Sometimes I call Swiss for a favor.
Sometimes he calls me. It’s a mutually beneficial relationship.
Fresh from the archive.org press thingy dated July 5:
What Richard Hofstadter called the paranoid style in American politics is no longer a fringe phenomenon: Bizarre conspiracy theories are now mainstream on the American right. And one manifestation of this paranoia is the persistent dismissal of positive economic data as fake when a Democrat occupies the White House.
During the Obama years there was a large faction of “inflation truthers,” who insisted that deficit spending and monetary expansion must surely be causing runaway inflation, and that if official numbers failed to match that prediction it was only because the government was cooking the books.
With inflation falling rapidly over the past year, we’ve seen some resurgence of inflation trutherism. But the more notable development has been the emergence of what we might call recession truthers — a significant faction that seems frustrated by the Biden economy’s refusal, at least so far, to enter the recession they have repeatedly predicted or insisted is already underway.
Gee what gives them that impression inflation is happening? Pay no attention to the corporate press explanations of higher food prices having nothing to do with inflation but instead some other boogeyman over the past year. Supply chains, culled herds, Ireland kneecapping their entire non booze related exports….Seriously, how the fuck am I supposed to butter bread now?
Now, there are some sociological differences between the old inflation truthers and the new recession truthers. The former group tended to be old-school reactionaries still pining for a return to the gold standard. The new group is dominated by tech bros, billionaires who imagine themselves focused on the future rather than the golden past, more likely to be crypto cultists than gold bugs.
Well shit. Why would they ever think that when Larry Fink of Blackrock, one of the largest financial firms on the planet, spent the last month simping for Bitcoin?
Indeed, the most prominent recession truther right now is none other than Elon Musk:
But the new truthers are, if anything, even sillier than the old truthers.
You might have expected technology billionaires to be well-informed about the world — someone like Musk could, if he chose, easily maintain a large research department for his personal edification. (The annual budget for the whole Bureau of Labor Statistics is less than $700 million.) Yet they are often, in practice, easy marks for grifters and con men. I’ll talk later about why.
But first, let’s ask how we know that the recession truthers are wrong.
It’s not as if governments never fake economic data; authoritarian regimes do it all the time, and if America eventually turns authoritarian — a disturbingly likely event — it could happen here, too.
Odd thing to hand wave, dontcha think? The White House redefined “recession” last year. Then there is the good folks at the Federal Reserve doing the same thing in plain sight. Total conspiracy.
For now, however, America’s statistical agencies remain highly professional. They’re staffed and to a large extent led by civil servants who care a lot about their reputations for integrity. We can be pretty sure that if political appointees were cooking the books we’d be hearing about it from multiple whistle-blowers.
*Pauses for laughter.*
Beyond that, while official data is still the best way to track the U.S. economy — no private organization can currently match the resources and expertise of the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Bureau of Economic Analysis — there are, in fact, many independent sources of evidence on the economic state of the nation. And they all more or less confirm what the official data says.
Consider, for example, the National Federation of Independent Business’s survey of small businesses, which still shows that many of them intend to expand their workforces:
Or consider surveys of purchasing managers, which are often used as early warning indicators of economic change. These surveys look a bit less favorable than either the official data or small-business indicators, but still aren’t signaling anything that looks like a recession.
Claims for unemployment insurance — which represent data collected by states, not the federal government — also point to a still-solid labor market:
Oh, and since inflation trutherism is, as I said, also experiencing something of a revival, it’s probably worth noting that private surveys confirm official reports of rapidly declining inflation as well:
Archive.org doesn’t show the charts he is using to confirm his biases. So here is a link that confirms mine!
So why do we see tech bros indulging in conspiracy theories, often citing random Twitter accounts to justify their views?
The answer, I believe, is that technology billionaires are especially susceptible to the belief that they’re uniquely brilliant, able to instantly master any subject, from Covid to the war in Ukraine. They could afford to hire experts to brief them on world affairs, but that would only work if they were willing to listen when the experts told them things they didn’t want to hear. So what happens instead, all too often, is that they go down the rabbit hole: Their belief in their own genius makes them highly gullible, easy marks for grifters claiming that the experts are all wrong.
What you need to know, then, is that the economic data isn’t fake. A recession might eventually happen, but it isn’t happening now. And the wealthy men claiming to know better are actually less well-informed than, say, the average reader of The New York Times — because they don’t know what they don’t know, and nobody is in a position to enlighten them.
Krugman uses a lot of space to attempt to explain Dunning-Kruger to his audience without mentioning it because to do so means they might actually look it up learn something. All the while he is completely unaware he is equally susceptible to getting DKed as “experts” in a narrow field are the most susceptible to DKing. His audience is too dumb to realize they’re getting DKed given they believe by reading columns by esteemed experts like Krugman, they know everything they need to know about the given subject: just put a retard like Krugman in charge.
The irony is delightful. In the end, which way western man? Economics nerd that been wrong about nearly every prediction he’s ever made once he began writing for a propaganda outfit, or a quirky business tycoon that actually does provide products people for some reason think they need? Who has a better read on the economy?
“With inflation falling rapidly over the past year”
Can I get some of that shit?
I can only assume they mean the “rate of inflation” or some such — i.e. inflation is only 4.05% YoY instead of the 4.1% it was at this time last year… or some other accounting hand waving to try to spin things positively. Or they just decided to leave out some other crucial daily staple from their calculation… but more likely the former.
Without looking, I’m going to guess that Krugabe is talking about monetary inflation and ignoring cost-push inflation (supply restrictions).
The real problem is that he’s ignoring the 800lb gorilla, the value of the dollar. The Fed is not currently trying to control inflation (although they may allow that impression to persist), instead they’re trying to save the dollar and US Treasuries from rapid dumping in overseas markets.
When inflation falls from 10% to 8% it gets reported by MSM as ‘inflation now -2%!”
“Inflation has dropped by 20%!”
It’s the same math and accounting that suggests keeping the budget flat, with Covid $ baked in, is tantamount to a massive budget cut. He’s lying but his readers are too stupid to believe they’re being lied to because he assures them he’s not lying and that the other people are lying because they’re republican, so you know they are lying and they are also a conspiracy theorist and you wouldn’t want to be lumped in with that icky group, would you?
“The annual budget for the whole Bureau of Labor Statistics is less than $700 million.”
Your tax dollars at work.
If it wasn’t for the rampant inflation since the ’70s, I would expect that to be the DoD’s budget, for criminy’s sake.
if America eventually turns authoritarian — a disturbingly likely event — it could happen here, too.
But authoritarian collectivism is good, so we’re safe.
Turns?
What year is it?
Having the whole country / economy directed by Krug’s preferred Top Men — Good Governance.
If one of those terrible, evil non-Democrats gets elected — authoritarian!
When the government has been leaving key things like “food” out of the inflation calculation all my life…
When the “positive” numbers all seem to be rolled back 2 or 3 months later when the media is chasing the next shiny thing…
When I can see packages / contents shrinking if the price is holding, and prices shooting up everywhere else…
No, I’m not going to defer to the “Experts” and their dancing idiot at the NYT.
I would add, as stated above, that they literally changed the definition of recession right in front of our faces.
But they did it with experts. Very respectable, nay, revered experts.
If you don’t look at food, fuel, housing, transportation, and labor, prices are flat.
These are great! Krugnuts is just so, so bad and probably has no idea how retarded he sounds.
I wonder – do these regime flunkies ever have moments of self reflection and doubt? Late at night, alone, when not even the cats are willing to hang about?
Anyway, thanks for the look inside the funhouse of Krugman’s mind, WM.
He sounds more ridiculous every time. He is our version of Baghdad Bob.
I have that question too. At one point they could justify anything as working toward their socialist utopia. But they are selling their souls to cover for people at the top (especially Biden) are clearly corrupt and making themselves rich and powerful while doing nothing for “the cause”. Do they ever think, “This isn’t what I signed up for”?
Too busy swimming in his bathtub filled with gold coins
There is so little accountability, or respectability, in the bureaucracy.
Another case in point. I had the pleasure of interacting with Dan Love at Burning Man. At least he wasn’t running a full blown paramilitary operation there – just illegal seizure of US Mail.
What a raging cunte
He’s paid to deliver the currently desired economic narrative. Right now, what the Left (Davos, Yellen, et al) want more than anything else is for the Fed to pivot.
So therefore, inflation is under control.
Interestingly, one might think PK would be citing higher unemployment numbers in order to get the same effect, but I guess that’s too touchy for the Dems. They haven’t been able to successfully offload the blame for that to the Fed yet.
No need to thank me, dear.
(The annual budget for the whole Bureau of Labor Statistics is less than $700 million.)
That’s a lot of headless chickens.
BLS is as useful as tits on a boar.
I know a couple of people who work there and they think their product is incredibly needed, but when the main purpose of the agency is to perpetuate the currently desired economic myth the question becomes “needed by whom?”
“more likely to be crypto cultists than gold bugs.”
Porque no los dos?
And I presume that for their data they rely on lowly grunts like me who are one small step up from the actual trenches (in my case, for employment/compensation numbers.) Whenever I get one of those stupid surveys, I skim it to see if I’d face jail time for ignoring it. If not, I “file” it. Ain’t nobody got time for that.
He sounds more ridiculous every time. He is our version of Baghdad Bob.
There was a time when I read Krugabe’s column on a regular basis, purely for entertainment purposes. But it got to the point, during the later President Cartoon Villain days, that I had to stop. It was like seeing an odd but amusing street preacher suddenly drop his trousers, take a big shit on the sidewalk, and then eat it.
Lol.
Very vivid, Brooksie.
It was around that time that tom woods and bob murphy quit doing their Contra-Krugman podcast. They said that he had gotten so ridiculous during the trump years that there was no longer a point in them taking apart his economic arguments.
STEVE SMITH FEEL TINGLES, WANT VISIT NOOSPAPER HOOMAN. WANT DEEPLY PROBE ECONOMIC SUBJECT.
AND BY DEEPLY PROBE, MEAN….
It means what?
What does it mean?
The answer, I believe, is that technology billionaires are especially susceptible to the belief that they’re uniquely brilliant, able to instantly master any subject, from Covid to the war in Ukraine.
Unlike, say, retired economists who write political propaganda for the New York Times.
It’s interesting that he makes this generalization to attack Musk. I’m not going to read the guy’s past articles, but dollars to donuts says he thinks the technology billionaires on his team are just swell.
His envy is showing. Not every tech genius runs a sub company.
A Subway Sandwich company?
Let’s rename it ‘Jared’s Kids Love Big Subs!’
And they cannot lie
Krugman’s job is to defer to the other “experts” and convince you to do the same.
Just as he would expect them to defer to him.
yeah it’s all a fake “expert” circle jerk
so much credentialism that most of the time isn’t even relevant. It reminds me so much of the “Public Health Experts” who, if you looked them up, were ER docs or studied obesity in Public Health School or other garbage. They knew nothing more about viruses than literally anyone else but got fellated because they said what Pfizer wanted them to.
Public health is a field that I don’t even believe a PhD in the damn subject knows anything about it. Because they’ve solved all the fundamental problems on vectors and sanitation. It’s essentially a dead-end intellectually, so these assholes run off onto subjects they know nothing about (like nutrition or violence) and pontificate their dialectical bullshit.
Good take. I’ve been reading a lot lately about the history of vaccines and it is striking how many former killers were well on their way to extinction even prior to the vaxes. Improvements in diet, sanitation and an overall increase in standard of living has positive effects – who would have guessed?
Public health is a giant breeding ground for wannabe authoritarians who care. I’m yet to meet one that actually had a clue what they were doing and I know quite a few from college. They’re mostly parrots.
One notes that the aristocrats of old (and probably of new) believed they cared for their serfs and that they were best suited to shelter and protect them.
Parrots, hmm.
For some drowsy reason I had just been thinking about the guy in The Paper Chase who assumes he’ll do well in law school because he has a good memory.
Right now, what the Left (Davos, Yellen, et al) want more than anything else is for the Fed to pivot.
Debt service is a cruel master.
I can only assume they mean the “rate of inflation” or some such — i.e. inflation is only 4.05% YoY instead of the 4.1% it was at this time last year… or some other accounting hand waving to try to spin things positively. Or they just decided to leave out some other crucial daily staple from their calculation… but more likely the former.
They are doing exactly what they did with the “economic recovery”. They tanked the economy, and then bragged about what a great job they did of expanding it by taking their boot off its neck.
Food, clothing, shelter, transportation, utilities, insurance . . . . all up by a staggering amount.
But, the good news is the CPI is sliding downwards.
Dear Common Tater:
The movie of the week is Vampire Ecstasy, aka The Devil’s Plaything.
Short subject is Don’t Be a Sucker from the war department.
I will be on the road and offline tomorrow and most of Thursday. That is all!
From Wikipedia:
So, asking for a friend, which version will we be seeing?
Tune in and find out…
*cheese eating grin*
Stop beating around the bush!
The cable-ready version. If you can find it, watch Devil’s Plaything. I would be curious to do a runtime comparison and see how many minutes were taken out.
I am guessing about a minute or two of 70’s shrubbery.
Their belief in their own genius makes them highly gullible, easy marks for grifters claiming that the experts are all wrong.
They apparently have no mirrors where Krugnutz lives.
I submit that anybody using the term “bro” has lost the argument.
You sure about that, brah?
I would say that ‘my guy’ is far more egregious.
My Brother in Christ, why now would you say that?
I’ve never gotten that one personally, but seen it a bunch.
I get the feeling it isn’t sincere, somehow.
I bet you’re cynical about fish symbols on business cards too.
A little.
I’m not your guy, friend!
I’m not your friend, pal!
Oy mate, what’s chappin’ yer hide?
My dude is worse.
bruh…
Bru!
Löwenbräu
My Little Brony
Friendo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irn-Bru
Now do brocephus.
I’ve tasted my share of nasty beverages, but that is in the top five.
Like bubblegum-flavored mouthwash, if I remember both correctly.
That’s about right! I managed two sips and threw the rest away.
Seems to keep Scotland going, somehow.
They aren’t the healthiest people in the world, but yeah.
A week in Edinburgh would hit the spot right about now, though.
Och, oh aye.
(aw aye?)
Dude.
Now you look here, brotato…
There’s something wrong with you. All of you.
An extra $20.00 oughta cover that, no?
“It’s not as if governments never fake economic data; authoritarian regimes do it all the time.”
We don’t fake economic numbers here. We just quietly issue revisions months later after the initial headlines have subsided.
May: “We are pleased to announce Person X will be our new CFO starting August 1st.”
Today: “Person X will not be assuming the CFO role and will be leaving the company effective immediately.”
I’m quite curious exactly what he did. There was a guy here that was fired from his $200k job because he shoplifted energy drinks from the cafeteria. Some people are dumb.
I do not understand people. I mean, gave up a middle class job over something like that?
At least embezzle millions.
I have a feeling if I were making $200k, I’d consider myself upper middle class at the very least.
*ponders*
Yeah, Not only could I then afford all the ammo I wanted, I could have a storage facility built to house it.
I can’t afford the full middle middle class lifestyle at 100K. I’m not sure where that puts the snazzy upper middle at.
You spend too much on minis and paint.
I’ve done the math. It’s cheaper than ammo.
Maybe I just have lowered expectations from a lifetime of thrift, but I assume most people I see who live a ‘full middle class’ lifestyle are doing it on credit, whether the bank’s or their parent’s.
100k, if I was single, should be plenty. Kids and wives are super expensive. Luckily my wife’s earnings offset that for the most part. Waiting for her business to explode and then I can retire. 😀
Have you figured out how to make it look like an accident?
*golf clap*
Just get yourself some children. That will solve all those pesky liquidity problems.
Depends on where you live.
$200k will give you a comfortable life here in Iowa.
Not so much on the west coast.
My house was about $350k. $200k/yr would be plenty comfy.
You paid more than twice your annual salary for a house?
Seems reckless.
I live on the edge.
so much credentialism that most of the time isn’t even relevant. It reminds me so much of the “Public Health Experts” who, if you looked them up, were ER docs or studied obesity in Public Health School or other garbage. They knew nothing more about viruses than literally anyone else but got fellated because they said what Pfizer wanted them to.
Look, you. Who are you going to take “healthy lifestyle” advice from? Some random gym rat political legacy, or a credentialed government expert who just happens to be morbidly obese?
Weight is just a number
The result of a function of mass and gravity.
Hey Winston’s Mom,
When are we getting to the bust part of this particular boom/bust cycle? There is some land next door I want to buy and I would like to see the real estate market good and crashed before I make an offer on it.
Obviously not her, but timing the market is a motherfucker. Are you paying cash? I doubt there is a huge downside to buying raw land now as opposed to a couple years. The market is goofy right now. CRE is looking really grim, but there appears to still be a lack of housing stock. Rates should have driven prices down – and in some places they have – but they are still very high.
Other signals – AirBNB, hotels etc are shitting the bed. This should cause a sell-off but who the fuck knows?
Short answer: I wish I would have dumped money into land when I was your age.
The contraction in the global supply of both labor and goods is what I think is propping up the housing market at the moment. The shut downs of 2020-2021 I think stopped a lot new building and the continued high prices of material and labor have keep the supply of new houses low and expensive. The rising of interest rates should have driven down prices if not for those factors, which would have put some one with some savings in a great position to acquire real estate.
The current prices of real estate seem unsustainable, but hell. There is a reason they say that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Don’t forget the funny money buying up shit tons of stock over the ‘vid years. That as much as anything helped keep the supply low and prices weirdly high.
The problem with a bust cycle is you aren’t likely to be prosperous during it, so the cost will still be relative to your ability to pay. If you got reduced ability, then reduced price doesn’t mean much.
Things seem to even out, a neighbor stopped by today, said there’s a lot of “For Sale” signs around on vacant property. I don’t get out much but it’s probably high priced by my definition. 10 K an acre seems to be a price for raw land not on a lake. If I was buying that would seem high, if I was selling that sounds reasonable.
I have a 9 acre piece that I don’t use, on a small river. The calendar is slipping by me.
I think bust cycle means something else to Winston’s mom.
Two or more.
https://imgur.com/gallery/67R7aLv
I covet
Do it.
You’re buying Massachusetts?
at a discount, hopefully.
The place is infested with Massholes, that’s gotta drive the price down. Then there a place in the eat where everyone is wicked retahded.
Heh
If I knew the answer to this question, what the fuck makes you think I would actually tell you?
$20, same as downtown?
Hmm. Sure.
https://babylonbee.com/news/moses-asks-god-if-he-could-re-part-the-sea-real-quick-because-he-dropped-his-sunglasses-in-there
Apparently there was a lot of stuff turned into the lost and found at CO Nats. Including a gun. I have not (yet) heard the story behind that, only that its owner was located.
How embarrassing.
Not going to live that one down. Ever.
Should have joined the Capitol Police instead. Then you can leave your gun on a toilet and shoot unarmed chicks in the neck.
*Summons the ghost of Barney Fife
Fun fact: In IDPA you carry a magazine with a single round in it (to load the chamber and replace with a full mag before starting). This mag is called a “Barney.”
“Give me my bullet Andy!”
There is a sizeable contingent of shooters (maybe most?) that have no idea how that name came into existence.
Bleach Demons
https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1678770444235841537
I think my new punk band will be the Anal-Bleach Demons
Excellent idea. The graphic can be a big, white sphincter with punk letters.
No way. Hockey team.
The jerseys would be sick.