Saturday evening, everything’s on fire Links

by | Jan 11, 2025 | Daily Links | 159 comments

Okay, I’ve been glued to the news for the last three days over the LA fires. And I have some things to say. There’s a laundry list of complaints about California and LA over its handling of this tragedy, but in all honesty, they have little do with this incident. They’re legitimate issues, but have little bearing on current events. Understanding wildland fires and how they impact communities requires an understanding of the interplay between fuel, weather and topography. The Palisades fire put all three of those elements in perfect alignment, and no preparation in the world would have resulted in a different initial outcome.*

In addition, people evacuating abandoned their vehicles in the road, and took their keys with them. That created a significant delay in the response.

Links:

Let’s start here. A good discussion on lack of preparation at the community level leading up to the Palisades fire. The pictures I saw early on showed a lack of brush clearing around structures to a dangerous level. In addition, the entire state of California should be ripped up one side and down the other for not mitigating wildland fuel loads. The fire comes from the wildland environment, and continues to spread through embers from burning buildings into the community. Less fire coming from that environment means better conditions for structure protection. *This is one area where my above comment comes with a caveat.

This is dumb. This is a distraction. This is not why the Palisades burned to the ground, and there were no water issues in other areas. Reservoirs of treated drinking water need to be covered. When would you drain the reservoir and do that work? January to April. This is a red herring.

This was a fire that started at the top of a ravine, and had an 80mph wind on it. Based on fire calculations, the rate of spread was 8mph. No amount of water was going to stop, or slow that fire. If you know what the Venturi effect is, that’s what happened at the top of the ravine. The water that was utilized was a futile attempt to put out burning structures. Start a nice, big campfire and put your leaf blower on it. Now stand ten feet down wind and try to put that fire out with a garden hose. They flowed 3 million gallons of water over 15 hours to no avail. By the time the tanks were dry, Palisades was done. And refill rates on those tanks would have in no way kept up with demand. Where a small difference could have been made was those houses that burned a day, or two later. But resources had also been diverted to the active areas on the flanks, and to other fires. It’s a harsh reality, but once everyone was out of harms way, the Palisades were written off.

Manpower issues. It’s a little oxymoronic, but if this fire had occurred during fire season, it would have been a much more severe fire, but there would be substantially more resources on hand to fight it.

CalFire sends their seasonal firefighters home and shuts a bunch of fire stations when the season is over. Most of the open stations are running two person crews. I consider Los Angeles County Fire to be exceptionally competent in handling the complex wildfire scenario in the area. But their seasonals are also not on duty. And keeping staffing at wildfire season levels year round is ridiculously expensive. The state and regional mutual aid system did, and is working exactly as it’s supposed to. It’s actually a pretty amazing endeavor. California has its own robust mutual aid system, and those resources coming from outside the state is handled by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) located here in Boise.

Lack of air resources. Wildland fires are an airshow. A handline is good for flame lengths up to ten feet. Standard operating procedure is you cool the line with air drops, and send in ground crews to mop up and cut line. After that, you have to go indirect and utilize removal of fuel utilizing mechanical means like dozers, and firing operations. And firing operations are useless in these conditions. Aircraft are grounded if the wind speed is over 40mph. Even though they now have night capabilities, they were unavailable. On top of that, the majority of air resources are private contractors, that are all out of contract, because it’s winter. They’re all placing HVAC units on buildings this time of year.

Some cleanup details:

Containment is a lagging indicator. It has little bearing on the progress of the fight. Containment occurs when there’s a physical line around the fire. That’s cutting line with crews and dozers, and tying it into things like roads and such. If the fire is completely out, it will not be declared 100% contained until there is a line completely around it. And Incident Commanders under-report progress for reasons.

Utilizing the ocean as a water source is a non starter. Unless you have a pump system already in place, it’s not going to happen, and those pump systems are hideously expensive to install and maintain. You’re also not going to back a 40,000lb vehicle onto the beach and start a drafting operation. As for placing it on a pier, maximum lift at draft is 20′. And if you pump sea water into the municipal water system you’ll have water, but you have a long term clean up headache. Seawater is very unkind to brass fittings. Had they been able to draft from the ocean, it would have required a relay system, with an engine placed at least every 1,000′. One 5″ supply line would have done little.

There’s a lot more to say, but then we’re starting to dive into the weeds. I just wanted to give an overview of my perspective. This was a natural disaster with Mother Nature fully in charge. Once the winds died down, things happened very quickly. California has significant issues with preparation for wildland fires, but there’s little to nothing that could have prevented this tragedy. And if you live in the urban interface, or can be impacted by it, clean up your property to specs and have a go bag.

*Pray for LA. Brentwood is on fire, and the Santa Ana’s are predicted to return. At least they now have resources in place.*

Peace out, Glibbies.

About The Author

Spudalicious

Spudalicious

Survey says I’m a Paleolibertarian bitches. That means I eat “L”ibertarians for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Soave tastes a little fruity. Wait a minute, that doesn’t sound quite right…

159 Comments

  1. juris imprudent

    a lack of brush clearing

    Habitat for some tick no doubt and by god, California will not allow any species to be inconvenienced by common sense.

    • Stinky Wizzleteats

      Something rells me that plucky lady will land on her feet if she doesn’t end up in prison for fraud.

    • Gender Traitor

      “Tragedy” is in the eye of the beholder. 🙄

  2. juris imprudent

    This fire burned around Cal State San Bernardino when I was attending there. Not the upscale homes destroyed as in the Palisades, but just as comprehensive and fast in the destruction.

    • juris imprudent

      Lived in San Diego at this time too. I was actually deer hunting NE (upwind) of the fires and had to come back through to get home.

      Anyone says this is unprecedented deserves to be slapped upside the head, really hard.

  3. KK, Plump & Unfiltered

    Now that I live up in the mountains, I’m slightly more worried about fires. The eastern TN fires were not far from here. And I’ve noticed some people tend not to go along with burn bans. There was a burn ban in place when I was in Cherokee in 2023, and there were already fires in the area, yet people there for the weekend were going to have their campfires, come hell (literally) or high water.

    • Tundra

      We had a pretty fucked up fire here three years ago. 1,000 suburban houses gone.

      Forgive me for forgetting who, but one of You People turned me on to this:

      https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=19622

      Fires are complicated.

      • Fourscore

        I always want to see some heavy snow and/or rain in March/April and have the under story wet until it greens up.

  4. mexican sharpshooter

    Very informative Spud. Finally someone who knows what the hell they are talking about.

    • The Hyperbole

      Yes, Nice to hear an informed take instead of either “Climate Change!!!” or “Democrats!!!”

      • mexican sharpshooter

        You forgot to mention (((Space Lasers))).

      • DEG

        Yes, this is a good write-up.

        I’ve sent it to some folks I know.

      • Stinky Wizzleteats

        It’s Demonrats…

    • The Bearded Hobbit

      I am thankful that the rictus picture is finally off the top of the main page.

      “Living to 100; looks good on paper. . .” — some comedian

    • Fourscore

      My new word for the day. Now to try to wiggle it into a conversation

  5. The Bearded Hobbit

    Thanks for the insight, Spud

  6. mexican sharpshooter

    Pray for LA. Brentwood is on fire

    Take that OJ!

    Okay OJ is dead but that’s the extent of my Brentwood knowledge.

  7. DEG

    And if you pump sea water into the municipal water system you’ll have water, but you have a long term clean up headache.

    Paul Krugman smiles.

    • Sensei

      I remember early on with the 3/11 earthquake and the news saying Japan had reached out to the U.S. about heavy water for Fukushima. Typical MSM bullshit disaster journalism.

      In reality the guy in charge realizing the epic disaster he got handed did the most non Japanese thing I can think of and broke protocol and started pumping sea water in the reactor without all sign offs. He knew this would permanently kill the thing, but did it anyhow.

      He is viewed as a hero. He also died of cancer, no idea if related….

  8. dbleagle

    It is interesting to see Pyne is still among those consuming oxygen, Thirty-five years ago when I studied wildfires in graduate school his book was our text. He knows his stuff.

    From time on the fire line, and time managing wildlands and being part of joint wildfire response, I tip my hat to Spud for this discussion. Like Lahaina, these fires were inevitable. The biggest botches were in the time prior and not so much (from what we know to date) during the actual response.

    This is not to say Powerline was wrong today with the meme of the non-functioning, rainbow flag painted, fire hydrant in front of burning buildings. But that is part of the before F ups.

    • Spudalicious

      Pyne is a guru who speaks truth. It’s a shame more agencies don’t listen to him.

    • juris imprudent

      I actually got the snow-blower out even though it was less than 2 inches that fell, but it did drift a bit deeper. Also did the neighbor widow’s drive.

      • R C Dean

        “Also did the neighbor widow’s drive.”

        As is right and proper.

      • slumbrew

        I did the sidewalk and steps of the widower next door.

        Slight chance he’ll kick my ass for that but I know his kids appreciate it.

        I will continue to let him put away my garbage cans every week (as requested by his daughter- “makes him feel useful”)

      • R C Dean

        “I had the snowblower running anyway.”

      • Fourscore

        JI/Slumbrew, if you guys need to practice my driveway is available as a training vehicle.

    • KK, Plump & Unfiltered

      I’ve been pre-gaming

    • KK, Plump & Unfiltered

      9:20 and nobody. Should I wait around or give up?

      • Evan from Evansville

        Eeek. I’m sorry it looks like that won’t work out for ya. *crosses fingers still*

        I’d love to rap with y’all, but can’t without drawing far too much attention and eyes on me over here. *’dagnabbit!’*

      • Old Man With Candy

        Sorry, I’ve been watching a slaughter.

  9. SarumanTheGreat

    Very good and succinct explanation of why, when, how, etc. Far better than anything else I’ve seen online. Thank you.

    The biggest F-up of course is letting people build in the chaparral; second, not requiring the the structures to be fireproof fortresses. But then SF has allowed development on and around the San Andreas despite the message sent in 1906 so it’s not just SoCal that’s oblivious to Mother Nature.

    • juris imprudent

      How many homes get rebuilt every couple of years along the Mississippi-Ohio riverbanks?

      • rhywun

        Or the Florida coast.

      • R C Dean

        Federally subsidized flood insurance is the debil. It used to be that homes in destruction-sooner-or-later zones were cheap (in every sense). But now that you can actually cycle the system to build you a bigger and better home every time it gets wrecked, well, you get more of what you reward.

      • SarumanTheGreat

        I believe after the Flood of 1993 the Feds finally said ‘F-it’ and stopped shoveling money at people abusing Federal flood insurance. Moved many to high ground. The Flood of 1994 was almost as bad, but there was little property damage or loss of life ’cause of the actions the previous year.

        ‘Course most were poor folks. Hatteras, Cape May, and Sea Isle are massive disasters waiting to happen, not to mention most of Florida, but too many living there have money, so no go.

    • Trigger Hippie

      ‘The biggest F-up of course is letting people build in the chaparral’

      Libertarian nitpick: People should be allowed to build wherever they want to and suffer the possible consequences without public assistance and blustered with a rational Insurance company.

  10. Suthenboy

    This was is not a natural disaster…or should be one.
    This is the legacy of the ’60s and ’70s tree huggers and commies plain and simple. Want to go back in time and kill someone to make the world a better place? Try Jim Fucking Jones and all of the pols he put into office…and those pols successors. Then there is this evil: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

    There is no reason that the infrastructure is not there and no excuse for the conditions to exist for this except by design. How many reservoirs have Californians been paying for for the last ten years that do not exist? Joe’s electric charging stations come to mind.

    • juris imprudent

      California has an eco-system pre-dating all human residence that is in part fire driven. The Santa Ana wind pattern is recurring. Fire is a natural part of California – not that man has been smart at all about that (not from the early days, the golden era, or the current degeneracy).

      • Suthenboy

        I am aware of it as a natural occurrence. The reason it is happening now the way it is and where it is is the result of state policies and corruption. There is no excuse for that.

      • juris imprudent

        Also sheer numbers – too many fucking people live in a place that lacks the local resources to support them, water foremost.

  11. slumbrew

    Thanks very much for this, Spud.

    Always good to hear from professionals with no particular axe to grind.

      • rhywun

        Thirded.

        I did suspect a lot of bafflegab going on, particularly around budgets and fire hyrants.

      • Fourscore

        But still fun to see the people turning against the local politicians.

      • R C Dean

        Yeah, if you want to take credit for jumping in front of the parade, you get to be run over of the out-of-control semi, too.

    • R C Dean

      I second slumbrew’s thanks. I’m considering that my loathing for the people in charge in CA may have biased my reaction to this.

      • slumbrew

        I’m with you – my disdain made me assumed they were actively screwing up.

        But they have been passively screwing up until now by not doing the needed mitigation of brush and fuel in the forests.

    • Galt1138

      Agreed.

      I haven’t been to the site in a while and another Glib linked to this in a Discord.

      We know some past wildfires were caused by arson (and some from homeless camp fires, like the one near Bel Air/Getty Center/Beverly Hills several years ago).

      The Santa Ana winds also result in downed power lines (this issue made worse by environmental regulations preventing power companies from doing proper maintenance of clearing brush and overgrowth near said lines).

      I do have question for Spud.

      Given the large number of fires the past week, what are the chances they were all caused by power lines?

      Olivas
      Freddy
      King
      Gulch
      Tamarack
      Bert
      Divide
      Sunswept
      Emma
      Clara
      Viewline
      Sunset
      Archer
      Lidia
      Foothill
      Kenneth

      Then much further east and south LA:

      Taft (near Santa Ana)
      Cantu (between Corona and Fontana)
      Wood (near Mead Valley)

  12. Raven Nation

    What’s the word on placing Glib articles on social media?

    • KK, Plump & Unfiltered

      Personally, I would encourage it. This is a publicly-available website, after all.

      • UnCivilServant

        Wait? Anyone can see our content?

      • The Last American Hero

        Yes, but like a flasher in Central Park, nobody wants to see it.

      • Ted S.

        The other nun couldn’t reach that far.

  13. Suthenboy

    Dear God. Someone put a camera in front of Maxine Waters. Why would anyone do that?

  14. R C Dean

    “This is dumb. This is a distraction.”

    Apparently, the reservoir has been empty since at least 2022. Your analysis of how it wouldn’t have made any difference anyway is noted, though.

    “I consider Los Angeles County Fire to be exceptionally competent in handling the complex wildfire scenario in the area.”

    Does that account for current leadership?

    “resources coming from outside the state is handled by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) located here in Boise.”

    I read that trucks coming from out of state had to stop in Sacramento and wait, for at least a day, for permits to be issued.

    Still, interesting analysis. I had read people claiming there wasn’t anything anyone could have done, but I took it as the usual asscovering by the usual suspects. I still have a hard time saying the Governor, Mayor, and LAFD leadership shouldn’t be criticized for this catastrophe, but I gotta say, I’m more open minded about it it now.

    • Spudalicious

      Vehicles from Oregon had to stop for inspection. They have a reputation.

    • Gustave Lytton

      Not permits. Stop in Sacramento was apparently due to CalFire doing a safety check of equipment (and probably redcards,etc). Nearly 400 firefighters from the state, including local crews, are there now and have been working since Friday.

  15. Tundra

    My great grandparents had a ranch in Contra Costa. I remember brush clearing being a regular thing. And the house was made of shit that doesn’t burn easily, including a slate roof. And they were actually in a pretty lush area.

    Thanks, Spud. Good info.

    • Spudalicious

      Cool. I spent my career in Contra Costa County.

      • Tundra

        Yeah, which town? They were in Antioch before it went to hell.

      • Spudalicious

        I bought my first house in Antioch in ’83. I spent ambulance time in Richmond, Pittsburg and then the San Ramon Valley. I spent my fire career in the valley. I lived most of that time in Walnut Creek and Pleasant Hill.

    • JaimeRoberto (carnitas/spicy salsa)

      I grew up in Contra Costa County. We had to clear brush every year. And Antioch was always hell. It’s just a different level now.

  16. Ted S.

    As of right now this hasn’t been removed by the author of the tweet.

    (If it does get removed, it’s been saved for posterity here.)

    • R C Dean

      Probably not intentional.

      Probably.

    • SarumanTheGreat

      As I recall, there was a plot in the 1980’s by Algerians to take down the Eiffel Tower.

  17. rhywun

    So after last week’s Frozen Salmon Disappointment tonight I had a fresh-ish steak with the tapenade someone recommended.

    Sublime.

    • slumbrew

      I’ll eat a shoe with enough tapenade on it.

      Black or green?

      • rhywun

        Black or green?

        Yes.

    • Plinker762

      Frozen fish, was it from Mrs Paul?

      • rhywun

        No, Wegmans. Bulk filets, hanging out in the freezer for a year or so.

  18. Trigger Hippie

    “Even when they do something right, they do something wrong.”

    -Jim Nantz

    …Oh, Chargers.

    /bemused Chiefs fan.

    • Trigger Hippie

      (burp)

      …Maybe that wasn’t Jim Nantz…point being…something? Oh, yeah! The Chargers are now and have always been Paper Tigers and Herbert is Rivers 2.0

    • R C Dean

      Well, it looks like the Steelers have decided they’re just tired of playing football this season. They are just getting abused by the Ravens.

      • Trigger Hippie

        Hell, they gave up over a month ago. Tomlin gets his winning season, expectations where over exceeded by a slight fraction, life proceeds as usual…Tomlin: The Marty Schottenheimer who once had a real quarterback.

        P.S. Glad to hear you retired. Enjoy your Golden Years, MeglalMonicle.

      • Trigger Hippie

        …da fuk is that extra l doing in there…

      • rhywun

        Ugh. Glad I can’t watch.

        (Only a mild preference for the Stillers over the other team but still.)

      • Brochettaward

        Roethlisberger and Cowher’s defense carried this mediocre fuck to a Super Bowl win and another appearance. He’s still coasting off that a decade and a half later.

      • slumbrew

        I was waiting for a Tomlin rant from you tonight; that was milder than expected.

        It’s wild that he still has that job.

      • Brochettaward

        We live in a world where Bill Belichick can be fired after a few bad seasons, but in which you can’t even suggest that shit in the national media.

        Some people laughably claim the Tomlin-love isn’t about race.

        He’s black Mike McCarthy with a defensive slant. Aaron Rodgers was a better fantasy QB (because he had an offensive minded head coach). Roethlisberger was a fat rapist. So one guy got shit all over when his team underachieved while the other had excuses heaped on him.

        It’s completely Tomlin’s team from top to bottom now. And it shows. 300 fucking rushing yards allowed. Ravens could have hung 50 on them if they wanted to. Average of about 40 PPG allowed in last 6 playoff losses for the bug-eyed fuck who calls his own defense.

        That rant-y enough for you?

  19. Spudalicious

    Okay, there is something that I should have mentioned that has nothing to do with the fire. Please don’t conflate LAFD with LA County, there are two completely different agencies. The gal standing next to Bass is LAFD, County Fire will be the Incident Commander. I can guarantee that there’s at least one National Type One incident management team on scene.

    • R C Dean

      Thanks for that.

      As I read your take, given the lack of brush control (and possibly the overbuilding), once this got started none of the rest of what looks like colossal mismanagement and incompetence actually matters? With a strong Santa Ana and a spark, it was all going to burn no matter what?

      • Spudalicious

        Once hurricane force winds hit a dense brush field on fire, all you can do is get the fuck out of the way until the winds die down, and do what you can with the exposures.

  20. Trigger Hippie

    /Reads article

    Well done, sir. Puts some perspective into the recent rash of fall guys served up for us.

    Mother Nature is still our mother and can snatch our wigs off when it pleases her.

    Humans-“We demand sacrifices to appease Her!”

    The Powers That Be-“Here’s some powerless pissants for the sacrifice.”

    …moving on…

    • Evan from Evansville

      Word-up, on all of this. Thanks, Spud. Great to see you ’round again, Trigger, as well!

      Gaia should only be female for Bad Things. Good Things are duh, natch, obviously masculine! Ya see progs, the nasty, ‘evil’ things that cunt does simply shows off her feminine power! Nature’s benevolent side must be epitomized by the male. (We die earlier; are more homeless; more violent; and are overall shitty creatures. Throw us a bone. Gotta have *something* to offset all our ever-so malignant energy. Those cupcakes we tried last time just aren’t doing it, dammit.)

      • Trigger Hippie

        Glad to hear from you too but I must confess…I’m slightly confused by this comment. Is this supposed to be ironic or condescending?

      • Evan from Evansville

        I was also mocking the humans wanting to perform sacrifices to ‘serve’ Mother Nature, adding to their platform, as it were. So I don’t think it’s ironic but I certainly wasn’t trying to condescend.

      • Tundra

        Such a great song.

    • Spudalicious

      I don’t remember that, but it wouldn’t surprise me. We don’t like a lot of rules here.

  21. groat scotum

    In my quest to rediscover the journalist blogger expat I half-remember from ten years ago, I appealed to ChatGPT.

    I believe you might be referring to Christopher Hitchens, who was known for his sharp wit and conservative leanings, although he lived in various locations, including Washington, D.C., rather than Baja California. He was an expatriate writer who lived in various places during his retirement and was known for his critical and often acerbic commentary.

    However, if you are thinking of another journalist who specifically lived in Baja California and wrote a blog in his later years, I don’t have enough specific details to narrow down the exact person you are referring to. If you can remember more specific details or aspects of the blog, I might be able to help you further.

    I’m not sure LLM AI is going to replace humans any time soon.

    • groat scotum

      It’s a little bit disappointing. I’ve had great interactions with ChatGPT. (I hesitate to call it discussions. It’s like a ping-pong game with a search engine.) But then there are colossal failures like this. Was I supposing it would find the exact author and his blog? Well, no, but I figured it might list some likely culprits!

      Anyway, Microsoft is investing another 80 billion dollars in AI, and I’m going to be drawing data centers for the people with whom they contract for years. I guess that’s nice. There’s a mesa outside Reno being developed as a campus as we speak. Six foot deep footings being etched into the limestone substrata of this hill upon which will soon be erected tens of thousands of pounds of steel to host hundreds of thousands of pounds of equipment for generating and circulating and evacuating the waste heat of a paltry couple thousand pounds (if that?) of silicon to give me disappointing answers to maybe unanswerable questions.

      • rhywun

        We’re gonna need to bigger unicorn to power that shit.

      • groat scotum

        Apparently I’m wrong, chatgpt tells me there’s several tons of silicon in a data center. And why would it lie?

        Many years ago when I was a teenager, there was a video game called Unreal. And there was a modding scene for Unreal (and later Unreal: Tournament) that I loved. And at some point there was a mod team who wanted to make an addon called Legends of Vandora. Vandora is a Na Pali goddess that’s in the lore of this dumb videogame from an awful long time ago. Anyway, I pitched some ideas at them. Vandora is the Nali goddess of lightning, and I thought it was interesting if she became infatuated with the technology of the ships that sometimes crashed into her planet. (She’s blamed for causing the shipwreck, among many others, that causes the player to fetch up on the Na Pali planet.) I thought it’s an interesting idea if she gets enmeshed, and then trapped, instantiated in the technology of the alien ships coming into her consciousness. I’d never played System Shock at that point (still haven’t) but that might have been what I was supposing when I wrote my stupid manuscript.

      • groat scotum

        AND YOU CAN SEE ALL THAT AND MORE IN THE NEXT EXHIBIT: UNREAL 5: The engine used to make essentially all your favorite video games.

        It all started when Cliff Bleszinski (yes, THAT Cliff Bleszinski) created the most-used game development engine (I don’t actually know if Cliff Bleszinski is involved with Unreal anymore, he was the name I associated with it twenty five years ago.)

      • groat scotum

        I’m being simple but her maiden name made me laugh

        Cliff is married to Lauren Bleszinski (née Berggren)

      • Raven Nation

        Also this:

        “ Christopher Hitchens, who was known for his sharp wit and conservative leanings,”

  22. rhywun

    OMG it is going to go above freezing tomorrow. Climate catastrophe is real!

    • groat scotum

      I had this ludicrous idea (and I have to remind you, this was in 2003-4) that this could be played co-op with the coop players choosing different narratives, one siding with Vandora and the other being the human escapee from the Unreal title. I wrote it into my dumb manuscript as a challenge to the modders that it had to be done because they have an obligation to realize these foolhardy conjectures of some dumbass teenager. Hah!

      • groat scotum

        still sfing my comments ten years on and ten years before I knew what a SF is, and honestly I can’t remember why we call it sfing

  23. KSuellington

    Good post, thanks Spud. I’ve been pretty livid this week with what I considered not necessarily prevaentable, but something that should have been way less a catastrophe than it has been. What do you think of this post by Schellenberger? It hits the notes that I am biased about, I absolutely detest Newsom and woke bullshit, so I found it spot on. Even though he is more lefty than I am, I’d far prefer him than the Dems we are stuck with now.

    https://x.com/shellenberger/status/1877757377597862370

    • Spudalicious

      “On that day, Newsom and Bass should have called out the National Guard. They should have had planes and helicopters circling over Los Angeles spotting fires and putting them out immediately upon detecting them. They should have issued emergency warnings to residents. And they should have used various methods to spray water, including mobile sprinkler units alongside normal firefighter hoses, to wet down vulnerable areas.”

      This is exactly why I felt moved to write this post. He was doing pretty good until he turned into a retard.

      • rhywun

        Yeah, I don’t think this is a topic I would even attempt to bullshit my way through. Those sentences sound dumb even to me.

      • slumbrew

        That sounded dubious to me as well.

      • DrOtto

        At least change mobile sprinkler units into an acronym. A MSU sounds like something they should have. Also, “normal firefighter hoses” – as opposed to the firefighters with peyronie’s disease?

  24. slumbrew

    Spud, if you’re still paying attention:

    Any thoughts on the role of the state of power lines in SoCal and their contribution to fires? Or does it not really matter in the grand scheme and they’d still have issues even if the poles were all upgraded to steel or buried in conduits?

    • Spudalicious

      The problem with power lines is that they slap together in high winds. The really big main transmission lines have plenty of spacing, but when you get into tighter spaces, that becomes difficult. I’m not an expert in this area, but there are limitations to underground lines, depending on where you are.

      The primary answer is for the power companies to quit shitting on maintenance and fuel mitigation, because it costs too much money. Just turning off the power when the wind blows isn’t acceptable. And the state needs to make that desirable, not just started whaling away with a stick.

  25. JaimeRoberto (carnitas/spicy salsa)

    I’ve probably mentioned this a dozen times before, but my brother’s brother-in-law had a brush clearing business in CA, but gave up due to the ever changing regulations that forced him to constantly upgrade his equipment. Maybe CA should think about being less hostile to business.

    As for the reservoir, it has been empty since at least April. How long does it take to repair it?

    • Stinky Wizzleteats

      “Maybe CA should think about being less hostile to business.”

      You capitalist pig.

  26. groat scotum

    I’m down to recommending OK GO

    There ain’t much that’s dumber than pinning your hopes on another

    I held out hope for Molly for so many years, but she never saw us the same

    • slumbrew

      I admire their commitment to bananas videos.

    • groat scotum

      Tell you what tho, she wasn’t the wife I wanted most.

      Sleeping with my SIL’s best friend, that was the hottest of the wives I’ve slept with. That was a night to remember.

    • groat scotum

      It’s a terrific tune but the video

  27. groat scotum

    I fingered my friend’s wife’s sister after the wedding reception. I didn’t mean to, but she was begging for it, and who am I to deny?

    The next morning I drove my date back home. She was unenthusiastic about having been stood up in the fingering department. I played this for her on our long, long drive home.

  28. groat scotum

    Unless… god help me, god help us all… don’t show your lady this.

    • groat scotum

      I think this is my favorite of theirs. It’s so sweet. The concept is wonderfully simple and the execution is perfect. And yes your wife will love it to death.

  29. LCDR_Fish

    MS – we won’t name a new Nimitz after Carter because there are no more Nimitz class being built. Besides, he already has a nuclear sub named after him.

  30. LCDR_Fish

    Spud – regarding fire department manning – Will Swaim at California Policy Center mentioned it on this week’s Radio Free California podcast – and he’s talked about it before – the obscene salaries for firefighters down there (not counting overtime) – the result of pubsec union control (as usual) is a big driver too economically. They’ve talked before about guys who do a 48 hour “shift” and spend the rest of the week at their house in Las Vegas, etc….

    High salaries significantly impact the total number of firefighters who could be hired. Similarly, the forecast was clearly known for at least a week in advance and yet the management was not prepared for it on the ground (or the mayor who decided it was perfect timing to go overseas).

    Seawater can be an issue with mixed water systems obviously – but there are still plenty of times when salt water is preferable to no water. Other folks have pointed out before that there is a distinct shortage of fireboats on the west coast compared to NY Harbor and other areas. Purpose-build fireboats (vice tugs, etc) have much higher pressure pumps, etc. Hooking a tanker (ballast pumps) – or even an aircraft carrier or big deck amphib up to shore pumps to prime them would put a lot more water in the system as well. There are options available even if they are not as “friendly” – if you want to weigh the risks.

    • LCDR_Fish

      Just for reference…most firemain systems on ships are brass (fittings at least). And they’re all 100% saltwater. Regular maintenance is part of the job. Magazine sprinklers, engineering spaces, etc. That’s with salt water in them all the time – they get pumped out when you go to fresh water like up the Columbia river – then you have to clean out the living matter that shows up – (my Mk75 76mm gun had a saltwater cooling system – an absolute pain in the ass – should have been built with a filter screen on the inlet, but nope…that was a late modification that not every gun got before the class got decommissioned).

      Again, if the system is maintained, it wouldn’t be necessary to pump the entire system with salt water (control the valve network), but having staging/refilling areas on the waterfront/beach (Malibu, etc) would be an option – primed to full pressure.

  31. LCDR_Fish

    More stating of the obvious:

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-price-controls-have-made-california-wildfire-recovery-harder/

    ….Insurance price is supposed to be correlated with risk. Higher risk, higher price. Living in an area prone to wildfires is a risk for property insurance. Rather than allowing market prices to take account of that risk, California has heavily regulated the insurance industry for decades.

    Proposition 103 is responsible for a lot of California’s insurance regulatory regime. Lars Powell, R. J. Lehmann, and Ian Adams wrote a paper about Prop 103 for the International Center for Law and Economics (ICLE) in 2023. They trace the proposition’s origins to a 1979 California supreme court case that allowed third parties to bring legal action against insurance companies. That decision was a bonanza for trial lawyers, and the proliferation of lawsuits against California insurance companies forced them to raise rates significantly in the 1980s.

    The rate hikes were unpopular and voters approved Prop 103 in 1988 by a 51–49 margin. Prop 103 forced an immediate 20 percent rate cut for car and property insurance sold in California, gave the state government power to approve or deny future rate increases, and gave public-interest groups the right to intervene when insurers request rate increases. The regulatory power would be held by the state insurance commissioner, which Prop 103 turned into an elected office.

    ….

    One of those things that has improved since 1988 is statistical modeling of wildfire risk. Because that technology basically did not exist in 1988, it is not included in California’s insurance regulatory regime. California’s insurance authorities have in the past few years begun to incorporate some aspects of wildfire catastrophe modeling, but it is still not allowed to be used as justification for rate-hike requests. “This has essentially meant that California—a state that has long prided itself as being on the leading edge when it comes to its response to climate change—is effectively telling insurers to ignore the science,” the paper says.

    After decades of strict price controls, the average price of insurance in California is well below the market rate. California’s rate suppression, the difference between the fair actuarial rate and the rate allowed by regulators, is 29 percent for homeowners insurance, the highest of any state. As economist Brian Albrecht put it, California “forces the biggest gap between rates and risk in the nation.”

    “Oh, those greedy insurance companies are made of money, they can eat the losses,” some might think. The ICLE paper shows that from 1991 to 2016, California homeowners insurers made total cumulative profits of $10.2 billion. But in 2017 and 2018, they lost a total of $20 billion from wildfires. If an entire industry can lose twice as much money in two years as it made in total the 25 years prior, that’s not going to be sustainable.

    Progressive outlet American Prospect published an article in October about alleged insurance-company profiteering off natural disasters. It gave an example of a homeowner near Eaton Canyon in California whose insurance price went up for fire risk and suggested that this was unfair because “Eaton Canyon last had a wildfire three decades ago.” Eaton Canyon has been on fire since January 7. Insurance companies are far from perfect, but they do know some stuff about risk.

    Many homeowners insurance companies have left the California market. They have refused to issue new policies and refused to renew existing ones. If the only price they are allowed to charge is a price that is almost guaranteed to lose money, there’s no point in issuing the policy in the first place.

    The California government has responded to this government-created problem by creating a government-mandated insurer of last resort, called the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) plan. If homeowners can’t get insurance on the private market, they can get it through the FAIR plan. Unsurprisingly, FAIR coverage is high in wildfire-prone areas.

    The San Francisco Chronicle estimates that FAIR could be on the hook for $24 billion worth of property after these wildfires. FAIR is not publicly funded, but if it lacks the money to pay claims — which it almost certainly will after these fires — the state compels private insurance companies to pay for it, which will force higher costs on the rest of their customers and give them yet another reason to get out of the California insurance market.

    • CPRM

      Wisconsin passed some new edicts for home insurance recently, and I got dropped by my insurer. Nice policy work there Lou.

    • Gustave Lytton

      Not just LA. I know a firefighter in the Treasure Valley that lives out of state. Firefighters don’t work 8 hour shifts five days a week.

      • Gustave Lytton

        Crap. Was supposed to be a reply above.

      • LCDR_Fish

        I know. Will had a big segment on it a year or so back…pros pulling in 6 figure salaries and retiring at around 45 or so with 6 figure retirements the rest of their lives. Unsustainable like so many other pubsec problems – bankrupting a lot of municipalities – easy fixes if you have the political will.

    • Suthenboy

      “…stating the obvious…”

      People hate that.

      People do things because they want to do those things. People dont do things because they dont want to do those things.
      California is fully aware of what it takes to mitigate the fire risk. They refuse to do that.
      California is fully aware of what it takes to fight these fires. They refuse to do that.
      California is fully aware of what it takes to keep the state in electricity and water. They refuse to do that.
      California is on fire because that is what California wants.

      They want to live in a high risk area. They dont want to pay for it. They want someone else to pay for it.
      The whole thing is completely absurd.

      • Stinky Wizzleteats

        Well they don’t want this but they do want things that will lead to this. It’s a terminal case of being unable to do a realistic cost-benefit analysis, sure you can get away with it for a while if you’re lucky but if the cards line up it can all come crashing down.

    • Gender Traitor

      Good morning, U, Sean, and Stinky, and good afternoon, Fishy!

      • Gender Traitor

        (and good morning, TH!)

    • Gender Traitor

      Yet another jab to decline at my next check-up. 😒

  32. Trigger Hippie

    No, no. See, what you do here is ask your doctor about a pharmaceutical product to manage the nerve damage…and when that drug causes uncontrollable eye twitching and incontinence you ask your doctor about…

    • rhywun

      “car meetup” – is that what they’re calling it now?

      Nuke it from orbit.

  33. Galt1138

    Damn threaded comments!

    Reposting at the end in a vain attempt Spud will see it.

    Agreed.

    I haven’t been to the site in a while and another Glib linked to this in a Discord.

    We know some past wildfires were caused by arson (and some from homeless camp fires, like the one near Bel Air/Getty Center/Beverly Hills several years ago).

    The Santa Ana winds also result in downed power lines (this issue made worse by environmental regulations preventing power companies from doing proper maintenance of clearing brush and overgrowth near said lines).

    I do have question for Spud.

    Given the large number of fires the past week, what are the chances they were all caused by power lines?

    Olivas
    Freddy
    King
    Gulch
    Tamarack
    Bert
    Divide
    Sunswept
    Emma
    Clara
    Viewline
    Sunset
    Archer
    Lidia
    Foothill
    Kenneth

    Then much further east and south LA:

    Taft (near Santa Ana)
    Cantu (between Corona and Fontana)
    Wood (near Mead Valley)

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