Author’s Note: I wrote this in 30 minutes one morning before work and decided I would lightly edit and amend my original thoughts. I figured this was the only way I’d contribute to the site again, so here goes.
Much has been made of the declining economic prospects for the US as a country, but especially the economic prospects or lack thereof for the younger generations. This despite a ‘labor shortage’ and generally aging populace. Thinking in strict supply-demand terms, shouldn’t the supply of labor going down increase worker pay and dilute the power of capital? The younger generations should be relatively rich, why isn’t this happening? Why are boomers seemingly uniquely positioned for success?
One would think that a labor shortage would greatly advantage those providing the labor. I think it can only be explained by government policy and some unique combination of factors. First I am going to postulate some givens:
1. Money just represents stuff, so, it’s a measure of how much stuff you can get.
2. The less stuff available, the more money it will take to get the stuff, all else equal. Or, if you drastically increase the amount of money, you have the same effect.
3. Government has created a lot of money, but it also gives it preferentially to the old (through various schemes, not just transfer payments), many of these older people also have some serious savings from inheritance from the silent generation (who were really good savers, by and large). There is probably, actually a double-sided benefit to the upcoming generation when an older generation is slightly thrifty. Prices stay low (helpful when young as there is a minimum level of expenses one needs to expend to survive) during your earning years, allowing you to live better and save money, then you also inherit that money later. While boomers did experience economic travails, overall, they lived through the greatest economic performance of this country during their prime working years.
4. This just means that olds who are done providing value* are now at an age where they only have a few years left, may as well spend it. My thinking is that all their retirement money plus government funny money is all chasing a smaller, or not rapidly growing pot. Ironically this means that inflation out paces wage gains for the people providing the services required.
5. ???
6. Profit
No really, I haven’t figured out how to profit off of this. Someone must be, but I don’t know who. Speaking with a PT friend who works in a hospital, she (and everyone working with her) just got a 10% raise, the second raise of the year. So, maybe you just want to be in the business of providing services directly to the old. There’s only going to be higher demand for it and no political will at all to reduce that expense. At least not yet.
This is an effect that always occurs, but the effect size is going to be larger today than it was in the past (due to government policy and demographics). Changes in for example productivity can offset this, however there isn’t much evidence for increased productivity ( https://www.axios.com/2023/11/03/productivity-growth-us-economy). And anyway, this dilution of purchasing power of those still working is a drag on what wages would have been with the higher productivity.
https://www.zippia.com/advice/working-age-population/#:~:text=The%20working%2Dage%20population%20in,population%20of%20approximately%20207.4%20million.
Working age population is the lowest it has been since 1970.
Additionally, labor Force participation is at the lowest in a long time (since the 1970’s)
People are also generally less healthy than ever (mind, body, and soul), which may be contributing to the labor Force participation rates. I don’t know what did it in the 70’s. All I know is that the 70’s weren’t great. But they had demographics on their side to some extent, and eventually, better policy.
I don’t think we’re likely to get either. I do think unemployment will stay low long-term (because demand will stay high), but that it won’t result in higher real wages, but strangely, lower real wages.
And now for my spiciest take: the browning of America means lower economic output per person.
Generally the highest earners are:
1. Asians (including Indians)
2. Whites
3. Hispanic
4. Blacks
(https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/11/income-and-wealth-in-the-united-states-an-overview-of-recent-data)
1 and 3 are growing demographics while 2 and 4 are stagnant or declining. The two largest groups are 2 and 3, and 4 is close third, but stagnant. Without changes to this pay distribution (and it seems pretty durable throughout time, the largest change has been that Hispanics have gotten richer as low-skill immigrants now make up a smaller percentage of them) will mean continued economic under performance as higher paid people make up a smaller proportion of the populace.
Why doesn’t Asians growing offset this?
They’re just too small of a group and you can’t import significantly more without compromising the quality of the entrants and driving down the average wage anyway./spice
This ties back into my other interest- the national debt and how this effects economic output. This will be another headwind for economic performance. I don’t think this is the apocalypse, but we will see slower and slower real growth and perhaps even falling standards of living as fewer resources are available per person. To some extent the extreme affluence of the past decades has been a guaranteed short-term effect as we reaped the investments of years past (whether financial or in human capital- children) without adequately replacing those investments. With birth rates cratering in the US and around the world, this effect (reduction in workforce relative to population) will not be going away.
*Since savings is just a representation of past value provided I am unequivocally not saying that people who saved don’t deserve to spend that money later in life, I plan to be one of them, but it does have effects.
Have I told you the story of Rudolph The Red Cocked Firster?
He had generational Firsts.
The redness was due to abrasions.
If you had said that illegal immigration and flooding the country with dirt poor third worlders would lead to lower economic output per person, I’d agree. But I think you are putting the cart before the horse with this argument. The raw demographic data doesn’t mean much here and it’s the quality of the immigrant coming in, which is recognized when discussing Asians (though I think there’s definitely room to up the number of skill entrants there).
It’s not so much the browning as the fact that the browning is the result of a constant influx of illegal immigration from the South. I’d also add there are significant hidden costs to this immigration. These people are bleeding the country dry unlike past waves of immigrants.
“It’s not so much the browning as the fact that the browning is the result of a constant influx of illegal immigration from the South.”
Well, that is the “browning” he refers to, not some hypothetical browning resulting from millions immigrating from somewhere else, so I’m not sure there’s any disagreement here.
Saying it’s just the “browning” can at best lead to errors of miscommunication. It isn’t really the second or third generation immigrants who are the problem here. It’s not good messaging even if we were being charitable to say that the browning itself makes us poorer even if there’s more nuance not communicated behind the statement. People here may assume the best, but you aren’t going to get that benefit of the doubt anywhere else.
It’s the first wavers coming in feeding at the government trough at record rates.
And the younger generation has been sold a line of propaganda on this subject where to oppose it makes you racist. It was sold to them as diversity and inclusion, always some good thing. Bernie was right before he changed his tune out of political expediency. Open borders was a movement started by the mega wealthy who used to feed us the bullshit line that they were just doing jobs Americans didn’t want (something only a wealthy out of touch progressive could believe). When that didn’t work, they stepped it up to racism.
It was accepted by the mainstream of both political parties that those borders would stay open because that’s what the donor classes wanted. Trump came along and created a segment of the GOP that pays lipservice to closing the border, but nothing’s really changed.
Liberty requires some level of open borders. I am gonna True Scotsman this, but you can’t be a libertarian and support closed borders at an extreme level.
My position isnt technically open borders, but is the tall fence, wide gate position. It should be super-easy for anyone to come in legally and really, really dangerous to come in illegally.
I’d argue this is another example of putting the cart before the horse. I’d be stating nothing new here if I said I’d want an open, free market before I had open borders and it wouldn’t entail a shit ton of welfare and government subsidies (something else I didn’t mention above with Kinnath – check the number of immigrants from south of the border who are getting food stamps and free health insurance and then money on top of that every month to buy OTC items and on and on with the government aid that is somehow more difficult for natural citizens to get)f.
I’d take lower wages, too, if I didn’t have to pay taxes, and was then subsidized further by the government with all kinds of goodies. I live in Florida and see this shit daily. They’re nearly all on Medicaid with food stamps. God knows what else they’re getting I’m not aware of.
No country in the history of mankind has opened up its borders and allowed an influx of people who get all the benefits of citizenship with none of the burdens or responsibilities. And no population in history would have tolerated that…until now when the propaganda of diversity and inclusion has trumped all common sense.
Cries of open borders are so premature to even consider in our non-libertarian world that I barely even want to engage in a discussion of it.
“Liberty requires some level of open borders.”
That reminds me: I need to finish up my post that touches on this.
More specifically, I don’t really see much of a conflict between liberty and closed borders (in the sense of, very restrictive immigration laws), to tell you the truth. Why couldn’t a minarchist (thanks for the “monarchist” autocorrect, Apple) society also have very restrictive immigration laws? I’ve never understood that a free country is required to provide its benefits, or even admission, to non-citizens. It may come down to whether you regard a country as a patch of dirt and all the people on it, or as a shared culture/history/sense of identity/etc.
I look at unrestricted immigration the same way I see government money printing. Printing money destroys the value of my money.
Unrestricted immigration destroys the value of my citizenship. Both practices are immoral.
What RC says.
Obviously if we used the same criteria we have for Mexicans as we have for Indians the effect of their demographic to that income mix would be a lot different.
I was doing yard work in my front yard earlier this summer. A brand new Chevy Silverado pulls up. The driver, a 5’6” Mexican guy hops out and hands me his card.
It was then I realized the landscaping guy had a better truck than me.
South Park did it.
More than once.
They took my jerb!
Interesting thoughts. My only question “is there really a labor shortage?” The West isn’t having as many children, but the US receives a tremendous amount of immigration which compensates for this birth decline.
There is labor shortages in white collar fields, but less so in blue collar professional jobs (construction, plumbing, etc.). Immigration probably explains why there isn’t a shortage in these well paying, low education, professions.
American immigration is entirely focused on importing low-skilled labor. It’s nearly impossible to immigrate here if you have no family, regardless of your skill set. Seems like to correct the shortage of jobs in white collar professions, they’ll just start skills based immigration. And then we’ll see lawyers and doctors opposing new immigrants instead of laborers.
When skills based immigration starts, it will no longer be “racist” to oppose immigration, because it will be the rich complaining. American immigration is entirely an obvious class conflict. When the dominant class is threatened (instead of benefiting under the current system), stigmas previously assigned to that position will disappear. Much like “my body, my choice” disappeared from the American lexicon during vax mandates
“There is labor shortages in white collar fields, but less so in blue collar professional jobs (construction, plumbing, etc.).”
I would say we have way too many people in white collar fields, which have expanded greatly to employ the ever-expanding supply of otherwise useless college grads. A shrinking of the white collar workforce (at least in some sectors) would be a net boon, in the long run.
The only real labor shortages I have heard about are in the blue collar area, from skilled to unskilled.
A shrinking of the white collar workforce (at least in some sectors) would be a net boon,
agreed
I will take this one step further. The past 40 years there has been an explosion of “management” in white collar positions rather than skilled workers performing actual field-related work. It is blocking success and achievement in white collar fields like a fat guy blocks the aisle in an airplane.
^^this^^^
B schools have been a disaster.
The (at least they used to be called) pink collar jobs have a big shortage. The girlfriend has had people go through the interview process, accept the job, and then no call/no show.
There’s a lot of bloat in “white collar” labor markets. You have corporations with entire departments that seem more like daycare for the children of the rich and privileged (looking at the tech sector here specifically).
I think Twitter is the best example of this, at least publicly. The fact that Musk was able to cull, what, 50% of that workforce with zero ill effects is telling.
We don’t need more software engineers. We need more HVAC techs.
XX drives a forklift. She can go to any dock in the city and make bank. She went to a job fair and they flat-out asked her if she was willing to work 60 hours a week (hard pass), and she took that as being bad management, so she was scared off. I had to explain to her that paying 20 hours of overtime to 2 people was much cheaper than employing a third person because of all the hidden costs of employing someone.
XY just didn’t want to go into the trades at all. Why, I don’t really understand because he’s a very hard worker. I tried to get him to consider it, but nope. Hard pass.
She went to a job fair and they flat-out asked her if she was willing to work 60 hours a week (hard pass), and she took that as being bad management, so she was scared off. I had to explain to her that paying 20 hours of overtime to 2 people was much cheaper than employing a third person because of all the hidden costs of employing someone.
Name your price Mojeaux Jr.
I misread that at first, I thought you were making Mojeaux an offer to buy her daughter.
“send picture of boat and motor.”
How much for the little girl?
That was apparently where that recruiter was. She just couldn’t stomach 60 hours a week.
20 hours of time-and-a-half every work would pile up the cash pretty quickly.
I would have sucked it up at that age but that’s me. Wonder if it was 12-hour days M-F or 10-hour days M-S.
After his lawnmower fiasco, I’d assume he was a natural mechanic or machinist.
I was hoping, but he wasn’t that interested. There are just going to be sooooo many market gaps when GenX tradesmen start retiring/dying (e.g., car mechanics).
“It’s nearly impossible to immigrate here if you have no family, regardless of your skill set.”
The millions of young single men who have immigrated here under the current administration beg to disagree. In fact, they have had a much easier time immigrating here than people with families and skills who have taken a different, more bureaucratic, approach. And yes, they have immigrated here. They are living here, pretty much indefinitely, regardless of what their bureaucratic status is.
One of the local news stations was at the border last week. They had a shot of a few “families” with kids, and then turned and panned across a long line stretching into the distance of young, single men. What you typically see in the Narrative Media is a closeup of those few families, but that is, typically, a gross misrepresentation of what is going on.
I think it’s a statement of fact that, unlike most Western nations, the US has a “family based” immigration system versus the “skills based” immigration system you see in Canada and the UK.
Actually, I have never heard anyone argue that is just as easy to immigrate to the US based on skills and not family connections as it is in Western Europe.
As the son of immigrants, I have literally never met anyone who came here without family ties.
I worked with two. One was from Belgium and got his citizenship while I worked with him. He was married to an American, but that was after he moved here. It might have helped in the green card->citizenship path.
The other was an Indian (dot) on an H-1B. No family ties, he just wanted to live in the US.
I too work with quite a few H-1B employees, including some that were terrified that Trump was going to kick them all out when he became president. But my understanding is H-1B doesn’t provide a path to becoming a permanent resident, let alone a citizen.
The H1-B shit is blatantly immoral for all parties, but especially for the immigrant. It’s basically indentured servitude under a different name.
If someone can come over here and support themselves with their own skills, I’m all for that. I don’t think it’s particularly libertarian to argue for an influx of non-skilled labor that is highly subsidized by the government to benefit the upper classes and to generate more consumerism.
An H-1B visa is a dual-intent non-immigrant visa. It means that an American company (presumably the one where a foreigner works) can sponsor the worker for a Green Card while he is working on an H-1B visa. It’s true that having an H-1B visa doesn’t give the visa holder a right to apply for a Green Card. But most foreigners who receive Green Cards as employment-based immigrants have an H-1B visa during their immigration process.
A good friend is from India as is working on an H1B visa. He has been here for years and must wait many more years to get a green card.
One of his friends is from Sri Lanka. She has been here less time and already has a visa, because there are quotas based on nationality.
There is no shortage of people in India that want to come here on H1Bs.
— already has a green card —
Wow! The vast majority of international students, at least graduate students, come to the US without family ties. If they decide to stay in the US–and many do–they will become immigrants without family ties. Sure, some of them may marry a US citizen but many don’t.
You are talking about legal immigration. RC Dean is talking about people just walking across the border.
It’s nearly impossible to immigrate here if you have no family, regardless of your skill set.
Waves hand.
Sometimes people say things so wrong it’s hard to believe.
The answer is that socialism is rotting the country from the inside. Immigrants are coming to take advantage of that. They aren’t causing it.
Instead of blaming immigrants, people should blame their elected leaders for selling out their voters. Immigrants, legal or not, are just following incentives
I’d love to see a study on attitudes towards welfare broken up by citizenship status and even race.
I’d like to think there’s still some stigma attached in the culture of white and Asian Americans to taking that shit, but I may be navie.
Europe is full of white welfare leaches, and if you count most government and NGO employees in that crowd – and I do – oh boy there’s a lot
Yup. Italy and other European countries have universal basic income now. They’re not giving that to some Ethiopian.
I have never met any immigrant who was on welfare or did not have a very negative attitude toward people on welfare.
You need to divide legal and illegal immigrants into two different camps. It’s a different group of people entirely.
I don’t disagree. But, illegal immigrants are here, because politicians want them here. There are zero illegal immigrants in Hungary, because the Hungarian government doesn’t hate its own people
“Since savings is just a representation of past value provided”
Not entirely, I don’t think. The deposits in your savings from your paycheck, certainly. But for my savings, at least, that’s not where the majority of it came from. The majority of my balance/net worth is investment returns on that surplus from my paychecks.
I think the issue with a shrinking/stagnant workforce is that it is a drag on productivity. To oversimplify: each worker produces X; fewer workers mean less X. Technology can mask this to some degree, but technology means each worker can produce more X, so the drag from having fewer workers is still there.
Of course, this is worsened as take-home pay is cannibalized to give more and more welfare (politely called “entitlements”), as this results in lower real pay. Paying people less has never, to my knowledge, increased their productivity.
‘Not entirely, I don’t think. The deposits in your savings from your paycheck, certainly. But for my savings, at least, that’s not where the majority of it came from. The majority of my balance/net worth is investment returns on that surplus from my paychecks.’
You don’t think that providing capital to businesses is a provision of value?
‘I think the issue with a shrinking/stagnant workforce is that it is a drag on productivity. To oversimplify: each worker produces X; fewer workers mean less X. Technology can mask this to some degree, but technology means each worker can produce more X, so the drag from having fewer workers is still there.’
100% agree, I hope that came across in my article, but possibly it didn’t as I tried to write it fast, rather than good. 😛
‘Of course, this is worsened as take-home pay is cannibalized to give more and more welfare (politely called “entitlements”), as this results in lower real pay. Paying people less has never, to my knowledge, increased their productivity.’
Exactly. Some of the those entitlements will soon include SS, etc. as the aging populace draws more from those accounts than they put in.
It appears to me “increased productivity” is concentrated in mostly useless activity.
Somebody not long ago brought up a Drucker quote which has been rattling around in my head for a while: the one about being studiously efficient at performing work which should not be done at all is the height of wastefulness.
That is part of what concerns me. How much real value is produced at a bank? :/
The only real labor shortages I have heard about are in the blue collar area, from skilled to unskilled.
We have been hearing stories for decades about the lack of skilled “blue collar” workers in the pipeline. Meanwhile, the government school system has been all in on college college college. How many sociology or education majors does it take to
digfill a ditch?How big is the ditch?
The volume of the average human body is around 2.25 cubic feet, so you can work from there.
Instead of blaming immigrants, people should blame their elected leaders for selling out their voters. Immigrants, legal or not, are just following incentives
As are the politicians.
As I used to say at our annual meeting to set incentive metrics for the coming year, “inside every incentive is a perverse incentive trying to get out”.
stolen
Yeah, but politicians should not be afforded the same courtesy as a human being. That’s all I’m saying
This ties back into my other interest- the national debt and how this effects economic output.
You can’t think funding government giveaways with interest free loans has an adverse effect on the economy, can you, Shirley?
i think the bigger the nation the harder it is to have a strict pints system immigration system like the kangaroo people
It certainly isn’t going to happen when you lay down the welcome mat for people to flood your gigantic southern border illegally.
I dunno, Canada doesn’t have the problems we have here, at least on on this scale.
I’m not knowledgeable enough about Russia to say for sure, but I don’t think they are having particular issues, maybe in a few areas?
Russia has a lot of migrants from Central Asia. There are definitely tensions between them and the locals.
Yes, but I understood that they’re wanted and legal. No?
Most of them work as low-skilled laborers. I guess they are wanted in that capacity doing things Russians don’t want to do. But probably not in terms of cultural differences. Can’t say much about their legal status. But I haven’t heard that illegal migrants were a problem.
Thanks for clarifying. I believe the discussion was about the ability to implement a strict immigration system, and by extension (in my mind) the extent of illegal immigration.
There are many different factors driving out current economic malaise.
They are all tied together via a web of cultural influences, but no single issue is the one true cause.
In no particular order:
1)The great society turned huge chunks of the population into a permanent drag on the economy.
2) The destruction of the black family with the associated punishment for anyone acting “white”.
3) Union labor strangling the golden goose resulting in the increase of off-shoring and automation.
4) Constant warfare draining the economy of goods and services.
5) The destruction of the public education system and the focus on participation awards over real academic progress.
6) The further conversion of the public education system into public indoctrination boot camps.
7) The fracturing of culture into countless splinter groups and the normalization of degenerate behavior.
8) The marriage of government and media.
9) Social media.
And there are too many to actually count them all.
these are not US specific but worldwide irrespective of the great society and the destruction of the black family, and it’s flavors of neomarxist crap all the way down.
funny thing: the spellcheck tells me neomarxist is not a word and recommends only one possible correction “monetarist”
Dark skinned immigrants walking across the southern border are not the problem. They are a symptom of the problem.
Yes. Blaming South Americans is putting the cart before the horse
I will continue to blame the individuals who game the system regardless of the fact the system was put in place by others. There’s enough blame to go around, I feel.
And they are gaming the system every step of the way.
I’m sure there are those who abuse the system and illegal immigrants, by their very nature have gamed the system.
As I’ve gotten older, though, I’ve come to care less about the welfare queen making $1,500 each month when we have giant corporations that incentivize illegal immigration while sustaining themselves on rent-seeking and blatant welfarism.
I’m not saying they’re a problem.
Every working person is an added benefit in some sense (so long as we aren’t paying their way). I want more goods and services so my price for things goes down.
We also shouldn’t expect that they will live and work the same way as natives. Even within European ethnic groups in América there are significant wage differences between the average person of English descent and Scottish descent. This is often hundreds of years down the line from when they arrived here. People are not interchangeable so we should set realistic expectations for what the economic outlook may be with a different population mix.
3) unions are a red herring. The labor movement in this country was never really significant except for a brief period and has always been reactive, unlike many other countries. Some industries had high rates of unionization but the same factors affected non union companies and industries. Laser printers aren’t manufactured in Boise any more.
3) unions are a red herring.
Disagree. Oh well.
Emotionally speaking, savings is hope for a future.
People who blow their paychecks on expensive shoes and such know that the bills will always be there and they’re used to juggling which ones to pay on alternating months. If paid on time all the time, the bills will eat up ALL the money forever. But will the money always be there for the expensive shoes? No.
Now, we can argue that nobody needs expensive shoes. That is true. But if you get NO wants at all, ever, because the lights have to be paid, that’s completely and totally demoralizing and then you start asking yourself, “Why am I here?” There MUST be some enjoyment to be had. (Yes, yes, family, 0-dollar activities, whatever.)
MOST people aren’t going to save because they have nothing left over after bills to save. Not even high-income earners because they’ve got that house-rich, cash-poor mcmansion to pay for, along with their car notes and whatever other toys they buy on credit or their student loans for an English major because somebody sold them the dream. Or, like me, they bought a POS house on a loan they didn’t understand without paying for an independent inspection. What you’re after then is just plain discipline to either not buy shit you don’t need. Again, the bills are always going to be there.
And now add inflation to the mix, which the gummint doesn’t measure food, gas, and clothes and call it good.
So anyway, all that is to say, there’s a reason people buy shit they don’t need and juggle bills, and that is because a) they’re just plain short-sighted and/or b) they have no hope for the future.
We also have a government that has for decades incentivized borrowing and penalized saving. My mom and dad loved high interest rates in the 70s and 80s because they had money in the bank. Back then a savings account was an investment. We have an entire generation used to spend, spend, spend because borrowing has been so cheap.
I would add to that, they’re doubling down by trying to tax “unrealized gains”.
Oh yes! I remember when I was a child, my dad showed me how compound interest worked. I couldn’t do the math yet, but I got the concept because I had a bank book.
Anyway, now that we DO have savings, I’m re-learning that joy and I keep praying interest rates keep going up.
I remember when I was a young lad with a paper route and my parents forced me to get a savings account. It had an interest rate of 5.75%.
I’m getting hit with offers now for high yield savings accounts that are offering less than that.
Yep. I do SmartyPig and they pay the most I’ve seen, but still less than 5.75%. When I was a child, I believe the interest rate was somewhere around 12-15%, but that was 50 years ago, so here’s a salt shaker.
Capital One is 4.35% for savings and 5.25% for CDs currently.
Oh, I’m getting 4.25% on SmartyPig. Hm.
I’m not going to touch CDs for now. Right now, I need liquidity more than I need an extra 1%.
Barclays is also 4.35%
There’s also a brokerage account with T-bills. No state tax either.
I’m not going to tell where I put my money, but, it is more than 4.35%. Wouldn’t want to drive their rate down. 😛
Anecdotes are not data . . . .
The crew of Nicaraguans that replaced my roof last June were fast, efficient, and very considerate. They did great work.
The crew that did the siding (comprised by one Mexican and several tattooed white guys) were a mixed bag. The Mexican was excellent. He out performed the three white guys by a mile.
I can’t imagine the Spanish-speaking guys came in on H1B visas, to I expect they walked across the border in the not too distant past.
I am glad they are here.
What you don’t see – the guys who maybe would have become roofers if the pay wasn’t driven down massively by immigrants.
So, yea, you are white collar even if not super wealthy. You benefit from the current system.
the guys who maybe would have become roofers if the pay wasn’t driven down massively by immigrants.
Bullshit. Those guys just don’t exist anymore. Labor costs still way up compared to 18 years ago when I built the house.
The Nicaraguans are filling a hole. They’ve only be here since the derecho in 2020. They didn’t put people out of work.
If can’t find white skilled labor in Iowa to do construction, the country as a whole is fucked.
We have white collar professionals and call center geeks. Industry has been in serious decline. The middle class is not producing young men that want to do physical labor.
People born into the middle class aren’t interested in entering labor fields that don’t provide a middle class lifestyle back in return. Film at 11.
Of course, some of those low-skilled jobs did provide a middle class lifestyle before the influx of illegals. And funny enough, people took the jobs. You sound like a prog denying the basic laws of economics here.
I would readily admit that there is some stigma attached to physical labor, but its a negative feedback loop because of who has come to dominate those trades and what pay they are willing to accept to do the jobs.
It is interesting. Since being in the military, I’ve gotten a lot more interest than when I was growing up (overseas admittedly due to parents missionary work, etc) – in skilled work. Unfortunately despite going through TAPS multiple times in the military, I didn’t even find out about the Newport News Apprentice School until 2018 or so – would have been a pretty good match in 2008 or even 2016. I still have some interest in welding, but I don’t think my body’s holding up as well as I’d like – and I have transitioned to a more service-oriented aspect with my navy inspection support – which is allowing me more cross-training opportunities and chances to get down in the weeds with some systems that I never saw on active duty.
My dad is a painter. He’s old at this point. He’s losing jobs to illegals who come in as a group and do the same work for about a third of the price because they have completely different priorities. But those guys don’t exist because you say so, Kinnath.
They drive down wages across the entirety of the low-skilled labor market. It’s simple supply and demand, and the fact that they are going to be working off the books. They do it in corporations and small businesses. They aren’t really subject to US labor laws like minimum wages. And yea – they’re fine living in a shack with five other dudes and sending as much money back home as they can.
When I was in Arizona, illegals were absolutely driving skilled white guys out of jobs.
They are filling a void here in Iowa.
Labor is worth what people will pay for it, not what people want to charge for it.
Unions in Iowa learned this lesson the hard way in the 80s when packing plants closed all over the place.
Sorry about your dad, but tough shit.
My grandfather was a painter. His wife worked the line at Rath Packing. My other grandfather and several uncles worked the line at John Deere.
I was a printer for a decade. Went home from work with ink-stained hands ever day.
I still have little sympathy for people that expect their jobs and pay rates are guaranteed. The economy changes some people benefit and some people get fucked.
I’m not looking for sympathy for anyone anymore than you are looking for validation on who you choose to do business with.
But you have things mixed up. Wages aren’t determined by what people are willing to pay. At least not alone. It’s about what they have to pay. What someone will take to do a job is part of that factor and that is highly influenced by how many people there are looking to do said work. Supply and demand impacts the cost of labor just like everything else.
And if we had free markets, you may have more of a leg to stand on. But you don’t have a free market. You have a market where the government has puts its grimy little fingers on all of the buttons here. You can’t create labor laws and minimum wages and demand one guy pay taxes while allowing in a flood of illegals with whom none of those things apply. You especially can’t do this just for low skilled laborers which is the system currently in place.
It is, as stated above by others as well, a system designed to fuck over the lower classes while favoring the upper classes and to some extent the middle. IE you. I am perfectly willing to accept there will be winners and losers in a free market.
If there were a free market, I suspect you’d be the one losing out here on your cheap labor.
Supply and demand impacts the cost of labor just like everything else.
The discussion ends here.
cheap labor.
The job certainly wasn’t cheap. The contract cost an arm and a leg. The general contractor may have gotten a benefit, but he didn’t pass it on to me.
Or you are asking the citizen to work under the table which creates it’s own problems.
And this is what was said above, this is a class thing. The white collar people benefit from the cheap labor, but you’d see a completely different tune from most of them if it was their wages being depressed by cheap skilled labor (of which we could import much more, I’d wager).
None of this shit is under the table. The crews are scheduled back to back to back to back for jobs. It took months to get the crew to get started on the house.
If you want to do construction work, there are jobs waiting for you in Iowa.
Hah. My F500 uses illegals for janitorial work that was once done in house by employees and then by native Americans. They just use a couple layers of contractors so it’s whitewashed and say they don’t know. And every layer of contractors gets a cut. The trades often aren’t much different.
Assuming you are correct, the benefit of lower costs to the consumers is greater than the disbenefit to the roofer.
Same for tariffs.
Its a classic seen and unseen. You are trying to do it, but referencing the unseen roofer, but arent considering the unseen roof purchasers.
Read more Bastiat!
I’m not here to weigh the net benefit to society, a nebulous concept to begin with and something no one can really measure. I want a level playing field for labor in a market which doesn’t exist because the government has tilted the scales entirely in one way.
It’s not my place to say that we’d be so much better off if there were more middle class jobs as opposed to more cheap labor. But it isn’t your place, either, and it sure as shit isn’t the government’s place to game the system in favor of one class of people over another.
“the benefit of lower costs to the consumers is greater than the disbenefit to the roofer.”
Why is a dollar worth more in the pocket of a customer than a roofer?
“ It’s not my place to say that we’d be so much better off if there were more middle class jobs as opposed to more cheap labor.”
I’ll say it. A society with a robust middle class is healthier than one that is a barbell, with the wealthy on one end, a large subsistence class on the other, and hardly anyone in between.
‘I’ll say it. A society with a robust middle class is healthier than one that is a barbell, with the wealthy on one end, a large subsistence class on the other, and hardly anyone in between.’
This is very true. It creates a large group of people with a say, but without a huge say. People who understand and benefit from the country making prudent choices, the old yeoman farmer trope maybe, but I think there is truth to it.
I guy I met at a wedding in Mexico earlier this year is building a house on the Pacific coast of Mexico in Nayarit. He says it’s impossible to get good reliable labor there because all the good workers moved up here already.
And now add inflation to the mix, which the gummint doesn’t measure food, gas, and clothes and call it good.
Buy today. It will only cost more tomorrow.
I hope everyone got their 2023 ammo orders in.
To be honest, I have more ammo than I need unless there is a true shit hits the fan scenario. In that case, no amount of ammo is enough.
Another case of 00 incoming. Allofasudden, Federal FliteControl is everywhere. Still not cheap, but you can get it. I don’t think I’ve seen the 8 pellet, though.
I should probably score another case of 5.56, though. I think we’re down to less than 2,000 rounds.
The 70s say hello.
Lesson from the late 70s and early 80s. If there is something on the shelf that you will need eventually, and you have money in your pocket, buy it now cause it will cost more next week.
Lesson from 2020-2021. If there is something on the shelf that you will need eventually, and you have money in your pocket, buy it now cause it might not be there next week.
My garage is full of non-perishable goods right now. Tough to explain it to my kids. I’m not hoarding, I’m doing risk management.
Can you explain it to my wife? QQ
So, today is XY’s 18th birthday. I have no more tax deductions.
Happy birthday XY!
I though 18 was when you Americans started charging rent so that is some money if he still lives with you
It’s mid-month. We decided not to pro-rate this month’s rent. He starts Jan 1.
If my kids were going to school full time, there would be no rent charged. When he goes to MSU next fall, he will no longer be paying rent.
MSU – how good is the football team?
Not very. It’s a small state regional college that has grown a lot. It used to be called Southwest Missouri State University. They have at outperformed in men’s and women’s basketball (my aunt who lived near campus was an avid smsu basketball fan).
He got a full ride scholarship because certain circumstances reasons I don’t really want to go into. But anyway, he did. So room, board, books, tuition, everything. Right now he’s working to buy a car and insurance, because he is CERTAINLY not going to be on ours.
A number of family members have attended/taken classes and some even graduated from MSU.
also happy birthday XY. weird name that.
give him a shot of coffee just to be wild for once
He’s from Moj’s first marriage to Elon.
So he’s paying rent starting today?
No, we cut him a break for this month. He starts Jan 1.
Reddit totally hates on parents who charge rent, but he’s working more than full time and makes good money. XX only works part-time because she wants to keep the status quo (and she’s scared to go out of her comfort zone), but she makes as much as XY.
WAGE GAP!!!!
Redditors are lazy socialist bums. Charge away.
My dad always told me he was going to charge rent after I graduated from high school and didn’t go to college. I moved out the morning I turned 18, before he actually laid it down. I figured if I was going to pay rent, I’d have my own place and my own rules. Worked out well for me. Not so much for a younger sibling who lived at home into his twenties.
He couldn’t hope to rent even a room at what we’re charging him. The rental market is just a shit situation for everybody.
He will also pay 1/4 of the utilities.
However, we feed him unless he wants take-out or something he just feels like buying and then he’s on his own. And we provide his health insurance, although he will be responsible for his copays and his scrips.
Remember The Fall Guy!? You do!? That means it needs a REEEBOOOT MOVIE!!! You’ll love it! CONSUME HOLLYWOOD PRODUCT!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dj9ev40C30M&t=58s
That is seared – seared! – into my memory.
I had forgotten Markie Post was in that show.
No.
Also lost in this discussion – the number of Trump supporting guys in the trades who have their own businesses who hire the illegals. I have a big fuck you to them, too, for their hypocrisy. And they exist in large numbers. I get that they have to do it to stay competitive, but these guys can’t claim to have any actual principles.
Someone who hews to honor gets the short end of the stick always.
Agreed. Ethics and principles are in extremely short supply nowadays.
Now do all the Trump supporters who hire the guys who hire the illegals.
What about the guys who hire illegals to vote for Trump?
How do I know before I hire them?
Speaking of the economy, has anyone mentioned the curious case of Powell contradicting himself within two weeks?
I haven’t even seen the WSJ defend his statements as anything other than politics
OT. Wanted to post this last night but my POS laptop is just killing me (just got refurbished replacement delivered today – thumbs crossed that it’s completely clean (via newegg) – will need to scrub with Malwarebytes, etc – maybe a new VPN to replace Nord unless it works better on this new machine…any other tips for a “refurbished” replacement?).
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/netanyahus-mistake-was-being-too-dovish-on-hamas-not-too-hawkish/
This from the same publication that called opponents of the Iraq War “Unpatriotic Conservatives”. Pat Buchanan really should gloat about that more.
Why doesn’t National Review mention that Netanyahu helped create Hamas to undermine support for the secular and multi-denominational PLO?
It’s weird how Israeli publications will mention that, but National Review pretends like history began last month.
Every Single Job in a Michelin-Starred Kitchen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkQ50oXPQ4A
restaurant people work long hours
I wonder how long the above average rates for Asians will continue as they asimílate into American culture. Already I see locally the children of boat people becoming typical leftist parasites.
Were the boat people typically high earners? My gut says ‘no’.
Millions of people lost their jobs to technology.
Millions of people lost their jobs to off-shoring.
Millions of people lost their jobs to illegal immigrants.
So what. Those are all slow motion train wrecks. Get off the train and don’t ride it to the bitter end. If you can’t, oh well.
In theory, that is true. In reality, no one loses their job if the company
is politically well connected. Saying “tough luck, people lose jobs for all sorts of reasons” does assuage the anger of an unemployed factory worker watching another bank getting bailed out and management facing no consequences.
I highly suspect Kinnath would speak differently if we were importing more skilled labor in whatever field he’s in and he was asked to take a pay cut. Even though that’s the sort of immigration we actually should be fine with because those people aren’t a net drain on the economy.
The politicians care about buying votes and greasing the economic numbers. It’s about driving consumerism at all costs. And with regards to this particular subject, their fingerprints are all over it tilting the scales one way. He doesn’t want to admit that.
Wages are just something an employer or customer decides to pay, obviously.
fucking server errors
of course that goes through
I lived through the 70s and80s in Iowa. I lost my job like 10s of thousands of other guys. My wife and I lived in poverty (while raising two kids) to get degrees. Like I said, I have little sympathy for people overcome by economic upheaval.
And Bro. Go fuck yourself. Megacorp has been offshoring work for decades. When offshoring was less than successful, megacorp just brought in tons of H1B engineers. My salary has certainly been kept lower because of this.
This is life. I told people as far back as the middle 90s, they better be good and working with global partners and learn how to manage remote work teams cause that was the only way to ensure that you stay working.
My medical transcription job (fairly specialized skilled language-based job) went offshore because, as one of my bosses said, “If you’re going to get crap, you might as well get cheap crap.” The US transcriptionists were just phoning it in, so people went elsewhere for much cheaper. So, but then SOME of it was SO bad, it came back, but the fees remained depressed from the offshoring. Now we’re going AI, and I’ve been asked to help train an AI MT engine. The profession is a shell of its former self.
In 1982, I worked for a company that made lithograpic print plates for four-color printing operations. It was a time consuming job to use massive cameras and filters to separate images into four sets of negatives then use those negatives to burn plates.
The first laser color scanners came out in 81 or 82. They destroy the film/baste four-color separation business in a matter of years. Four-color laser printers followed close behind.
And a scanner could be anywhere in the world. The data could be sent where ever it was needed to make negatives to create plates or to laser printers directly.
The good new for me was that I was only 25 when it happened.
I don’t think many here are opposed to the idea of creative destruction.
But Kinnath is handwaving away government fuckery that fucks over the lower classes because he benefits from it.
He also is taking a needlessly pro-employer attitude. Pay is always a negotiation r compromise of some kind. Saying that wages are just what the employer will pay is asinine because it’s a two way street. When you allow in a flood of illegals not subject to labor laws and subsidize them further with welfare, you are tilting the scales in favor of one side. And it’s not really the side that needs the scales tilted their way to begin with because they’re already well off.
I just want an even playing field. I try to avoid being reflexively anti–anything. It’s not my place to make value judgements for others. I want an open, level playing field where things are left to be sorted out by actual market forces.
He also is taking a needlessly pro-employer attitude.
No I’m not. I am vehemently opposed to artificial constraints on the labor supply. Fuck people that expect the government to protect their jobs by tipping the scales in favor of unions or by preventing skilled labor from moving to where the jobs are.
I have never argued in favor of illegal immigration. I have always been for tall fences and wide gates. I do not think that preventing immigrants from flooding the market with cheap labor is a valid excuse to limit immigration.
And it’s been pretty clear that I’ve been talking about illegal immigration in all of my posts. Though, again, your cheap labor isn’t really that cheap and is being subsidized in other ways.
Enforcing your laws isn’t artificially restricting any labor supply.
Yeah, not even remotely true. My company get hit with files and expensive legal bills because of 2 employees (out of ~4000) that were illegals (probably*) and violating labor laws.
*after the shit hit the fan, they disappeared, so don’t know for sure. But they were underage and using fake ids. Probably illegal aliens too.
I don’t really know what to tell you. The black market for labor is massive in places like California, Florida, and Texas. And those people are getting benefits from the government.
Your company got dinged. There are many corporations and small businesses employing them on and off the books.
Get off the “having-a-job” train? Without capital to set up your own business, I think that means getting on the “be-a-welfare-leech” train.
Get off the “having-a-job” train?
Saw lots of middle-aged men lose their jobs in the 80s. Their choice was to sell everything (probably at a loss) and move from Iowa to Texas (or some other sun belt state) and start over. Instead they waited until the total collapse of their industries and then become welfare leaches or the sold everything at horrendous losses and moved to the sun belt.
My point was, it was obvious what was happening. And it took years and years for the end to come.
Sometimes life gives bad choices. Don’t wait until you are offered worse choices.
There is a reason I wound up in Phoneix in 85. The “good” news is that I had nothing to lose.
The rational actor (in economic terms) is going to take the free money.
Thanks, Lack. I appreciate you taking the time and making the effort.
And now… to read the article.
Lower real wages are not happening. Any hire I take on this year will get 20% more than the one I hired last year. Individual contributor wages are now in manager territory. Meanwhile, my wages stagnate. I may be leaving soon. If I could go somewhere are get a 20% pay raise or better, I may not care so much about job happiness and security anymore.
Yeah. Hiring sucks in Biden’s America.
I did score one new hire last week, but had two others leave. I have another set to start next week, which means I’ll have gained no ground.
#%$@
Also, due to new rules, I cannot list educational experience as a bar. Not even GED. And I am hiring for senior process improvement engineers. Now I don’t have a bachelors either, but I do insist on at least a GED or high school equivalent. Next I will not be able to ask about experience. Just hire any old nose picker and deal with it.
Are they leaving for higher paying jobs or just slackers?
One is going to school and the other is chasing “greener pastures”. New employer made him quit with no notice. Good luck working for someone like that who forces you to burn bridges. Thing is that I was paying him exactly what he asked for too. *shrug*
‘Lower real wages are not happening… . Meanwhile, my wages stagnate.’
So, you’re not getting lower real wages? Let me tell you that the purchases the young set of people need to make (housing especially) has experienced really high inflation.
That discussion about saving and interest rates above brings back memories. When Colorado started their lottery in the late ’70s or early ’80s guys I knew would talk about what they’d do if they won a million bucks. One popular plan was, “I’d put it in the bank and live on the interest.”
Up until a few months ago, the interest on a million bucks was about what you could make wrangling shopping carts at Walmart. Not exactly the lap of luxury.
Next I will not be able to ask about experience. Just hire any old nose picker and deal with it.
Put all the applicants in the randomizer and hire whoever it spits out.
NYT headline I just saw…
Federal government trying o force Starbucks to reopen stores they closed.
Go, Brandon, Go!
NY Post has it without a paywall.
https://nypost.com/2023/12/14/business/starbucks-may-be-forced-to-reopen-23-stores-after-union-flap-feds/
Get fucked.
Good post, Lack. You set up one of the more focused and interesting discussions we’ve had in awhile.
Late to the party. Thanks to Lack and all the contributors. As I read through the comments I kept trying to put my own experiences into some kind of perspective. Not sure how I would fit in, in today’s marketplace.
I was fortunate to find a place that needed someone with a few skills and a good work ethic.