I’ve been waiting for the pilot shortage all of my life, and I think it actually arrived! The WSJ has been especially concerned, as they usually are when labor manages to clip off a toenail of wage increase from the Wall Street bull, but it really is an interesting situation. Why is there a “shortage” and what can be done about it?
First, is there really a shortage? No, and one isn’t coming. You can be flying a regional airliner 2 years from today if you have enough money. If they set the regulations back to 2013 you could be there in 6 months. There are a lot of people that drop out of the industry at every stage so there is a large pool of inactive pilots out there. Flying is cool, so if the economics even sort of work, there is a large pool of people willing to give it a shot.
Some airline pilots are well paid, with the caveat of a very high standard deviation. The rule of thumb is 1000 times the hourly rate, which is up to $300+ per hour plus up to a 16% direct contribution to a 401k or pension. You can look up the hourly rates at Airline Pilot Central, which is fairly accurate. For a young person that makes all the correct choices and is lucky, airline pilot can be a $10+ million dollar career. How could there possibly be a shortage?
It helps if you think of airline pilot more like professional athlete than an office job. You might make a lot of money, but there are a lot of pitfalls from which it is difficult or impossible to recover. Airlines commonly file bankruptcy to shed pesky union contracts, pensions, and to cram down salaries of all their employees. They also go out of business, and if you are a captain at a liquidated airline, you don’t get hired as a captain at the next airline, you start over as a copilot with the worst possible schedule and lowest pay, just like you were 23 again. Health problem in your 6 month checkup? You’re out of work (albeit with some LTD payment that varies by airline). Regulation violation? Drunk driving? Fired and starting over or out of the industry. You can’t even take an anti-depressant to cope with your 3rd divorce brought on by being gone 15 days per month.
Airline pilot has a brutal exit rate due to the above reasons. Everyone has a backup career / side-gig to handle the furloughs, health and family issues that interrupt your career. Many find a lot of success with the backup and when trouble hits it is more advantageous to keep going with that instead of playing the pilot lottery. Mergers like the Spirit/Frontier announced today mean someone is going to get screwed, since seniority at a single airline is what governs your quality of life, from where you live, to which holidays you miss, to how much you can earn.
Training is expensive and the first jobs are miserable. Paying dues is stupid but not uncommon for many careers, aviation ramps that up to another level. Pay/borrow for college, then throw on another $100k in student loans, then you need to work as a flight instructor for $10-25 per hour for a couple years, then <$50 per hour for a few more years in an unstable regional airline. If you’ve got family money/good advice, nothing to lose, and you get the brass ring? Excellent, that math works out great and you will be wealthy. What happens if you jump for the ring and miss? You have to pay up front, the loan exists and will be paid back regardless of what you earn. What if you find you don’t have what it takes after your training is complete? What if you have a medical event? What if your spouse or family can’t handle the separation or moving/living in the city you need?
It’s fun to dump on the new generation of lazy kids of the magenta line, but I think they really are getting better advice now in terms of what careers really cost and how the downside risks play out. 50 kids borrow $100,000 each, that’s $5,000,000 of student loans. 1 or 2 of them get to a $300,000 per year career, maybe 5 more are pros elsewhere… but what happened to the others and how did they pay off their loans? Like medicine running out of primary care doctors that can do math, that information is out there now, so people with options and analytical skills look elsewhere, those left are inexperienced ones that don’t understand the risk up front (beware of airline corporate outreach, womyn and minorities). Couple that with the uncertain regulatory environment surrounding automation (single pilot aircraft) and sizable increases in experience required for each level of the job and it makes sense to think very carefully about your personal risk tolerance before signing that loan doc and jumping into the cockpit.
How I suspect things will play out: 1) mergers of ULCC’s 2) no mergers but a few more mainline bankruptcies 3) retirement age raised to 67 4) collapse/consolidation of regional model so fewer on larger mainline aircraft 5) the 1500 hour rule will be reduced again via loophole. I don’t expect single-pilot passenger operations in the next 20 years, but after that who knows.
tldr; It’s just clickbait. Airline life is high risk/high reward, the road to wide body captain with the big paycheck is littered with the bodies of those that were unlucky or just couldn’t cut it. Middle class people don’t shoot for pro baseball player anymore, same with airline pilots.
You forgot about the greenies wanting to eliminate air travel except for the connected.
Isn’t it the traditional way to get your pilot training free in Air Force or Navy and then join an airline when your second enlistment term is up?
It was, but there’s only 14,000 military pilots at any time now, less than 2000 come available in any given year. Airlines will be hiring that many every month for the next 10 years.
I wanna fly jets, sir!
A long time ago, I worked with an engineer who left to take a job at a regional. He said during the interview one of the first questions they asked was “how are you going to pay your bills during the first year?”. He expected to survive off his savings until he got paid well enough to make ends meet.
I don’t understand about a third of what you said, but the anti-depressant DQs me and probably half the country.
Tangentially, on the news today was a piece about the shortage of people with CDLs, and the brand-spanking-new regulations that make getting one harder, more expensive, and 3x longer.
If anywhere remotely close to half the country is on anti-depressants, I’m going to need some myself.
It would be higher if people with DoE and DoD clearances we’re allowed to take them.
We have to make do with keeping a stiff upper lip and/or a stiff drink.
Oh! Good point. And, topically, anyone with a pilot’s license.
I bring that up every time I hear someone say that there’s “no stigma” associated with mental health.
?
Seriously? That’s enraging.
Is this a state or national thing? Either way, it seems a bit counterproductive.
Being an OTR trucker has slowly and consistently become harder and harder to do, all in the name of one of our new gods, Safety.
The guy who was interviewed said that when people think of CDL, they think of OTR, and go nah bruh, but they’re needed for everything else too, from busses to dump/trash trucks to snowplows. So he was basically begging for CDLs, not necessarily OTR.
I like driving long distances. I took a look at OTR, saw where they were going with the uncookable log books, speed governors, and GPS, and noped right out.
One of my bros got a CDR and wound up not using it & working in a factory instead. ??♂️
For sure, CDL in general is much harder. The things you mention about OTR are what I was mostly thinking about.
To this day, I have some sort of conditioned reaction when I see a weigh station when driving down a highway. Just as my brainstem is quickly surveying whether my log book is up to date and good to go, my upper brain reminds me that I don’t have to do that anymore.
I haven’t driven commercial since 1999.
Do not recommend.
I’m a little overweight and my log book’s ‘way behind
Speaking of truckers, Gordilocks had an interview with some commie outfit today. Don’t go into the comment section unless you really want to get pissed.
Commie outfit? No thanks.
Good on Gord, tho, for going outside the echo chamber.
Yeah, I don’t know if I could do that.
Well, the interview is on YouTube. But near as I can tell from the comments, the channel is a socialist outfit. Although, the interviewer was not hostile and appeared maybe even supportive at times.
*caveat…I have to admit I didn’t watch the entire thing. I’m judging it from the first half I watched and from the disappointment from many of the commenters.
Fucking Tulpa is writing articles now?!?!
(and interesting ones, at that)
Too many links, not enough pictures of hot stewardesses.
/waits for Q to take the bait
hoof is no more Tulpa than you or I buddy!
I was afraid of that. Just didn’t recognize the handle.
I wondered old timer, 😉
So, since I can’t tell a newbie to fuck off, grant me an indulgence…
Fuck off Yusef-Tulpa!
Hey, how about me?
/runs away, sobbing, for lack of recognition
Fourscore, I could never tell you to f’ off…you’ve given me honey!
#nohomo
And a hearty Fuck Off to the both of you Gents!
Huzzah and cheers!
This is cute….
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/20/opinions/durham-motion-hillary-clinton-syndrome-obeidallah/index.html
????
Even better, “it doesn’t even include the word infiltrate”
They are even dumber than advertised. Worse, they think they are the smartest people in the room.
Even worse than that, in their echo chamber, they are often right.
We are being condescended to by our inferiors.
I picked the wrong week to re-read Mark Steyn’s “After America”.
He’s witty and all, but man, the main message is depressing.
Looks like I picked the wrong week…
“Airline life is high risk/high reward, the road to wide body captain with the big paycheck is littered with the bodies of those that were unlucky or just couldn’t cut it.”
The best way to get there is to be the lead singer of a hugely successful metal band.
+100000 Bruce!
\m/
Nice article, Hoof. My brother in law is a pilot. I wasn’t able to make his bachelor’s party, so I took him out for drinks and to a strip club. When we got there, it turned out one of the better looking girls was a flight attendant he often flew with. She was excited to see him and gave several dances on the house. Pilots have an interesting work environment. Sounds like the union must be good allies against HR.
LOL that could have turned out more awkward – good for them.
How I suspect things will play out: 1) mergers of ULCC’s 2) no mergers but a few more mainline bankruptcies 3) retirement age raised to 67 4) collapse/consolidation of regional model so fewer on larger mainline aircraft 5) the 1500 hour rule will be reduced again via loophole. I don’t expect single-pilot passenger operations in the next 20 years, but after that who knows.
You forgot bail-outs for airlines.
Those are a given and not even worth mentioning.
It is the water in which airlines swim.
Another option is going to a part 141 school, that way you can get financial aid, and a 2 year degree out of it. It’s been a couple years, but I think they were quoting 70-75k including room and board, up through commercial. The good ones get their CFI’s and stay and teach for 2 years, getting paid 8 hours per day. Then they go straight into a Dash 8 or ERJ.
U of Grand Forks, has an excellent flight school…but you have to live in Norf Dakoda.
…where they have one of the premier D1 hockey teams in the country.
You just had to rub my nose in it, didn’t you?
I wish I would have linked this that day you told me “we’ll see what happens this weekend!“
Northeastern is in Boston
(fine, 15th. But still, nice to see the alma mater ranked again)
hahahahahahaha
Cool write up Hoof! glad I don’t want to learn, R/C is bad enough,
/Crash…..
OT: Canadian House of Commons votes in favor of Emergencies Act use
The House of Commons has passed a motion to approve the extraordinary and temporary measures in the Emergencies Act, which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked last week in a bid to end blockades in Ottawa and at several border crossings.
The motion to confirm the declaration of emergency passed with the New Democrats voting in favour alongside the minority Liberal government.
Aaaand it’s over, Farewell Canada,
O Canada, glorious and free!
O Canada, we stand on guard, we stand on guard for thee.
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
?
I remember some years ago scratching China off the list of countries I would never visit again – I did not expect to have to scratch off Canada.
nevereverSame here.
That is deeply sad.
???
“temporary”
LOL.
Meanings don’t have words anymore. Webster’s will just make a slight tweak to the definition of temporary and all will be well.
If you can’t say what you mean, you can never mean what you say.
On the plus side there are likely to be plenty more batches of the ice cops trampling peaceful people with horses. Well, plus if you’re into that kind of thing.
goddammit
Has the Senate voted yet? I had read that it was expected to pass the House but that the real action was trying to convince enough Senators to vote no.
They playing parliamentarian games. Politicians are disingenuous asshole regardless of party or political system. In other news, dog bites man.
Principals over principles.
Where’s my shocked face?
Fuckers willing to obliterate basic human rights and liberties for purely political considerations are some of the lowest, vilest scum in modern societies.
Couldn’t have said it any better. Light posts and woodchippers are what these people deserve.
Yup. Absolutely disgusting.
I hope they all face the wrath of voters, if they have it in them and I’m not sure they do anymore.
The ones that I don’t understand are all of the people who are cheerleading it. Even more bizarrely, they are the same people who were rapidly in favor of burning down buildings last year. It makes my brain hurt watching people believe literally anything and everything they are told no matter how contradictory, and doing so with great passion.
I always wondered how Nazi Germany worked. It never made any sense to me that people could act that way. I never understood how mob rule trials in the old south could have possibly gone the way they went. I always thought that everyone involved was cynical, with a wink and a nod .
Now I know better. This is how humans are wired. They are herd animals who believe whatever the herd tells them to believe. They do not just pantomime it. They do not repeat things pro forma. They literally believe whatever they are told to believe, with all of their heart and all of their soul.
That is ever so much more terrifying than the cynical wink and a nod that I thought was going on. At least with That actual knowledge and intent, there was a level of evil involved that could be trained out of people. But a group of true believers who will believe any set of statements they’re told to believe, no matter how bizarre, evil, or contradictory? That is truly terrifying.
And that is what we see laid out before us right now.
Same. Also Cultural Revolution and how kids could rule society.
Humans are trash who don’t deserve the gift of free will.
And instead of one of the centerpieces of Western Enlightenment liberalism *literally* becoming a dictatorship, we get wall-to-wall warboner coverage about Ukraine.
TMITE.
This data is consistent with a view I can’t seem to sell here: the government bullshit in Canada is actually mainstream, and the HonkHonk brigades, no matter how excited we might be about grassroots individualism, do not remotely represent a majority. Everyone here understands that libertarianism is a screwball’s errand, but the tone continues to be that Gord&Co are going to accomplish something that Mr/MrsOCanada don’t want…..I just don’t see any reason to believe it.
Geo. Washington was hanged as a traitor and Rosa Parks continued to take a seat at the back of the bus.
I don’t disagree totally, but there was polling not too long ago showing if not a majority but at least a strong minority of Canadians supporting the truckers. Now, standard caveats about polling apply, who knows how the question was framed, sample bias, etc. etc. However, I think the whole “working class revolt” narrative carries much more weight than libertarianism, not least because in many ways they just want a different kind of statism.
However, I believe you’re right that there is probably a strong majority that don’t care enough about any particular issue, trucker convoys included, to get their fat asses off the couch to do anything about it. Complacency is the most popular political platform of all.
Belated Glibfit update. Celebrated the holiday by riding my bike to a local bar and did some axe throwing. It was like a biathlon. The only people wearing masks were the Asian family who was sitting outside, but my wife noticed that the wife of family took off her mask as soon as she came inside. Methinks the husband was a control freak.
At the hardware store in my mom’s town yesterday about half the people were maskless, which was far more than I expected given that the town has become Berkeley East over the years.
I’d be willing to grant you credit for a triathlon. Sitting and drinking is an important part of what you did.
Pretty much like an Ironman. I’m going to go out the bumper sticker on my car now.
Quite a few older Asian people are into masking. People escaped communism and are worried about the Big V. The missus was in Orange County a few months ago, she said all the older folks were masked and vaccinated, the younger ones were more more resistant.
Asians were into masking long before this. Now it’s like forget about it, 100% masking among that crowd here, and of all ages.
Great article, Hoof!
I have a few friends who are retired or active ATPs at the majors. One’s son just hit the jackpot–graduated from a major university’s aviation program (kid had probably a couple thousand hours before he ever went to school because both his parents are captains at a major airline and he grew up flying), immediately got hired to fly the EMB145 for a regional (which I understand is quite rare), flew with them for about 10 months, and now has an interview upcoming with a major. He’s going to be swimming in it if his health holds up.
But, as you say, there are plenty who don’t get the ring on the first (or fifteenth) try, too.
It’s definitely doable for the right people in the right place. Knowing if that’s you is hard. I finished my license in 1993 when I was 19. Of all the instructors and friends and acquaintances at the time that were on the pilot path, exactly one made it to captain, about 2 years ago and he’s older than me. He spent several years after 911 commuting to Korea to make it work. That is some dedication.
Of the retired captains I know, one says the coolest thing he ever got to do was to drive a freight train. Another is in awe of cruise ship captains. It’s funny.
I think I’ve said this before, but when I worked for a railroad supply company, the bigwigs at BNSF and UP kept urging me to get on as a train driver. There is a community college here partnered with BNSF to teach train driving. It was damn near guaranteed I’d get a job (I’m a gurl, yanno) and the pay was $90k to start (albeit horrible shifts).
I didn’t do it. I was too wedged into my comfort zone. I deeply regret that to this day.
In another life I could see me driving a subway train. Probably not as good pay as a real train but the pay IS good plus you’re unfireable if you manage not to kill a train full of 1,000 people anywhere along the way.
Well, that was mentioned to me as a job hazard. I was told, “If you DO do this, you WILL kill people.”
This was in 1997.
Engineer. This isn’t Europe.
They call them “train drivers” in Europe? Lame.
I’m actually weighing this one in my mind right now…everyone is hiring – NS, BNSF, UP, etc – would be great if I was ready to move (just a little too far from where I currently live for the “90 minute” drive – not counting gas – but may look into it in a couple years.
Guessing a lot of folks were forced to retire because of the coof shot mandates? Not sure….everyone is going for the conductors – which automatically increase to engineer within a few years. Also…for my purposes – not sure how much overtime I could suck up in the first year vs the base salary.
After a week or two, it would be pretty boring and probably just another job with lousy hours, lousy food, and lousy managers. I’m a train nut and have worked on tourist trains and after a while you’ve seen all the scenery over and over again and the thrill is gone. You might like being an engineer until you see that gas tanker or school bus full of kids trying to beat you at the next crossing and you know it will take 1/2 mile for the brakes to stop your train.
Depends on location. VA would be limited – pretty flat, but I think WY/MT/etc would be great. All the scenery I like, and no real “traffic” to deal with – and I could do it standing or seated – easier than truck driving.
I had several friends that were chopper pilots in VN, another fixed wing, courtesy of Sam. I didn’t know, at the time, that it was fairly easy to get into the school, if one had the required physical assets and psychological temperament. After talking to them I was happy that I didn’t know about it. I’d probably have washed out anyway.
One of my army buddies went from truck driver to Blackhawk driver to fixed wing regional. Going flightnin the army is fairly hard now. No way could I have done it.
Back in the old days we called the CDL a chauffeur’s license. It was a written test and then drive around with a car, like a regular driver’s test. I had mine at 18 and if I recall driving a school bus required another add on. I didn’t have that, maybe had to be a little older, I don’t remember. We got the chauffeur’s license because
it was the cool thing to do, never drove a truck commercially.
The CDL didn’t exist until the feds took over licensing in 1992.
My sister was one of the first female commecial pilots out there. Her last gig was UA175 from Boston to LA but she developed an inner ear infection that took her off of flying status in the spring of 2001.
Her daughter married a pilot and the panicdemic hit the industry and him in particular very hard. He was trying to move between jobs when the industry collapsed. He managed to find work flying cargo and charter. Last I heard he was finally able to get on with Delta. Even with a few thousand hours he had to start at the bottom of the roster.
Airplanessssssss
Interesting look inside. Thanks!
I used to mod a law school forum to give people essentially the same advice. There are 9 lawyers out there making $65k and trying to pay off 6 figures in loans for every lawyer making over $150k directly out of law school. Of those lawyers making the big bucks, a vast majority are working well beyond bankers hours to earn their keep. “The money” is a shit reason to go into law. So is “making a difference”, but that’s a story for a different time.
I just got this weird flashback to college where for some reason I can’t possibly recall, I found myself one time in the law library researching something, and it was decked out like some old gentleman’s club – which was pretty odd considering it was inside a typical modern prison-looking college campus building.
My
Sister
Sister-In-law
Aunt
Uncle
all have law degrees. My aunt is the only one who ever even practiced law (counsel for American Family Insurance, hated her job every day)
The older ones didn’t bankrupt themselves, at least.
My 55 year old sister is still paying those loans, I suspect.
Just got a raise: 23%. The inflation is real.
Congrats. I’m expecting the usual 2%.
What sucks is my only promotional route is into management and I have no desire for that pile of bullshit. OTOH, if they keep trying to push me in that direction, I always have the leverage of demanding a salary that’s in line with my peers unlike now.
Just got a raise: 23%
Drinks are on you next time you’re in Florida.
Actually, I’m in Tampa March 17-19. It would be great to have drinks.
That’s awesome. Congrats.
Fastest way to left seat
1) Play MSFS a lot.
2) Get hired as a ramper.
3) see Hoof’s avatar for this step
4) enjoy a brief career as a Q400 test pilot, pushing the frame beyond previously established test flights
^ this guy gets it
Hats off to Rich, wherever he is. Makes you wonder if all the money and effort is really necessary when it’s so easy a ramp rat can do it.
HA!
“it makes sense to think very carefully about your personal risk tolerance before signing that loan doc and jumping into the cockpit”
You still get to fuck the stewardesses though right?
I think the term nowadays is “career limiting maneuver’”. Maybe some redheads for hand-propping?
Ask and you shall receive.
https://archive.md/Po5pU
#14…the most interesting part is, what is happening in the mirror?
That’s hilarious.
thanks Q!
The man can deliver the scratch for that redhead itch, can’t he?
I have to assume so. I read this book when I was in jr high. I don’t think I understood any of it. Maybe it’s time to break it out again.
I was waiting for someone to post that.
My brother got his pilot’s license many years ago. My parents were dead set against it because my uncle was killed in a crash while learning to fly a seaplane. Another plane ran into him on landing.
Him having his license had it’s advantages though. The copilot didn’t show up for a flight between the Big Island and Molokai on a family vacation, so my brother took his place. He even got to take control for a little while.
Now my daughter is making noises about getting her license.
We at war yet?
Who is we, mikata?
Fox News. Apart from Tucker, they are off their meds again.
I came to libertarianism from the right, so I often am unsure if I can trust my own judgement when it comes to these things…I’ve seen a local never-Trumper try and prove his bonafides by equating Rachel Maddow to Tucker Carlson, and I just don’t’ see it at all. Not even close.
I mean, I don’t lose any sleep over it, but still…I wonder sometimes who is losing their minds and who isn’t.
I came to the right from the left, to libertarian from the right, to anarchism from libertarian and by now I’m more HL Mencken than anything.
I’m from the left and Tucker irks me some times, but Maddow is 100x more insane.
they’re both scum, but
pistols at 50 feet? my money’s on Maddow
I’ve at least seen Tucker handle a gun. Can’t say the same for Maddow.
*grrrr*
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y9HF1nZUn_w
That link lacks sugar
*psst*
☝?
Curious what makes either of them “scum”.
And I assume you’re being facetious, but just in case not; the thought of Maddow winning anything to do with guns is comical.
They’re the kind of people who comment on the news with little more than identity politics signals and knowing, concerned head nods. They don’t work from first principles because they need to change their angles and rationales on a daily basis whenever their team becomes guilty of exactly the same trespass they convicted their enemies of yesterday.
They are scum because they have a glorious pulpit from which they might do a great deal to educate people and raise the level of national discourse. Instead they do nothing but raise the temperature: they tell half-truths and imply things and ratchet and agitate and build piles on horseshit because advertisers know that simple people live off of drama and can’t resist being drawn to the flame of tribal nonsense. A pox on both their houses.
Outrage pornographers. Don’t disagree.
Are they beating the drums? I don’t watch anyone there but Tucker.
Yes. They’re attacking Biden for not being hawkish enough earlier. Stupid party my ass. They are scumbags.
Wait…the guy who’s been promising a war for weeks, and who’s been getting cheered on by his party, hasn’t been hawkish enough?
If I gave a shit, I’d ask you to cite that claim.
Shut down Nordstream and put NATO on his doorstep. Fox News brilliant strategy.
Umm…that’s Biden’s strategy.
Got an email from Amazon that the dog food subscription is cancelled. Manufacturer is shrinking the package down a pound. Package price is still going up by a buck.
It’s not inflation is the packages experience deflation.
I can’t believe they canceled. I subscribed to an energy drink once because it was cheaper online than I could buy it locally. I didn’t watch closely and the price went up about 25% each successive order until I caught it on the 3rd order (too late to cancel) and had to cancel it myself.
I think the SKUs changed so the ASIN is different, triggering the automated cancel.
Oh sure, it was the package size changing that triggered it.
Prepped another article – still not sure if I got the promo pic thing set right. Either way the “featured image” has a caption on it that can be used for the front page text…
Put the text you want in the main page blurb in the excerpt box.
I’m sitting here watching the bluray of R40 – Rush’s last concert tour, knowing that I will never get to see my favorite band live ever again, marveling at their musicianship and skill they were able to muster at the end of their career, and wondering if we are witnessing the abrupt end of Western Civilization as Canada slinks roughly into dictatorship while our foolish leadership in the USA is fixated on a pointless conflict half a world away.
Are we really doomed to collapse into ignominy this way? Was our commitment to liberty really such a brief flicker on the universal stage?
In the dark ages, they lived among Roman ruins. Music will be the remnant we leave our ancestors.
I can totally see myself sifting through the ruins of Fifth Avenue and finding a Rush album and treasuring it. The question is will I be in my sixties or eighties…
I see liberty being reborn with blood as the number of governments occupying North America inevitably multiply. How long that will take, I won’t hazard a guess. But I won’t be surprised if it begins in my lifetime.
https://archive.md/SrL2H/3a5b3fa33089a28788256cc51db60cbf83b831c0.webp
NSFW.
https://archive.md/NYoVz/1651d1c37e69851355a4251c6bd992e1a0eb67fe.webp
NSFW.
https://archive.md/9zy5M/0d632ca1fb7cf5a461b747304131d03e195c62b5.webp
NSFW.
https://archive.md/D7tuf/92fc90e3080fe5e92c2e0704262ef135940c14db.jpg
NSFW.
A great photo ruined by a couple of cheap tattoos.
Russian “peacekeepers” have been ordered in to Eastern Ukraine.
It begins.
?
dammit
A border scuffle begins. Let’s see if our lunatics on the other side of the globe can take us to the brink of nuclear war. “But Putin started it!” won’t be much consolation regardless.
Did the little green men ever leave Ukraine after the last go round? Russia has had de facto control of that region for many years now. It’s just out in the open now.
You mean before or after the US installed their puppet?
After the previous winter Olympics.
Actually, now that I think about it, it was two winter Olympics ago.
“I’ll see you one Crimea and raise you a couple Eastern oblasts.”
Putin is war criminal, too. Doesn’t mean I’m on team “let’s make it worse.”
The olympics end, the invasions begin, Taiwan?
Putin already had de facto control over that region, now it will be official. There is no reason this involves the US or NATO in any conflict unless Biden and other heads of state need it to distract from the shitty job they are doing in their domestic affairs.
“unless Biden and other heads of state need it to distract from the shitty job they are doing in their domestic affairs”
DING DING DING DING DING!
While a war can definitely be a great distraction from a shitshow I think that the people running the Biden admin may be cunning enough to know that it won’t help them in this case. I’d wager that the American public’s appetite for a military conflict with Russia is at an absolute low right now and even a drummed up pretext wouldn’t likely change that much. Far, far more likely is continued tough gai talk and some weak sauce sanctions to make it seem as if Biden is competent and in charge of the situation. Putin doesn’t really need to take all of Ukraine (at least at this point). He can get his land route to the Crimea and likely be very satisfied with that and see his domestic reputation bolstered.
I’m thinking it’s more psyops.
Convince the public that war is inevitable, but never going to war.
Biden will be there cool head that averted WW3. The hero we all need, and that democracy needs.
Bob Beckel has died
That’s unfortunate. He was one of the few liberal TV pundits willing to occasionally call out his side.
is there really a shortage?
I might need to dig out my macro/micro, but I guess I don’t believe in shortages: there are only people who are irritated that they are not on the powerful side of a market of interest. If you have enough money, there is never a shortage of anything; gold has been rare and precious for 10,000 years, but I’ll deliver all you want for $5000/oz FOB Memphis by Friday CoB.
When markets shine favor upon someone, there never complain. Don’t get me wrong, I feel the stresses, but shortage is like monopoly: once you deal with system frictions, it all settles out if you let markets work their magic.
So, just curious from – what is the redline to the Glibertariat where political violence is justified? How have we not crossed that point, particularly in Canada?
Warrantless seizing of bank accounts aught to be.
Canada is headed down a crazy road.
Seconded.
This is a solid bright line. Police goons beating on peaceful protesters is another.
As always, the practical stumbling blocks trump theory. It is hard as hell to whack a public figure, and tantamount to impossible to get away with it.
My animals and my kin, take my life and my job, but my people are worth killing and dying for, even you Bro,
*self-censors to avoid getting on even more lists*
Seriously though, I’m not going to be the first person or even the second or third to use violence. Waaaaaaay too much to lose, waaaaaaaaay too little to (practically) gain. Revolution is a game for the young and unattached.
Or the old and disenfranchised.
That’s a good question. The ability to unperson someone under the Emergency ACT is frightening. I wonder if some number of Canadians will cast aside their politeness under the strain.
We have an ice event coming in right now and I’m sure to lose power, but it also means my car wash will freeze, no boiler, equals broken water lines. So as soon as my power is up I must return to the shop and reprogram the entire 20 year old software, i’m the only one who knows how, i need a raise.
RE: Eastern Ukraine and Taiwan.
As many have pointed out here, Eastern Ukraine has, like Crimea, been de facto Russia since the USSR fell. Those regions were high majority ethnic Russian with no love for Ukraine. There are many other post-Soviet states in a similar situation. If Brandon starts a war over that it would be beyond absurd.
Taiwan is altogether different IMO. They are really and truly on their own and would fight to the death before being taken over by the PRC. I don’t know if they have nukes, but I suspect they do and if Beijing launched a full on assault, I doubt they’d have qualms over using them. I don’t think Xi is that stupid.
“I don’t think Xi is that stupid.”
Think again Q, Xi is a rock star who believes his own hype, surrounded by Yes men.
Oh, bother!
I’m very concerned Yusef is right. Xi has put himself on a pedestal with Mao and Deng. He is hugely interfering with the Chinese economy and appears to believe his own press releases. There is no telling what may happen.
I think that Xi is getting cocky in the same way as AH, use it or lose it, the NSDAP was running hard up against inflation much as the the CCP now, so the time may be ripe for a bold move.
Maybe. But Taiwan is a wealthy island country with 25 million people, sophisticated weapons, powerful allies, and a strong desire for freedom.
They are nothing whatsoever like the regions of the Ukraine Putin just grabbed.
China, as always, is a vastly overrated paper tiger. They have a corrupt and stupid ruling class and a top heavy economy driven by slave labor and a population where 25% of the people live under 15 bucks a day. This entire economy is dependent upon selling shit to the west because their value of human life is so low. Even a mild refusal by the west not to do business with them would crush them.
If you ask me, they are not conquering any real countries ever. They fucking blow.
I agree, AH and his gang lost everything in the end, so will Xi, China will survive as it has for 3k years or so, Xi ro Mao or whomever runs the joint,
Plus Kamala has just been tapped to deal with the Ukrainian situation. She has already given a masked speech where she said a number of words that meandered around and built upon themselves to become incomprehensible gibberish. This delivered in the tone and speech patterns of a college sophomore aspiring intellectual four beers deep attempting to settle a minor beef between frat bros. If Putin doesn’t watch himself he will be subjected to more of this until he relents.
I’d agree that China is largely a paper tiger with some serious structural issues very much in line for a sharp economic correction at some time in the medium future. It’s real danger to us is that our elites try and copy their model. We have been rushing headlong into that for a while, and the last two years has kicked it into fifth gear.
I saw that pathetic “Speech” not even sound and thunder, any Glib could have done a better job that that person.
I agree China’s weaknesses are real. That doesn’t mean Xi will recognize that before invading Taiwan.
So much this, the results will be ugly, no matter the outcome, we just need to stay the fuck out of it, we has ne business there, unratified treaties be damned!
The Taiwanese along with Japan and South Korea can handle it without us. They’d sink the Chinese navy and cut off China’s trade in short order. Taiwan the island isn’t in quite the same situation as Ukraine the not island.
Whelp, since it’s 3 AM after all.
God, I miss the 1990’s
Hey, Tres. I’m up too.
Sucks cuz I gotta go in tomorrow. It was a nice three day weekend tho.
Me too…didn’t know how good we had it at the time.
seems a much more innocent time.
Kyle Rittenhouse needs a better advisor because, damn, dude—you were acquitted but the deck is kinda stacked against you. Rule of law doesn’t mean what it used to.
Fade away and enjoy a quiet life.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10537361/Kyle-Rittenhouse-plans-sue-Whoopi-Goldberg-celebrities-politicians-athletes.html
As I’ve said a few times, the kid just ain’t that bright. He has that simple personality that attracts huxters and grifters like bees to honey.
Also, who the fuck is dressing him for these media appearances?
Huh. I must have screwed up. Both of my comments I made in the last 5 minutes say they are awaiting moderation.
Sorry for whatever I did wrong, TPTB.
Hey gorgeous….how YOU doin’ ?
Morning, Glibs.
Morning UCS,
Nice weather yesterday, next 10 days are ugly…..
Good morning, U, homey, HE, ‘bodru, and Stinky!
I have a dentist appointment this morning. The day has to get better after that, right? Worst case, at least I’ll greet the fall of Western civilization with clean teeth.
Got nothing to say about the dentist.
I did wake up with a clogged ear this morning. 🙁
I’ve had that happen – one morning years ago I couldn’t hear my alarm clock go off because I was sleeping on my side with the clogged ear up.
Mornin’ GT. I usually wait until I have an excruciating toothache before going to the dentist so I can lay in a supply of Percocet. Makes the fall of Western Civilization more tolerable.
“Ex-Cop Dad Of 14-Year-Old TikTok Star Shoots, Kills Stalker Armed With Shotgun, Goes Free Under Florida’s Stand Your Ground Law”
https://www.dailywire.com/news/ex-cop-dad-of-14-year-old-tiktok-star-shoots-kills-stalker-armed-with-shotgun-goes-free-under-floridas-stand-your-ground-law?%3Futm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dwtwitter
Parents whoring out their daughter (sort of)? Check. Sad obsessed male fan? Check.
I hate everyone involved.
Mammas don’t let your babies grow up to be social-media whores.
I had enough problems getting my own kids through those days, way before cell phones even. Can’t imagine what it must be like to be a parent these days.
Yup. Key facts:
(1) They were making decent coin.
(2) They aren’t stopping, even though somebody’s dead.
Morning UCS, Robo, GT and Stinky and any other lost and wondering,
I’ve been awake for a couple hours but looking out in the dark at the snow makes me wonder why. More today, I’ll wait ’til tomorrow to clean it up, wait ’til it’s colder, yeah, that’s a really good idea.
Reading the news and watching TV is depressing enough these days. The old adage, “Cheer up, things could be worse” is true even if one doesn’t cheer up.
I almost never watch TV news any more, and for better or worse, most of the non-local news I read is from links I follow from here.
“things could be worse”
My favorite conspiracy theory is that everything will be okay.
Apparently Bob was in on the conspiracy.
As much as I complain and bitch about the weather (and everything else) I’m grateful that I can get out and clean up the snow. I look around at my contemporaries and the few remaining classmates and realize how lucky I am. Having Glibs 24 hours a day ain’t bad either.
Mornin’, all. I need something to deal with all this stress. Once upon a time I had the perfect remedy (TW:Russians).
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OjQzwyVFWc8
Mornin’ Free Folk! This article was interesting to me because after a cross-country trip in an airline at age 14 it became my dream to become an airline pilot. Alas, our family was not that well-off and the only way Young Festus would ever sit in any pilot’s seat was to join the military. That was a hard nope. “Cut my hair? Follow orders? Fuck that shit!” Ah, to be 17 again…
No way, man, 17 was scary, thinking about having to go to a real job and being responsible?
Weed, hallucinagens and copious booze made everything possible and unattainable at the same time. GenX was the origin of the “Parent’s basement” phenomena. There was no work to be had. Stagflation.
Best part of being 17 in 1970 was the fashion phenomenon of micro-miniskirts. I do miss that.
I just saw a headline that micro miniskirts are back.
So we’ve got that going for us.
We’ll be back to my post-college peak when plaid miniskirts, thigh highs and choker necklaces come back in fashion
I’m convinced some heterosexual hero infiltrated the fashion industry that year and engineered the popularity of that look.
Having driven many different vehicles and vessels since that time it is quite apparent that I never had the spatial reasoning to ever fly anything. Feet firmly on the ground. You wanted me to track a fly ball? Not a problem.
Mornin’, Festy.
Ah, to be 17 again
I identify as a 17 year old trapped in a 68 year old body.
Mornin’ to you! Me too except for that pesky balance issue. That other thing was pretty much a “one of” thus far.