Living in Pinellas County, Florida, I’ve “survived” two major hurricanes in what? two? three? weeks? The time kind of ran together at some point. Anyhow, I heard from a number of current and former colleagues and diverse friends who don’t get this sort of weather along the lines of “surely you’re evacuating with your family, right?” Several offered to get me a hotel room, which means they probably actually like me. Or at least care about my kids. It made me think “there’s probably an article here Swiss or Tonio can use to fill a space.” So, here’s a walkthrough of my hurricane prep and decision tree.
If the Forecast Model Runs Directly Over Your House 3 Days Out…
You’re not getting a direct hit. That’s not a 100% guarantee, but it’s 95%. When I saw that forecast Sunday, I was greatly relieved. It always goes somewhere else, so we could be pretty sure we weren’t getting the eye over our house.
The Storm is Big, But Not Uniform
Some storms are bigger than others, but Milton only had about a 25 mile radius of hurricane force winds, so even though the winds at the eyewall may have been 105 mph at landfall, the largest gust we took was more like 85 mph. Roofs here are rated for 125 if they’ve been installed in the last 20 years. I saw one roof on my street that lost a couple of sets of shingles, and that one still had the underlayer.
“Run from the water, hide from the wind”
One of our local weather personalities who has developed a following outside his viewing area, Denis Phillips, put forth a set of rules several years ago for hurricane prep. His most famous is Rule #7 – “Stop freaking out….until I tell you to. We’re fine.” But another saying of his is the title of this section. In any hurricane the storm surge kills far more people than the wind. If you live within sight of the beach, you should be getting the hell out. If you live in a mobile home or RV, get the hell out. I’ll add an additional one — if you have large trees within range of your roof, maybe leave. None of those apply to my property. My wife and I had a stay-or-go conversation Monday morning, and my question to her was very simple: “Do you think anyone will be physically harmed if we stay?” She didn’t think so and neither did I.
Why Not Go Anyways?
I’m sure there are a lot of people who say, “cool story, bro, but why not just go anyways?” Two big reasons, one more selfish than the other. The selfish reason is: Once I get on the road, I’m stuck with at least a million other Florida Men and Women of questionable mental state. We’re going to be competing for gas, food, road space. I’m giving up a lot of control. It’s four to five hours to the top of the state on normal days. We could be talking about loading up four kids, two toddlers for 8-10 hours. If we have car problems, what do we do? If the hurricane turns north (or south, but I’d go north because we have friends in Tallahassee still) and there’s no gas where we’re going, what do we do then?
The less selfish reason is that something like 1.2 million people were under mandatory evacuation orders on the west coast of Florida. If I stay put, I’m one less car competing for gas and road space and all the other services. We live in a 65 year old concrete block house. We’re probably not going to be crushed under an entirely collapsed house. I’ve never seen a whole roof go in the seven years I’ve been here. Shingles, but never the entire thing.
So What Happened?
Everything was fine. I did not really see an alligator swimming up our street, but it got all the kids to the window. It got a little windy, but since the wind was out of the north for 75% of the storm, and my house faces west, it didn’t feel as bad as some other storms. I had to go check that a neighbor’s garage door was closed at about 6:00pm Wednesday night (my son had fed their chickens earlier, and the wife panicked that he might have forgotten to close it [he didn’t]), by which time we were well into tropical storm force winds. Of course, they live up the street north, so that walk felt like someone turned on a hose, stuck their finger in the nozzle, and pointed it at my eyes from about a foot away.
We were without power for almost exactly 3 days at our house. My mother-in-law, a quarter of a mile away, was on the single block that never lost power. So we always had a place for hot showers and cold A/C. My parents also live nearby and had a whole home generator on a natgas line that ran their house for 3 days, no problem. No wind damage at any of those properties. Storm was Wednesday night, by Thursday afternoon grocery stores were open. Friday places started getting gas deliveries. We had trash service Friday on schedule. Guy was real apologetic he could only take our actual trash, and not the debris. I was just grateful those guys came to work at all.
We did take some water in the half-basement of our house. Not the first time we’ve had a little water on the floor, but given that we got like 16″ of rain, it was worse than usual, and bad enough to ruin some drywall, so I’ve got to tear out and replace the bottom four feet in that whole area. While I’m at it, I’ll water seal the concrete block. I’m also having some people out to dig us a nice French drain in the back of the house. We’ve been joking with the neighbors that hurricanes are God’s way of telling you its time to start that home repair project you’ve been putting off.
Lots of people down hill at the beach got double fucked. I dropped my youngest at day care Monday morning, and there were four semi-length dump trailers coming off the beach full of washed out house and appliance stuff at 8am. I’m sure they’ll be making 4-5 trips a day for at least the rest of the week. I feel for them. I suspect there’s going to be a pretty severe real estate correction here. Unfortunately, condo owners are going to take a bath, and many of them are retirees.
Last note: I put a 5 gallon bucket of salt water (3lb of salt to 34lb of water — 20g salt/cup of water if you want to scale down. I had a 3lb [1362g] box of salt, so that’s how I ended up with the weird 34lbs [40g salt/pint, a pint is a pound — 1360/40 = 34]. 4.25 gallons is a nice fill level in a 5 gallon bucket) in the deep freezer a couple of days before the storm — approximate freezing temp 22F. I went 36 hours with it off before I hooked it up to a generator. It was still mostly frozen, just starting to get slushy. All the meat in there was still hard frozen. I continue to recommend filling space in the freezer with these for potential multi-day power outages. Probably the best thing I’ve done with chemistry knowledge since I stopped making homebrew beer.
I assume you were well stocked on meth.
I thought meth grows on trees down there.
Geeked to the gills. I could count the raindrops in the downpour.
My my brother in-law and wife live there. Offered to house them for a couple days in SC. They said “no thanks” for the same reasons and were fine.
“It always goes somewhere else”
Too true.
We had 3 back in 2005. Power out 2 weeks, 2 weeks, 3 weeks.
Stuff started to mildew. White spots everywhere.
Since then the state upgraded the infrastructure. Have not lost power for more than a short while.
Also… I upgraded from hurricane shutters to hurricane windows. This was a 10/10. Shutters up and the house is black. Plenty of light with the new windows. Totally different experience.
Once I get on the road, I’m stuck with at least a million other Florida Men and Women of questionable mental state. We’re going to be competing for gas, food, road space. I’m giving up a lot of control. It’s four to five hours to the top of the state on normal days. We could be talking about loading up four kids, two toddlers for 8-10 hours. If we have car problems, what do we do? If the hurricane turns north (or south, but I’d go north because we have friends in Tallahassee still) and there’s no gas where we’re going, what do we do then?
That’s just what a white supremacist would say.
Also, Milton was super weird…..
It was massive just a day out…. and then dry air just cut the entire bottom half off. We had outer bands coming across the state, dropping dozens of tornadoes… and then it just evaporated. None of it made it to us, just 20 miles away.
I have been playing Agitator and posting nut punches…… which can make one a little tender.
So here is a little sliver of pickled ginger to clear the palate.
https://x.com/hartgoat/status/1846668436984025202?s=19
That would have ended differently without the video.
Yup.
And brandishing should have been charged, if you ask me.
Intro substantive law class used the state code and automotive supplement as the sole textbooks. A lot of the class was the instructor giving scenarios and us coming up with every possible charge. It was fun and really hammered elements of a law, definitions, citing code, etc. Anyways, brandishing would be just the first. So many other charges possible from that clip.
While I have no doubt he could be charged with brandishing, I think that having a gun in your hand in your own house should not be a crime.
gun in your hand in your own house
I think cyto was implying a brandishing charge for the bacon, not the home owner. If the home owner is to be believed, he wasn’t armed.
The cop was brandishing. Homeowner’s hands were empty.
HO might have had a weapon on their belt (which would account for the cop drawing because of their textbook overreaction/need to dominate) but nothing in the HO’s hands.
Some context would be good.
From the video snippets, I’d guess he’s not allowing the power company access to his property and they went to the sheriff’s office to get it. He says they don’t have an easement, but I have no idea if it’s true or required for what they want.
Be careful what you wish for, the power company may just shut the power off at the pole.
Power company here will come, if requested, to cut the trees down that may fall across over head lines. Most of my power comes from under ground lines but I did have them take a tree down at the cabin last year. Dead tree, over head lines. I had to clean up the mess but fair enough. We rarely have a power outage, never in the winter. Summer storms but a 4 hour outage is even unusual.
The dude has a goalpost on his lawn. That’s beautiful.
The cop drawing seems a little over the top.
Did you not hear the attack chickens in the background?
Gustave, every chicken is an attack chicken. So yeah, I can understand why Officer Pantshitter would be scared.
That’s why I need more context. Is the guy known for being violent? What is the power company wanting? What is the nature of their dealing in the past? How about the cops? We dont know anything about those individuals nature?
It may be one of those ‘they are all assholes’ stories.
I don’t remember ever hearing about that salt water heat sink trick before.
When the tornado came threw earlier this year, we were able to buy dry ice right after it happened from an ice cream store and get it into the chest freezer. Kept that safe through the power outage. By the next day, they were all out of dry ice.
Yeah not with salt…good tip. We do have some good ole kill Gaia IC gennies we can power our fridge but great tip!
Interesting, but we don’t have enough room in our freezer for a big enough container to make any difference.
Good to hear you are ok. Some ask why people stay in hurricane zones. But I have been to your neck of the woods many times. Our family used to vacation on Treasure Island every year, and we’d go to Clearwater, Madeira Beach, all those places. I love it there and I’d even thought of moving there at one time.
Prices are probably coming down, but the insurance will make up for it
From ded thred, sure let pro life protesters be arrested. By local police for local no trespassing ordinances. Unless it’s a federal facility*, the feds shouldn’t be charging anyone for blocking access.
*the feds should call 911 and report it as a local crime just like any other property manager. The FPS “police” should have all the power of private security guards. On federal property only. Fucksticks should not have police badging on their cars or uniforms.
Steven A Smith talking about black men voting for Kamala.
This has to be a deep fake, right?
https://x.com/NowPammsy/status/1846779996095787234?s=19
As real as this?
https://x.com/PapiTrumpo/status/1846684133298159702
That one was funny
Bill’s little comment at the end . . . .*chef’s kiss*
STEVE SMITH NOT TALK TO BLACK MEN VOTING KAMALA. NOT BELIEVE IN KAMALA. OR VOTING. ALSO NO BLACK MEN IN CASCADIA.
Still best “About the author”. You can almost taste the Florida.
It’s a sandy, citrusy, with a touch of skunky beer.
That’s not beer….
Good article.
This is so important. I tell people all the time, if you’re thinking of ‘bugging out’ for some reason, ask yourself three questions:
1.) Do I have a place to go?
2.) Can I get there quickly enough to make a difference?
3.) Most importantly, am I sure that my circumstances will be materially better there, rather than here?
Don’t assume that the locals in/around your temporary shelter site are going to welcome you with open arms, and this includes family and friends – Katrina, illegal immigrant dumping, and boomeranging college kids have killed that trope for at least another generation. If you bug out, wherever you bug out too, you’d better be able to support yourself in the near term.
Very fair points. If it’s a fire, though, I’m getting the fuck out.
Alright, the Hamas propaganda is just comedy now:
https://x.com/HamasAtrocities/status/1845187680445006060
lulz
Uh-huh.
This week they were claiming the IDF was shooting kids in the head. The x-rays they put up as proof were the same – no entry or exit wounds, no malformation of the bullet. They just had kids lay on a bullet and took an x-ray.
I would guess a full metal jacket would penetrate intact. The reason we use expanding bullets of deer, etc. Military uses FMJ.
And maybe even exit intact. I’ve seen videos on dummy skulls taking 5.56 FMJ shots, and the exit wound, well, it would be visible on an X-ray.
It depends on exactly what bullet type you’re using, but typical military FMJ tends to yaw and break up within a few inches once it hits something solid.
I would be safe to assume…wise even…that anything and everything they say is a bald faced lie.
Chin up, Brett- soon you’ll have nothing to worry about
Half of the world’s population already faces water scarcity and that proportion is growing too, according to the Global Commission on the Economics of Water, which is funded by the Dutch government and facilitated by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development — a group of the world’s richest economies.
Rain will be a thing of the past. Florida will be high and dry.
High and Dry was definitely their best.
First track is a banger, even after all these years.
Yep, kick ass album. I think Another Hit And Run is my fav. Lots of good stuff there to pick from though.
I just listened to the entire thing. Not a bad song on the whole record. Clearly their -ahem- high water mark.
Q: What has nine arms and sucks?
A novempus?
TIL…
But yeah, that too.
Great meme on Kamala’s interview meltdown.
https://x.com/Apoctoz/status/1846760182291824843
Oh, bravo!
from bad to worse?
Vice President Harris ventured into the lion’s den Wednesday to deliver a message that many Americans — including anxious Democrats — have been waiting to hear:
“My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency,” Harris told Fox News’ Bret Baier.
If you thought Bidenomics sucked, hold on to your hats.
“I am different from Biden because I will use State force to get what I want and I have a record of doing so”
<>
But it also won’t be different. Just more joyful.
Weird way to say “fucked”.
So why did you tell the View you wouldn’t change anything?
In the highest-risk interview of her campaign, Harris took the rare step of distancing herself from the unpopular, aging president she serves — touting a “new generation of leadership” to millions of skeptical Fox News viewers.
The “rare step” of throwing a perceived political liability to the wolves? Much brave.
As for that “new generation, turn the page” nonsense; does she expect people to believe she was kidnapped by joe Biden in 2020 and kept incommunicado in the White House rape catacombs until a few weeks ago?
Thanks for the report, Brett!
We’ve been joking with the neighbors that hurricanes are God’s way of telling you its time to start that home repair project you’ve been putting off.
I suspect that’s true across the spectrum of Gaia fuckery.
We live in a 65 year old concrete block house.
Does this mean your walls are concrete block all the way up? How do you side it?
Glad you guys came through relatively unscathed. My peeps in the Ft. Meyers/Naples area apparently had little damage, too.
Very little stick built stuff down here. Mostly concrete block walls, some poured walls. Roofs are wood truss, very low pitch, members shockingly far apart.
Built to handle wind. And to make hanging curtains a pain in the ass.
Interesting, thanks. I’ve been down there many times but never paid much attention.
Yes. All the way up. I have some siding that moved, I’l go check. Inside they did 1/2” wood strips with framing nails gunned in for the all-board. I’d assume they did something similar on the outside.
For reasons that defy logic, I went to look at the political polling.
Harris is marginally up nationally. Seems dubious to me.
So I go look.
She is up 25% in California and 15% in NY. That accounts for the entirety of her lead.
Trump leads almost everywhere else. Except the leftist middlewest
Super weird to me that California and NY would be that far out of touch with the rest of the country.
I mean, it is clear that California politics is corrupt and rigged, but this is polling. And Trump is doing really well with Hispanic voters. Maybe Asians hate him?
Anyway, nate silver says Kamala is winning the presidential race right now, while RCP says it is Trump rather bigly.
Nate Silver will keep things close ever since 2016 with his 70% chance of Clinton winning.
It’s culture too, in those places. Read state reddits and the reflexive hate for Trumpers and right wingers is dripping. Even the ones complaining about the effects of their preferred policies cannot make the self reflection that it’s not just the execution but the entire premise at fault.
Not really. Anyone right of Marx who had the ability to leave got out of California and New York. Meanwhile, people who lean hard left moved there. They are becoming solid blue blocs. The trend will accelerate itself like runaway transistor burnout.
“Super weird to me that California and NY would be that far out of touch with the rest of the country.”
Big urban centers relative to the rest of the state, would be my guess. Also, ground zero for the narrative propaganda machine.
Both states are also highly educated. AKA brainwashed.
Grilled on how she could represent a “new way forward” while serving as Biden’s VP, Harris argued that the election is about “turning the page from the last decade” of Donald Trump’s divisive and “exhausting” rhetoric.
They have completely abstained from divisive rhetoric and extended a warm hand of friendship and compromise at every opportunity. She wants nothing more than to bring the nation together in harmonious joy.
Is red her color? Her fiery speech against white supremacists is going to be brat.
Brat? Nah, it will be her wurst.
Everything she said was progjection of her and her side’s efforts. And own goals like when she said an administration is responsible for everything that happens during it (trying to make Trump supporting transgender surgeries if it potentially could occur, as if it were the same as her full throated support of it). Whoosh.
So, she wouldn’t do anything different than Biden, but she’s going to make a break from Biden’s admin, but “turning the page” means finally putting Trump down like a rabid animal?
I give up. I’m just glad half the electorate can follow these rhetorical nuances to cast the correct vote in a few weeks.
Does this mean your walls are concrete block all the way up? How do you side it?
Stucco would be my guess. Preferably pink.
How will you notice the flamingo yard ornaments?
A nice light blue.
Hey now! That’s our thing!
Hello John Cougar Mellencamp?
I dislike that song.
“She wants nothing more than to bring the nation together in harmonious joy”
by doling out cash to new home buyers/black entrepreneurs.
Well, I’m convinced, count me in.
Client hired me to edit book and help him publish it. Done and done.
Client comes back with a re-edit to repeat process. It’s a little better. Done.
Client comes back a THIRD time with the same book with some zippier dialogue, an intro that should be its own book, and substantially worse than #2. I finally told him to quit tinkering with it for publication because he made it worse. Now he’s mad.
Good for you. The truth hurts and it’s a rare person who appreciates it.
In my youth I spent a decade taking art lessons from a professional painter in the back of an art store. The hardest thing to learn was when to keep working on a painting, and when to quit. Overworking a painting will ruin it.
Yeah, that’s one of very few downsides of self-publishing. You’re NEVER finished. I’m STILL finding typos in a 15yo book.
Looking for an editor or a co-author?
No, just an editor, but I don’t think he’s gotten many sales or reviews, so he wants SOMEONE to tell him they liked it.
I tinker with my stuff all the time and I even put out a re-edit once, but I’m not going to publish my tinkerings.
Now, mind you, this has been going on for 10 years.
That would be sound advice to anyone. If I wait a couple of weeks and look at anything I wrote that I think was a home run it reads like crap. I have to re-do it. Wait two weeks…crap again. So on, ad infinitum.
She is up 25% in California and 15% in NY. That accounts for the entirety of her lead.
And that is why the electoral college must be done away with.
correct
The yokels in Iowa must submit to the wisdom of the big blue states.
I’ve been in meetings, so I don’t know if this was covered earlier.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/high-likelihood-hamas-leader-oct-7-mastermind-yahya-sinwar-killed-by-troops-in-gaza/
Hamas leader and Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar killed by IDF troops in Gaza
+ 1 ray of sunshine
“Part of Sinwar’s finger was removed for expedited testing as the location was booby-trapped.”
Shame they just cut off a finger, instead of . . . something else.
I don’t think that you can get prints off a foreskin…
I did not really see an alligator swimming up our street
And you’re in Florida?
Gators are too lazy to walk up the hill. They’re kind of like robots. A decent hill reduces the threat of being attacked by 85%.
A decent hill
And you’re in Florida?
Good that you folks got through the storm OK.
Newsom knows price gouging. This will surely help bring prices down.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/fox-news-politics/california-oil-refinery-announces-closure-after-newsom-signs-new-law
“I’m from the government and I’m here to help…”
Those lucky Californians! They will have the honor of double digit gas prices before anyone else in the country!
Don’t the refineries in CA also supply gas to states that signed onto CA’s car emissions standards? Seems like this will screw up life for a lot of states.
They just need to transition to EV’s faster. Good thing they’re on the good side of someone who manufactures those. Oh wait.
It will screw up all states. That lost capacity has to be made up somewhere unless Californians just go without.
That is the ultimate goal.
It’s more of a plateau than a spike.
It’s so bad that the AZ governor is on the record as objecting to it, since, unfortunately, AZ gets its gas from CA refineries.
How mandating high inventory for refineries is going to alleviate shortages is an exercise for the reader, I suppose. Seems like the retail supply is always what’s not kept in inventory, so that mandatory high inventory won’t be available to smooth out a shortage, will it?
https://www.wsaw.com/2024/10/17/ppg-will-lay-off-1800-employees-paints-coatings-maker-aims-cut-costs/
#Bidenomics
Ruh roh. Housing crash incoming.
We had a little water get in through a vent roof cap, and no power for 4-5 days.
I also received a few offers of shelter. I wish I had articulated my reasons for not going but just opted for a ‘thanks, no thanks.’
“Go ‘way. Batin’.”
I’m about as far inland as one can be in Florida, so surge is never an issue. Wind damage from Helene and Milton combined was less than $100.
The chief danger to my house is the abundance of water oaks on the property. While the trees provide some nice shade in the summer, they’re prone to shedding branches, which then come down like massive darts onto my roof. I can tell you from experience, it gets mighty sporty when it’s raining inside your bedroom because a branch has just knocked a softball-sized hole through the shingles and plywood.
I finally sorted that out by putting a metal roof on the house when it was time to replace the shingles. Expensive, but worth every penny.
Plus the insurance man doesn’t hassle you about your shingles.
It will screw up all states. That lost capacity has to be made up somewhere unless Californians just go without.
Drilling/production isn’t the problem. Refining capacity is.
But I’m sure there are dozens of brave souls eager to snap up a going-concern refinery in California.
It’s a golden chance to convince states together get gas from the South, instead of California. I smell an opportunity. There is no shortage of decent places to build (hurricane resistant) refineries.
Together= to get their.
Stupid speech to text hates my accent.
I got my new wheels & tires mounted.
🙂
Which car? The Jeep?
GTI.
https://www.amazon.com/photos/shared/epYIxNT4QUaGDsR_QiyYlw.lheS0McP_H8SlqfBfE3Y2i
I got my new wheels & tires mounted.
Nice. Does that mean it’s back on the road?
Yup. A couple weeks now.
This is good.