When I come across some interesting tidbit of information that bears thinking about, I’ll scribble it down (if entering into text file – with VI of course – can be thought of as scribbling) in my “Random Thoughts” file. When there are enough little bits (>= 3) and they are well thought out enough, I put together a “Random Thoughts” or “Grinds my Gears” type post. Now even though the second criterion is not really satisfied, I cannot help but respond to a call for content. So, you get poorly articulated and poorly developed “Random Thoughts”. That turned out to not be so random.
The California Fires brought out a few recurring “truisms” that really grind my gears – 1) Fire departments are socialism and we all agree they are good so we all agree with a little bit of socialism 2) For profit insurance can’t handle things like fire insurance.
Topic the 1st: The Fire Department as Socialism
The first point is something I see pretty often – Joe Rogan is a proponent for example, often in the context of fire and police protection. For fire protection, it just doesn’t make sense. For one, private fire protection is alive and well. I’ve lived for the last 20 years with private fire coverage. Pay $x per year for coverage to a private company – I’m not in a rural area by any measure (unfortunately), just outside city limits in a metro area of 10^6 + with 1000’s of neighbors using the same service. Now I don’t have to carry fire protection – the company would still come if my house were on fire, I’d just be charged $4000/hr/truck (I think, haven’t looked recently). Not the first place I’ve lived with private fire either. Shorter – No, we don’t need government to provide fire services; how is paying for fire protection a socialist endeavor?
Now with police protection, it’s a bit more murky – pax my an-cap brethren. To me, the police are a fundamental manifestation of the state, it’s enforcement arm if you will. So to the degree having a government at all is socialist, then I suppose police are socialist. But accepting a limited government is not socialist in any meaningful sense, so to me neither are police. They are just the sharp end of the stick of government coercion.
A lot of it is probably sloppy thinking about what socialism means, the inference being that anything paid for collectively via taxes is socialist even if the ‘service’ is something that we would individually pay for to a greater or lesser degree privately. I suppose the ‘socialist’ aspect is that, in a government system, in theory, everyone in the municipality gets equal protection regardless of how much was paid (which is not at all true, even in in government run fire services). I think that’s the strongest argument for the proposition that fire protection is ‘socialist’. But since robust and functional private fire protection exists, the ‘socialist’ aspect is clearly not a fundamental essence of the provision of fire protection.
Topic the 2nd: Fire Insurance and Profit
Bret Weinstein on Darkhorse (Locals Q&A January 8th 2025) – yes I still listen to them though they increasingly irritate me; perhaps a topic for the next “Random Thoughts/Grinds My Gears” – made a statement that (Paraphrase) “a profit driven market can’t properly price risk to provide fire insurance”. A true WTF moment – what is the basis for that statement? I don’t think he really provided any basis other than as a stated axiom with the current CA situation as … ‘proof’? Much of the following adopted from a response I posted on the local community there.
But the statement is absolute nonsense, especially in the context of the California insurance market. There’s no reason a free open market allowed to properly asses risk and find the right price point can’t do that – the operative words are ‘free’, ‘open’ and ‘allowed’. The California property insurance ‘market’ has very few of those features.
If a market is subject to a high regulatory burden and price controls – that often seem largely in place for talking points so politicians can buy votes and to funnel money to cronies – it cannot function as insurance actuarially. See e.g. Obamacare. For California property insurance including fire, see Proposition 103 (or a 1000 other small cuts – they add up!)
Insurers in California are NOT ALLOWED BY LAW to properly pool and price risk. They cannot provide property insurance against fire at a price point that properly reflects the actual risk in specific locations – not that they are incapable of doing, they are simply not allowed to by the state. Their rates are limited by various bureaucracies to levels that will satisfy constituents (read offload cost onto other people across the state for focused benefits and be perceived as ‘fair’) that, while in theory based on actual risk, never are. Politicians have different incentives than gauging actual fire risk – they gauge electoral risk – contra the people who have to pay it off. Note that property insurers lost something like $15 billion in 2017-2018 in CA; it hard to come by annual profits, but near as I can tell, CA property insurers pull in roughly $1 billion annually in profit – that’s not a sustainable insurance market, especially if the loss years get bigger and more frequent. If profit margins were so high and greedy insurance companies are exploiting the poor Californians, it’s a bit hard to see why they would not be writing new policies and, in some cases, simply withdrawing from the state. That’s a sign that the industry is prevented from actually properly assessing cost and risk. Not that they CAN’T since they clearly know that it’s not favorable/sustainable – but that they are not allowed to by self-serving politicians.
Note that none of this says anything about the failures to adequately prepare for and mitigate against wildfires by state and local authorities. Maybe in an environment where one could see and evaluate true costs, some of those shortcomings could be addressed, but I’m not holding my breath, not when there’s political profit to be made.
Shorter – for profit industry absolutely can price and pool risk in an insurance market, if left to do so properly. The state cannot as their incentive structure is completely at odds with that endeavor. The answer might be TNSTAAFL or you can’t have your cake and eat it too (contra nearly every politically driven economic policy). The answer is not too further restrict and supplant the insurance market in favor to the state that largely created the cluster f**k in the first place, never mind on the basis of the fallacious premise that a “profit driven market can’t properly pool risk” – that’s just nonsense. If I had to translate that statement, it might more properly be – A profit driven market can’t deliver exactly what I want at a price point I want, so that’s a failure of private and market. Not a failure of my expectations and desires when confronted with the reality of wanting to live in these places under the California conditions of governance.
Well, I had 2 or 3 more topics in my bag, several related the WMBriggs substack/logic class, but, as usual, I’m a lot more verbose on the screen than in my head, so I’ll stop with that. And maybe rename from pure “random thoughts” to “Random Thoughts on Fire”. What’s the relevance of the featured image? None really, I just like PUPPIES!!!!
Topic the 1st, hmm…. is socialism an all-encompassing government, or can we say certain things are “socialist”? If I’m at a BBQ and we all chip in for beer, but I’m $5 short and my friend covers me this time, is that socialism?
It’s only real socialism when the government owns everything.
Fuck off, commie.
“You shouldn’t build there because it’s likely your home will get destroyed by a fire or hurricane” is not something people want to hear.
And with other people paying for it, they don’t have to!
We should split the bill evenly even though I had surf and turf and a lot of alcohol.
A lot of it is probably sloppy thinking about what socialism means
I think there is a distinction to be made between socialism and communitarianism, if we think in terms of voluntary vs coerced actions.
Voluntary like Fauci shots?
Or the income tax?
Mr. Meat. Not, so far as I know, related to Mr. Beast.
Diving in.
true WTF moment – what is the basis for that statement?
I dunno about Bret, but that sounds exactly like his brother Eric. Maybe it’s genetic?
Who is Tonio?
I otter think about it.
Speaking of the wonders of Kkkalifornicated insurance… I have seen a few headlines about how people should not be asked for itemized documentation of their claims. Just provide a number, and the insurance company will write you a check. That seems simple and fair.
I do not recall if the persons pushing this were insurance regulators, politicians, or “consumer advocates”.
My receipts were kept with my art collection. Just give me the maximum amount.
That would definitely be consumer advocates/politicians.
Let’s talk about FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance.
OTH, what about aviation hull loss for millionaires?
Dramatic video shows Mötley Crüe singer Vince Neil’s jet crash into parked plane, killing a pilot and injuring rocker’s girlfriend
https://nypost.com/2025/02/11/us-news/video-shows-vince-neils-jet-crashes-into-parked-plane-killing-a-pilot-and-injuring-rockers-girlfriend/
If our current model for police and fire protection was such a wonderful set up, they wouldn’t need unions, and they wouldn’t be threatened by private competition.
In my experience, the defenders of the current way of doing things have hysterics if you bring up the subject of change. I think it was Jordan Peterson from whom I first heard the idea expressed (not a quote, paraphrasing ) the human experience is one of continuity, not change. It’s only in modern times, with the rise of technology, that rapid change has become the norm.
Is it possible that Socialism is a struggle against change, and an attempt at continuity? Maybe. Don’t know. If we look at recent history, it sure does seem to stifle innovation.
No, no, you don’t understand…private competition would only be available to the rich. Once they go there own way, who will protect the poor?
Precious
After three weeks of destruction and despair, this was the Super Bowl many Americans needed.
From the pregame festivities featuring a cornucopia of New Orleans music to the not-so-subtle optics of Kendrick Lamar’s red, white and blue flag of Black men to the ads touting science and diversity to the Philadelphia Eagles burying the Kansas City Chiefs, the entire day felt like a repudiation of the sledgehammer President Donald Trump and his minions are trying to take to this country.
That Trump had a front-row seat for it — until he fled early in the third quarter, that is — made it all the more satisfying.
——-
And Trump no doubt came to the Super Bowl expecting the MAGA-friendly Chiefs to win, allowing him to co-opt the victory as more proof of his “mandate” while giving him license to mock the Eagles for spurning his White House invitation in 2018.
Instead, Trump and everyone watching got a reminder that protest, and progress, are the bedrock of this country. That we are better because of our many colors, races and creeds, our richly layered culture the result of all of our contributions.
Embrace nonsense, in all its soaring majesty.
That is some desperate cope right there.
If a price is unaffordable than it is as if no price exists, so the market cannot price risk.
You’re Fired!
Head of FEMA fired for diverting funds to illegals.
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1889337877894771042
I’ll bet there will be an injunction soon saying Trump doesn’t have the authority.
She doesn’t have the right to access FEMA’s financials just like at Treasury.
They can’t keep doing it for everyone who gets fired.
The shine is already off that tactic.
See people are too stupid to realize everything under Biden was actually awesome and we need to keep it all as it is.
She might be talking to Judge in criminal court.
Trump won’t block immigration arrests in houses of worship. Now these 27 religious groups are suing
Why hasn’t organized crime joined the lawsuit.
Another sacred screed of the left will be tested. Like auditing the DoD, they will have to decide if it’s okay for the State to go after churches…
What to do, what to do
One would think the possible presence of rapists, murderers, pedophiles etc. in one’s church would have an even more chilling effect on one’s freedom to worship.
Not if that is what you worship.
/looks at priests accused of pedophilia
You sure about that?
SANCTUARY! SANCTUARY!
“fish and plankton and sea-greens and protein from the sea”
https://youtu.be/jFWNhhnpT3o
Just looked to see which churches.
They’ll have to come up with some proof that Episcopalian, UCC, or Unitarian churches preach to anyone.
ICE arrests = 1A violation.
Shutting down churches = totes kewl if viruses exist.
Let’s see what lengths they go to, to produce that perfect photo op they’ve imagined.
Let a thousand lawsuits bloom!
“More than two-dozen Christian and Jewish groups representing millions of Americans”
For very weak values of “representing”, perhaps.
Somehow, I’m skeptical that the 1A prohibition on establishment of religion is going to support their argument that churches should have special privileges.
My complaint re fire dept(whether public or voluntary): fire trucks cost up to a million bucks because of all the bells, whistles, lights, chrome and other non-utilitarian doodads the fire folks insist on embellishing their trucks.
Yep. You’d think some enterprising engineer could come up with something especially for small towns so the one truck they have doesn’t bleed them dry.
Also, interesting that we gave excess military equipment that only serves one purpose…fear and control and not something like old firetrucks, etc.
Plus they are relatively low mileage, but high engine hours with hard running for the pumps.
Design them so the motors can be rebuilt / replaced easily and at low cost and keep using the chassis.
Hey, as soon as you drive it off the lot, it loses 25% of the value….
Didn’t Top Gear address that in one episode?
Yes! I found it. James May started a private fire service.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dESpqw4UI8
Electrify the fire fleet.
The Future of Firetrucks?
https://youtu.be/GPcacmetIX4?si=gM2aOBg6F9uI0r98
Would it be funny or tragic if an engine shows up, the battery catches on fire, and they can’t put it out?
Funny if it’s not your house burning alongside the truck.
Tragic if it is.
$40k for top trims. Words fail me.
https://arstechnica.com/features/2025/02/the-ranger-xp-kinetic-is-the-ultimate-electric-utv-at-a-high-price/
*falls out of chair*
I can think of one very good argument for electric UTVs:
Noise. Nothing says “pastoral and bucolic” like some moron revving his UTV on a summer evening.
Oh, and that’s price? It’s not that far out of line for any tricked-out side by side UTV. You can get to $30K with a little effort on a Polaris.
Joe Rogan is a proponent for example, often in the context of fire and police protection.
He will still talk about how he supported Bernie Sanders (less so these days) but the “fire department is socialism” really tests me when I hear it. I immediately want to turn off spotify and throw my phone.
Also when he says “what we need is less losers” as if that is somehow some kind of profound insight.
Design them so the motors can be rebuilt / replaced easily and at low cost and keep using the chassis.
Bring back Coventry Climax.
There are reasonable arguments for public fire departments, including the historical one that they evolved from private volunteer fire fighting and thus were something we had been doing collectively already and simply recognized the existing, freely arrived at, reality. And practical ones including that fires not attended to on neighboring properties tend to spread to other properties, particularly in crowded urban environments. I am sure a private sector fire service could be workable, it would as you mention, have to put out at least some fires on properties not in contract with the service simply to avoid the fires getting out of control and affecting properties that are in contract. None of that makes this an example of socialism except in the fever dreams of idiot socialists, and rabid ancaps. It’s also probably the single least politically possible, least popular, least beneficial, and least likely single place to push for privatization of an existing government service, so I fully expect it to be a primary push for any ancaps out there who seem to enjoy bashing their heads against the hardest walls protecting the smallest gains.
“…so I fully expect it to be a primary push for any ancaps out there who seem to enjoy bashing their heads against the hardest walls protecting the smallest gains.”
Many moons ago I remember talking to some Chicago libertarians when I lived in Chicago, and you’ll never find a group that had this self-righteous uncompromising view of the world. I agreed with everything they said, but they had this belief that it’s either all or nothing, where I’m a believer in implementing bit by bit libertarian policy especially in a place like Chicago. I told them if you come right out and call every service provided by the city as immoral and socialist, while you may be right, you’ll turn people off immediately. And that we should also, slowly infiltrate the IL GOP. They got on their high horses and told me that I lacked any principles.
“…you’ll never find a group that had this self-righteous uncompromising view of the world.”
I’m not calling Libertarians this, just the group I met when I lived in Chicago. Wanted to add that disclaimer.
Principle 1: It is better to allow the outright Marxists to control everything than to accept less than instant purity!
Principle 2: Finding ways to express our message that might resonate with some of the 99% of the populace that isn’t libertarian is selling out!
Principled vs. pragmatic libertarianism has been papered over in the LP until recently. One wonders how libertarianism would have fared if, back in the 1970s the folks (a guy named Eric Rittberg comes to mind.) who wanted to form a libertarian caucus in the GOP had prevailed?
Many moons ago I remember talking to some Chicago libertarians when I lived in Chicago
Mythical creatures.
“I suppose the ‘socialist’ aspect is that, in a government system, in theory, everyone in the municipality gets equal protection regardless of how much was paid”
Well, some people pay a lot more in taxes, so that falls down on that count. And the private fire service will come even to non-subscribers’ houses, so it falls down on that count, too.
Socialism is not “The government collects taxes and does stuff”. And that’s about the only definition that encompasses fire and police departments as they currently exist.
https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/new-fbi-leaker-caught-red-handed-after-tipping-off-venezuelan-gang-ahead-of-ice-raid-mstef/
Hmmm.
The fact that they are only considering filing criminal charges, as if losing their job and pension is punishment enough, shows we have a long way to go.
I wanna see feebs doing the perp walk.
If true, the Trump Administration aren’t fucking around.
Senate sets midnight vote for Tulsi.
https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1889401819853627782
Why at midnight?
Democracy lives in darkness or something.
I am disappointed that no one posted Iron Maiden.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgUQpm5Cykw
Because the democrats are invoking every possible Senatorial procedural rule to delay confirming Trump’s cabinet – in response, Team R is making the dems show up at exactly the hour when the procedural delay ends to then begin the vote.
IOW, you a-holes want to fuck around on the minimum 30 hour rule before voting on a nominee after cloture (for example), then we’ll start voting right at hour 30+ 1 minute.
Here are the Senate Rules if anyone cares. https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate
Thanks Ozy!
Given their age, there’s a fair number of Senators who won’t be functional at that hour. Don’t know which way that cuts, though.
Another Politico Article recognizing reality.
How Democrats Were Tricked Into Believing the Economy Was Strong
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/11/democrats-tricked-strong-economy-00203464
https://archive.fo/dB9VR#selection-849.50-849.114
Lol.
I don’t believe those who went into this past election taking pride in the unemployment numbers understood that the near-record low unemployment figures — the figure was a mere 4.2 percent in November — counted homeless people doing occasional work as “employed.” But the implications are powerful. If you filter the statistic to include as unemployed people who can’t find anything but part-time work or who make a poverty wage (roughly $25,000), the percentage is actually 23.7 percent. In other words, nearly one of every four workers is functionally unemployed in America today — hardly something to celebrate
closer to reality
“Tricked.”
More like blind to it. F*ing morons.
They changed the title in the latest piece. I think they got pushback on the “tricked”.
Once again you don’t own your own vehicle.
Jeep Software Glitch Causes Nonstop Extended Warranty Pop-Up Ads
https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/cars/news-blog/jeep-software-glitch-causes-nonstop-extended-warranty-pop-up-ads-44511934
I won’t own a vehicle manufactured after 2019
Great comment there:
“It’s a modern Jeep so it is REALLY trying to let you know to get that extended warranty.”
Within the nation’s capital, this gap in perception has had profound implications. For decades, a small cohort of federal agencies have reported many of the same economic statistics, using fundamentally the same methodology or relying on the same sources, at the same appointed times. Rarely has anyone ever asked whether the figures they release hew to reality.
No kidding. Nobody who matters, anyway.
During my career, many were the federal statistic “requests” that were sent back with numbers pulled out of my….
The picture is similarly misleading when examining the methodology used to track how much Americans are earning.
But people are making more than ever! Wage growth is higher than it has ever been!
Head of the declassification task force on JFK: “I believe there were two shooters”
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1889418021262733379