish more of those associations would do that…that is why they exist…well that and to get sweet kickbacks and go to cocktail parties, but that is beside the point.
The lawsuits here were being run by several different groups in a couple of venues, but most of them got slapped down by the judges and there was some cover from the Ohio Liquor department that backed DeWine. The legislature tried to slap it down, but they couldn’t even overturn the veto of the vote to restrain the powers of the governor.
hospitalizations dropped probably because residents of nursing homes have been vaccinated
I’m sure that was part of it, but if Ohio’s experience is anything like ours, probably a small part.
(1) When were they vaccinated? We’re still working on it, but given the lag on vaccine effectiveness, it wouldn’t start to really affect hospitalization for weeks after they were vaccinated. Unless they got their first shot in December (unlikely on any scale), it couldn’t have had more than a marginal effect.
(2) How many were vaccinated?
(3) How much hospitalization in December was from nursing homes? We saw a much smaller percentage of nursing home residents in December than we did during our first surge last summer.
Its hard to get data on hospitalization, but it dropped pretty much everywhere by the end of January. Bell curves gonna bell curve, yo.
. . . the majority of deaths that already happened in the nursing homes were a culling event.
I’ve always been a fan of the “dry tinder” explanations. ”Culling” works too. My niece, months ago, heard about all of the over-60 “boomer remover” deaths, shrugged and said “time to thin the herd, I guess.”
She’s a country kid. She doesn’t get along well with cityfolk with refined sensibilities. And I don’t take the “thin the herd” mentality personally (though a lot of my fellow Boomers do). ?
So you can’t know whether or not to be outraged when some other person is in the grocery store without a mask. It would be impossible for businesses open to the public to police mask wearing.
Boo fucking hoo. If “you” have been vaccinated with an effective anti-plague, wht diffrence does it make. If the voodoo s
That was weird. That comment posted on its own.
The voodoo shot either works or it doesn’t. If nothing changes, that means it doesn’t work. That’s my line of argument. Make the simpletons own their love of quackery.
Read my comment just above…
Turns out, some people really don’t have any sense of humor at all.
*staggers off in direction of fainting couch*
Let people decide their own risk tolerance.
That trick never works.
Click bait never lies . . . . . See this one trick . . . .
Even the pileups are bigger in Texas.
A massive pileup involving dozens of vehicles on an icy Texas interstate trapped drivers in their cars and shut down the road indefinitely.
At least five people were killed in the pileup on Interstate 35 in Fort Worth, Texas, that involved 75 to 100 vehicles, Officer Daniel Segura of the Fort Worth Police Department said in a morning news briefing.
Multiple people were trapped in their vehicles, the Fort Worth Fire Department reported, and rescuers had trouble reaching them because of the ice on the road. A MedStar ambulance was also involved in the crash that happened about 6 a.m. CST Thursday.
“We are going vehicle by vehicle to make sure that anybody that is still trapped in their vehicle has been extricated, if possible. There’s a lot of vehicles to go through,” Fort Worth Fire Department public information officer Mike Drivdahl said at the briefing.
At least 36 people were taken to hospitals, MedStar spokesman Matt Zavadsky said at the briefing about 10 a.m. Thursday. Several people were critically injured, Zavadsky said.
Wait, what?
It’s been in the icy temperature range in DFW for a couple days. Some of that is supposed to hit Houston this weekend.
Ice storms are a thing. I would have expected this more on the D side than the FW, to be completely honest.
Most ridiculous driving conditions I’ve been in was OKC, New Years day 1993. Hours of sleet — so the ground was covered in ice ball bearings — followed by freezing rain. The wipers could keep the windshield clear, but the ice would creep in from the edges of the windshield and eventually stop the wipers resulting in immediate opacity.
I had to stop every 15 minutes to scrape the ice off my headlights.
We had an ice storm here (Dallas) a few years back that put a solid 1.5″ glaze of ice on everything. We got 4″ of sleet/freeing rain, all said. It brought down tree limbs a foot in diameter. Power was out for days, and we sheltered in our house (we were in the process of moving out of our apartment) knowing that it had a fireplace.
It was the only time I’ve spun a car as an adult, and it happened at 5 mph. A turn on the way to the home improvement store (to get a chainsaw) had the slightest tilt
to it, and gravity dislodged the rear wheels.
It was -18 F when I got home this morning, but the early winter was mild. My boss asked if I remembered the last time we had a mild winter, and I recalled exactly. 10 years ago, when the Packers played the Super Bowl in Dallas, that day it was colder in Dallas than it was in Green Bay. That winter there was almost no snow the whole winter and it stayed just below 32 F for pretty much the whole winter. Almost like a pattern given ten years before that was also a mild winter…Naw, CO2 makes weather worse no matter other conditions…
It happens every couple of years, though a 100 car incident may have broken some records. I believe my decision to work from home today was wise.
Glad you are safe. #WhiteKnight!
Thanks! On the other hand, if I were trapped in my car, I wouldn’t be listening to this covid vaccine webinar right now.
(You guys see that, she’s totally into me!)
*Nods and pretends I’m listening while thinking about something else*
That is interesting, please tell me more about your day.
(I’ve got her right where I want her!)
We both have to work tonight. Stop drinking and eat something.
I don’t have to work tonight, commoner! I’ve got the next two nights off.
(This is all best read in The Hat voice)
Huh.
Tough call on that one.
I was thinking of this one I avoided a couple years ago. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/12/22/virginia-crash-35-hurt-63-cars-collide-icy-interstate-64-bridge/2727582001/
We even get snow here in the DFW area. Granted, not every year (in fact I think it’s been four or five years since we got a good snow), but it happens.
It can happen. This game was played on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas.
Wouldn’t have happened if they didn’t have the hole in the roof.
True. Today, Jerruh would have the roof closed.
There was a pile-up along those lines in heavy fog outside Madison, WI when we were living there. Don’t think it killed that many people, though.
Yes, Texas gets terrible ice storms regularly. I’ll take a blizzard over an ice storm any day.
I never saw a symmetrical tree in real life until I got to College Station. Between the constant wind, the tornadoes and the ice storms, all the trees in Oklahoma are misshapen.
I blame the fact that people in the DFW area so rarely adjust their driving to roadway conditions. If people are out on the road, most of them are driving as if it is a clear summer day, regardless of actual weather. That’s guaranteed to cause problems.
Yeah, Californians are really bad at driving in any sort of inclement weather.
I saw what you put down and I will pick it up for you.
I-35 through Fort Worth is dangerous on a clear summer day.
rush hour?
where?
I”ll admit I was more of a US-121 guy
US-67 becomes US-281
Once I was helping a guy move from Ft. Hood to San Antonio, and 281 south was the route we took. (He was mexican, so of course there was a caravan of cars/trucks)
Driving through central Tejas on a dark, rainy, Friday night, I put a cassette in.
This came on.
Ahh, memories
Thanks for the interesting read!
You’re welcome!
Gadfly: Really interesting. I’m looking forward to future Back o’ the Napkins.
One I have always wanted to do is re-run GDP numbers so they are net of federal borrowing. Federal spending, and thus borrowing, is included in GDP. Including borrowing strikes me as counting your credit card charges as income, inflating GDP and giving a false picture. So, if you could enact my labor, that would be great.
So what if I only ‘make’ $2,000 a year, I’ve got a $100,000 limit on my credit card!
Either you’ve got a foolish bank, or a trust fund.
Foolish, or mendacious…If you’re calling the Chinee that I think that’s enough to label you a #racist and get you cancelled.
The CCP are evil genocidal monsters who deserve to be fed to their own organ harvesting processes.
You’re union only gives you a +15 protection, but watch out for that…I don’t know enough about about table top games to finish that joke…
That’s a good idea. I’ll add it to my list and if it’s not too involved I’ll probably tackle that sometime.
So probably the most libertarian president ever.
*vomits*
2:50 PM: Castro says the Senate floor is sacred along with its traditions.
I really need to stop following this garbage. It is exceedingly damaging to my calm.
Raul? I thought he retired.
It is the modern day Temple that has become a den of robbers.
Wait. Qanon Shaman is the Messiah?
I was going to go there..but I felt it better for the reader to determine the plot.
I really need to stop following this garbage.
Yes. Yes, you do.
Thanks Gadfly! I know you explained sources here but (and this is just my bad reading) is your turnout a % of the eligible voting population or of the total population at the time?
Eligible voting population.
Thanks.
This is an interesting analysis.
And this:
Non-voters of the world, unite! Due to high turnout, Biden (34.2%) was the first president since Theodore Roosevelt (1904 – 36.8%) to be elected with more support than the non-voting option (33.3% in 2020, 34.8% in 1904). That’s right, every single president from Taft to Trump was less popular than staying home on election day.
made me smile.
Given the extent of mail-in voting, staying home on election day became even more popular in 2020.
Even when their homes were vacant lots and commercial buildings, right?
So the guy a few cubes down has a spiffy Augmented Reality headset. Whenever it receives a command it makes the ST:TNG communicator sound effect to indicate receipt.
So, Doritos 3D are back. But not the flavor I liked, Jalapeno Cheddar. Odd thing is, Jalapeno Cheddar seems to have been available as a regular Dorito flavor this whole time. Fuck these lying Messicans!
It has been a regular Dorito flavor in Canada this whole time. (How do I miss whole words like that?)
Got a voicemail at my home number from my PA senator, trying to get me to participate in a live vaccination q&a with a panel of “experts”.
Huh.
“I took it and I had a hard on I couldn’t get rid of for a week!”
If you were into Encyclopedia Brown, like me, The Kid Detective is a good flick.
Thanks. I downloaded it a few days ago but hadn’t been able to watch it yet. Then Mike and Jay had a video about it today that piqued my interest. Your endorsement seals the deal; I’ll watch it tonight.
I watched it after the RLM video. Many of childhood adventures are lifted strait from that 90s Encyclopedia Brown show. Kind of wished I’d though of it, to be honest.