For your listening pleasure, especially Mike S. Cygnus X-1 has a similar structure to novae systems after all, so relevant.
Once again, I was listening to a podcast, ranting and raving, so much I had to actually comment on the podcast site. When I finished, I realized that it might be appropriate for an article here, with some added material, fleshing out – I don’t have a 3000 character limit here, I can let it all hang out and be my verbose self! This was once again a Darkhorse podcast, specifically this one. I know nothing about Ben Davidson, but it looks to be an interesting set of topics – magnetic pole reversals, solar storms, potential for grid damage etc, spurred by the high intensity sequence of solar flares we experienced recently. While the content does have the potential to be interesting (and impactful), I found myself on more than one occasion thinking ‘loon’. So once again, here’s a translation of my ranting at the TV/computer about a podcast into a, hopefully, more useful form. In following, I’ve put the comment I posted to the Darkhorse forum in italics and interspersed comments and clarifications in between.
Been a long time listener [Of the DH podcast], just became financial supporter on Thursday – figured I should pay for some of the content I enjoy [side eyes Paypall and Zelle, hopes for P.O. box but will break down and use one of those soon]. I started as a supporter on the day of release of what was a complete miss, substance wise.
There seemed to be a lot of unsupported assertions and plausibility (barely) and false analogies. I’m not dismissing pole reversal, weakening magnetic fields, galactic fields and electrical currents, nor the idea that earth’s climate and history is predominantly influenced by the thermonuclear reactor in the sky. But is was put together in a hodgepodge fashion to create a narrative – it was too generous to call it a ‘model’ let alone one with predictive power.
Through out the discussion, there was always this edge of taking valid ideas and physical properties/processes and, by analogy, linking them to the guest’s ‘theories’. But the connection was completely superficial, analogous only in the sense of “I heard this once, I don’t really understand it, but it sounds superficially like this thing I want to put forward” – I tend to dislike the phrase, but ‘a little (too little) knowledge can be a dangerous thing’. Hence the ‘false analogies’ above. So I focused on a single aspect of that trend, specifically the ‘micro nova’ – a term by the way that was never defined.
Just as a single point before I hit the word limit – the continual referral to ‘micro-nova’ and the seeming idea that accretion of galactic material onto the sun creates periodic micro-nova events, followed by the bizarre suggestion – I think this argument was made; there was a lot of vagueness and hand-waving – that these events could explain isotopic anomalies.
The squiggly stuff in the white dwarfs Roche lobe represents the material accreted from the secondary, either directly onto the white dwarf through the disk or magnetic field lines or stored in the disk with a periodic dumping onto the white dwarf.
Adding a bit more context here: Novae are a subclass of physcial systems known as “cataclysmic variables” (CVs), so named as they are characterized by long periods of systematic variability punctuated by large, one may say ‘cataclysmic’ outbursts of energy. CVs are close binaries, where one member of the pair started slightly more massive and has evolved into a white dwarf. With some hand-waving of my own, owing to the closeness of the binary pair, the secondary, less evolved star, can be large enough that it fills its equipotential surface, the Roche lobe. The atmosphere of the secondary star (filled blue surface in the image) is in contact with a local maximum in the equipotential surface at the L1 Lagrange point. Being a local maximum, material at the L1 point – e.g. the secondary stars atmosphere – will tend to ‘fall’ into the potential of the white dwarf. Depending on the dynamics of the system, strength of magnetic fields, rate of material streaming off the atmosphere, different types of CV systems will form, including polars (strong magnetic fields channel the flow onto the white dwarf surface), dwarf novae (stable accretion disk forms and material is transferred through the disk but not on the white dwarf surface – outbursts in dwarf novae result from instabilities in the accretion disk causing a sudden dumping of a small amount of material onto the white dwarf), and novae (material accretes slowly through the disk onto the white dwarf surface and builds up on the surface over time until the pressures and temperatures at the base of the accreted layer are sufficient to trigger a thermonuclear runaway in the accreted layer – not the white dwarf itself! – resulting in a nova outburst).
Artists rendition of nova CV system. Slightly more fancy than the stick diagram above. Click to go to article I stole it from.
By what mechanism? Novae are a class of close binary stars with a white dwarf member. The pair is close enough that the less evolved member fills its Roche lobe and transfer hydrogen rich material from its atmosphere through the inner Lagrange point that accretes onto the surface of the white dwarf. Over of order 10^4 years, enough material accumulates that the pressures and temperature at the base of the accreted layer undergo a thermonuclear runaway of hydrogen burning – which creates helium. In no world do novae burn anything heavier than maybe beryllium [ed] depending on the composition of the donating stars atmosphere. They may dredge up some heavier stuff like oxygen from the upper layers of the white dwarf, but no nuclear burning beyond hydrogen. One needs supernovae to produce heavy elements – the sort of isotopic anomalies that were being insinuated – where extremely massive stars capable of producing heavy elements in their cores and in radioactive processes in the ejecta undergo core collapse.
So what’s a micro novae? The sun accumulates galactic material on a 6000 year timescale because of (hand wave) periodic galactic magnetic fields and currents. Never mind the complexity of the galactic magnetic fields, twisting owing to differential rotation, and the fact that very little extra-solar material makes it into the inner solar system because of the solar wind and heliopause. Ignore all that and assume (erroneously) that the sun actually accretes some significant amount of inter-galactic [SIC] material. And now…. what? What mechanism for any outburst? What mechanism to produce heavy elements – a physical impossibility? This whole segment was a hot mess of uninformed conjecture, unsupported assertion, and physically implausible to impossible statements.
The point here was the following – even if one allows for the periodic accretion of intra-galactic material (not a foregone conclusion), this sort of thing is so far from the mass transfer rates in novae and nova-like systems that there’s just no plausible mechanism for an ‘outburst’ of any kind, mini, micro, or otherwise. The guest analogizes his ‘postulate’ to a real phenomena that (VERY VERY) superficially can be made to sound like a what happens in novae like systems and… just calls it that, implying that one can see outbursts, just smaller. There’s no physical mechanism for that to happen, but it can be made to be sound plausible if you don’t think too deeply about it.
There’s enough to worry about with actual solar storms and magnetic reversals without gluing together disparate facts into an scientifically incoherent doomsday world-building.
So the short of, just because someone is considered fringe/conspiracy theorist in a world where legitimate scientists and thinkers have been so labelled to dismiss their ideas and impose top down control, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t real fringe ‘loons’ – for lack of a better term – people out there. One has to be careful and always be aware of our own potential to fall for some variation of Gell-Mann Amnesia.
“…. just because someone is considered fringe/conspiracy theorist in a world where legitimate ….. thinkers have been so labelled to dismiss their ideas and impose top down control, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t real fringe ‘loons’ ‘
So, what am I supposed to do with all of these broad brushes?
Gell-Mann amnesia
When someone claims knowledge in all areas we call that a bullshit artist.
One of wife’s friends asked me a question once and I answered “I dont know”
“Suthenboy, I thought you knew everything!”
I answered ” I do, just not all at the same time.”
Paint your wagon?
There’s enough to worry about with actual solar storms and magnetic reversals without gluing together disparate facts into an scientifically incoherent doomsday world-building.
The straight-to-
videostreaming market is hungry and demands content!Rule 34 says otherwise.
All I want to know is:
Is it safe to take my aluminum foil hat off or not?
Nooooo!!!
That’s what they want you to think.
Only if it’s made of pure certified solar micro-nova synthesized alu-min-ium. Otherwise, absolutely not.
Silly fool.
Copper netting or GTFO.
If you aren’t wearing a Faraday suit, you aren’t serious about life!
“… incoherent doomsday world-building.”
What’s SMOD? Chopped liver?
See, right now I am more concerned about the cost of a dinner we are planning. I went to the grocery store yesterday…two bags of ordinary everyday stuff. Seventy five bucks.
If it makes you feel better, SMOD could actually happen, given that it’s happened before.
Great music choice!
I keep trying to lure Mike S. out of his hidey-hole, but he seems immune to my tender ministrations.
You’ll see MikeS (and maybe NoDakMat) live at HH time.
“Farewell to Kings” is a great album. Followed with Cygnus X-1’s continuation on “Hemispheres”.
🙉
Well you got me, a great song to play bass to
There’s enough to worry about with actual solar storms and magnetic reversals without gluing together disparate facts into an scientifically incoherent doomsday world-building.
Spoilsport.
Personal theory: It’s not the dramatic catastrophes that get you, its the daily grind. People long for a break from the daily grind so doomsday fantasies are fun.
Hey, the good news about a zombie apocalypse is that you don’t have to go to work and you get to shoot all your neighbors.
I think there is also the element of “I survived (or witnessed) the End of the World” narcissism.
juris imprudent:
I just expect in an EotW/SHtF situation that I’ll be in the majority to die quickly. For once I’ll be a part of the majority!
I expect I’d be one of the people who have gone hopelessly insane but somehow not died.
Neph:
I sometimes think I should move closer to the city center, just to be sure
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
“I survived (or witnessed) the End of the World” narcissism.
Well, I have. So many times now I have lost count.
Mom called me the the night of the last time we were in the bullseye of an approaching hurricane. She was nearly in a panic.
“Look Mother, we live in louisiana and have for most of our lives. How many of these have we lived through?”
Her: “Yeah, but this one is different!”
Me: “They are all different. This makes about a dozen now. I have stocked us all up and backed up everything. Go to bed and go to sleep.”
More to your point JI, yes. There is an element of narcissism to it as everyone imagines they will somehow be the hero surviving it all and not get eaten by the dragon five seconds into it. All of those people getting squashed as Godzilla walks around are not me. Not me!
Oh yeah. I was going to say but couldn’t think of the term.
NPC’s. Nobody imagines themselves as an Non Player Character.
I just want to be there for the repopulating part!
I follow a GunTuber channel called Brass Facts. https://www.youtube.com/@BrassFacts
He has brought up something that I’ve mentioned more than a few times – the world has ended many times, but it’s never ended all at once. The transition from a safe, orderly, technological society to an apocalyptic hellscape takes a fair amount of time.
For most of that time, you’ll still need to go to work. You’ll still need to pay bills. You’ll still need to go out and pick up groceries, get gas, go to the doctor, check in on friends and family, and all the rest of the normal day-to-day stuff. You’ll just be doing all that stuff under conditions of increased difficulty, danger, and austerity.
Your best defense against the EotW is to be financially independent with no debt. A close second is having a side hustle or a skill that you can turn into one, especially if it’s one that doesn’t require the Internet. Another useful defense is having a reliable pickup or SUV and some fuel, so if things get so bad as to be unsustainable in your area, you can go somewhere else.
Some people call this ‘prepping.’ I call it being a grown-ass adult.
I got a job yesterday with Outlier AI. So far, I’ve only done training. Hopefully the work-from-home thing is a winner for me. AI is notoriously bad at math problems, and I’ll be working on a team to fix that. They assessed my math skills as being superior, so that’s good.
It often takes a few years for a new technology to hit its stride. In any case, I’m just happy to have a job that interests me and makes use of my education.
Ain’t nothin’ like a job to make a body feel better.
Good for you, Derp
They assessed my math skills as being superior, so that’s good – were you classified as human?
I’m pretty sure he’s a meat popsicle.
How can a computer be bad at math? I thought computers were made of math (and electricity).
Ask it 2+2 (or factor this or that prime), I’d assume it’s pretty good. But non-intuitive, word problems, ‘brain teasers’ and the like, I would guess it doesn’t do very good. They’re not just accessing a bunch of information and sorting through it, but rather training what paths to take through a ‘circuit’ and that’s a lot harder to do with sort of intuitive insight that math problems/word problems require for solution.
Robber barons
In the wake of the Jan. 6 attack, there were some prominent billionaires who kept their distance from Donald Trump, but that period has apparently come to an end. As Politico reported this week, many “high-dollar donors at banks, hedge funds and other financial firms” have re-embraced the presumptive Republican nominee, thanks in large part to his plans to cut taxes and weaken financial industry safeguards.
The article included this memorable quote:
Kathy Wylde, president and CEO of the Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit organization that represents the city’s top business leaders, said Republicans have told her that “the threat to capitalism from the Democrats is more concerning than the threat to democracy from Trump.”
Sounds legit.
I’ll take “shit that never happened” for $1,000, Alex Ken.
Bah, it ate my ‘strike’ – stupid ‘del’
One is real and the other a phantom of fever-plagued morons.
Democrats are a bigger threat to prosperity in general than Trump is a threat to democracy. Unless by ‘democracy’ you mean ‘unchallenged Democrat rule.’
Democracy is a threat to prosperity.
Yep
Well, the current batch of Dem’s are so unpredictable in anything other than their hatred of capitol, it is no wonder the banksters are a flockin’ to Trump.
Let’s see if I can sneak this past the error monster-
[D]emocracies tend to be better at a whole bunch of things critical to economic flourishing, such as maintaining the rule of law; protecting property rights; providing public goods (education, public health, infrastructure); ensuring policymakers are accountable to all citizens (not just their cronies); and resolving disputes via compromise rather than violence. (Violence, you might have heard, is not great for business.)
None of those things actually require “democracy”.
ensuring policymakers are accountable to all citizens (not just their cronies) – when did this fantastic thing ever happen?
Violence, you might have heard, is not great for business. – depends on the business. if you are in the window business…
ensuring policymakers are accountable
Oh, you mean the people in the Executive branch that the President can’t fire? Those paragons of progressive politics? They can’t even spell accountability, let alone define; ask them — where did the accountability touch you? — and they’ll blink uncomprehendingly.
None of that means anything close to what they want you to think it means.
Rule of law and property rights are notoriously flexible under mob rule.
If by ‘flexible’ you mean the way smoke moves when the wind blows you are correct.
I got this on my work email from HR. “You have been identified as someone required to take California Workplace Violence Prevention Training.” I must be on some kind of list.
“You have been identified as being redundant. We are eliminating all HR positions, effective yesterday.”
JaimeRoberto can expose you to workplace violence including mean thoughts and misgendering, which is are known to the State of California to cause cancer and or birth defects and or hurt fillings.
Husband says it’s how to deal with workplace violence perpetrated by someone else.
I was hoping it would be like sexual harassment training where I learned how to be a better harasser.
It’s california. You’re supposed to die to aid the anti-gun cause.
Jaime, that’s funny. USA Hockey makes us all take “Safe Sport” training, and more than once my teammates have commented that it seems like a training manual for groomers.
Just now realized that ought to have been obvious to me, but I read it the wrong way and got weirded out.
Yes, if I remember mine from a few weeks ago you can run away, cower under a desk, or fight back (unarmed of course).
as long as you are not known to the State of California to cause cancer
Maybe they’ve found an effective use for AI.
“Hey, AI, who should I be watching out for?”
AI:”Pretty obvious, the disgruntled white guy.”
I’m relatively gruntled, but I am quiet. We’re the ones to look out for because out of nowhere we just explode. On the other hand, when the boss 3 levels above me kept asking me the same question hoping for a different answer, I did say “If this guy asks me the same question again I’m going to have to choke a bitch out.” Maybe the AI was listening.
I’ve told this before, but when we did Run, Hide, Fight “training”, I pointed out that it was a recipe for ambushing an attacker (depending on which way you run), and I was all for it.
They subsequently changed the training to “Run Away, Hide, Fight”.
Meanwhile, over on the lunatic fringe
The group Climate Defiance took responsibility for the protest, posting pictures to X of protesters wearing shirts reading “end fossil fuels” jumping onto the field and being tackled or arrested by police officers.
“Eight of us have been arrested for shutting down the Congressional Baseball Game. They are behind bars right now,” the group said in a post. “Make no mistake: It’s the Members of Congress who should be locked up.”
The group had also said on its website that it was “shutting down the congressional baseball game.”
Reached for comment, organizer Evan Drukker-Schardl said, “Congress and the fossil fuel industry have picked their side tonight: death and destruction for our entire planet.”
Serious people, doing serious things.
Everyone funding* these ‘protesters’ needs to be crucified along the banks of the Patomic.
*where it is taxpayer funds, the bureaucrats and politicans who approved it are to be counted as the funders for the purposes of this statement.
Strung upside down just above the low tide mark.
I think you mean “dangerous insurgents”.
I hope Steve Scalise was there and rolled his eyes at their feeble attempts to shut the game down.
“Bitch, please”
It’s the Members of Congress who should be locked up – their not wrong. but for the wrong reasons.
Holy crap I thought this bullshit was over. NY AG threatening doctors not to prescribe Ivermectin. A lawyer and a doctor!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/marxist-tyrant-ny-ag-letitia-james-now-targets/
Ivermectin was awarded a Nobel in 2015 by the Committee for Physiology or Medicine.
It does not stop until you tell them to fuck off, whether it’s this tyranny or the transparent attempt to go after cattle in the name of bird flu. Just fuck off. I’ll stop there, my list membership card is full up, no room for another.
Cygnus X-1 – any good wine bars around there? if not I am not going.
First googles for Ben Davidson bring some format footsballz player not a fringe lunatic.
Apologies for going so far off topic, but some really good news for the few libertarians in Ohio:
Looks like we may have a ballot issue to amend the state constitution to eliminate QI, PI, SI, and the rest. Link to the full decision.
That is good news. However, if actually passes let me know so I can buy Powerball and retire.
Man, the state funded and police union sponsored scare ads are gonna look like previews of a “Purge/ Texas Chainsaw Massacre” mash-up.
I want to go to there.
You can always come visit, there’s a decent number of us throughout the state.
Sovereign Immunity forced my insurance company to pay for the repairs when a Ford Explorer owned by the Dayton Metropolitan Housing Authority rear-ended my Festiva. 😒
Never forget! Never forgive! ✊
Which one of you owns this?
https://www.conspiracyminigolf.com/
I plan on going there for Father’s Day.
Texas. Makes sense.
We’ve got a real nice outdoor one near us.
https://puttu.com/
There is a monster-themed mini golf too with a black light mural of Chuck Norris kicking zombies. Very entertaining. The conspiracy / STEVE SMITH one looks kind of tiny but I shall go and take pictures. How could I not?
Fake. If they were real about conspiracies, the open hours would be listed as Illuminati.
I have this concern generally about the Dark Horse podcast. I think that Bret and Heather are genuinely trying to figure things out, but there’s a little voice in my head that says that it might all be bullshit.
Everything. Everything is bullshit. Just remember that and you’ll be fine.
I am bullshit. You are bullshit. That podcast is bullshit. The orphan that hands you a towel after you take a shower is bullshit.
Just assume everyone’s running some sort of grift and you’ll never be let down and only occasionally wrong.
I think Bret, at least, has a bit of a messianic – not really the right word – complex going. It’s no coincidence that he came up with the ‘intellectual dark web’ classification. He seems to like to at least play at being a member of an elite with deep insight that others don’t have, with an inflated sense of self importance (e.g. an ’emergency’!! appearance on Rogan or “I can’t afford to go to this anti-lock down rally, someone needs to be free to carry the torch if they crack down and arrest you!”). There can be an element of truth to it – they, after stumbling out of the blocks, got Covid mostly right after all. But it can also lead to a weakness to fall prey to grifters and genuine loons. I think Davidson is largely the former, but has just the right combination of audacity and access to ‘secret knowledge’ couched in just the right way so as to be cat-nip to Bret. But I think his willingness to be open to questions – and his wife’s perhaps more grounded demeanor – keeps him mostly on course, or gets him back there.
He seems to be a decent enough guy and his insights are often solid but they aren’t really worldshaking. You’re right about the messianic desire no doubt.
First googles for Ben Davidson bring some format footsballz player
And actor. He was in in Conan the Barbarian with Arnold.
More good news.
Young Thug’s lawyer granted bond, will not have to report to jail this week
https://archive.fo/Wm9pU#selection-1545.0-1545.75
What happened, the judge sobered up and realized he was way out of bounds?
State SC got involved.
Hardly. State supreme court let him post bond.
Huh, judge might actually get in a bit of trouble over that.
Strongly worded letter which he feels will make him a martyr.
Headline:
Man Killed After getting Electrocuted in Jacuzzi
Jeepers. Talk about having a bad day.
Mexico. Known for quality work and adherence to electrical codes.
Depending on what he was doing prior to/during said electrocution in said jacuzzi, maybe we can have a little bit of a bright side to the tragedy (no sarcasm); hell of a way to go.
Palpable desperation
Next up is a star-studded June 15 fundraiser in Los Angeles where late-night TV host Jimmy Kimmel will interview President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Barack Obama, along with special guests Clooney and Roberts.
It’s the latest indication that Hollywood, long a significant part of the Democratic coalition, is beginning to focus its attention on an election where Biden has consistently trailed in the polls against former President Donald Trump.
——-
Hollywood has historically served as a money machine for the Democratic Party, and some of its most high profile stars have been vigorous supporters of Democratic nominees. In the last presidential election cycle, individuals in the television, music and movie industries contributed more than $104 million to Democrats, compared to just over $12 million for Republicans, according to non-profit Open Secrets.
Biden isn’t exactly inspiring the entertainment industry to action. It’s more about distaste for the alternative. Alex Gregory, a writer who worked with Mandel on “Veep” and “White House Plumbers,” said the choice between Biden and Trump — which he views as “malaise or chaos” — has made him nervous.
“Nobody’s excited about Biden the way that they were about Obama and the way they were about Bill Clinton,” said Gregory.
Bad Orange Jumpsuit Man will round up the artiste community and put them to work in the coal mines.
“I’m starting to worry that the lawfare has emboldened him!”
https://youtu.be/cgBZCtAolPM?si=boX3lj0h8UM4A1VS
Excuse me, but if you round up the artiste community and put them to work in giant hamster wheels, does it count as green, renewable energy?
https://nypost.com/2024/06/13/us-news/hochul-open-to-ny-mask-bans-return-amid-rise-in-antisemitic-protests/
Hochul open to banning masks in New York amid explosion of antisemitic protests
Which will likely have a religious exemption that the state will actually honor so as to be useless. Unlike COVID edicts and religious exemptions.
I think they’re silly but people should be able to wear masks if they want. If they use them in commission of a crime just charge and/or sentence them a little heavier.