There’s a lot of skepticism around here about the accuracy of polls, and even about their objectivity. But not all polls are the same. Some tend to favor some candidates over others. We look at a dozen polls that have sampled most or all of the seven battleground states, and compare their results. We also group them by one estimate of their accuracy.
Accuracies were determined from the 2020 presidential race by Atlas Intel, one of the pollsters, who also happened to be the most accurate (by their estimation). Here are the twelve from their list that also have been polling a lot in 2024:
| Pollster | Average error in 2020 (%) |
| Atlas Intel | 1.94 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2.31 |
| Insider Advantage | 2.78 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3.28 |
| Emerson College | 4.15 |
| The Hill/Emerson | 4.15* |
| Marist College | 4.79 |
| Morning Consult | 4.99 |
| New York Times/Siena College | 5.47 |
| Redfield & Wilton | 6.67 |
| CNN | 7.16 |
| Quinnipiac | 8.62 |
*The Hill/Emerson was not listed in the 2020 survey by Atlas Intel, but since Emerson is involved, I am considering The Hill/Emerson results as well as Emerson, and assuming the Emerson error for them.
All the current poll results below have been taken from RealClearPolitics.com, which compiles polling results for the presidential race, as well as the Senate and House races. The combined results of the six most accurate polls above will be compared to the combined results of the six least accurate.
While the national vote totals are often discussed, because the presidential winner is determined by the Electoral College (EC), it is more instructive to look at state by state results. Without including the seven battleground states of AZ (11), GA (16), MI (15), NC (16), NV (6), PA (19), and Wi (10) — the number of EC votes for each state is shown in parentheses — RealClearPolitics projects Trump with 219 EC votes and Harris 216. That leaves 103 to be fought for in those seven states. The polling results of the twelve pollsters above for Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris for the seven battleground states as of October 22 are shown below. A positive number indicates Trump is leading by that percentage, a negative number for Harris. The Electoral College Votes (ECV) projected by each pollster are also shown. [Note: some of these are more than a month old.]
| Pollster | AZ (11) | GA (16) | MI (15) | NC (16) | NV (6) | PA (19) | WI (10) | Trump ECV | Even ECV | Not polled |
| Atlas Intel | +1 | +2 | +3 | -2 | -3 | +3 | -1 | 280 | 0 | 0 |
| Trafalgar | +2 | +1 | +2 | +2 | -1 | +3 | 0 | 296 | 10 | 0 |
| Insider Adv | +3 | +2 | +2 | +1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 296 | 16 | 0 |
| Rasmussen | +2 | +3 | 0 | +5 | +1 | +3 | +2 | 297 | 15 | 0 |
| Emerson | +3 | -1 | -3 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 256 | 25 | 0 |
| Hill/Emerson | +2 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 281 | 25 | 0 |
| Marist | +1 | +1 | -5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 246 | 35 | 6 | |
| Morn Cons | +2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -3 | 230 | 38 | 0 |
| NYT/Siena | +5 | +4 | -1 | +2 | +1 | -3 | -2 | 268 | 0 | 0 |
| RedFld&Wilt | +1 | +2 | -3 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -3 | 252 | 19 | 0 |
| CNN | +5 | -1 | -5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -6 | 230 | 35 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac | +6 | +4 | -3 | -2 | +2 | 260 | 0 | 17 |
While there are some deviations from the overall trend, the six most accurate pollsters tend to give Trump more of an advantage. Five of the six project Trump to exceed the 270 ECV needed to win. Emerson has PA as a dead heat; if it were to go to Trump, they would also give Trump the win. None of the six least accurate give Trump a win with the states he leads, although two of them have states with dead heats that could put Trump at 270 or above.
Looking at the percentage difference for top six combined compared to the bottom six:
| Pollster | AZ (11) | GA (16) | MI (15) | NC (16) | NV (6) | PA (19) | WI (10) | Trump ECV |
| Top six | +1.8 | +1.3 | +0.7 | +1.3 | -0.5 | +2.0 | +0.5 | 306 |
| Bottom six | +2.8 | +1.0 | -2.3 | -0.3 | +0.3 | -1.3 | -2.5 | 252 |
While the bottom six give similar or better results for Trump in AZ, GA, and NV, they favor Harris by an average of about 3% more in the three states usually considered to be the most contested: MI, PA, and WI. There are certainly outliers — Quinnipiac favoring Trump by the widest margin in MI, Atlas Intel favoring Harris by nearly the widest margin in NC – but the overall trend is clear.
Why the discrepancy? It is likely not random since these differences have persisted for quite some time. Methodological differences are probably the reason, some of which could be politically motivated and/or chosen to give a desired result.
A friend of mine has noted that the Rasmussen polls, for example, are automated and not conducted by a live person. He thinks that people supporting Trump are more likely to admit it to a machine than a live human. Given Trump’s demonization in the media, I could see this could be a viable explanation. Trafalgar uses a mix of live polling, integrated voice, digital dial back, and online polling. Atlas Intel uses a proprietary data collection technique (randomized digital recruitment) and post-stratification algorithms (whatever that means). So methodologies vary even among the top four pollsters in the table.
Fivethirtyeight.com has a different view of which polls are the best. They give high marks to New York Times/Siena, Marist, Emerson, and Quinnipiac and lower marks for Insider Advantage, for example, although they include results from more than just the 2020 presidential race. Despite the number of polls taken by Rasmussen, I cannot find a 538 rating for them, but I remember Rasmussen was quite good in the 2016 presidential race. Also, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg claims that Insider Advantage and Trafalgar, among others, are fake GOP polls and will tend to show Republicans winning by 2 to 4 points more than “legitimate” polls [my quotes – he probably has a predictable view regarding legitimate versus illegitimate news organizations, too].
On the other hand, a RealClearPolitics analysis of state polls in 2014 to 2022 gave the following results (some pollsters from above were not included in the RCP list):
| Pollster | Average error in 2020 (%) | Error favors |
| Emerson | 3.9 | D 54% of the time |
| Trafalgar | 4.3 | R 84% |
| New York Times/Siena | 4.3 | D 77% |
| Insider Advantage | 4.4 | R 59% |
| CNN | 4.6 | D 73% |
| Qunnipiac | 4.7 | D 80% |
| Rasmussen | 5.0 | D 65% |
So the relative accuracies are much closer here. A Republican bias for Insider Advantage and Trafalgar are clear, but so is the Democrat bias of most of the others. Emerson appeared to be the most balanced. Rasmussen is an interesting case as my impression had always been that it tended to skew R — in fact it did for a few state polls in the non-presidential years 2018 and 2022 – but it had a D bias in 2020.
For me, the upshot is that if polls by New York Times/Siena, CNN, and Quinnipiac start to show the ECV favoring Trump by even a little, it could be bad news for Harris. There has already been a shift towards Trump, as evidenced by the RCP poll averages now giving Trump 312 ECV, compared to 262 just a few weeks ago.
Will you be voting for the wonderful brilliant kind generous lady, and help break the glass ceiling built by misogynist white supremacists, or the Nazi?
I wouldn’t vote for Harris even under torture. Since Iowa is pretty much in Trump’s pocket, I might go Libertarian, although I’m not totally happy with him, either.
I have been planning on writing in Thomas Massie, but I’m giving a bit of consideration to just voting Trump.
Write in MikeS.
I get a throwaway vote for president this year. KY isn’t going to suddenly swing for Harris. However, with some growth even since I have been here, it will be interesting to see how much Massie’s district changes, even if he is being unopposed on the ballot. There is a write-in line.
🫡🇺🇸
I remember when the LP was running a principled grifter like Harry Browne instead of a turd like the current one.
Has Chase Oliver done anything at all to convince people to throw a vote at him?
Assuming there are other important things to vote on, putting in any effort at all to vote for Oliver is wild to me.
“Please sir, I’d like some more votes”
Not really. I get we have a very controlled media but nothing from him at all. I think even NH and now Massie are like “Trump at least talked to us and was open, so we’re going with him”
As I argue every four years, vote for the Libertarian candidate, not because of the person, but to help the party get to %5
What will said party do with that 5%?
Money siphoned from folks that check the $3 to the Presidental Federal Election Fund on their tax returns. Don’t know how that squares with libertarian ideals, but its always about money.
@OBE – Those schmucks voluntarily checked those boxes.
Now if they’re getting money not donated for dumb purposes…
You mean the people who voluntarily give the $3.
At 5% they achieve “major party” status, and ballot access and invites to debates should open up.
I used to vote Libertarian just for ballot access, etc. But it’s such a shitshow of a dumpster fire of a train wreck that I want it gone, baby, gone. Time for a new third party for freedom people.
Agree 100%. If someone came along and competed with the L’s numbers, I’d gladly back them. I’ve said before, I’d vote communist if they were on the brink of becoming a major party.
Begging the very government that suppresses them to let them play? I get that it is voluntary, but so is just dropping $3 bucks in a can that says “support the Libertarian party”.
How is it “begging”? If there is a fund of voluntarily given dollars for divvying out to “major parties”, why in the world would they not take their 5%?
Yes, lets make sure that we take away 5% of the votes that could be turned to making concessions in a major party, such as head of the ATF, Dept. of EDU, and so on.
How many more windmills are there?
I remember when the LP was running a principled grifter like Harry Browne instead of a turd like the current one.
#metoo
Has Chase Oliver done anything at all to convince people to throw a vote at him?
At FreedomFest 2024 he was bragged on stage about going to Houston Pride and convincing folks there to switch from voting for Biden to voting for Oliver.
FreedomFest 2024 was before Biden dropped out. I think this panel was the day after Trump got shot in Butler, PA.
Oliver going to Houston Pride does absolutely nothing for me, so I’m going to continue to not vote for him.
As I argue every four years, vote for the Libertarian candidate, not because of the person, but to help the party get to %5
But Chase Oliver. Jo Jorgensen is one thing, but Chase Oliver.
He’s on board with “transing the kids”. That is a dealbreaker for me, along with several other positions which escape me at the moment.
At 5% they achieve “major party” status, and ballot access and invites to debates should open up.
That depends on the state.
Not all states use vote totals to determine major party status, and of those that do, some use a threshold other than 5% or look at races other than the Presidential race.
Some states use voter registration numbers.
A while back I found a good summary of what each state uses to determine major party status. I can’t find it now.
Rhy’: I wasn’t aware. I will look into that more. Maybe I’ll just not vote this year. Or write in MikeS
The numbers have changed a little since I wrote this, but the substance is the same.
As a summary of the current situation, here are the RealClearPolitics poll averages in the seven battle ground states and electoral college votes:
State|EC votes|Trump lead (%)|Leader|Trump|Harris
GA 16 2.3 Trump 235 303
AZ 11 1.5 Trump 246 292
NC 16 0.8 Trump 262 276
NV 6 0.7 Trump 268 270
PA 19 0.5 Trump 287 251
WI 10 0.3 Trump 297 241
MI 15 0.1 Trump 312 226
The next closest state is VA with 13 ECV and Harris has a 4.7% lead on average. Assumig Trumo takes GA and AZ, all he needs are two of NC, PA, WI, and MI, or PA plus NV.
I just added a comment that was eaten by the server. The gist was that assuming Trump takes GA and AZ, all he needs are two of PA, NC, WI, and MI, or PA and NV.
Thanks for this. You did a fair bit of analysis that I wanted to do, but was way too lazy to do.
inorite
ditto
Harris pulled ads in NC.
Would be really funny if VA flipped – even if the senate seat stays blue. ..
Unlikely. VA is the primary residence of the deep state.
Why? Doesn’t she have eleventy billion dollars raised?
Trump is within 5% in VA, the next closest thing to a battleground state.
Got a link?
Must have been twitter…hard to track down now. Was skimming a lot of stuff earlier.
If you were directing this to me Ted, it’s realclearpolitics.com , then under the “Election 2024” drop-down menu choose “Latest 2024 polls”.
https://x.com/GrageDustin/status/1851267434193314190?t=F46ZHvrYgDHAxuV3ov2eOA&s=19
Thank you!
I wanna see her cry on live tv.
It was close here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-most-awkward-kamala-moment-yet
“They all buffered at once”
LOL
How has that not been superimposed with the dude from Temple of Doom ripping out the heart of Trump?
I would just like to see her graciously concede. We won’t get that I fear.
No, RJ, we won’t. You don’t graciously concede to Worse-Than-Hitler.
Thank you. I always appreciate your number-crunching articles. I know this takes a lot of work.
I find I’ve got Scott Adams on the brain: Meaning that if it’s a poll, scientist, or pundit, the only thing that matters is their ability to predict. People can say anything and pull numbers out of their rear, but let’s see how accurate they are. I’m looking forward to your comparison in the next few weeks.
Thanks. I usually only post things I’m doing for myself anyway 🙂
Just don’t take pictures of that and show them.
Note to self: watch phrasing!
Apparently RCP just posted today a poll by Susquehanna that has Harris leading Trump by 5 points in MI, although Harris has a new one with Trump up by 1 in MI. That tips the RCP average for MI to Harris, so they have Trump with 297 ECV, not 312.
He thinks that people supporting Trump are more likely to admit it to a machine than a live human. Given Trump’s demonization in the media, I could see this could be a viable explanation.
Shy Tory is certainly a thing, but I think there’s another mechanism at play. Trump voters are more likely to be skeptical of media institutions and pollsters, and are more likely to hang up on or otherwise avoid taking the poll.
Agreed. They way my wife knew Trump would win in 2016 was that on Facebook, she saw a few people posting a lot about Hillary, and many more people being silent.
True. It really comes down to which side is more likely to give an honest (or any) response.
This is a big reason why I just don’t trust the polls. Setting aside intentional bias issues and some of the cohort analysis techniques they use that blow up the representativeness of the poll, I think there’s a major issue with getting good solid datasets these days. IMO, the error margin today is much larger than advertised because they’re not getting a truly representative sample.
Polls are as much about manipulating, whether traditional push polling or just publicizing the results, than merely trying to observe. Schrödinger is more of the father of polling than George Gallup.
From the Colorado College Catalyst:
What do the heir to the Walton family fortune, Rupert Murdoch’s daughter-in-law and the co-founder of Netflix have in common?
They’re all funding a political reform that will transform voting in Colorado.
On the ballot this fall is one of Colorado’s most controversial and expensive initiatives: Proposition 131, which would establish open primaries and ranked choice voting (RCV) statewide.
Ranked choice voting refers to a process by which candidates are ranked in order of preference on the ballot. If one candidate receives an outright majority of the votes, they win. If no one does, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and votes are redistributed until someone receives over 50%. Advocates say RCV weakens the power of traditional parties and reduces political polarization, giving candidates with wide support an edge.
This sounds suspiciously similar to the one on the Idaho ballot about which I am being bombarded with ads.
Is this some sort of national project?
If I had the slightest intention to vote, it would be against ranked choice. I don’t like the current winner-take-all MANDATE! system, but it’s better than seeing Californicated.
Advocates say RCV weakens the power of traditional parties and reduces political polarization, giving candidates with wide support an edge.
Yes they say this – but they have no proof and poor logic on top of it.
But our gaming theories show this is the superior method for divining actual voter desire!
Overcomplication for overcomplication’s sake.
Vote neigh.
People who think Solomon should have cut the baby in half anyways.
I miss how beautiful Colorado is, but it’s turning into California.
Yes. Makes me sad. I miss the countryside.
It’s about submarining even more wacky undesired candidates into office and choke down opposition. Once the party hacks realize they could have red/blue state 4 evah!, they’ll be completely on board with it.
I think there is one of those in AZ, too. I need to go through the referenda before I vote on Tuesday, see if there are any I won’t vote “Fuck no. Cut spending.” on.
While I’m always skeptical of polls I really appreciate you laying it all out. Beyond the polls I’m really taken aback by the strength of the supposedly weak Trump ground game. He and his team are everywhere and that MSG rally was insane.
I’ll admit I would love to see him crush. It might actually destroy the old media once and for all.
It might. I think that Bezos thing might be an early indicator. I’m also hoping the Dem’s shit show of a party falls apart.
Bezos and LATimes. But, yeah, I want some more laminations.
A Jeff Bezos article in WaPo.
We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement.
So no mea culpa on not being accurate. He’s just concerned with image.
I’m texting with my siblings. My big sis is on a cruise with Mom and Dad. Those two are die-hard Dems who watch MSNBC. They told my sister they don’t know how they raised four Nazi’s. These people are broken. Remember that mental health crisis people are talking about if Trump wins? I’m 100% sure it will be huge.
Oof.
Sorry, dude. My family is like that as well. NPR poisoning has taken its toll.
I’ve got family that believes some really dark things. Just no way to get them out of that.
Oof, sorry, dude.
Mom got a “if you can’t deal with hearing opinions you disagree with, best not to talk about politics” a few years back and that policy has been maintained nicely.
My mothers idiot keeps violating that rule.
My wife has a friend whose mom was the same as my parents. He and his mom used to argue politics all the time. Somehow he’s gotten her to watch Fox News with him (not the best, but still), and they’ve had a lot of discussions about it. At 89 years old she’s a changed woman.
‘it will be yuge.’
Fixed that for you.
Hope your parents sort out their priorities.
Same. It’s sad to see it. Even after the interesting democrats fled to the new republican party, they still hate it all, think Trumps is somehow “fearmongering” about stopping WWIII. No amount of evidence will change their minds.
If I had Nazi children taking a cruise would not be on my list of priorities.
To be fair, they had already embarked when this information was presented to them by MSNBC. They are sailing through the Panama Canal. I hope my sister doesn’t stop for a clandestine meeting with an ex-SS officer while she’s there.
I often wonder how my parents managed to raise 2 commies out of 3 kids.
They looked over the same Berlin Wall as I did and instead of saying to themselves “what a shit show” said, “I want that for the good ol U S of A.”
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0301357
Colorado has voted the same way for over 100 years. When asked why these changes are needed now, Curtis Hubbard, a spokesperson for Kent Thiry, emphasized that RCV “improves outcomes for candidates from disadvantaged communities, women and candidates of color.”
Now we’re getting somewhere.
Fuck that. No vote incoming!
Oh, so this puts a really big thumb on the scale?
So a Dem fantasy. Of course.
RCV is an abomination. Its fans are like crossfitter’s; they will not shut up about it.
My even more problematic vote is for Congress – the incumbent useless Republican or ???
There are a ton of propositions on our ballot so I will definitely be voting. But my choices for the races are pretty grim.
It’s pretty here, but the politics are just dreadful.
You live in my town?
Massie is unopposed, so there is a plus.
Other than that its two constitutional amendments. One is to enshrine that only citizens shall vote. They even included “idiots and insane persons” as people who cannot vote. Other amendment is a bit tricky and sounds good but I question it. Its to allow the general assembly to use public funds for ‘school choice’ but its not clear on that entails. To me, its a snake in the grass.
All coiled up and hissing?
Once the Statehouse digs its teeth into the Charter schools, they will dictate them. Thats why I am not sure on that one.
The propositions here are
– allow sports betting
(yes)
-allow baby murder and transing kids
(no)
– allow another riverboat casino on the other side of the state
(yes)
-only citizens vote and make ranked choice unconstitutional
(yes)
-give more latitude to the executive branch for investing public dollars in certain investment vehicles
(no)
Wai wai wai wai wai.
The abortion prop says something about transing kids? I’m looking at my sample ballot and didn’t get that out of it.
“To me, it’s a snake in the grass.”
Well, don’t step on it.
Deep blue Mass, so my vote does not matter on the national front.
Or even the statewide front.
The ballot questions are the only reason I’m voting:
https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts_2024_ballot_measures
My municipality also wants to double the Community Preservation Act property tax surcharge from 1.5% to 3%. They can get fucked with that, as they will do nothing but waste the money.
So stop tipping in Mass…got it.
That one is especially stupid and servers are widely against it.
1: Need more info.
2: No
3: No
4: Need more info.
5: No
That’s pretty much where I am, UnCiv; re: #4, it looks like it makes cultivating magic mushrooms and the like for personal use legal but also introduces a pile of licensing, so I dunno.
#1 – auditing the legislature is theoretically good, but having an executive branch positon do it is problematic. Independent auditor? Maybe.
I’ll admit I would love to see him crush. It might actually destroy the old media once and for all.
I’m honest-to-Kali rooting for a Trump win resulting in a massive spike in the suicide rate.
The wailing and gnashing of teeth will be biblical.
One of my rationales for voting for Trump (LA is R +>15) was I really want a Trump popular vote win to see if the states that signed onto that popular vote pact thingy stick to their “principles” regarding the Electoral College.
I am willing to bet that their commitment to undermine the EC will melt instantly (Team Blue’s only real principle is power). It would be fun to see them tie themselves in knots rationalizing their flip after over two decades of agitating for dismantling it.
Good reasoning. We will get to see in real-time how it was the wrong popular vote if that were to happen.
That would be soooo delicious.
IIRC New York has signed onto it, if they honor it*, it is a done deal in the EC.
*They won’t
It only takes effect when enough states sign up.
Not enough states have signed up.
All projection all the time.
Hubbard said that if Proposition 131 passes, “It’s going to be important to work on voter education to communicate to Colorado voters and help them understand how ranked choice voting works with our election, to design ballots that are not confusing and streamlined, and similar across jurisdictions.”
You have to pass it before you tell people what’s in it. That sounds kinda familiar.
All you need to know is it is ranked choice voting. Closes the door on any alternative candidates, immediately. Still blows my mind our Libertarian presidential candidate supports it. He’s supporting his own extinction.
Why does it close the door on the libertarians? Australia and Ireland use ranked choice and have functional multiparty systems.
Yeah, I really don’t get the hate for RCV.
“Australia and Ireland use ranked choice and have functional multiparty systems.”
Parliamentary setups always have a lot more room for multiple parties.
I am hoping that the PR joke and then the beeper joke don’t push some folks away, but this late in the game probably doesn’t move the needle much.
“I misspoke. I didn’t really mean Puerto Rico. I meant Haiti. That place is a shithole.”
TBF a lot of the US is a shithole now too.
This is pretty glib, does lurk here?
https://jeffgoldstein.substack.com/p/notes-from-a-cluttered-mind-4f0
Nice
Excellent. Thanks, Yusef. I used to read PW a million years ago and kind of lost tack of him.
I don’t know, I agree with the vast a majority, but it seems like he has a bit of a Civil War II boner.
If “Leave me alone, or else” is Civil War II bonerism, I guess I took the little blue pill.
There’s a difference between being ready and wishing for it. To me he seemed more latter than former. YMMV
Love “Crayon Box Mafia”.
Me too
I loves me some bad kitty:
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/sudden-outbreaks-of-bad-cattitudes
Britain lets off another member of a rape gang.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly2xv1yx83o
Guess he didn’t get his posting to Osan or Okinawa.
OTH thought crimes…
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/british-man-sentenced-18-years-ai-make-child-115221320
(Although quite awful.)
Upside down world.
Kamala shit the bed with putting conditions on a potential interview with Rogan. Rogan is now going have JD on.
I’m with Tundra from the ded thred. 3 hours each Walz and Harris in separate appearances. 🍿 🤡
Vote For Pie !
*votes Pie for Childcatcher General*
Pecan or Strawberry Rhubarb?
merdenea
Get your fucking strawberries out of my rhubarb pie!
I thought I knew you, MikeS.
This place or rather, SF, has sullied me on strawberry and blackberries.
Well it only took to be within a little over a week left in the election campaign for Harris to finally get a Bush on her side. Now, its a lessor known and I don’t even think even Bush-ites remember, but its Barbara Pierce Bush. I believe most were a Jenna fan.
Just to see how quick the Dem machine is..
Wikipedia already updated that tidbit
“In October 2024, Bush endorsed and campaigned for Democratic nomine Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.”
Another member of the idle would be aristocracy.
“Harris to finally get a Bush on her side”
*deletes joke about the high-profile wimminz campaigning for Kams*
https://preview.redd.it/love-letter-in-three-parts-v0-hg09y79vaqxd1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=86a911d11f588037ea005d3d1b9afc321dc130d2
RIP Teri Garr
https://variety.com/2024/film/news/teri-garr-dead-young-frankenstein-tootsie-1236193831/
Another disease that deserves it. Fuck multiple sclerosis
Indeed.
I’ll miss her knockers.
Ditto.
I read that. Interesting that they picked “Young Frankenstein” of all her works to headline.
Which would you have picked?
Mr. Mom, Close Encounters.
Adorable lady.
Similar to Toxteth.
Nothing wrong with “Young Frankenstein” it’s a great film.
Regardless of the relative quality/popularity of the movies themselves, I propose that her specific roles in Mr. Mom and Close Encounters were probably not as memorable as her role in YF.
I never saw Mr Mom, and all I remember from Close Encounters was the crazy mashed potato sculptor.
Head
I suspect the average casual movie-goer only remembers Michael Keaton and Richard Dreyfuss from those two films.
Can confirm
So I watched Close Encounters for the first time last year (? I lose time) for my medical coding course. I was underwhelmed.
UCS, Mr. Mom is very funny. Early John Hughes, featuring Martin Mull. The supermarket scene is my fave, although she isn’t in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXep_sMhgTo
Moj, me too.
Two roles in which she doubts her husband’s sanity.
I defin
#meneither and I did not remember her from CEotTK.
Young Frankenstein for me.
I rewatched Close Encounters again not that long ago. It sucks. Even Teri couldn’t save it.
Dang.
Don’t forget Star Trek.
Natural choice to play Phoebe’s mom Phoebe on Friends.
Indeed. She was very good at it.
I’m with Robodruid, her guest role on Star Trek? That’s what I thought of first.
IMDB listed “Tootsie” first in the list of memorable roles.
RIP, If “Let it Ride” is on any Streaming service I have access to, I’ll watch it tonight in her honor, and because it’s damn near a perfect movie.
https://www.ft.com/content/c5df0ec4-d55e-425a-bc52-79b2f49dd983
Kamala Harris to denounce Donald Trump at site of his January 6 speech
Kamala Harris will evoke the January 6 Capitol riot at her final big campaign speech on Tuesday, as she assails Donald Trump for his “endless desire for retribution” and urges voters to “turn the page” on his era.
Harris will make the speech at Washington’s Ellipse, the site of Trump’s speech in which he called on his supporters to “fight like hell” just before they stormed the Capitol buildings in a bit to halt Joe Biden from being declared president.
The vice-president’s campaign said the location had been chosen to highlight the contrast between her message and that of her Republican opponent, who she has repeatedly criticised as being focused on himself and his desire for revenge
Continuing with a winning strategy.
Retreat back to DC and make a passioned plea to remain in power. Yep…winning strategy
Maybe she’ll break out a Hunger Games hairdo and outfit to really complete the scenario?
“When we fight, we win!”
— Tim Walz calling for insurrection
Is she going to call for her supporters to peacefully go to the ballot box?
She keeps talking about “turning the page”. She wants everyone to think she’s the change candidate.
All while saying she isn’t. Its a bold strategy Cotton.
“Different Page, Same Story.”
I wouldn’t have done anything different the last 4 years (that all you voters are discontented with) and I’m going to do everything different in the next 4 years (if you elect me). Sure, I can see the typical Democratic voter being on board with that. Anyone with even half of a functioning brain? Not so much.
AYFKM? Your side almost certainly stole an election.
Nothing he is likely to do is going to approach what you actually deserve.
I’m telling you, this “Trump is worse than Hitler” messaging isn’t to convince voters. It’s to motivate cheating, and to justify fuckery and violence if Trump wins.
I agree.
She’s going to the J6 spot to say “You Ain’t Seen Nothin Yet!”
Any suggestions for ways to download youtube videos? All my plugins for firefox have stopped working with some of the recent youtube updates. Any alternate websites (I used keepvid a long time ago)? Like UCS said earlier – it’s getting more and more irritating – but I like getting offline copies of certain music videos, etc.
“4K Video Downloader” app works for me. Frequent updates, not borked yet.
Limited version is free. I think limit is 10 downloads a day.
link? I see a couple with that name on the firefox extension page right now. Thanks.
Application. Nothing to do with Firefox.
https://www.4kdownload.com/products/videodownloader-42
“Chopin famously wrote in ‘small forms,’ but this work, lasting about one minute, is shorter than any other waltz by him,” adds the statement.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/29/style/new-chopin-waltz-discovered-scli-intl/index.html
Cool, but really?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minute_Waltz
That said this is usually well over one minute.
Tell me if you figure it out. I’d like to download a digital copy of that clean version of “Evil Roy Slade” I posted earlier this year.
Nooooooooooooo!
Kamala Harris will evoke the January 6 Capitol riot at her final big campaign speech on Tuesday, as she assails Donald Trump for his “endless desire for retribution” and urges voters to “turn the page” on his era.
Blah blah fucking blah. Maybe I missed it, but is Trumpolini foreordained to vanish in a puff of acrid smoke if he loses?
I’m guessing Trump is way ahead and wins despite rigging efforts. I don’t think the Dems have any energy behind Kamala.
If that happens, things get real. Will they disqualify Trump and toss him in jail before the inauguration? Some of the rhetoric is hinting in that direction.
Things could get super spicy in at that point.
Will they disqualify Trump and toss him in jail before the inauguration?
I hope there are still enough people on the left with a hint of self-preservation to avoid going that route.
Don’t underestimate the self-delusion that rules the left, or the resources being shoved into that by a few billionaires*.
* Pepperidge Farms remembers when that kind of money in politics was EVVVVvvvviiiilllllllllllll.
I think this is the case. Kamala has hired Mark Elias, so get ready for shady legal maneuvers. And Jamie Raskin is “gaming” how to not certify the election. It escapes me how Jan. 6 was an insurrection though there is no proof it was planned, and here this guy is months in advance scheming to steal an election and it’s just fine.
Progjection
Mark Elias has been buttfucking our elections for years and years now. If it gets to be lamppost time, I hope there is one with his name on it.
Will they disqualify Trump and toss him in jail before the inauguration? Some of the rhetoric is hinting in that direction.
They have certainly painted themselves into a hole. Maybe the Congressional Democrats will flee the country in order to paralyze the government. That’ll teach us.
What if Trump wins?
Remember in the old days when the town bully would get a justly deserved ass-whuppin’ and get up off the ground, dust himself off, shake hands with the victor, and vow to be a better man? Yeah, me neither.
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1851135708741660740
Vegas odds favor Trump.
I want to see New York flip.
Just for the freakout.
I say kamala gets this by a nose
Popular vote or Electoral College?
both
NEVER let the kamal get its nose under the tent!
👏
after winning needs to shut down twitter nationalize spacex and jail Musk.
Wait…Pie is Keith Olbermann?!!!!
I’m afraid you are right. Get ready for a New Tea Party (hopefully, more effective this time.)
I early voted yesterday – it took 90 minutes of waiting in line. Last Sunday we had a family get together at our place to celebrate my daugher’s 31st birthday. My sister in law spouted off about seeing a big pick up truck flying large Trump flags on her way over and proclaimed she would be moving to Canada if Trump wins. I told her I would help her pack…… which got a lot of laughs from the crowd. My wife stepped in and said that’s it – no more discussing politics. Election season is definitely affecting mental amongst the proggy set.
WTF. The way I’m hearing it, you might as well vote on Election Day because nobody else does anymore.
I will be.
#metoo
The Senate is looking interesting lately. RCP has the Rs with a solid 51, and now WI, OH, and PA have the R challenger within 1.2% or less. Insider Advantage just released a poll for the Wisconsin senate seat that has the R up by 1%.
Republicans: “Oh curses, we’ve won. Now we actually have to govern.”
That’ll cut into my tee times…
“Goddamit. Now we have too many seats for Snow and Murkowski to guarantee the Dems get what they want.”
I’m guessing 51-49, but how the heck can Cruz be in danger of losing in Texas?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/rnc-demands-immediate-action-pennsylvania-secretary-commonwealth-amid/
Local shenanigans!
They must be terrified.
“sternly-worded letter”!!!
“We have investigated ourselves and found no wrongdoing.”
Failure theater.
How about, oh I dunno, Make Election Day Great Again and stop wasting tax dollars on spreading it across a week or more? Just a thought.
Also, various betting sites have Trump favored around 60/40, R control of Senate 84/16, and R control of the House 51.5/48.5. Interesting that the one institution they control now is the least likely.
President is one race – easy to examine ad nausium.
Senate is 33 races, most of which are currently blue this year, meaning they’re at higher risk of losses.
House is over four hundred races.
NY also gerrymandered tye districts since the previous election, which may flip two or three seats.
No, there are less than 100 house races that have any chance of flipping parties.
For the first time in my life, I will vote a straight ticket — for the republicans — because fuck every democratic candidate at every level of government. May they rot in hell.
I have never in my life voted for a Democrat. Always Republican or 3rd party – Ross Perot was right!
If Lindsey Graham wins his primary in 2 years (I’ll be voting for whoever has the best chance to beat him), I’ll be voting against him in the general election. Don’t care if he’s running against Karl Marx.
+ 1 War boner
That’s my theory of voting now – plenty of people to vote against, even if there aren’t many worth voting for. It’s not a question of who I like better, it’s who I despise the most.
Same.
And for the same reason.
If I lived in a non Solid Red state, I’d certainly vote for Trump, hilariously the best wrench thrown into DC for (how many?) decades/ generations. However, I am not voting for several reasons. I’m not voting in local/state elections cuz I am aware of my ignorance. I certainly don’t trust any of them. My detailed Peru, IN knowledge of local politics, along with personally knowing Lt. Gov. Crouch and some of the machinations, aren’t enough for me to justify anything but None of the Above, which ain’t an option.
*Vote for Harris: All the predictable horror-shit we expect. And more!
*Vote for Trump: All the Dem, Deep State will be against him, designed to make him fail at every single turn. And more!
–> I don’t want to vote FOR Trump cuz then (as an intellectually moral person), I’d have to ‘Own’ every nasty, chicane thrown his way. (And the ones he self-inflicts.)
*Vote for Chase Oliver: I don’t love him but it would give more votes to the 5% number. Waiting in voting lines here ain’t worth it, along with important affairs coming up today. Everything’s confirmed, I begin as a Grifols Phlebotomist next week at 9am.
“Bad news comes, don’t you worry even when it lands/
Good news will work its way to all them plans..”
Its amazing to think that the immigrants who did everything right are pissed at the immigrants who jumped the line but in turn, they are even more pissed at the current immigrants who are getting showered with cash from the government. I think that is a dynamic I didn’t think I’d see.
It’s infuriating to think about the hand outs to illegals and foreign assholes while people 40 miles from me are living outdoors after a disaster without an ounce of assistance from the government.
And that I think is driving a couple %points of votes that normally don’t materialize. People in the sticks are getting hit with the shitty policies that normally didn’t have any impact other than ‘oh they changed the form again’.
These stories make my blood boil. We’d be better off with no government.
https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1851271713675153606
Kamala could have decided to go to the Lincoln Memorial to give a speech evoking Martin Luther King’s dream.
Well, not really.
She could have done it in his voice! Opportunity missed.
SOW: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5EM8mS3paY
Harris wants to talk to Rogan – for a few minutes.
Joe isn’t having it.
https://x.com/joeroganhq/status/1851122244946481261
How often does Rogan travel TO the guest instead of vise versa? Her team is ridiculous.
Yeah, she’ll schedule an hour, show up late, then cut it short. As she did with her Fox interview.
Her team doesn’t want her to say a single syllable on his show, though. This is just them running out the clock without actually refusing.
After Kamala wins one thousand years of prosperity will be upon the US. and the haters will hate.
It’s true. Let’s work on getting you over here to experience it firsthand. There are some great houses available in downtown Baltimore that we can hook you up with.
but I don’t like crab cakes.
If that doesn’t work, there are some affordable properties in the Kensington area in Philly.
Cheaper than a new car!
And very walkable!
Wouldn’t it be safer to run?
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.9976695,-75.115256,3a,75y,135.26h,74.27t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sUw0RM8PGe0nz6kPEr3poiA!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fcb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile%26w%3D900%26h%3D600%26pitch%3D15.734626698968412%26panoid%3DUw0RM8PGe0nz6kPEr3poiA%26yaw%3D135.25824403143827!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205410&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTAyNy4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D
They look sociable enough. 🙂
Is that a man giving another man a Kamala special?
Downtown Baltimore is fine, not many houses so Pie is going up in a condo. If you’re looking to torture him you need to be West, East, or in the middle.
Baltimore is probably worse than Philly overall, but they can say at least we don’t have Kensington in Baltimore.
Accuracies were determined from the 2020 presidential race by Atlas Intel, one of the pollsters, who also happened to be the most accurate (by their estimation)
Convenient.
Reminds me of a project at work. “We did some analysis to determine which of the Gen AI models is best at a contract analysis task, and GPT-4 won!”
Yeah, their analysis consisted of asking GPT-4 which output was most accurate.
Procedures were followed.
Yes, they did only look at one race (2020 prez). 538 looks at all races.
USA Today is out, too:
https://nypost.com/2024/10/29/media/gannett-owned-usa-today-wont-endorse-presidential-candidate/
Are the Gannett papers the ones Soros just bought, by any chance?
No, he bought a bunch of radio stations, I believe.
RIP Teri Garr.
I may have to watch Young Frankenstein tonight.
There was (is) a tradition of writing in Almanian OR Animal/Steve Smith.
RIP Almanian.
I remember that car refurb show he was on.
*restoration
“220, 221: whatever it takes.”
Mercury Marauder, IIRC.
When did he die? I wish I had a better sense of time, but everything seems like yesterday.
STEVE SMITH SINGLE ISSUE VOTESQUATCH. CASCADIA FREEDOM.
Any relation?
Famous Yeti’s Pizza in Stoughton
Pizza place accidentally spiked dough with THC, sickening dozens
https://arstechnica.com/health/2024/10/thc-tainted-pizza-sickens-dozens-in-wisc-owner-blames-oil-bottle-mix-up/
Steve prefers to spike pizza (and any other foodstuff) with Rohypnol.
I will write in Semi-Bright Border Collie.
I will also take the “I voted” sticker and put it on (one of) my holster.
RIP Almanian.
I could go with a SugarFree write-in
“SugarFree 2024 – he’s not stuck in here with you, you’re stuck in here with him!”
For some reason, NASA is treating Orion’s heat shield problems as a secret
TW -TopMen – https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/for-some-reason-nasa-is-treating-orions-heat-shield-problems-as-a-secret/
Expensive or a lot of lying was done to say it was ready to go.
Also: how far removed from selling the stock can we get before revealing we are lucky we didn’t kill two people?
Orion – Lockheed Martin.
Different big defense contractor behind on everything for NASA.
Ah misread…thanks for clearing that up
Hopefully I’m not stepping on a lynk.
The Vatican’s mascot, 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDf1GHcbFWU
Looking generally at all of the big issues any one of them and the way they have been created/handled/exacerbated should be enough to not only kick the D’s out but to dissolve the party and probably jail a very sizable number of them.
sounds like a fascistic threat to me
News agencies aren’t getting their required updates that the Harris campaign received. Stop calling Trump a fascist.
I like Mick Foley and endorse whoever you want (just endorsed Kamala) but you are a gnat in the light of the Hulkster.
People were entertained by Hulk, people just wanted to watch you bleed Foley.