IFLA: The “No, You Were NOT Told That” Edition of the Horoscope for the week of Nov 19

by | Nov 19, 2023 | IFLA | 177 comments

It’s difficult to get solo videos of her.


So, between arriving back home mid-week and the sinus infection that was the inevitable result of too little sleep, too much alcohol and massive crowds, there was very little time to do this week’s horoscope.  Fortunately, the skies are pretty simple, astrologically-speakingwise.  A lot of the signs are ambiguous, which is probably a necessity when you think that astrologers were typically employed by people with head-chopping ability and the moral “don’t shoot the messenger” didn’t exist until the invention of practical firearms.  So if you want to clarify things, you need to get out ye-olde protractor and start calculating some angles.  And with that, we can safely rule out adultery happening on Wednesday. All this week, we’ve got Mercury acting upon Venus, indicating rapid changes in romance, and/or luck (good or bad) in that area.  Midweek, we’ve got Jupiter retrograde joining the dance.  But because of those angles we were talking about, this is a sign that whatever authority-driven fuckery is in opposition to said hijinx, not leading it.  If we wanted to personalize it, (which I would do were I in HRM’s, employ) we could look at Jupiter retrograde not as representing misrule, but rather a bad ruler.  The king does get first dibs on being represented by Jupiter after all.  So we’ve probably got Charlie fucking up some relationships, probably some royals that none here give a whit about.

The bad thing about being sick is not going out/getting vids of Lily playing.  So you get leftovers/rejects that happened to be on the phone still.

In order of joining in: Lily, Alpina, Angel, Callie, Thumb.


Scorpio: The Tower – *BOOM* AIEEEEE!

Sagittarius: King of Wands reversed – Good, but severe; austere, yet tolerant.

Capricorn: 8 of Cups – Timidity, honor, modesty, the decline of a matter, or that a matter which has been thought to be important is really of slight consequence–either for good or evil.

Aquarius: 5 of Cups –  Loss, but something remains over; three have been taken, but two are left. Inheritance, patrimony, transmission but not corresponding to expectations marriage but not without bitterness or frustration.

Aries: The Blank Card – you are without guidance and/or destiny this week.

Taurus: 2 of Swords – Conformity, equipoise, courage, friendship, peace through strength, vengeance.

Gemini: The High Priestess – Secrets, mystery, the future as yet unrevealed, silence, tenacity, mystery, wisdom, science.

Cancer: The Emperor Reversed- Benevolence, compassion, credit, confusion to enemies, obstruction, immaturity.

Leo: 2 of Cups reversed – Broken promises, an alliance between your enemies, poison.

Virgo: Knight of Coins reversed – Inertia, idleness, repose of that kind, stagnation, placidity, discouragement, carelessness.

Libra: Queen of Cups –  Good, fair woman; honest, devoted woman, loving intelligence, and hence the gift of vision; success, happiness, pleasure; also wisdom, virtue; a perfect spouse and a good mother. 

Todays’ music is from my favorite renfair music group, Volgemut.

About The Author

Not Adahn

Not Adahn

Despite all my rage, I am still just an impeccably dressed rat.

177 Comments

  1. Gender Traitor

    Scorpio: The Tower – *BOOM* AIEEEEE!

    😳

  2. Don escaped Texas

    Aries: The Blank Card – you are without guidance and/or destiny this week

    whistles Que Sera Sera – Roger Altman

    • Don escaped Texas

      Gemini: The High Priestess – Secrets, mystery, the future as yet unrevealed, silence, tenacity, mystery, wisdom, science.

      a trade deal with the Taliban, yeah: that’s the ticket – DJT45

      • Don escaped Texas

        Capricorn: 8 of Cups – Timidity, honor, modesty, the decline of a matter, or that a matter which has been thought to be important is really of slight consequence–either for good or evil.

        biased report! – George Anthony Devolder Santos

  3. The Late P Brooks

    Sagittarius: King of Wands reversed – Good, but severe; austere, yet tolerant.

    The floggings will continue until morale improves.

    • Tres Cool

      I only hit you out of love!

      • DrOtto

        I didn’t want to, but I owed it to them.

  4. Sean

    “Cancer: The Emperor Reversed- Benevolence, compassion, credit, confusion to enemies, obstruction, immaturity.”

    Huh. I guess that sounds ok.

  5. kinnath

    No pisces today. I guess that’s a bad sign.

    • SDF-7

      Hmm… a conspiracy maybe? Something’s fishy, that’s for sure.

    • Not Adahn

      Some days the fish are impossible to catch.

  6. Not Adahn

    No diner this weekend 🙁 I didn’t want to spread my non-coof sickness around.

    • Chafed

      Feel better soon.

  7. R.J.

    Boy, where is DEG? That Leo horoscope is more than sufficiently shitty.

    • Not Adahn

      Two of Cups is a really nice card — when it’s drawn upright.

  8. Mojeaux

    Taurus: 2 of Swords – Conformity, equipoise, courage, friendship, peace through strength, vengeance.

    Twitter be crazy today, yo.

  9. Sean

    Lunch steaks grilled and eaten.

    Still have two more to do for dinner.

    Strips were back down to $10.49/lb this week at Wegman’s. 😃

    • Ted S.

      Store brand egg nog was $5.79 for a half gallon. I think it was $4.99 last year.

    • UnCivilServant

      I threw some stuff in a pan – ground lamb, diced onion, aleppo pepper, minced garlic, salt, pepper. It became a taco filler on swiss cheese (first cheese I grabbed from the fridge) and keto tortillas.

      I have no idea how much any of it cost, since it was stuff on hand.

      • Ted S.

        What’s a leppo pepper?

      • Toxteth O'Grady

        Yummy (probably).

      • Aloysious

        What’s aleppo?

    • R.J.

      New York Strips are da bomb.

  10. juris imprudent

    you are without guidance and/or destiny this week

    I finally conquer the world!!!

    • Sean

      Narf!

  11. KK, Non-Man

    “There is no fate but what we make ourselves” -Sarah Connor

    you are without guidance and/or destiny this week.

    • SDF-7

      Oh shit! She’s going to kill Miles Dyson!

    • Not Adahn

      Sarah Connor was one of the Final Five?

  12. Dr. Fronkensteen

    I have faith the Bears will find a way to blow this.

    • slumbrew

      Up by less than a touchdown and a whole quarter to go. I think your faith is justified.

      • Dr. Fronkensteen

        And so it is. 12 point lead 5 1/2 minutes and they blew it.

    • The Gunslinger

      If only the Bears were smart enough to fire Matty Eberflus before he can even get on a plane back to Chicago.

  13. slumbrew

    Finally watched last night’s F1 race – I think that was the best race of the year. Really entertaining.

    I take bad all the bad things I said about Vegas.

    • R.J.

      Vegas is not a bad place. It has everything, good and bad. It is what you make of it.

      • Zwak says the real is not governable, but self-governing.

        Vegas isn’t bad, it is the worst.

        God, I hate that town.

      • Ted S.

        Worse than Nikki?

      • Zwak says the real is not governable, but self-governing.

        Indeed, a city built on Nikkis.

      • slumbrew

        I was specifically bad-mouthing the Vegas grand prix – I thought it was gonna be a boring course and just a cynical cash grab. It was legitimately great.

        Vegas, the town, I have no particular beef with. You know what you’re getting when you go.

      • Zwak says the real is not governable, but self-governing.

        It is not uncommon for heavy users to stand at a machine for eight or even twelve hours at a stretch, developing blood clots and other medical issues. Paramedics in Las Vegas dread getting calls from casinos, which usually turn out to be heart attacks. The problem is that when someone collapses, the other gamblers won’t get out of the way to let the paramedics do their job; they won’t leave their machines. Deafening fire alarms are similarly ignored; there have been incidents where rising flood waters didn’t dislodge them. The gamblers are so absorbed that they become oblivious of their surroundings.

        SchĂŒll interviews one woman who makes sure to wear dark clothing when she goes to gamble, so it won’t show when she urinates on herself. Once a gambler has taken possession of a machine, the thought of leaving it is intolerable, and so the urine-and-feces issue turns out to be a fairly common part of the machine gambling experience.

        That is why I hate Vegas.

    • KSuellington

      Yep, that was a great race. I thought it would be good as the circuit looked fast and interesting in layout. I’d have like to see the Monagasque pull off the win, and the penalty sucked for Sainz, but it was fun. Weirdly enough the three best races this year were all street circuits, Vegas, Singapore and Monaco.

  14. Tres Cool

    Virgo: Knight of Coins reversed – Inertia, idleness, repose of that kind, stagnation, placidity, discouragement, carelessness.

    After 5 weeks of travel, I’m off this week. Its a fair cop.

    • R.J.

      Good. Enjoy your time at home with Jugsy.

  15. R.J.

    Two vodka martinis down and I am into the Bulleitt Rye. Oh dear.

    • juris imprudent

      I find I’m drinking so much less in retirement – there just isn’t the same level of stress.

      • Fourscore

        Time to celebrate then, the lowered stress.

      • R.J.

        I am working. A lot.

      • Chafed

        I feel your pain.

  16. Homple

    “Virgo: Knight of Coins reversed – Inertia, idleness, repose of that kind, stagnation, placidity, discouragement, carelessness.”

    That’s not astrology, you’ve been reading my mail.

    • Not Adahn

      I’m not the fed on staff.

      • UnCivilServant

        I’m only a local. Someone else is the Fed.

      • rhywun

        More like a statie.

        *side eye*

      • DrOtto

        Exactly what a fed would say.

      • Zwak says the real is not governable, but self-governing.

        Hello fellow Libertarians, may I interest you in some Bitcoin, Marijuana, and sex of the ass?

      • R C Dean

        *raises hand*

      • The Last American Hero

        No Mexicans?

  17. Tres Cool

    Why did the turkey join a band?

    Cause he had the drumsticks.

    • Suthenboy

      Ouch. Keep making jokes like that and you will have to get a new handle.

      • Tres Cool

        Since I have a 16 year-old, Im obligated to know (and share) corny DadJokesℱ.
        And I love doing it just to embarrass my kid.

    • Brochettaward

      But from the European Union, Arab and Moslem governments, wealthy Arab people and their organizations. Eventually, we will not take another dollar from the Jews.”

      Emphasis on the EU there in my mind. The Europeans are responsible for the entirety of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with their brutality towards Jews over millennia. culminating in the Holocaust. Yet there is no shame on the part of Europeans who criticize Israel for doing what it must to exist.

      • Zwak says the real is not governable, but self-governing.

        Jews keep reminding Euros of what they had done, which justifies what they will do.

    • Suthenboy

      It is stunning to me how evil ideologies have taken root in our society. Communism and general collectivism? Really? Jihadism? Fuck me dead, that is pure savagery. Trannyism and pedophilia? This is straight up insanity. A bizzaro menage of anti-enlightenment freaks. I was brought up to keep my hands off of other people and off of their property, that a man was only as good as his word, that institutions served individuals and their best interests, that individuals had inalienable rights – the greatest of which is the freedom of conscience.
      I know people have always hated truth and responsibility but it seems impossible to me that we are throwing everything away that made the USA the greatest nation in the history of the world. The generations before us fought, bled and died to defend these qualities and hand them down to us.

      Is this all a nightmare that I am going to wake up from?

      • Gustave Lytton

        Envy, greed, hedonism, unrestrained morality. All appealing things.

    • Chafed

      I didn’t realize most of that was going on.

  18. Suthenboy

    I was raised to believe that a man’s place in the world is to protect, shelter and nurture women and children. A real man stood up for victims and those who were weaker. I think that is where America’s love for the underdog comes from. It is why superheroes were so popular. The guys I grew up with are the guys that will step in front of a bullet, a bus or put themselves between a child and an angry bear without hesitation. Where are those guys now? Are we going extinct?
    I have never had a personal existential crisis. I have always known exactly who and what I am. I have always known why I am here.
    Now it seems narcissism rules the day.

    If there were no women or children in the world what would be my reason for even existing? I might as well crawl off into a ditch and die.

    • Gustave Lytton

      May have been for superheroes. Now I think it’s escapist fantasy idolizing something that doesn’t exist (superpowers). And adults not putting away childish things.

      • Suthenboy

        Ah, but it does exist albeit in small amounts. Not nearly enough to suit me.
        My nearest neighbor is mid-twenties. He is married to a great girl and has a very young son. He works his ass off every day to keep a roof over their heads and food in their mouths. He doesnt make much money so they struggle. His house, land and car is paid for. He keeps his nose to the grindstone and once repelled a dopehead house breaker at 4am. Held the guy at gunpoint until the sheriff arrived. That is what a genuine superhero looks like. Why dont we have more guys like that?
        Mrs. Suthenboy and I cook for them now and then. In return they cook for us. This gives me some hope for humanity. When I go off to play checkers with Elvis a few will still carry the torch. What troubles me is that the mush-brained morans greatly outnumber guys like that.

  19. Ownbestenemy

    [insert Its Happening! gif]
    WaPo Headline

    Trump-like libertarian Javier Milei wins Argentina’s presidency

    NYTimes Headline

    Argentina Elects Javier Milei in Victory for Far Right

    CNN Headline

    Massa concedes to far-right Milei in Argentina’s presidential run-off vote

    *actually a normal headline, the article gets to the meat of that crazy right-wing bombastic Trumpito

    BBC

    Right-winger Milei wins Argentina presidential poll

    FoxNews Headline
    There is none, they aren’t running an article on it I guess on their front page

    Breitbart

    Populist Libertarian Javier Milei Wins Presidency of Argentina in Landslide

    *probably the most accurate?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2023-11-19/argentina-presidential-runoff-election

    • Stinky Wizzleteats

      Best news I’ve heard in a while and it’s Argentina that pulls it off. Hopefully he does well and sets a good example.

      • Ownbestenemy

        My sister-in-law is wallowing in her prog tears. I love her, but she is a Peronist (I believe familia ties) and has said she wants to run for office to bring those ideas here (well, reinforce those ideas that are already here).

      • Chafed

        She will do great in NYC.

    • Gadfly

      Good luck to him. You’d have to be a bit crazy to volunteer to captain a sinking ship. Argentina will be a tough assignment to save.

    • Ownbestenemy

      +/- on President Biden sending a note of congratulations? I say a BS twit from his team that the WH will have to walk back and then in the morning, they will have to walk back even more around 10am when he goes on record.

      • R.J.

        That useless dried twig will not send congrats.
        If I hear another jackass journalist link libertarians to the far right, I am going to start cracking skulls.

      • Chafed

        *hands R.J. a crowbar*

      • juris imprudent

        *takes place in queue behind R.J. for when he tires of swinging the crowbar.*

    • Chafed

      That is great news. I hope he has the political power to implement his ideas.

      • juris imprudent

        Are there no courts? No legislatures? /in my best Ebeneezer Scrooge voice

  20. Ownbestenemy

    Milei has criticised China and Brazil, saying he won’t deal with “communists,” and favors stronger US ties

    Good luck with the US, you will be blackballed with this administration.

    • Stinky Wizzleteats

      China and Brazil deserve criticism, the CCP are monsters and Lula is a piece of crooked authoritarian shit.

      • R.J.

        Good. We all have someplace to go when the U.S. goes up in flames.

    • Zwak says the real is not governable, but self-governing.

      Biden won’t send anything due to his “advisors” not informing him of this. Someone will ask him about his, and then he will try to shake hands with a horse before stumbling away .

  21. Mojeaux

    The Child Quarterback is not a popular person right now.

    • R.J.

      What Child Is This?

      • Dr. Fronkensteen

        Already with the Christmas carols. Wait until Thanksgiving at least.

      • Mojeaux

        I had them rolling earlier today. I was just WAITING for my husband to notice, but when he did, it was worth it! *evil cackle*

      • R.J.

        Well! That’s quite Frosty.

      • Mojeaux

        One about to be laid to rest.

        Zach Wilson, Jets.

      • Ted S.

        Another ex-Packer in the game, however (Tim Boyle).

    • Mojeaux

      I see the Vikings also have a child.

      Mebbe I’m just old now.

      • Chafed

        Isn’t that one a Cinderella story?

      • Zwak says the real is not governable, but self-governing.

        Yeah, the surgeon I talked to the other day is like one third of my age, and I am only in my fifties.

      • Gustave Lytton

        Pictured

        Took the pup to the new vet, doc called me mister and sir.

      • Gadfly

        IIRC you have children in their teens/20s, which is around the age of a rookie player, so no wonder they all look like children to you.

      • Mojeaux

        😬😬😬

    • creech

      Are these the same Jets who took down the Eagles?

  22. Gustave Lytton

    Jimmy Carter can finally look at other women with lust in his heart again.

    • Chafed

      Lol. Too soon!

  23. Tres Cool

    Since the TV was on after the game, I endured a 60 Minutes piece on the Maui Wildfires.
    Good Lord, what a hit-piece on emotions and feels. And they summed it up with “..the Hawaii AG is still investigating the cause of the fires…”

    Now, I love being a conspiracy whack-job, But I think its pretty clear.

    • Chafed

      Let me guess. They didn’t ask any questions about local incompetence or the complete lack of public access to information afterwards.

      • Tres Cool

        The fact the firemen were tearing up, on camera, “….and then we ran out of water!”

        Now, Im not an expert on Hawaii (DBLEagle jump in) but I know its an ISLAND. Surrounded by WATER.
        Like the deranged slack-jawed moron I am, I was yelling at the TV “YOU HAVE WATER ALL AROUND YOU! WHYCOME YOU CANT FIND WATER?”

  24. Ownbestenemy

    Oh I see Disney dug its claws into the Percy Jackson series. Now the movie was terrible and left my son (who blew through every book before we can get the next one lined up to give to him) really conflicted on how they can change so much to remove the story. All races are equally displayed.

    Timothy Omundson (Hephaestus) and Lance Reddick (Zeus) and Jason Mantzoukas (Dionysus) and Suzanne Cryer (Echidna)
 are about the only things I could tolerate in the cast. Megan Mullally is absolutely a terrible actress unless she is playing Karen. If you make Zeus black, which I have no problems with, might wanna make all the other gods who are related you know…black.

    • Zwak says the real is not governable, but self-governing.

      I swear to god, Megan Mullaly has a voice that makes claws on a blackboard sound pleasant by comparison.

      • Ownbestenemy

        Curious, Zeus is pretty big in the book, guessing he will be CGI Reddick

  25. Winston

    Huh, so Milei pulled it off after all. Will he be able to do any good? Best of luck.

    Also the shit that Argentina had to go through to elect someone like him is something.

    Oh and the Left will be shitting on him constantly. The cosmotarians will not be happy.

    • juris imprudent

      The left are already disappointed with Boric in Chile. Poor dears.

  26. Suthenboy

    In case anyone is wondering why my unhinged screed above…

    A few weeks ago I had a conversation with a young woman friend who is divorced and has a 4yo son. She went on a date. It was a first date to a local festival. She brought her son along at her date’s request.
    Guy seemed a bit distant. Bought ice cream for himself and not for her or son. Talked mostly about himself and made no attempt to be friendly with her son (?). She says it turned out to be two dates…the first and the last.

    Sometime later I had a conversation with a young man, friend of my stepson. I dont remember how the conversation turned to the subject of men’s place in society but it did. I described to him the morality plays of days gone by where the standard was feed, water and shelter women, children, dogs and horses first. Then you eat and rest yourself.
    His response? He was incredulous and I quote him: “Fuck that.”
    I am concerned about the future of my country. Those darned kids today.

    • Gustave Lytton

      The fruit of equality.

    • The Hyperbole

      Dogs and Horses are tools/resources, if it comes down to them or me we are chowing down on Marmaduke/Mr. Ed stew.

      • Gadfly

        True, but depending on the circumstances it makes sense to take care of your tools first. That’s long term thinking.

      • The Hyperbole

        Dead men don’t wear plaid use tools, and I’d wager “Sure Dad starved himself to death but at least he left us a horse” isn’t a sentiment many have ever expressed.

    • Chafed

      I’m with you Suthen.

    • juris imprudent

      The victory of feminism – you’re equal now baby, I ain’t carrying you. Sure it doesn’t jibe for us old guys, but I can see how the young have learned that.

    • Derpetologist

      Something, something toxic masculinity…

    • slumbrew

      You’re describing a chivalrous attitude.

      To quote Insty,

      “ Chivalry was a system that imposed expectations on women as well as men. If women are uninterested in meeting those expectations, men certainly shouldn’t feel bound.”

      That’s not to insult your young lady friend – if she’s friends with you I suspect she’d be on board with her responsibilities in such a relationship.

      But that’s become less common.

  27. Derpetologist

    The pussies at Squaredle didn’t recognize “gringo” as a word. Apparently, it’s fucking offensive or some shit.

    • The Hyperbole

      What a bunch of Peckerwoods.

      • juris imprudent

        Yeah, substitute cracker, bet it doesn’t raise any objections.

      • The Hyperbole

        Gringo has a meaning that’s not a derogatory term for Ofays?

      • Zwak says the real is not governable, but self-governing.

        Well, a cracker isn’t a Jewish flatbread, so…

    • Mojeaux

      Pinterest doesn’t allow “gypsy.”

    • DrOtto

      Maybe because it’s Spanish?

    • Grummun

      My perfectly good words are getting called “bonus” words. Torah? Larch? Eat a big one squaredle.

  28. Grummun

    Scorpio: The Tower – *BOOM* AIEEEEE!

    Well, that’s hardly encouraging.

    For my birthday, my wife ordered me cupcakes from Birdies*. If you live in central Ohio, I highly recommend. That lady is Michelangelo with butter creme.

    *tw facebook link

    • Mojeaux

      So, I held my breath waiting for my husband to hear the Christmas music. Took a mite before he noticed, but then đŸ€Ż

      • Grummun

        The wife and I are both good with the Christmas music. There is some eye-rolling about how the movies start earlier every year, but we still watch ’em (in fairness, frequently they are just running on the TV while we’re doing something else). We’ll burn out in early December, and come back to them once Christmas gets close.

      • Mojeaux

        I’m genuinely upset with Hallmark for starting Christmas movies before Thanksgiving. There is just something so earthy and warm about autumn themes.

  29. Ownbestenemy

    With 95.31% of the ballots counted:

    🟣 Javier Milei (LLA): 55.78%
    đŸ”” Sergio Massa (UxP): 44.21%

    Dude didn’t just win, that is a resounding fuck you win.

    • Chafed

      That’s a convincing margin. Particularly in Argentina.

      • R.J.

        Commies can’t cheat their way out of that. Sadly they will fight back other ways


      • Urthona

        I don’t know enough about Argentina or its government to know whether or not this will really amount to a lot.

    • rhywun

      Trump dreams of such numbers. Maybe Biden will similarly fuck up the U.S. so hard that he’ll get them.

      • DrOtto

        Trump’s numbers among blacks and Hispanics has never been as high as they are now. Just reading any of the articles by the legacy media and you know they’re scared because they can’t help but report how the sample size is so small, the polls are probably wrong in the same articles.

      • KSuellington

        It’s gonna be a long 12 months, and anything could happen, but if the Dems stick with BidenHarris, T Dog is gonna walk away with it I think. If you thought the prog tears were flowing in 2016, this would make that look like a pinnacle of restraint and composure.

      • The Last American Hero

        Not chance Trump beats fortified Biden.

  30. Derpetologist

    A Mao Zedong Thought medical team teaches deaf mutes how to say “Long Live Mao”, as they are cursed to never the Chairman’s glorious voice:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IiNo-TKwJM

    • The Hyperbole

      Are you having a stroke?

      • Derpetologist

        No, just thought I’d throw in some grade A derp with a sprinkling of opaque sarcasm.

      • Zwak says the real is not governable, but self-governing.

        Well, he has been credibly accused of being a Hamas spy…

        So, he’s got that going for him, which is nice.

      • Mojeaux

        *snerk*

  31. rhywun

    you are without guidance and/or destiny this week

    *quietly sobs*

  32. LCDR_Fish

    Lot of connectivity issues over drill weekend.

    As I’ve said before, one of the reasons I like NRO is that they do post a lot of commentary that covers opinions not shared by all. (granted this is a guest piece by an outside guy).

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/11/the-u-s-is-courting-unnecessary-risk-in-iraq-and-syria/

    Are the goals the U.S. is seeking to achieve in the region so important that it needs to put American troops in danger?

    Last week, two U.S. F-15 fighter jets bombed a facility in eastern Syria linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Shiite militia proxies it supports. The strike came in response to multiple drone and rocket attacks by Iran-backed militias against U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria. “The President has no higher priority than the safety of U.S. personnel,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wrote in an accompanying press release, “and he directed today’s action to make clear that the United States will defend itself, its personnel, and its interests.”

    But what exactly are those interests? Are they critical to U.S. national security? And are the goals the U.S. is seeking to achieve in Iraq and Syria so important that it needs to sustain a risky troop presence there?

    Ask a senior U.S. official and he will recite the usual talking points: The U.S. is in Iraq and Syria to ensure the enduring, or lasting, defeat of the Islamic State terrorist group. In Iraq, this entails training, advising, and assisting the Iraqi security forces to the point where Baghdad can prosecute what’s left of the counter-ISIS fight on its own. In Syria, the mission is murkier if not ill defined: Destroy the remnants of ISIS, prevent Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad from retaking the eastern oil fields presently controlled by the Kurds, and promote a political resolution to a war deep into its 13th year.

    If we’re honest with ourselves, most of these objectives are either pies in the sky or unimportant in the grand scheme of things. While Assad is a butcher with a French arrest warrant over his head, his forces now control most of Syria’s major cities, airports, key transit routes, all of its ports, and the vast majority of the Syrian population. The armed Syrian opposition lost its foreign patrons long ago and is now co-opted by a jihadist-aligned faction in the northwest. Frankly put: Assad will remain Syria’s dictator for another few decades (health permitting) and has next to no incentive to negotiate with his political enemies, whom he views as traitors deserving death — not fellow countrymen entitled to political concessions. U.S. partners in the region, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates included, have all come to terms with Assad’s staying power, even as U.S. policy on this front remains detached from reality.

    Some argue that the U.S. just can’t afford to leave Syria lest its Kurdish partners are left open to an attack by Turkey, which has demonstrated a strong intent to carve out a 30-mile buffer zone in Syria’s north. Others make the case that U.S. credibility would be severely compromised by a withdrawal. If the U.S. left the Kurds high and dry, the logic goes, U.S. allies around the world would question whether the U.S. is truly committed to their defense.

    But there are two problems with this conventional wisdom. First, Turkey is attacking the Syrian Kurds regardless of U.S.-troop presence in eastern Syria. Turkish forces have reportedly struck Kurdish areas in Syria and Iraq at least 6,000 times since 2018. Turkish aircraft went on a particularly violent spree last month, when infrastructure such as oil fields, factories, and power sources in Kurdish-administered parts of Syria were bombed in retaliation for a suicide bombing in Ankara claimed by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. An armed Turkish drone came within 500 yards of a U.S. base in northeastern Syria, forcing U.S. troops to shoot it down. Four years earlier, U.S. troops in the Syrian border city of Kobani came under fire from Turkish artillery, which some U.S. officials suspect was a deliberate ploy to push them out of the area. In short: U.S. troop presence doesn’t seem to be restraining the Turks.

    What about the credibility argument? Would U.S. credibility be shredded if the U.S. withdrew from Syria?

    Although the so-called credibility thesis is a popular one in the Beltway (and in the media), it’s also wrong. As political-science professor Daryl Press articulated in his seminal work on the subject, Calculating Credibility, a nation’s actions don’t predict how it would respond in a totally different scenario. How the U.S. behaves in Syria doesn’t tell us much about how the U.S. would act in the event of a hypothetical Russian attack on a NATO member or a Chinese missile strike on Japan. Foreign leaders tend to understand that no two situations are exactly alike, and they plan accordingly. Bottom line: Post-withdrawal from Iraq and Syria, U.S. power and influence in the region would likely remain intact.

    Remove all the secondary explanations, and the only legitimate reason for the U.S. to keep troops in Syria is to prevent a re-emergence of the ISIS caliphate. This would make some degree of sense if it wasn’t for the fact that it’s highly unlikely. As the Pentagon’s own special inspector general for the counter-ISIS mission documented recently, leadership losses slowed the group’s ability to plan and execute attacks. ISIS’s financial situation is increasingly perilous because of its lack of control over the population. When ISIS conducts attacks, they are unsophisticated and opportunistic, and they instigate severe counter-strikes from Russia, the Syrian army, and Syrian army–aligned militias. Those counter-ISIS operations would continue, and might even accelerate, if U.S. troops pack up and leave — not as a favor to Washington but because it’d be in the interests of Russia, Assad, the Kurds, and the various militias operating in Syria.

    The Biden administration, therefore, has a fairly simple choice to make. It can do what it’s currently doing, which for all intents and purposes amounts to putting U.S. troops at unnecessary risk (there have been 33 militia attacks against U.S. positions in Syria over the past four weeks, and U.S. retaliatory strikes haven’t done anything to deter them). Or it can eliminate the risk by doing what it should have done when the ISIS caliphate collapsed more than four years ago: Declare mission success and redeploy. The first is a high-cost–low-benefit proposition; the latter is a prudent one.

    • Derpetologist

      You can’t lower your credibility if you don’t have any.

      • juris imprudent

        I think we live by the W.C. Fields school of foreign policy – there’s a sucker born every minute.

  33. rhywun

    Anticlimactic after the other day’s mic drop.

    I played https://squaredle.com/?puzzle=medical:
    211/211 words (+83 bonus words)
    🎯 In the top 33% by accuracy

    • Sean

      😉

  34. Ownbestenemy

    This is who Vivek needs to be, not that dressed up Obama Lite he presents on stage.

    • CPRM

      Khan wearing a 70s bomber jacket?

      • Yusef drives a Kia

        “this is Ceti Alpha Six!”

  35. Derpetologist

    I played https://squaredle.com 11/19:
    65/65 words (+27 bonus words)
    📖 In the top 10% by bonus words

  36. Brochettaward

    I am Brochettaward. I once Firsted four times in one day.

    • UnCivilServant

      Taco Time? But it’s so early.

      • Not Adahn

        Breakfast tacos are one of the many reasons it’s easy to fall in love with Messicans.

  37. Beau Knott

    Good morning all!
    Let’s start the week with some Brian Eno.

    As he might say, it’s Just Another Day.

    New forms of romance from the Bottomliners.

    Share and enjoy!

  38. robodruid

    Good Morning:
    I hope everyone has a peaceful thanksgiving. No drama please, i have had my fill.

    • UnCivilServant

      How are the missus and the animals?

      • robodruid

        Its been an awful struggle.
        First off its been over 3 months since the arrest for indecent exposure. The DA still has not given any discovery. The redacted police report we got ourselves mentions that she was clothed and wearing nipple covers. so we dent know what was “indecent” or “exposed”. Since she cant continue to protest it has been very corrosive on her soul.

        We have discovered that people that represent the builder also do consulting work for the city. Smart on developer but doing that would get us tossed in jail at my job. Also wearing on her. She wont go outside. Does a lot of crying.

        And there is no mental health care thats working.
        I am loosing.

        Animals are all ok. I need to make space for hay in barn and get them ready to hang out there when it gets colder.

      • UnCivilServant

        I’m sorry to hear that. Not sure what I can say that would be of help.

      • robodruid

        There is not much you can really say, its a grave situation. I keep telling her all we need is something to break our way.

    • Gender Traitor

      Good morning, ‘bodru, U, Derpy, Beau, and Sean!

      Best wishes to you, ‘bodru! I hope your wife gets the help she needs, and I hope you’re well lawyered! 😟

      • robodruid

        My lawbill is 65K and counting.

      • juris imprudent

        Yikes, have you reached out to IJ?

        Best wishes to you robo and may The Trial end soon.

        Mornin’ GT, and the rest of ya’ll.

      • Sean

        *falls out of chair*

    • Ghostpatzer

      Rhino:1 Car:0

      Ostriches in the background seemed to be enjoying the show. Do Ostriches eat popcorn?

      Pileated woodpeckers rock. I’ll occasionally spot one in a local park; they are BIG.

  39. Ghostpatzer

    Mornin’, reprobates.

    @robo – sorry for your troubles. Wish I could do more than send well wishes, but here they are FWIW.

    • Gender Traitor

      Good morning, ‘patzie! How is Mrs. P recuperating from her parts upgrade?

      • Ghostpatzer

        Mornin’, thanks.

        So far so good. Thank $deity my youngest is home from school to help. I am under orders not to lift more than 7 lbs. due to hernia, so the spawn are serving as muscle.

      • Gender Traitor

        “Can I get some muscle over here?” 😄

  40. Not Adahn

    Winter Steel season!

    My first match is Sunday at 1:00. And then about every three weeks thereafter.

    If any locals want “real” Steel Challenge, Saraspa is having one Black Friday Morning at 9:00.

    • UnCivilServant

      Maybe I should fish the lever gun out of the Hudson.

      • Not Adahn

        The PCBs are hell on the brass.