Hacker: Humphrey, we have to do something.
Sir Humphrey: With respect Minister, we have to do nothing.
I have to start by saying I am not an expert in „rationality” and „cognitive bias” and all that jazz. Which probably makes me more qualified to speak on it, as the experts have too much bias to think clearly about it. I do not want to talk on the topic in general, but on one specific thing that annoys me. Something I wish more people would realize.
As the title says, nothing is better than something wrong. I think this is one of the most damaging biases people have. The bias towards „something, anything”. It negatively affects science, politics and most other aspects of life. Something must be done. This is something. Therefore, we must do this.
Whenever someone comes up with some plan or other, if you point out that it will not work, the immediate response is „do you have a better plan?” Well, no. Just not that. I rather do nothing that something that does not work, or often makes things worse.
This is how incompetent politicians get elected. The come up with „solutions” to problems people perceive. It matters not the solutions are bunk, and will at most only enrich the political class. If someone points out all the way the solution does not work, “well at least they are trying to do something.” I wish they wouldn’t.
I understand that when there is a serious problem, people desperately want a solution. But it should be a real solution and people should try to control the urge to do something, anything. To use an analogy, imperfect like all analogies, if you have a large grease fire, throwing a bucket of water is doing something. But it can turn out quite worse than doing nothing. Yes, FIRE. But not all fires can be extinguished in the same fashion.
This also greatly affects science. Someone comes up with a theory. Experiments do not really confirm it. Someone else points that out and is asked “well you have a better theory?” No, just not that.
First of all, it is important to know what does not work. You will not waste time and resources in that area of research. Second, it is important to know where there are gaps in knowledge. If you think you know, then you may not look to closely at a certain topic. If you know you don’t know, then you can investigate.
A major issue in science is that negative findings do not get attention or even published. If you find that chocolate has no relation to cancer, it neither causes nor prevents, well this is not as exciting news as “chocolate prevents cancer.” But it is important to know.
A complementary issue in science is the problem of the “elegant” theory. If a theory is wrong, but scientist find it elegant it will be doubly hard to take it down. I have seen this in various debates on string theory recently. Various elements which have no experimental evidence whatsoever but oh so elegant in the minds of physicists.
Sometimes you can say well this is the best theory we have. But if you do not see results, spend a little time and money exploring other directions. A very good example is the amyloid plaque theory in Alzheimer’s. The improvement in disease management has been very little compared to the time and money invested. Most drugs that remove the plaques do not do much. Maybe, just maybe, look at something else, at least with part of the research grants.
More general, in science or politics, people don’t like saying we don’t know. It is okay not to know, we can hardly think we know everything. Just say I don’t know, we don’t have a solution yet.
So glibbies, what biases do you think are damaging and not sufficiently accounted by people?
You should see the elegant do-somethinging going on in Canada. It’s epic.
Rufus!
How are the moppets, Muppet?
We’re good.
I have. My condolences to you.
Some of your quotation marks have fallen to the bottom of the line.
He should have used guillemets.
How would sea birds have helped?
/deliberately obtuse
You’ve erned the narrow gaze Swissy is going to give you.
Can I quote you on that?
Fuck that French shit.
«Oh là là!»
*high fives rhywun*
So the Black Rock Rangers of Burning Man (and spread out to regional burn events) have the ethos of “first, do nothing”. Simply because when you come upon a conflict that may require mediation, you don’t know what is going on and you can’t mediate the unknown. We point out the contrast of this to what law enforcement typically does, which is to establish control (even when they don’t know that is un-necessary).
You’re also poking at the problem of leadership not being able to deal with a situation that exceeds their knowledge. It is almost impossible for a leader to say “I don’t know what to do” because the people under that leader will all scream “why did we make you leader then”, even though none of them knows what to do.
it’s Dunning Kruger all the way down
Shaky shamans don’t hold the confidence of the tribe for long.
So, anyone a fan of leather jackets?
I am planning on going full nick gillespie, anyone have a recommend?
Whatever you do, don’t steal the cow you plan to skin. The ranchers take a dim view of such things.
Overland.com
I know, pricey, but nothing gets a sad trombone more than a cheap leather jacket.
Suthen has it right.
(My feet are currently snuggled up in sheepskin slippers from Overland)
It isn’t even that bad as far as leather jackets go, thanks for the reccommend.
look into uswings.com
post hoc ergo propter hoc
Like I was writing on the dead thread, jumping to conclusions is most folk’s favorite past-time. Post hoc is a logic failure, but it comes from a sort of bias: proximity is destiny.
What is it called when folks are certain that something is knowable or manageable? The urge to fix or manage must come from some sort of bias that things are manageable. For most of us, we don’t think that liberty comes without friction; we just know it delivers the best of outcomes. Markets are like that: you might not get exactly what you want on the day at the price, but free markets deliver the most choice at the best prices. I guess I’m just recouching the essay.
Ask someone – is the world/universe chaotic or does it just happen, either by incredible coincidence or divine design, to run according to regular rules in predictable patterns. Humans are going to reject chaos almost all the time. The ones that don’t will get labeled as mentally defective.
On a related note, there’s the urge to find someone to blame whenever something bad happens, presumably because if things had been “managed” properly then the bad thing would not have happened.
‘So glibbies, what biases do you think are damaging and not sufficiently accounted by people?’
The bias to defer to people who appear confident, whether they be ‘experts’ or otherwise.
One of my favorite quotes: “Never defer to people who have nothing to lose by being wrong. ” – I want to say Sowell but I cant be certain
The world is full of experts who cant figure out which shoe to put on which foot.
Not quite the Sowell quote, but close enough.
Chuck and Nikki sitting in a tree
beating former President Trump in the Republican nominating contest is a top priority…
DeSantis supporters (argue he) is better positioned to siphon supporters away from Trump than Haley is. Haley is beating DeSantis, however, in some of the states that are first to select a Republican nominee.
As much as I despise Trump, he’s the furthest thing from a neocon. I don’t think I could vote for Nikki. Based on likely LP offerings, I’ll probably write in DEG or Neph.
Animal/Steve Smith 2024!
Or: Almanian 2024
SMOD is always applicable.
I guess it’s time to update the profile pic
Semi-Bright Border Collie 2024!
I may buy one next year: https://www.amazon.com/Horizontal-Outdoor-Weatherproof-Corrugated-Included/dp/B0CFQ6MRXY
STEVE SMITH 2024:
SOMEHOW LESS PAINFUL THAN THE ALTERNATIVES
C’mon vote for me.
I promise years of gridlock and veto override battles.
I promise that every day I will eliminate a law or government organization that restricts liberty. I will do so by 10:00 AM, then spend the rest of the day eating BBQ and having whiskey.
My press conferences will be conducted in morse code, with squawking rubber chickens. Learn to code, press pool!
-.-. — — .-.. / -.– — ..- / …. .- …- . / — -.– / …- — – . / … – — .–.
It’s terrible when dash-dash becomes a long dash because of auto-correct. Someone should do something!
ugh: I thought that was a non-compressible flow regime
damn you, Navier and Stokes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rufnWLVQcKg
I was making a promise I could keep.
If I were making utopian promises, I’d burn a swathe through the entrenchments, sending many to prison and the unemployment line.
Vote for “None of the Above”
or
don’t vote at all, you have better things to do.
We seriously need None of the Above and to have it disqualify the failed candidates from appearing on the ballot again.
I’ll be deer hunting, that’s better
Taibbi (again from behind the paywall)
[Emphasis mine]
The saddest reality is, those people will have a bigger, more-than-adequately-gullible audience then Taibbi, or us. Fuck democracy.
Hey, JI, here is something you might find interesting. It is from a few years ago, but seems more relevant now:
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2019/05/algorithmic-governance-and-political-legitimacy/
more voting fun by making congressional districts compact and follow county lines
I have been saying this for a long time.
not racist enough
Great read, but what else would you expect from Mr. Crawford. Rao also mentioned Seeing Like a State in one of his pieces at Ribbonfarm.
The desire to ban things which certain people find dangerous, in the name of public safety. This is horribly damaging and drives both parties here in the states.
Sec. 24-14. – Impeding sidewalk. (a) It shall be unlawful for a person to stand or sit on a city sidewalk so as to impede, physically or by intimidation, free and uninterrupted pedestrian passage. (b) It shall be unlawful for any person to sit or lie down on a sidewalk or on a blanket, stool, or any other object placed upon a sidewalk so as to impede pedestrian passage between the hours of 7:00 a.m. and 2:00 a.m. in a designated area.
it don’t say shit about setting up a tent and freebasing the week away, though
We got mask mandates because politicians had to appear to be “doing something”. Good read.
I’ll go with universalizing experiences. Way too many people believe their experience is the same experience everyone else has. It’s a dangerous assumption. It also leads to hubris because there is no reason to ask a question if you know the answer.
is the same experience everyone else has
Or the experience everyone else SHOULD have. Any deviation is a threat to my own experience.
Good point
Hey from Port Arthur, TX where Im testing another filthy refinery.
What. Is. Up.
4 Non Blondes – What’s Up?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NXnxTNIWkc&ab_channel=4NonBlondesVEVO
https://www.avclub.com/mickey-dean-ween-melchiondo-on-why-he-hates-4-non-blo-1798238547
lol Ween has the audacity to bitch about shitty music?! Perfect.
Hey, that’s an ad hominem. He’s not wrong…
+1 newsletter, for that matter.
I’ve been there, interesting town. I forget where we got BBQ, but it was good.
I just paid my bills.
I feel poor again.
Whatever the numbers say, whenever money leaves my account, I feel poor.
Are you regularly putting money in a deferred comp plan and savings?
of course I am
I fished in Canada with an old friend. We used “According to theory” the fish should be here, they were hitting on this, ad infinitum.
We had a theory for every event. Occasionally we were accidentally right. That didn’t disprove all the times we were wrong.
The fish just didn’t know the theory.
“Ancient Angler Theorists say…” 😉
“I’m not saying it’s coelacanths…”
The fish may have been in school but they weren’t properly educated.
The obvious one is the immediate assumption that everyone who disagrees with you is stupid, ignorant, and/or evil.
Not that ones ideological opponents can’t be those things, but one should try to assume otherwise until they demonstrate their evil stupid ignorance.
Good one.
First-serker
Do do doo doo
Firstserker
Do doo doo doo
Meh.
😒🌞
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PuFAYAEgKMA
🎶🎶
Good morning all! May your day be fine and dand.
Good morning, Beau & Sean!
Morning, GT.
Morning Glibs unnamed.
Good morning, U! How are you feeling today?
Annoyed.
I’m in the “Just finish going away already!” stage of the disease. While objectively the symptoms are continuing to diminish, the fact that they’re not gone is bothersome. Plus I’m sure my voice still croaks like a bullfrog.
Worse, I’m thinking I might not be able to finish the diarama project in time, since I lost a good chunk of the time I was planning to use to work on it to this stupid bug
Oh, no! I hope you can find the time and energy to get it done! 🙁
Yah, illness is inconvenient. There’s never a good time for it, is there.
never a good time
Jury duty?
Touché.
suh fam
Whats goody
Good morning, homey! What state are you in today?
Time to get up and at ’em. Mornin’, coffee’s been brewed, fire in the furnace. Big day for the Fourscores, monthly trip to the big city, Walmart et al. We need to stock up on the staples but not stock up on staples. It’s usually when we can consolidate trips but nothing on the near horizon so we’ll shop, have lunch at one of the “Not for First Date” places and drop some Benjis around town.
Oh well, it’s only paper.
Good morning, 4(20)! Have a grand day out!
Here is the problem we face distilled:
Feral hogs. They are an exotic species that greatly disrupts the natural balance. They cause enormous damage to crops. They carry diseases that infect native species and livestock. They can be dangerous to humans.
That is a problem that is very obvious.
The solution is equally obvious and simple. Eradicate them. Open season year-round day or night. No license required. Shoot them, trap them and make lots of sausage.
Oh no. We cant do that. It is too simple and obvious. It does not allow opportunities for the right people to gain money and power. A license is required. Dress, times of day, manner of taking, calibers of guns, types of traps, times of year and times of day – all regulated by law. Louisiana recently changed regulations to make things easier but I am not sure of the details.
Just saw a story on the teevee where wild hog is not allowed to be used to feed the homeless cuz they (I dont know who they are) dont want us eating meat. They dont want….uh….who gives a fuck what they want? Big problem, obvious solution, kill two birds with one stone. Reduced feral hog population, delicious bacon an sausage for the homeless. Nope, cant do that.
That is govt types in a nutshell. Every problem we have is treated the same way. Want to put a stop to the horrible clusterfuck in the Middle East? Iran is the source of the problem. Expel their diplomats , UN reps etc. Cut off their money and kill the top leadership. No fucking around. Bomb all of their nuclear facilities. Kill them and walk away. They will get the message and put their house in order.
Ukraine? Zelenski and his top people have to go. Either we do it or get out of the way and let Putin do it. Zelenski has to go. He stirred this up and is keeping it going. Our money is fueling the horrors over there. I cant speak for anyone else but I am personally revolted by the idea of MY money being used to fund protracted murder overseas.
Crime here? Put the criminals in prison. Period. Brownshirts rioting? Beat the fuck out of them and imprison them. Find out who is behind this shit (it is the radical left democrats of course) and imprison them as well.
Foreign invasion? Close the goddamned border. Round up and deport the ones here already.
If you have a giant splinter pull the fucking thing out, disinfect and bandage. Change the bandage 2x per day. This aint fuckin’ rocket science.
News letter? Subscribes, sends Suthen my credit card numbers
meh, server errors. I had nothing to say anyway. Not much to disagree wholeheartedly there
Saw a few articles here “Feral hogs are a problem, but don’t shoot them!” Uh…what? Like you said, most likely gotta get the process in place to allow grift to flow for the issue, rather than letting the community do what they know how to do.
Today in cringe music
Blue System – My Bed Is Too Big (Official Video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDzZj3-7-r4
Wow.
That was fantastic!
Yikes. Cringe music? The eighties hair is cringey enough all by itself. Someone get that pair a razor