Sunk Cost Double Play

by | Mar 30, 2024 | Beer, Family, Fitness, Food & Drink, Yoots | 99 comments

It occurred to me we don’t rag on The Federalist nearly as often as we should.  Lets fix that.

This is my review of Pipeworks Napkin Math Stout with Peaches:

I am going to begin this by saying that I am fully aware of the obvious negative return on investment club sports will eventually bring.  Nobody is more fully aware of this fact than I am, a person that is driving a 12 year old Chrysler product that just paid for a transmission rebuild.  Even though you have autism and will do so anyways, you do not need to smugly explain this to me as I am living the sunk cost fallacy lifestyle, bruh.  (TW:  The Federalist)

Realistically, the chances of a male high school soccer player making a college team is 8 percent. Making a Division I team? 0.9 percent. Making a professional soccer roster? Less than 7 ten-thousands of a percent, or 1,344:1 in simpler terms. Playing club sports increases those odds a bit — but at a high price.

There are some real downsides to long-term participation in club sports.

The investment of time and money is significant, often thousands of dollars per year, especially if the team travels. I loved spending time in the car with my son going to practices and games for many years, but there are opportunity costs. Paying club fees means fewer funds for other important things, and that time spent on the road means less time as a family.

The quality of coaching varies in most clubs, and coaches for high-level teams tend to produce more skills growth in their players. But too many coaches are not invested in players’ personal development, identity, and mental health. Younger athletes need a mentor and lots of encouragement, although there comes a time especially as later teens when they need someone to challenge them. Thankfully, both as a parent and as a soccer referee, I have seen some great exceptions to the rule — coaches who clearly care about growing their players as people — but they are rare exceptions.

Fundamentally, club sports are businesses similar to pyramid schemes.

Again, I accept failure is the most likely scenario.  I know this because this is UFC fighter, Michael Chandler, showing off part of his workout. My PR for deadlift is 425, so theoretically I know I can do this—one or two reps of course and I’ll be hating life for the next few hours.  Alternatively, while I can bench press 225, I am not going anywhere near an NFL combine.  I am not there, and neither is my wife, therefore my kids most likely will not be either.

Forgive me for using Big Mike’s “Let’s Move” graphic.

There are however benefits to participating in youth sports.  Ranging from the obvious health and psychological benefits associated with simple activity playing outside.   Other benefits include socialization (the good kind), cognitive/academic performance, college admissions, even increased productivity as an adult at work.

For my family, because of the expense each year we ask, “do you still want to play” before we sign up.  We also stipulate that if you are going to play, you have to play hard.  This year my youngest tried out for a club team that plays within a Cal Ripken league.  He was a bit of a standout with the neighborhood little league.  After watching the kids at the tryout I told him if he gets on the team he won’t be asked to lead off like he did at the little league and he’s going to be in the outfield unless he puts in the work.

For him to succeed in something even this trivial, puts his mind in a place valuable enough that I can accept driving a 12 year old Chrysler product with the clear coat visibly bubbling for a few more years.

 

For as cold and calculating the brewing process necessarily needs to be, something here doesn’t add up.  Peaches are a good thing.  I like peaches, my kids like peaches.  I have a dark corner in my kitchen I leave a bowl of peaches to ripen up during the summer when they’re in season.  Stout is a good thing, and you are well aware of my fondness for it.  Putting them both in the lineup is a bad idea.  While I can appreciate an attempt at something different, somebody in the production process needed to step in and put a stop to this nonsense. Pipeworks Napkin Math Stout with Peaches: 2.2/5

About The Author

mexican sharpshooter

mexican sharpshooter

WARNING: Glibertarians.com contains chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer and birth defects or other reproductive harm. https://youtu.be/qiAyX9q4GIQ?t=2m22s

99 Comments

  1. Common Tater

    “Putting them both in the lineup is a bad idea. While I can appreciate an attempt at something different, somebody in the production process needed to step in and put a stop to this nonsense.”

    This.

    • Fourscore

      Country kids often don’t have the opportunity for organized sports. Poor country kids even less. Many times the rural kids have home responsibilities that take time and energy. I often have said one of the most important things I learned at home was to work. Not necessarily skills but the self starting motivation. I did pick up some limited skills along the way though.

      I tried to instill that into my kids.

      • Homple

        I grew up on a “farm” in central Minnesota. Between chores and pasture-softball games with neighbor kids, we had plenty of outdoor activity. I looked upon my city cousins’ adult-managed sports teams and pitied them.

    • Yusef drives a Kia

      X1000 this

  2. Nephilium

    Yeah. Stout’s don’t seem a natural fit for peaches. Wheats, lagers, sours, and the like are a much better fit for peaches. One of my locals (Fat Head’s) occasionally has released a peach ale named Fuzzy Wuzzy that’s quite solid.

    • Gustave Lytton

      I spilled a six pack of Pyramid Apricot Ale in a closet years ago. I’ll pass on the fruit beers.

      • J. Frank Parnell

        That got me thinking, I haven’t seen Pyramid in a while, are they still around?

        Answer: no.

      • Gustave Lytton

        Drank a lot of their beer in the old days. So many good companies are gone. And crap beer remains. Hopped up swill in cans. 🤮

      • Nephilium

        IPA’s are no longer the lion’s share of the market, regardless what people think.

        /looks at the Czeck Dark Lager, Mild, Tequila aged wheat, and sour cherry wheat that I’ve had over the past 24 hours on a brewery passport.

      • Nephilium

        Just for the numbers, that was from three breweries. The breakdown on taps/IPA’s:

        1) Jolly’s Pizza (owned by Jolly Scholar brewing): 20 taps, 5 IPAs (one guest, one session, one Belgian, one hazy, one American)
        2) Hoppy Dudes: 19 taps, 2 IPAs (one Imperial, one American)
        3) Broadview Brewing: 12 taps, 2 IPAs (one standard, one hazy)

      • Evan from Evansville

        IPA has also hit the non-alcoholic market. Athletic is a maybe local one I’ve been hitting frequently. Hopopolis IPA by Sun King is def local and what I’m into now.

      • Nephilium

        Yeah, but the NA market is a small fraction of the entire market. Athletic is one of the big movers in the space, because they started doing just NA to begin with. The couple of times I’ve had their stuff (usually at a fest when their booth was closer than the nearest water station) it’s solid. I just have issues with the price point. Most places are selling NA beer at about the same price as regular beer, at that point, I’ll pass. I can drink plenty of less expensive NA beverages, or go with a beer.

        NA beer also has a problem that regular beer doesn’t. Regular beer is resistant to spoilage by it’s nature (alcohol, low residual sugar levels, and acid levels kill/prevent the growth of harmful bacteria, making it safe to drink), NA beer doesn’t have that so it either needs to be pasteurized or chemically preserved.

      • R C Dean

        How do you spill a whole six pack?

      • Gustave Lytton

        Dropped the 6 pack or something landed on it. Closet reeked of apricot for a long time.

      • R C Dean

        Ah. Broke a six pack, which spilled.

    • Ted S.

      Are stouts a natural fit for herbs?

      • R C Dean

        There’s probably something that would work but it’s not coming to mind.

      • Nephilium

        Coffee, chocolate, dark fruits, oysters (not to my taste, but a popular style), vanilla, oak, barrel aging, peppers, and the like are what usually pair well with stouts. If you start talking white/albino stouts, then things change a bit.

      • Gender Traitor

        I suspect I’m the only one who sees what Ted’S. did there. 😉

      • Nephilium

        Decided that he wanted to make a gruit?

      • Gender Traitor

        Stout’s don’t seem a natural fit for peaches.

        Are stouts a natural fit for herbs?

      • Ted S.

        THANK YOU.

      • Gender Traitor

        ::narrows gaze:: You owe me after WHAMming me yesterday afternoon! I came thisclose to Rickrolling you, but I decided not to stoop so low. 😒

    • juris imprudent

      I was going to be shocked if he had rated it higher. Just didn’t sound right.

      • mexican sharpshooter

        I’m crazy, not stupid.

    • Chafed

      I was thinking the same thing.

  3. Gustave Lytton

    chances of a male high school soccer player making a college team is 8 percent. Making a Division I team? 0.9 percent. Making a professional soccer roster? Less than 7 ten-thousands of a percent, or 1,344:1 in simpler terms.

    And do the odds go up or down if they identify as a female? Incentives, how the fuck do they work?

  4. The Late P Brooks

    you do not need to smugly explain this to me as I am living the sunk cost fallacy lifestyle, bruh.

    Value is subjective.

    *getting ready to spend ~400 bucks on a replacement rear window for a 500 dollar Honda

    • Mojeaux

      Yeah, we like our beater truck, and we put money into our 2006 Sonatas because they’re basic and also 6 cylinders.

      • Tres Cool

        I just blew a couple hundred bucks on 200K mile, 18 year old, POS Envoy™ just cause I like it.
        A couple of coil packs and some rear braks (rotors did NOT get done) and she still has a laundry list of little things that need fixed.

      • Tres Cool

        *brakes

    • Gustave Lytton

      P Brooks don’t got a window in the back of his Honda?

      • mexican sharpshooter

        Now that you know, does it really surprise you?

    • prolefeed

      If you have to replace the rear window, then you likely have a Honda currently worth about $100 before repairs.

      If that $400 gets you another 10,000 miles, that’s a great ROI.

      • R C Dean

        Indeed. There’s use value and resale value. I could easily see spending more on the FJ than I could sell it for. I mean, if it needed any work, which it doesn’t after 200K miles.

      • Don escaped Texas

        ^ this is closer to the point ^

        I’d suggest dropping ROI in the discussion* and focus on $/mile: what is a reasonable expectation for the vehicle for the next 10k miles figuring the pending expenditure and the expected expenditures over those 10k miles; as long as you can stay around $0.30 per mile, you owe no one any explanations; the closer you get to $0.60 per mile, the more you should be asking yourself why you don’t have the late model car that you’re already paying for.

        * I hate ROI and insist everyone learn the virtue of NPV. You can’t reliably rank projects based on ROI, but you always can on NPV.

  5. The Late P Brooks

    The investment of time and money is significant, often thousands of dollars per year, especially if the team travels. I loved spending time in the car with my son going to practices and games for many years, but there are opportunity costs. Paying club fees means fewer funds for other important things, and that time spent on the road means less time as a family.

    You could be sinking that time and money into Rube Goldberg competitions. What are the odds of parlaying that training into a job at NASA SpaceX?

  6. The Late P Brooks

    But too many coaches are not invested in players’ personal development, identity, and mental health.

    Oh, fuck off.

    • Ted S.

      As if government-sector coaches are interested in those things.

      Having the lion’s share of youth sport go through government bodies creates its own set of problems, not that I need to make that argument here.

  7. The Late P Brooks

    rural kids have home responsibilities that take time and energy. I often have said one of the most important things I learned at home was to work.

    I have met very few people who were raised on a farm who were lazy. I was not raised on a farm. Maybe I should have been.

    • R C Dean

      Mrs. Dean was raised on a farm. She is incapable of not working.

      • Chafed

        Does she have a sister?

  8. The Late P Brooks

    P Brooks don’t got a window in the back of his Honda?

    Have you ever wondered if a weedeater can sling a rock hard enough to break a car window?

    • Fourscore

      You don’t have a riding lawn mower? Garage windows break too.

    • Gustave Lytton

      Nope. I’ve been hit by flying rocks and other objects weedeating and clearing brush to know now.

  9. The Late P Brooks

    If you have to replace the rear window, then you likely have a Honda currently worth about $100 before repairs.

    As I used to tell people, “You can spend a whole lot of money turning a $500 car into an $800 car.”

    *adjust accordingly for Joe Biden’s America

  10. juris imprudent

    Hmm, so no one should play sports because of the odds against rising to the top?

    • Fourscore

      The one-on-one back yard hoops.

      “Vern Mikkelson drives, and a neat lay left handed lay up, Lakers up by 4”

      “Slater Martin brings the ball down, passes to Pollard, to Mikan in the hole. Mikan fakes rights, goes left and a hook, Lakers up by 2, a minute and a half to play”

      We had to do our own play-by-play ’cause TV wasn’t a reality and we got the news via the 5 tube Arvin. If we didn’t make it to the pros we had a chance on being a commentator.

    • R C Dean

      No, just don’t fool yourself that it’s got a financial return.

      • juris imprudent

        You mean Nike is lying to me about those magical Jordan sneakers.

  11. The Late P Brooks

    Outrageous

    One of the ugliest features of MAGA politics is the eagerness to seize on large scale accidents, disasters, and pandemics to spread conspiracy theories, invent new culture-war obsessions, and pit one region of the country against another.

    Followed by a thousand words of divisive hatemongering and culture war accusations.

    • rhywun

      Yawn.

      So rushing in to say that Uncle Sam will pay the full bill is not pandering? To pick one garbage quote before I had to tap out of that shit.

    • JaimeRoberto (carnitas/spicy salsa)

      That never happened with things like Hurricane Katrina or 9/11.

    • juris imprudent

      Followed by a thousand words of divisive hatemongering and culture war accusations.

      Something that WE of course would never do – as long as you peasants remember your place.

  12. Tres Cool

    Weather. I found that Wright-Patt AFB has an open to the pubic, no-shit, trap and skeet range. I told my kid about it last weekend with tentative plans to shoot today.
    All week long the forecast was for a shitty weekend. Last night I checked- rain and shitty. I left to pick him up this morning- rain and thunderstorms. Didnt grab sunglasses.

    10 minutes after we get into our Saturday breakfast spot, the clouds part, the sun comes out, and you couldnt ask for a prettier afternoon. Not only was it too late by then to change plans, but I had to drive around SW Ohio squinting.

    • Ted S.

      I keep my sunglasses in the car.

      • UnCivilServant

        Where else would you keep them?

      • Fourscore

        I wear mine full time, during waking hours.

        Transition

      • R C Dean

        Same here. Who doesn’t? I mean, other than Tres.

      • mexican sharpshooter

        *raises hand*

      • Tres Cool

        I tend to wear them into the house, place them in the appropriate spot with my wallet, keys, EDC knife, and collect all those things when I leave again.
        But this morning due to the weather (at the time) and the forecast for shittiness, I thought- “not gonna need these”.

      • Tres Cool

        Oh, tin of Grizzly goes with those items too.

      • Ted S.

        Not a tin of Tonio?

    • mexican sharpshooter

      Several AFBs have skeet/trap clubs. My wife’s squadron had a competitive team I played on…not that I was any good.

    • rhywun

      the clouds part, the sun comes out, and you couldnt ask for a prettier afternoon

      Same here in upstate NY. Long time no sun.

      • rhywun

        *peers outside*

        Gray again.

    • whiz

      open to the pubic

      Um, phrasing?

      • Tres Cool

        Deliberate.

    • mexican sharpshooter

      WTH? She not pay a luxury tax or something?

  13. R C Dean

    If you’re wondering how the Mongols came within a whisker* of conquering the world:

    https://twitter.com/OntWtf/status/1773755753632821526

    *If not for the untimely death of two Khans, they would almost certainly have taken all of Europe and the Middle East. When a Khan died, everybody had to go back to Mongolia for the selection of the new Khan. Once, there was nothing that could have stopped them between them and the Atlantic. Another time, there was nothing that could have stopped them from finishing off the Muslim world.

    • juris imprudent

      I was under the impression that the Muslims mostly succeeded in proselytizing/converting them?

      • R C Dean

        They utterly destroyed was is now a big part of Iraq and Iran during their first incursion into that part of the world. The Mongols were quite eclectic on religion – many became Christians or Muslims, but that did nothing to stop them from savagely attacking Christian and Muslim peoples.

      • Chafed

        They had serious EEOC regulations.

  14. JaimeRoberto (carnitas/spicy salsa)

    I was briefly under the illusion that my daughter could get a scholarship for gymnastics after she won the state championship, which really isn’t as impressive as it sounds given the way they divide up the levels and age groups. But I never saw it as a sound investment strategy. I’d have been financially better off just putting the money in a 529.

    • Sensei

      And, naturally, team blue has another opinion.

      https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/30/hochul-wake-nypd-diller-00149839

      “We always ask: ‘Would the families like us there?’ If the families say, ‘No, this is the time for our personal family grieving, we don’t want a politician there,’ we don’t go,” Hochul said. “In this case, we asked. We were told the family is welcoming. We always check, and they said to come, and I went. And no one told me to leave.”

      • R C Dean

        “In this case, we asked. We were told the family is welcoming. We always check, and they said to come, and I went. And no one told me to leave.”

        I find this very hard to believe. The family thinks she has blood on her hands, but they told her she would be welcome? Bullshit. Somebody on her PR staff picked up on some general statement that the wake wasn’t closed or somesuch and is spinning it.

        And, sure, no one told her to leave, but she left after a few minutes without giving a speech, and was heckled in the parking lot by an attendee.

      • Sensei

        I’m of the same opinion.

      • rhywun

        Ditto.

        Count on another round of cherry-picked “crimes down!” spin next week.

      • Tres Cool

        She isnt the only one with bloody hands. While she’s easy to blame from a “buck stops here” approach, the family (and other families) have Albany and that legislature to blame.
        Now Cuomo’s response to CoVID….he has all that blood directly on his hands.

      • Ted S.

        What if they *wanted* to give her a piece of their minds?

      • Sensei

        It’s not wrong. Just lacking any context. So current MSM practice.

  15. The Late P Brooks

    I went. And no one told me to leave.

    But they were saying some damned insolent and intolerable things. It was insufferable.

  16. The Late P Brooks

    Scorn and defiance. Slight regard.

  17. rhywun

    I played https://squaredle.com 03/30:
    37/37 words (+5 bonus words)
    🎯 In the top 22% by accuracy
    🔥 Solve streak: 2 w00t

    • Chafed

      I’m unsurprised. There isn’t a significant market for EVs beyond Tesla.

      I wonder how many potential buyers got their insurance quote and then decided to cancel.

      • Gustave Lytton

        And Fisker is a two time loser.

    • Gustave Lytton

      And they took the money, right? Bird in hand and all that.

  18. The Late P Brooks

    Edmund’s took their long term test Ocean to CarMax and got a $21k appraisal for their 4 month old $68k vehicle.

    But if you hang on to it until the end of it’s useful life, you come out ahead!

  19. The Late P Brooks

    Where did that apostrophe come from?

    • UnCivilServant

      Usually the key is between the semicolon and enter.

    • RBS

      Every historical figure ever was a black chick. It is known.