Don Escaped _______ posted an interesting article that had far more math regarding this November, so this is my contribution using no sciencing at all, but rather some thoughts based upon my own lived experience and what it might mean for the upcoming Election of DOOM. This was sparked by a comment on Swiss Servator’s 7/20 “links of afternooning.” straffinrun-san posted Matt Taibi’s article of dawning self-awareness called “The Left is Now the Right.” You don’t need to read it, though I would commend it to you, but I’ll summarize for the busy, lazy, and apathetic: (my words)
We used to laugh at the Bush conservatives and all of those Republicans who were such prudes about sex and other culture war issues. But at least we controlled the Media and so we could descend on them at school board meetings and mock them as the Puritan wanna-bes that we all knew they were. But holy shit! The Left has gone insane and you can’t even argue with them because they’re the bureaucrats and others in places of power. Whoops!
blackjack, straff, and Viking all had a similar to the one reaction that I did, which was that there were always moral scolds among Team Blue, include Al and Tipper Gore (as two glaring examples), of which Taibi seems to be blissfully ignorant. To be charitable, Taibi’s had a somewhat eclectic upbringing, including being raised as the son of an NBC reporter and living in relatively affluent areas, attending private schools, and studying abroad in college. (And no, Wikipedia, Concord, MA isn’t really the “Boston suburbs,” but nice try.) That seeming bit of “too local” Boston snobbery collided with Taibi’s blind spot and a lightbulb went off in my head.
My dad, by almost any metric – except one – is conservative. He left high school at the age of 15 to join a Catholic seminary, but only lasted about 6 weeks before my grandmother and grandfather had to go get him. Nonetheless, he remained much more than a cafeteria catholic during my childhood, with all of the attendant hang-ups and guilt, but little of the doctrinal grounding. Dad was also a die-hard, blue-collar democrat, once even running for some minor office as a (D) in Johnston when I was a kid. He lost to another (D) – ‘cuz it’s Rhode Island and there are no Republicans. (I keed, I keed).
“Party of the workin’ man,” my dad once told me when young me asked why he was a democrat. This made him identical to a huge swath of New England, with its roots in stern religiosity. No, it is nothing like the bible belt, but dad was raised by god-fearing catholics and he got along just fine with my (first) wife’s Irish catholic parents from South Boston. Dad of the French-Canadian descent got on famously with my ex-mother-in-law, God rest her blessed Irish soul, right off of the boat from Galway Bay, IRL. She originally came from the small town of Claddagh, famous for the ring that many micks wear as a kind of alternate or second wedding band. If the heart faces inward, you’re taken… but If it’s outward, she’s available boys!
Anyway, while I was thinking about the differences between the “alleged” Boston suburbs – of affluence – like Taibi’s Concord, or other places closer-in like Milton, or even Hingham on the South Shore, I also was minded of the working class ‘burbs I was more familiar with, like Braintree, Quincy, and Weymouth, or my own childhood haunts a little further to the south in another rock-solid, Team Blue state like Rhode Island, with its high-end areas like the East Side of Providence near Brown University, as distinct from the… ahem, decidedly less affluent areas of my mom and dad.
Despite those cultural differences and even animosities, however, all of those areas and ethnicities, including blacks in the projects, all voted Team Blue; monolithically, in many cases, as a matter of straight-line ticket voting and generational pride… and notwithstanding Catholic doctrine regarding abortion and Team Blue’s position on it. Which has always struck me as a separate and fascinating bit of political anthropology. I asked my mother-in-law about it once. We were sitting in her living room, the front room of a typical Southie house, right on East 5th Street in the City Point area and I asked her how she could square her vote for democrats with being a catholic.
“Mister ________,” she began in her thick brogue, using my last name whenever she was about to lecture me, “every good Irish family in Massa-chooo-sits has tooo pictures on their wall: one of Our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ, and the other of Jack Kennedy. Now don’t be a wise guy.” And she went back to her knitting. She knew exactly what I was getting at, but like most religious (and) conservative democrats, she wasn’t voting on that issue. It hit way too close to home for many Irish catholics (in my experience), so no one wanted the government’s hand in abortion: we’d like to keep our mistakes and sins quiet, thankyouverymuch. This is not an attack, by the way, because my own experience was much the same with the hardscrabble places I grew up, with conservative Italian catholics the dominant minority – again, still reliably Team Blue and pro-union guys for generations (go figyah… and mind ya own business and fuhgeddaboutit.) No, both of those groups were voting “D” on a different platform, and I also found it interesting that neither of those groups were exactly, uhhh, warm with some of their fellow team members… particularly those who were melanin-privileged and lived near them in the inner cities. Yet that has long been the coalition that fueled democratic electoral success.
Now let me back up a bit to the 2016 election. Don Escaped’s article sagely points out what I think is now the well-established electoral reality of Trump’s win: he ran the “Midwest gauntlet” by winning just enough blue-collar, (previously) reliable rust-belt Democrat voters and that spelled Hillary’s doom. But here’s where Don and I may part company in regards to our view of what that means.
I don’t think Trump’s win was an accident or good luck. Don has posited that it would be statistically difficult to run such a gauntlet again – but that presumes that Trump’s win was a “one-time” thing, like winning the lottery, or due to simply how uniquely horrible Hillary was as a candidate, rather than being indicative of some deeper electoral shift that we may be witnessing… But let’s put a pin in this for a moment.
In the immediate aftermath of the election, what with all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth, while most of the media lost their minds, I remember seeing an interview a few days later with a couple of insiders in Trump’s campaign and they described their strategy. I was blown away because they described exactly what they needed to do to win and to whom they were making their pitch. Trump’s campaign knew they had to thread a needle and they absolutely did it. It might be the greatest election strategy and coup ever, but leave it to the MSM to completely bury all of that – and destroy any shred of introspection about Herself’s massive failures, much less Trump’s successes.
I engaged in a bit of excessive schadenfreude over Hillary’s loss in a prior article here, but my larger point was to put lie to the notion that Trump won because of either of the two prevalent theories floated by dems and the Media for Her loss: that it was racism and/or misogyny that handed Trump the presidency. Indeed, it is my continued belief based upon the county-by-county results that those rust belt voters in Wisconsin, Ohio, et al., the same Team Blue stalwarts who had twice previously voted for Obama – and for decades helped ensure democrats won those cities – those who flipped to Trump didn’t do it ‘cuz bigotry. More importantly, after considering Taibi’s blindspot about traditionally socially conservative dems, I’ve begun to think that perhaps what we witnessed, and will witness again, is a shift in voting blocs, one that prognosticators looking at stats and polls are likely to miss.
Electoral wins are made up of coalitions of voters, regardless of the fact that we’re a two-party system. Indeed, it may be precisely because we’re a two-party system that voting coalitions are somewhat invisible. For many, many years, democrats have relied upon a coalition of disparate groups to win elections, including (a) a near-monopoly on the minority vote, particularly the black vote, and principally in inner cities; (b) a rock-solid base of support from unions, from blue-collar to public sector; and (c) the Woketarians – academics and activists, from the Greens (of the environment) to the Greens (of envy). Trump seemingly cracked that coalition, benefiting from Hillary’s awfulness in two ways: first, in peeling off some of those blue collar voters, and second, in black voters having noticeably lower turnout in 2016. Of course, that was always going to be the case for any democrat post-Obama, and perhaps that’s being overlooked, as well. Hillary got 88% of the black vote, which is an electoral rout by any definition… but Obama had pulled 93% of a larger turnout.
…Which brings me to what we’re seeing in cities across the country right now. I have this grotesque feeling that we’re watching performance art. The democrats are conducting one of (if not THE) most base appeals to any voting bloc we’ve ever witnessed. This isn’t simply the “free shit” brigade. Just think about everything that’s been said and done by Team Blue politicos, from George Floyd’s hagiography and elevation to martyr status, to the takeover of Seattle, to BLM being painted on the streets by the Mayor of New York City himself, down to serious and repeated calls for special status for blacks over whites: this is Team Blue pulling out every stop for the black vote. It’s so clear to me now it might as well be written by a plane in the sky.
Look at what we’ll do. We’ll get whites to prostrate themselves before you. We’ll change the laws; we’ll look the other way on acts of violence, even against your own. We’ll ignore overt anti-semitism by the black community and still give you Reparations; we’ll even abandon our cop unions for you. We’ll make our VP choice a black woman, at a time when it’s likely our Presidential candidate is incompetent and incapable of fulfilling his term. That’s right – we’ll give you the Presidency!
I can’t get my head around it, really. Maybe I’m wrong, but it seems an awful lot for a group that is, mathematically speaking, only (at high estimates) 1/7 of the population, and probably less than that as a voting bloc.
Trump was polling at historically high numbers for a Republican among blacks earlier this year. Major black cultural icons have come out in support of Trump, including on criminal justice reform. Think about that for a second. Then Biden goes on a radio show and absolutely puts his foot in his mouth regarding the black vote being a lock for him and Dems, something he could ill afford to do. Shortly thereafter, we had the George Floyd incident and The Reactions (as distinct from any of the instances of police brutality that had happened to POCs before Joe from Scranton told blacks they weren’t… you know… The Color if they didn’t vote for him).
So, I return to those rust belt voters, those socially conservative dems who have always pulled the lever for any Donkey… until they didn’t. I think about the people I know from my own reliable dem strongholds and I wonder: are they suddenly going to feel welcome coming back to the current democratic party? Is Joe Incomprehensible Biden going to bring them home?? Because he isn’t the voice of the democrats at all. Are all of the voters who were called racist and deplorable in the lead-up to 2016 suddenly going to pull the lever after 4 years more of being called racists?? Are those union voters in Wisconsin and Ohio feeling the love from their fellow democrats, feeling that they’re a part of the team?? All while the loudest among the dems keep yelling about how it’s all a zero sum game?
Will the black community suddenly come back in large enough numbers for Babbling Biden because he was Obama’s guy? And are the “Rust Belt Racists” going to suddenly find their inner Lincoln… while they’re watching dems tear down statues of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and… Abe Lincoln? There are certainly other confounding factors here. Maybe Pandemic Pandemonium will bring in the Karens in sufficient numbers to offset any losses. And maybe the dems’ strategy of going hard Left, burning and looting, is really “Berning! and Looting!” to bring home the disaffected Leftists of Senator Sanders… (‘cuz we know they like to break other people’s shit – and skulls).
Let’s suppose it doesn’t work, however. Let’s suppose for a moment that I’m right and we’re in a post-2020 election world where Trump has won. Let’s also presume that the numbers show that he held what he got last time, when he was merely the possible-Pussy Grabber-in-Chief in the leadup to the election, as opposed to the now-Impeached Incumbent. Will any of the analysis include the rich irony that it might well be blacks, a distinct minority, who have a position that libertarians have always envied and yet never been able to explicitly market: being a controlling minority voting bloc that can swing Presidential elections between Team Red and Team Blue? Could Kanye West be the Jill Stein/Ralph Nader of 2020??
Trump is what he was, in my opinion, and Russiagate is starting to turn towards indictments. (Not for anyone that matters, but the Truth Will Out eventually). My view is that the polls no longer matter, if they ever did, and 538 can run as many algorithms as it wants with neat tails and error bars. I’m hard-pressed to believe that Trump, who most of his life was a moderate NYC democrat by any fair definition, is somehow driving away his voters from 2016 in sufficient numbers to matter. But I know that what I’ve witnessed since 2016 by the Donkeys has hardened me against them in a way I would never have thought possible. Fifteen years ago I volunteered for an upstart running for Senate against a longtime incumbent in Virginia. James Webb won that race calling himself a Jacksonian democrat. His status as a war hero and best-selling author certainly helped. His history as Reagan’s SecNav probably did, too, although Team Blue folks rubbed his face in the fact and said he wasn’t even a real Dem. In 2016 I was prepared to vote for Webb if he had won Team D’s nomination.
Now I can safely say I will never vote for democrat again – ever. Again, I’m one data point and there are a LOT of confounding events at play. I’m not suggesting that it’s 1968 all over again, because Trump isn’t Nixon and Biden isn’t Hubert Humphrey, but I wonder if maybe we’re all asking the wrong question.
Maybe we should be asking if democrats can be all things to all voting constituencies in the way they’re doing it. Can they bring back their blue-collar, union voters from 2012 with “Gibbering Joe And You Know – The Thing!” while simultaneously winking at BIPOC and saying “Don’t worry, you’re Getting the Presidency?” Is cancelling the names of Native American professional and amateur sports teams really going to resonate in Madison and Cleveland (home of the Tribe??)
In short, maybe we should be asking if Joe Addlebrained Biden can thread THAT needle with the voters that matter, and can he do it from his basement?
VDH isn’t the only person with eyes that can see.
Don’t tell me what to do!
I can only speak to what I can see, but in a rather deep blue stronghold, I’m not seeing a lot of enthusiasm.
But then again, I’m not seeing a lot of people.
It’s all anecdata at this point, but I can’t imagine that blacks are going to come out in numbers any greater for Biden than they did for Hillary; I suspect the numbers will even be lower than for Herself. Joe’s not bringing black men out in droves – not a fucking chance. The “I’ll pick a black woman VP” is the most blatant case of pandering to a demo that I have ever seen or heard of in U.S. Presidential politics. It might work for that one demo, but I do not think that is going to bring home blacks AND women for Biden. It might bring a few more black women, but I don’t think that tips the scales for him.
The black woman thing sells more to their woke white base than it does to actual blacks. Especially if the pick is someone like Harris.
I think you’re right, but I keep looking at that and thinking, “Who are they adding that they didn’t already have?”
The “I’m picking a black woman for VP” may play well with the far left loonies – who were always going to vote for anyone NOT TRUMP – but is this going to bring home the blue-collar, union guys in Wisconsin? in Michigan?
I just don’t see how any of this has added to what Hildebeast had last time.
First off, blacks didn’t even turn out in ’12 like they did in ’08. So yes, Obama won them overwhelmingly (against Romney, go figure), but he ended up with less votes overall. That they would fall off further in ’16 – with the Dem race between sniping white factions (Hillary/Bernie) is also no surprise. You can bet the Dems are terrified of Trump’s pitch to blacks – what do you have to lose?
Great article, and it linked me to another that i had missed (good work Don).
I think that one of Trumps plans/strategies was specifically to go after and flip a percentage of the black vote republican. You can see this with how much he touted the African American Unemployment rate. Of course Coronavirus, George Floyd, and BLM have flushed that down the toilet. I think many Dems are very worried about loosing that demographic. If we are going to get into “race driven” politics, then the more sensible route would be for republicans to try to get the Hispanic vote, as that is a larger demographic. But you can see why that might not be tenable with Trump.
Yes: this is really well-written, Ozy.
The question of whether 2016 was a one-off is the question of HRC. I think not-HRC won then, and I think not-DJT is now a strong possibility.
The thing about party is over-blown: Kenosha moms don’t necessarily hate and align the MSM, the DNC, or any particular outrages ascribed/connected to JRB. Most who hate JRB use FoxNews talking points, they live in that think space; Kenosha moms don’t at all (it’s annoying stuff on all the time at their dad’s house to them).
Kenosha mom will simply choose between DJT and not-DJT.
Don –
You’re suggesting that Kenosha mom (who would vote for Biden) didn’t vote for HRC?! And is all turned off by 4 years of icky Trump??
That’s the math I can’t seem to do in my head: DJT was the Pussy-Grabber-in-Chief right before the 2016 election and it didn’t hurt him enough to lose in those same places, but NOW they’re turned off by him enough to vote for Gropey McHairSniffer?
That’s where you and I part ways, I think.
I wouldn’t argue your point at all
do you think not-DJT who sat out 2016 will emerge?
No. I think they sit again.
I also think that third parties get a lot less votes and Trump will pick up some of that, although so will Biden, but I think it’s probably an electoral wash.
I think Trump will get more black votes this time and it will be enough that it will negate any supposed “wall” of support Biden has among blacks.
not to answer for him, but I apply the 60/40 maxim here. Setting aside a few exceptions, national politics is played between the 60/40 and 40/60 hash marks. Assuming that new voters are heavily anti Trump (60% vote for Biden, 40% for Trump), how many are needed to flip a state, all else being equal?
Well, napkin math says 5x the vote differential. In Wisconsin (Trump won by 23,000 votes, there need to be nearly 115,000 new voters at a 60/40 ratio to overcome the 2016 differential.
Feasible? Yes. The differential in Wisconsin from 2012 to 2016 was almost exactly -115,000 votes in contrast with a gain in 85000 eligible voters. Assuming (conservatively) a return to 70% voting turnout, that means there were around 158,000 latent votes in Wisconsin in 2016. Add in whatever population changes have occurred over the last 4 years, and that number may increase by another 30k or so.
Assuming 188k votes from non-voters in 2016 (to get to roughly 70% turnout in 2020), Biden needs to carry 57% to equal out Trump’s 2016 advantage, all else being equal. It’s doable, but it’s not easy to do with non-voters.
This is why Biden is focused on the base. For every non-voter, Biden gets, at best, 0.2 marginal votes. For every prog diehard, Biden gets 0.9 or 0.95 marginal votes. He’s gambling that the ratio of motivatible progs to motivatible independents is greater than 1:4.5
I think that the cancel culture/SJW/branch covidian explosion on social media is massively polarizing the suburban soccer mom segment more than DJT is.
The vitriolic cleansing being done by the left is striking fear in the hearts of a lot of women, as they see normal people’s lives ruined for not being enthusiastic enough about their support for leftism.
I don’t know how the proportions will fall, but I think there are a lot of suburban women who will be voting Trump, not because they like him, but because he’s less of a personal threat than the cancel culture leftists.
Trump, if he knows what’s good for him, will find every sob story about cancel culture ruining nice people’s lives, and he’ll play them up, over and over and over again.
I think the BLM/Cancel Culture/ Karen thing may well have done a lot to turn white women off from leftisim. But what do i know?
My wife has tens of examples from her personal feed of Instagram “influencers” who were mobbed not because of anything they said, but because they decided to stick to the primary purpose of their accounts and not actively promote social justice.
I don’t blame anybody who shuts the hell up and votes against these loons in this environment.
This is the rub to me. If you exclude the virus, the insanity of the Dems would be the story of this election. Their hard tilt left would not fly.
But you have a lot of pissed off elderly who are buying into the corona panic hook line and sinker. You have the soccer Mom brigade. The media has successfully sold a lot of people on the notion that Trump fucked up the response to this out of control virus. But, then again, the Democrats and the media did the same thing in 2004 with Bush and Iraq and voters said fuck you. And they hadn’t gone full social justice crazy at the same time.
All I see is virtually the same tactics by Team Blue as last time – except worse and further Left – with the bonus of riots and looting, along with OrangeManBad. And OrangeMan was just presiding over an economic boom for blacks and record low unemployment for POCs.
The pandemic hysteria definitely is the X factor: oh, how the little authoritarian inside of so many has been ennabled by this shit.
Great job as always Ozy!
I live in a Red Bubble in no where land, so No Joe here at all, and Trump stickers Abound,
Ozy, see below, WTF was that?
Yeah, the Two New Things this time around are the ‘Vid and the riots.
One has been sold to some? a lot? of people as Trump’s fault. I think the other is going to cut the other way, perhaps just as hard.
What Trump has going for him is that the ‘Vid has peaked and is declining damn near everywhere, and I think there’s virtually no chance that changes. Whether the Dems can switch the riots off (if they even want to), I don’t know. Trump has them pinned on that issue: the Dem governors and mayors either have to (a) let the riots run, (b) close them down themselves and take the optics hit or (c) admit publicly they have failed and beg Trump to save them. I don’t see any of those hurting Trump.
I think Ozy’s insight about coalitions of voting blocks is very important and real. There are large swaths of people who vote, and influence each other to vote, the same way, and that the same messaging will bring them in. However i think one mistake everyone makes is that we focus on very easy to see voting blocks, and ignore the ones that are too hard to suss out. think there are a lot of voters who make there decisions off of not easily identifiable reasons. Not that they don’t have them, apathetic people probably won’t vote, but that they are don’t fit the easily identifiable blocks.
Of course i don’t even know if reaching them is politically worth it. It is probably easier to go after the “blue collar worker” or “white college educated woman”, etc.
“But you have a lot of pissed off elderly who are buying into the corona panic hook line and sinker. You have the soccer Mom brigade. The media has successfully sold a lot of people on the notion that Trump fucked up the response to this out of control virus”
I don’t know about that. I live in a community that is mostly seniors, and they seem completely unconcerned about it, at least watching them all socializing and not wearing masks, they don’t seem terrified to me and I haven’t even heard any of them bring it up. Once in a while I’ll hear someone say ‘stay well’ or some other such sentiment that is clearly a reference to commie flu. But I don’t see anyone hiding indoors or panicking.
Thanks, Ozy!
Interesting perspective, particularly the possible electoral shift. I don’t think the polls are even close to accurately measuring how pissed off the normal people are right now, and for good reason. The stress of the lockdown and the shrieking lefties everywhere is gonna blow up in the dems’ (pasty) faces.
I think VDH is right that what we’re seeing is a shift as Team Blue veers Hard Left: The dems are no longer my father’s “party of the working man.”
They (Team Blue) are praying to God that ol’ Scranton Joe can bring that demo home, but the problem is that Joe is a muttering, doddering old man who is being pushed every which way by the winds around him – and it’s obvious. Very, very obvious from his campaign messaging to his sporadic outbursts of idiocy. The Left owns the DNC right now – and that is NOT what fires up blue collar workers. Joe Biden/Team D has nothing for them besides “check your privilege” and “hard work doesn’t matter” and RACISTS!!!
I believe Trump may be the perfectly acceptable Team Red guy for blue collar dems – this is, of course, because Trump is what he always was: a moderate NYC democrat who took over Team Red.
The big problem the left has with becoming the “workers party” that they claim to be, is that a large amount of the workers they claim to represent, like the capitalist system and like the idea of “hard work pays off”. It is in the more “educated” sectors that workers seem to be more amiable to “i deserve more” kinds of thought.
They are not the workers party. They are the wokers party.
“It is in the more “educated” sectors that workers seem to be more amiable to “i deserve more” kinds of thought.”
There’s a fair amount of that around.
(Wokester thought bubble): “After all the education I’ve received, and all the deep thinking I’ve done, how come my asshole brother-in-law, who is a lowly plumber, has a big house and all of these expensive toys, and I’m just getting by teaching humanities at a community college? Time to go clobber somebody with a bike lock.”
“They (Team Blue) are praying to God that ol’ Scranton Joe can bring that demo home”
Well, I don’t think those prayers are going anywhere with SloJo saying things like ‘we’re going to transform this country’ and promising such leftist radicals are AOC and Ilhan Omar will be on his staff.
Lebanon, Holy Fuck!
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1290678928093454336
Holy…
Shit….
Wow. Jesu Cristi, that was big. I can’t imagine that isn’t HE of some kind. The initial fire and secondaries makes you think that something may have caught from the fire, but that pressure wave looks like high-explosives to me.
One report says there was a warehouse storing benzene next to the port.
That could do it. That was an unbelievably powerful explosion. The dead will number closer to 1000 (or more), IMO. The pressure wave alone will have ripped apart several blocks worth of people.
There is video showing glass knocked out of buildings 10km away.
That was an utterly massive explosion. I don’t think i’ve ever seen anything on par other than Nuclear detonations. You can see the aftermath of the complete destruction of one of the nearby buildings. Yes there are going to be a lot dead, unless they were able to evacuate the vicinity before the explosion.
There’s a mushroom cloud in some of the angles. I’m sure that will fuel speculation.
Yeah, that shockwave almost reminded me of a nuclear blast.
It certainly wasn’t just fireworks materials.
Holy fuck.
How did the guy filming that shit manage not to scream in terror? Shock?
Reading through the thread it seems it’s supposed to be a fireworks shipment/warehouse. For the first bit I can buy that, but that secondary explosion is something else. (I have actually seen a fireworks place go up) Mayhaps a fireworks manufacture and not warehouse? otherwise something else going on.
That’s a grain elevator next to the fireworks facility. The angles I’ve been able to find don’t show the secondary explosion originating in the elevator (not that I can tell, anyways), but damn close. Grain dust might also be involved. ???
Damn.
I’m waiting for Gropin’ Joe to announce his running mate before I do this month’s cartoon. I really wish I could be like SF and just write all the dialogue.
“…she’s real sassy. My nick name for her is Jemima. Her hair smells of fresh watermelon and fried chicken…”
Tried to put this in the last thread but put too many links into one comment
https://www.aier.org/article/the-2006-origins-of-the-lockdown-idea/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/social-distancing-coronavirus.html
How that idea — born out of a request by President George W. Bush to ensure the nation was better prepared for the next contagious disease outbreak — became the heart of the national playbook for responding to a pandemic is one of the untold stories of the coronavirus crisis.
It required the key proponents — Dr. Mecher, a Department of Veterans Affairs physician, and Dr. Hatchett, an oncologist turned White House adviser — to overcome intense initial opposition.
It brought their work together with that of a Defense Department team assigned to a similar task.
And it had some unexpected detours, including a deep dive into the history of the 1918 Spanish flu and an important discovery kicked off by a high school research project pursued by the daughter of a scientist at the Sandia National Laboratories.
The concept of social distancing is now intimately familiar to almost everyone. But as it first made its way through the federal bureaucracy in 2006 and 2007, it was viewed as impractical, unnecessary and politically infeasible.
https://www.abqjournal.com/1450579/social-distancing-born-in-abq-teens-science-project.html
Proof in the absolute faith in mathematics. I will tell you what the flaw was in her model. 50% infection rate in the population. You didn’t get that even with the Spanish Flu, at most 1/3rd – possibly only 1/4th.
How dare you!?
I don’t get too excited about elections, as a non-voter. I believe the debt will soon overwhelm politics, regardless of which party is in power, since all they can do is promise more music as the ship is sinking.
I’m old and tired and wonder how we have squandered the hope of the youth. It hasn’t been easy, optimism has always been an American trait, even in the worst of times. I wish only the best
for everyone but looking at the educational system don’t see much hope. I want to be wrong.
I have largely been in that camp for years, but I see this one as a bit different because the out and out socialists have seemingly captured the Democrats and if we elect a socialist government there are only two possibilities 1. Civil War or 2. Gulags. I am aware that many libertarians react to “Most important election” with disdain, and I have done so myself in the past, but there are some very scary things in the wind.
^
Just remember in 1978 Britain was rationing electricity. So there is always probably a way out short of violence.
As a Brit I’m interested by the idea that this might be America’s version of what we had in the seventies, but with proggy cultural dominance rather than economic failure. There are parallels in the sense that you have one party propped up by massively entitled special interest groups that want to hold everyone else to ransom. You also have an electorate that all logic suggests must get the point about this crap eventually.
The problem in the short term might be that Trump is more Heath than Thatcher. Things might have to get even worse before they get better, and there’ll be plenty of collateral damage.
Still, your system is very different from (better than) ours. Plus I still can’t quite believe middle America is looking at all these riots anything other than contempt and anger.
I’m not sure how you have proggy social dominance without (eventual) economic failure.
To the progs, social dominance entails economic control. Look at their platforms – redistribution, reparations, control of corporate boards, green new deal “fundamental transformation”.
Yeah, the big unknown is how well Covid and the resulting economic disaster has been sold as Trump’s fault. If it sticks, he’s probably toast. If not, I think he’s in with a better percentage than last election.
The only data I have on that is polls, and polls are crap.
They also say that 70% blame China for Wuhan.
Apply the appropriate sized grain of salt for polling data.
As I said just a few days ago, blue-collar labor decides whether or not Trump is re-elected.
Back in 2016, I told stories of the factory parking lot having brand new cars with 2008 Obama stickers on them, and I am still seeing them.
The factory is filled with socially conservative workers that hang pictures of their sons and daughters in military uniforms. They hunt, fish, and watch NASCAR in the summer and NFL in the fall.
I did not set a single Hillary bumper sticker in 2016.
The democratic party is held up by a three-legged stool: old people on social security; blue collar workers; and minority-rights activists. The dem party spent the Obama years telling blue collar labor they were deplorable. After 2016, they told blue collar labor they were evil for voting for bad orange man and to get lost, because the dems could win without them.
Anyone that thinks that gender-bending, black-clad white kids burning buildings is going to bring blue collar labor back to the dems is nuts.
Well… okay. So… maybe you could have written this in less than 300 words.
*runs from the room sobbing*
“I’m not…Glib enough!1!!”
Uh, I was just agreeing with you?
I know, kinnath. I was trying to be funny and suggest you’ve captured the gestalt of my article in less than 100 words, while I used 3500 or so. Hence my lament at not being “glib” enough.
I didn’t take offense; I was chuckling at how succinctly you captured what I wrote.
Or perhaps, you have way more “glibness” than I do.
how succinctly you captured what I wrote.
You’ve mentioned that in the past.
I have a long career of writing technical documents for non-native English speakers. Short, simple, direct is a fundamental requirement for success.
I always aim for that, too.
Hey, if I write stuff people can understand, pretty soon they might figure out this lawyering thing isn’t really nearly as hard as I make it look.
I coulda been a lawyer.
In a low-tech alternate timeline, I probably would have been.
I wasn’t going to mention “lawyerly” writing, but that might be a small part of the word count.
Hey, if I write stuff people can understand, pretty soon they might figure out this lawyering thing isn’t really nearly as hard as I make it look.
It took me a few semesters to get that concise engineering style of writing beaten out of me and replaced with the word salad that is legal writing.
Thankfully, now that I’m the client, I get to take people to task for writing unreadable bullshit.
I was a better writer as an undergrad. Law school did serious damage to my ability to communicate clearly and concisely.
Feeling a little like Edward Everett?
Marines are terrified of brevity.
…because it’s the soul of wit?
😉
I think he’s tired of listening to my sea stories when we get together locally.
And let me just say that compared to Tundra, even us salty sea dogs are quiet.
I’ve gotta go to the Honey Harvest now, Your Holiness… we’ll give ’em hell together.
?
(Closest emoji to knife hands I could find)
There’s another leg on that stool, probably bigger than the other three put together – public sector employees, and their private sector support staff.
Public union employees are a baseline that does not change from election to election. They are a given.
How they vote will not change the outcome.
The Dems lost me almost 20 years ago – I was never very enthusiastic about them, just a rote voter like so many. However, they have so completely overplayed their hand in the culture war that I think they are going to lose many folks who are still on the fence. If they stuck to their longstanding free-shit and elites coalition, they’d be a lock this year. Instead they are letting the mask slip and showing us what they really think of the average American.
I grew up in Westborough, MA. In the 70s and 80s nobody would have called it a suburb of Boston. Well it is now, with a commuter train straight into the city. So Concord darn sure is now too.
You’re probably right, Drake. In the same way that “the ‘burbs” of DC was working its way down to Fredericksburg.
In truth, I haven’t been back in the Hub for more than a pass-through in 5-6 years. I’m sure it’s changed, but I would be surprised if my Ex’s Bawston snobbery about those “other places” WAY out west or UP NORTH has changed. Concord was always treated like it was a different country when I was in college. One of our close friends in ROTC was from Concord and I had a roommate from even further east and north – they would never have dreamed of saying they were “from Boston” or even from its suburbs.
Oh I definitely wasn’t “from” Boston. It isn’t like NY where anyone from any bourough will call themselves “New Yorkers”.
In upstate NY folks are so ashamed of the cities, they could live across the street from Buffalo and say they are from “Kenmore” or whatnot.
I have to think that there are enough sane and non-propagandized people to see the current insanity of Team Blue. These are not your fathers Democrats. Ironically, Trump is in some ways.
And therein is the ill of American Conservatisim.
That is certainly the argument of those who wish to build a national conservatism.
? My point was taht if Trump is conservative, and what is Conservative is what was Democratic 30 years ago, then being a conservative just means you like the policies of 30 years ago. Nothing more.
There is no principle there is no policy that you can say “This is the conservative” position, irrespective of time. No you must know what time it is and then look back 30 years to get the conservative position.
Fair enough. There is no one more conservative than a progressive defending Social Security. Even if the proposal is to make SocSec more progressive.
Right now, I don’t really know if it matters who wins. Both sides have gone nuts. And Trump garnering more ‘blue collar dems’ doesn’t do much for our cause. All the repubs I know have gone skitso over covid and sound more and more like Q-Anon believers. The Dems I know have gone skitso and think me using that ‘derogatory’ term means I’m a racist-fascist-gay hater.
And Trump garnering more ‘blue collar dems’ doesn’t do much for our cause.
The Reagan democrats (same demographic) put Jimmy Carter out on the street. This was a good thing.
Giving Biden’s VP control of the Supreme Court would be an absolute cluster fuck.
In as far as “not killing our cause” is “helping our cause”, it’s the best we can hope for at this point.
Yes, Reagan won the blue collar dems, which led to the policies of Bush The Elder and Bush The Lesser, and McCain and Romney to try for same said Brass Ring…
The whole problem is that no one recreates the real pitch Reagan made to win them. And part of the reason for that is, Republicans never delivered Reagan’s promises. Oh, he could talk the talk, but his party could never walk the walk. People have noticed that. There is no Republican credibility these days in talking about smaller government.
Well, the issue WRT to Reagan is he never had a legislative majority. 1984 he wins 49 states, the Democrats pick up 2 Senate seats which left the GOP with only 53 Senate seats. Can’t crack a filibuster. Not that it mattered, because despite the GOP picking up 16 House seats, the Democrats had a 70 seat majority in the House.
So it’s not so much that the Republican Party of the 1980s didn’t deliver. They didn’t have the votes. Which is kind of the thing with the 20th century conservative movement. They have never combined an ideologically conservative President with the kind of congressional majority that can actually repeal legislation.
In 2008 Barack Obama won the election, and stepped into a Congress that was ready to take the next step on the road to a socialist America. The Dems had carefully picked off moderate districts with “moderate” candidates who were ready and waiting to charge whatever hill they were told to charge. Throughout the first two years, that Congress rammed through policy, with Obamacare being the crown jewel. That vote cost them the House and it costs them 6 Senate seats. But they accomplished the mission.
Then in 2016, that House majority was still there, but Paul Ryan was not a loyal servant of the President the way Nancy Pelosi was for Obama. He was a backstabber, a weasel who resented Trump’s crashing of the country club.
The Democrats have fanatical ideologues and dedicated party members. Look at all those Democratic “Blue Dogs” who had their constituents telling them to vote No on Obamacare, but did it anyway because they were good soldiers.
The Republicans have grifters, backstabbers, time servers, and closeted Democrats.
Yeah, funny how Democrats wrote the “Reagan tax cuts” that modern liberals/lefties all despise so much.
I try to ignore all the window dressing. For me, the question is, who is most likely to turn the country into a socialist hellhole? Decide, and vote accordingly, IMO.
That’s getting harder to tell, isn’t it?
“All the repubs I know have gone skitso over covid and sound more and more like Q-Anon believers.”
I mean, it’s August. We know now that COVID has a survival rate of 99.6% or so, and that .40% is overwhelmingly old and sick people. The median age of death is around 80. Like, at what point do we just say to people “Wash your hands, stop touching your face, if you’re scared stay home.”
The parties have flipped in a lot of ways. My working-class relatives are conservative. Much lawyer brother and his rich wife are raging liberals.
This is one of the points Victor Davis Hanson was making about the leftward swing of the Dems; it’s no longer the coalition that it was. I think he’s correct in his reading of the goat entrails.
Many people, particularly libertarians, pooh-poohed the Culture War because on any particular issue, it was either one they didn’t care about or they agreed with Team Blue – or at least, the position that was Team Blue’s just one or two election cycles ago. Think Drug War and Immigration, for example. (Or ass sex, too, I suppose).
But the Team Red stalwarts who claimed that those issues were always just stalking horses that would lead us inevitably Leftward may well be entitled to a little bit of “I told you so” right now.
“I told you so” is now Pat Buchanan’s middle name.
I told you so
Should Buchanan spray paint that on The Wall every 100 feet?
OT: Happy dance! ??
NYC Health Commissioner Dr. Oxiris Barbot resigns
The article doesn’t go into any detail about her bean-counting social justice background or what a truly reprehensible human being she is. It’s puzzling that she and Deblasio battled given they are ideologically identical. But whatever – good fucking riddance.
She hand’t painted ‘BLM’ on the prerequisite amount of streets.
It’s puzzling that she and Deblasio battled given they are ideologically identical.
Personal power and personality. Same thing that happened with the Bolsheviks,and really every political and most non political movements. Heck, really any human groups with more than one person.
Good point.
So I’ve been finding Taibbi a pretty interesting read of late.
I noted this on my FB yesterday and today, a link from NR about the MSNBC producer quitting in disgust with the way the 24-hr media operates – which goes to this particular quote from Frank (via Taibbi):
It’s a good read.
I do have some questions about how his “populist” story works out. He talks about the original populists and William Jennings Bryan:
It’s hard to see how you can say the movment is a popular movement if it can’t win the election. I have this same critique of the “Socialist Populists” in the left. How can you say Bernie is so populist, when he can’t even muster a greater than 30% support in his own party.
So, in reading Bowers books about Jefferson (& Hamilton) – you get pretty much the same argument between Federalists and Democratic-Republicans (the latter being the dirty populists according to the former).
It would be interesting to see Taibbi (and Frank for that matter) react to the studies that show that the masses tend to be much less enlightened and have lower tolerance for minorities.
Not just that, but i think the “Why do the voters vote against their interests”, rather than being a departure from populist roots as Taibbi claims here, it is a natural secondary step when you fail to rally the masses to your populist cause. Marx had the same issue, being annoyed that the common man did not have enough imagination to understand how communism could work, without placing it in some historical context.
Why do the voters vote against their interests
See I never let someone get away with that. How do you make that claim? Do you seriously say you know their interests better than they do?
Exactly, how can you claim to be a “bottom up” populist, whil also claiming you know what is best for everyone else.
The “voting against own interests” folks never seem to target Wall St. and Silicon Valley.
Bernie and his ilk lives in a fantasy world where it’s 1920 and Andrew Mellon is running the country, and he’s pounding on the podium trying to get miners basic safety laws, and get children out of factories, and make those factories put basic filters on the smokestacks.
We have a massive federal government, we have a steeply progressive income tax, we have an enormous system of old age pensions and disability insurance, we have federally funded healthcare for the old and the indigent, and have backdoor funding for “free” care for emergency medicine through unfunded mandates. There are strong environmental laws, strong worker safety laws, strong regulations on overtime, strong regulations on compensation. Education is tax funded from K-12, free and compulsory, and then college is heavily subsidized, with extremely well funded state schools open to all.
These things are all very popular. They were popular when they were put in place nearly a century ago. There’s not a single living American who hasn’t paid into Social Security. The youngest person to vote for Goldwater is in their early 80s. Americans, as a whole, like social democracy. They don’t call it that, but that’s what it is.
You’re talking about a guy who got into politics because the Dodgers left Brooklyn.
He’s simply WHAT I WANT SHOULD BE LAW.
BUT! Do we socialism as much as other countries!? No!? Then we aren’t socialist!
The Left is general is wedded to this underdog, little guy, counterculture image of themselves. No matter how popular and dominant their ideas become, they always act like a tiny oppressed minority.
It’s the same reason you encounter people who honestly believe that the United States resembles the world of The Handmaid’s Tale when according to all the statistics, women are a fantastically privileged and pampered class of people.
It does explain their penchant for bayonetting the wounded after one of their victories.
My aunt and uncle are both union Democrats. They are beside themselves this year because they felt that they really had no candidate they could vote for. They aren’t socialists and think that Biden is a corrupt senile asshole.
They both hate Trump, so they won’t vote for him. My guess is that they might just stay home this year. Especially if Biden’s VP pick is especially proggie.
That’s it. The Dems had no serious candidates who weren’t products of the radical left. A Jim Webb or Bob Kerry would wipe the floor with Trump. But those kind of guys couldn’t make it onto the stage of the primary debates.
A Jim Webb or Bob Kerry would wipe the floor with Trump. But those kind of guys couldn’t make it onto the stage of the primary debates.
I keep hearing this and from the other direction too. The Repubs just needed to nominate someone reasonable and this year would be Repub landslide (amnesia about Romney and McCain I guess). I think it’s bullshit both ways.
This country is changing, and becoming solidified in 2 camps. A centrist middle doesn’t exist anymore with the populace (I think largely driven away by the Left). You can’t be a more centrist politician policywise than Trump… he’s a 90s democrat playing a republican president.
I’ve read others here think out loud that playing to the middle is a losing strategy in a general election now and you need to drive turnout around your base. I’m not positive that’s the case, but it would support that there is an intractable difference between the two major political parties with no common ground any longer.
A strategy he watched up-close for 20 years in NYC.
Romney and McCain were such blatant betas they weren’t beating anyone. Rolling onto your back and submitting to every leftist principle is how to lose.
You contradicted yourself, as Trump is exactly the strategy you are saying doesnt work. He is a centrist.
by policy, yes. By rhetoric, no. Rhetoric wins.
All i can think of is this.
He didn’t run as a centrist. His policies are centrist but they are being branded by the Left as extreme far right and Trump himself doesn’t play to middle.
Although, if the Overton Window has actually shifted that much to the left that Trump’s policies are no longer centrist, it doesn’t bode well. I’d hope that this shift is more a fever dream by the left.
Or see trsh above.
When Jim Webb got absolutely ignored as compared to Hillary, I had a premonition that the Dems were heading further Left than they wanted to admit, but I was told that Hillary was just standard Team Blue politician, blah blah blah. And one election cycle later here we are.
^^ Bingo.
Where are the Democratic governors who got elected in 2012 and 2016 in states that went for McCain and Romney? Bill Clinton won with Ronald Reagan on the ticket.
The Democratic Party is increasingly consolidated in the coasts, and in states that have a big blob of blue machine to turn out the votes. Virginia isn’t leftist, Fairfax County is. Illinois isn’t leftist, Chicago is. The issue is that the bullshit civil rights act interpretation has gutted the state Senates. It used to be, you could *gasp* have an actual state Senate where small rural communities had veto power over urban political machines telling them how to live their lives. Can’t do that anymore. Hell, look at 2016 and the vaunted POPULAR VOTE WINNER. It’s entirely the margin in California.
Structurally, the history of the American system over the past 120 years is the replacement of a federal system with a national system. The transformation is almost complete, the Electoral College is the only thing left standing.
Just look at the National Popular Vote scheme.
Rather than pushing for each state to adopt a maine/nebraska system, wherein the votes are allocated by district, they want to go national popular vote. They could have much more representative voting if each state did this, and it doesn’t require a majority of states to kick in. But the reason why they want it is because that would help republicans in CA, NY, VA, IL etc.
I swear I thought I saw an analysis showing that under by-district electoral voting, Trump would have picked up electoral votes.
Which may be why you are seeing the NPV rather than by-district.
Hillary would have done better under the ME/NE system, but still lost.
Romney would have defeated Obama in 2012.
Hamilton grins; it just took a lot longer than he hoped.
Well this nice. No power and my basement is starting to flood. Hopefully my improvised dam will direct the water on down the hill.
Thanks Ozy. Lots to digest and reread. Lucky for me, I have time at the moment. Found out this morning that a work location I was at almost two weeks ago now has a positive covid so waiting in the parking lot to see if I have to go home myself. Of course the whole thing is a shit soup. Zero proactive notification and now everyone’s management chain is flipping out trying to figure out what the company policy is right now and how to implement it. For something that’s been around for months now and should be automated at this point.
For a positive COVID test. Just think about that for a moment. It’s actually less than the equivalent of a positive flu test.
This whole thing is insane.
I expect Trump to win in a landslide . . . . . except I also believe that mail-in fraud will likely change the election.
I have never been so afraid of an election in my life.
I’m still waiting on the new definition of landslide
Nixon and Reagan are useful benchmarks.
I wonder if what we’ll see if simply 1968 redux, but like you, kinnath, I
thinkknow that the election fraud this time will be absolutely rampant. And that does terrify me, too.Yes, this looks an awful lot like 68 to me (been there, done that), except the media has gone all-in on supporting rioting and domestic terrorism.
Only two things scare me and one of them is nuclear war.
The other is the results from you Gonorrhea test?
No, I consider that a point of pride.
I was hoping to re-create this.
But you fucked it up.
I do tend to fuck shit up…[deleted joke about your daughter]…
Better version of the joke:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATGaybgla0w
That is honest: at least you didn’t move the goalposts.
You noticed that CA, NJ, and NY are still in the Union?
^^ I was going to say a landslide would require the GOP candidate to win, at least, California, or New York. That is not going to happen now, and it won’t happen in the next 4 years.
Much more likely is Biden winning Texas and Utah.
I don’t think a true landslide is possible, for those obvious reasons.
We aren’t getting Dukakis or McGovern. But we might get as much as is possible within that framework. Which isn’t really a landslide.
Playing with a map, including any state I could argue for Trump winning, I get 372 EC votes. That is a big win, but not a traditional landslide. I think 350 would be a “landslide” in this environment.
340 would be impressive.
shhhhhhhhhhhh!
don’t tell them: I haven’t figured out a safe and legal way to create an online Glib pool yet
Yes, those are my goalposts.
Without fraud, I think Trump does better than 2016. I think he could approach, but not equal the Nixon and Reagan landslides (because CA, NJ, and NY).
With fraud, I think Biden wins enough states to claim victory.
Yup. Look at the swing states Trump barely won. Ask yourself: Do they have an urban Dem machine that can manufacture votes? If the answer is yes (and it is, I believe), then this election could absolutely by swung by fraud.
The real issue is whether there are enough people in those states repulsed by the hard left that they can overcome the margin of fraud, which is going to get a whole lot bigger with mail-in voting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jBkoEM0SSE
I’ve commented several times here on how I think Trump’s going to very specifically speak to black voters in the next couple of months, with “You know that…”
– the economy, employment, etc.
– the Donks have taken you for granted for generations, and look what directions things have taken
– the plandemic was deliberately to hurt the economy
– etc.
And I think it’s going to work. No enthusiasm for Biden, or love for the Dems in general.
And there’s more to it that I don’t have time to type right now. Trump’s flamboyant mannerisms and public pugnacity are resonating positively there in ways that I think most people don’t get.
Anecdote: In our small-town Southern local gun store ~10 days ago since my son was looking for some parts for adding doo-dads to an AR. Of course business was booming. White folks, black folks, etc. The p-mag25s were right beside where we were standing, and a bunch of them have artwork on the sides now. Dreadlocked black guy and his wife beside me were trying to find some with the Trump art, but they were out. He said he already had the “Liberal Tears” ones that were on the pegs.
There shouldn’t be a “25” after pmag….
Are you assuming my caliber?
https://magpul.com/pmag25m118lr-srgenm3window-7-62×51.html
Since I’m seeing more CZ75 mags at my matches, I thought about getting some distinctive base plates to help keep them from getting confused with someone else’s
*googles*
No, motherfucker, I am not putting a $40 base plate on a $20 mag!
Paint or fingernail polish both work.
Yeah, but that shows off my handwriting.
this guy will number them for $1
Laser-etching my magazines is something I keep meaning to get done, but I never seem to get around to it. Probably because paint pens are so cheap…
He said he already had the “Liberal Tears” ones that were on the pegs.
All I can think of is the field day a prosecutor would have if you used your AR to defend yourself from rioters while using those mags. Like that couple in Louisville if they had fired to defend themselves.
Good anecdote though.
That’s why I was glad to see Clyburn reference Mussolini with respect to Trump. This is exactly where Trump gets his shtick.
That said, I still don’t get the appeal, but I know that’s me being my own weird ass and not anyone else’s fault.
As an FFL I can attest. I have had quite a few first time Internet transfers come in who are black. I would say that the majority have been very apprehensive about the future narrative and while I don’t like to bring up politics with customers many have volunteered their support for Trump. Bias alert: this is West Virginia so take that with a large grain of salt. I like the enthusiasm the first timers have for suppressors and SBRs as well. Lots of new sales have gone to people that have just bought their first AR pistol lol.
I’m seeing the same thing in east Virginia and Maryland, and it’s pretty awesome.
A buddy of mine is black, twenties, employed in the graphic design industry, but sweet drunken Enkidu he’s jumped into the Gun Culture 2.0 with both feet. He’s severely addicted to PRS Smallbore competition, and just bought his first pistol (SIG P320 with the optic cut).
I am in the Charles Town/Harpers Ferry region and see quite a lot of Marylanders and Virginians at the local range. It has been quite interesting and encouraging to see the shift. It is also believe it or not a huge relief to the old school backwoods gun guys around here that felt like the 2nd was on the way out culturally to see the torch picked up and carried by a new generation.
It has been good business too I must admit. I think I have done over a dozen barrel swaps for people buying .300 AAC pistols inadvertently online (usually PSA) that didn’t know there was difference heh heh.
This past Sunday we went out for breakfast on the patio of our favorite diner. The table next to us was an older black couple, and the husband was sporting a MAGA hat and a Glock 19 on his belt.
I’ve been saying that over the past couple years, gun show attendees have gotten quite diverse
My son sold a lot of guns this summer to a lot of different demographics. His store is in a nearby suburb and they pretty much sold everything they could get in. Many buying their first guns.
I can believe it. My go-to shop is a big sporting goods store up north of here in a rural area – as big as a Bass Pro but independently owned. Historically it’s a pretty stereotypically redneck place but the last few times I’ve been in there, since the WuFlu panic began, it’s been packed with the most racially diverse crowds I’ve ever seen in there.
Back in the early 2000s, 2002 I guess, the Democrat Senate candidate running against McConnell had their Louisville office in the office next to mine. We talked to them sometimes, there was a guy who was a party guy sent in to help, who was a nice guy, but didn’t get certain things about flyover country. We heard a VERY loud argument between him and the son of the candidate over guns. The son was loud and not very bright and exactly right. He understood that being anti-gun was a losing position with KY democrats.
But the party guy was a party guy and was pushing the other way.
Ugly result: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky#/media/File:KY-USA_2002_Senate_Results_by_County_2-color.svg
Recent thought on mail-in ballots.
The same people (at least it seems like the same people – correct me if I am wrong) are pushing both mail-in voting AND election day as a national holiday.
WTF would we need both, assuming either is a good idea to begin with?
Because if election day is a holiday, it will mean moving it from Tues to Mon so everyone can have another 3 day weekend. Are you trying to tell me we don’t need more 3 day weekends? And if it’s a 3 day weekend, no one wants to stay home and vote, so we all have to mail ’em in before we go.
You must be dehydrated, have some Brawndo.
It’s got what robc craves.
You rang?
In the immediate aftermath of the election, what with all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth, while most of the media lost their minds, I remember seeing an interview a few days later with a couple of insiders in Trump’s campaign and they described their strategy. I was blown away because they described exactly what they needed to do to win and to whom they were making their pitch. Trump’s campaign knew they had to thread a needle and they absolutely did it.
That was pretty much my take, at the time. Trump’s guys sat up at night, reading the rule book, and Hillary’s team of whiz kids and know-it-alls wre so bust showboating they completely whiffed on the fundamentals. But they went to a lot of really swell parties in California and the Hamptons.
The Atlantic – before it turned into a TDS crapfest like all the media – had a great article right after the election that took apart Hillary’s campaign. Exactly zero Democrats appear to have read it (or found it inconvenient to their spin of how it was her turn and Russians did it) but pretty much exactly that. The best part was that they deliberately tried to run up the vote in CA and Louisiana – states she had in the bag – because they were afraid she was going to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote. (LOL) That’s why her campaign spent something like 50 million the last few days before the election buying tv ads in Cali, just to get those extra couple million votes that then turned her into Popular Vote President.
So given how that strategy kinda worked in their favor rhetorically (We love democracy!!) I would bet they do that again with Biden to make sure he locks down the “popular vote” no matter what happens in the EC.
Hillary lost Lousiana.
You want a great schadenfreude read? Read “Shattered” by Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes. They were provided unlimited access to HRC’s campaign team for over a year in order to write the official hagiography when HRC was sworn in as the first woman president evah. (Who knows if Buchanan pitched or caught.)
As you read you can feel the tone of the book change tone from “why is she doing this”, to “fuck the server”, to “we’ve got this in the bag”, to “run up the score”, and ultimately “WTF?!”
One key takeaway from the book was an small bit on how HRC had the forensics run on her campaign computers in 2008 to find out who was “disloyal” to her. She knew exactly what she was doing IT wise as SecState and she knew she would never have to pay with jail time because she was Hillary Fucking Clinton.
Nice job Ozy.
The talk of the NE union guys voting for Rs reminds me of what I saw with my wife’s family in the Deep South (panhandle and S Alabama). My MIL was at last able to vote for an R only when here Daddy voted for Reagan. They both seemed like they were waiting for the earth to open up and swallow them for the sin. When that didn’t happen they never looked at another Dem.
Thanks, mikey. That’s some funny shit about your MIL. Baptists?
Proofread my comments?
Bah!
Santa Claus in the brown truck is bringing me this today.
Wrong link. I go the 40 mm.
https://www.leupold.com/scopes/compact-scopes/vx-3i-3-5-10x40mm
If you can’t spot a crater on the moon with a laser dot you aren’t Second Amending hard enough!
I’m hard-pressed to believe that Trump, who most of his life was a moderate NYC democrat by any fair definition, is somehow driving away his voters from 2016 in sufficient numbers to matter.
Which is why the shit-flinging howler monkeys of the Fourth Estate spend their every waking hour shrieking about President Cartoon Villain’s alleged lies, personal failings and political missteps. And his depraved murderous indifference to the fate of millions of innocent victims of the deadliest plague in recorded history.
This is part of my take, too, that I forgot to include in this article.
Everything that the Media and Team Blue are doing right now? It all feels desperate to me. I can’t describe it precisely, but the whole thing looks like kabuki theater, or performance art, or whatever you want to call it: but none of it has the feel of confidence of certain victory. Even the polling numbers and all of the articles I’m seeing about “Trump May Quit,” “Trump Has No Path to Victory,” and on and on – it all has an air of desperation.
I think that Team Blue knows they are in trouble. I really do.
The claimed need for mail in ballots? You don’t do that if you’re confident your guy is going to win.
The pandering VP pick? A confident, certain Presidential candidate doesn’t play this kind of game.
The “no debate” trial balloon being floated? Yeah, that’s not a good look, either.
It may not quite be 1968 all over again, but I think I’m with kinnath. Trump by a slightly bigger margin than last time.
When Bass was announced as a leading candidate for VP, I immediately assumed that all the people that supposedly wanted to be VP didn’t want to be on the ticket with Biden.
I thought that was because some people really, really, really didn’t like Kamala.
I thought it was because they feel obligated to put a black woman on the ticket but realize that Kamala the Cop isn’t going to truly drive black turnout.
It might come from some humbling from the last election when they were condesending about Trumps prospects. Now they know that he could win, but want to assure themselves that he won’t.
It’s like the Paris papers in the summer of 1940, reporting each day that the French had thrown back the “tentative” German advance at a town fifty miles closer to Paris than the site of the previous day’s French victory.
I agree with this. I’ve been saying for a while now that, regardless of what the polls say, the Donks seem rather desperate. My own opinion is that stems from party honchos and their media toadies being all too aware of just how out-to-lunch Joe Biden is at this point. Think about this – we’ve seen how incoherent and befuddled he is even in the very limited, tightly controlled videos being shot in his own basement. If that’s how he is under those conditions, think about how bad it must actually be, the kinds of things he’s saying when the cameras are off. I think his mental condition is deteriorating by the day, and they know it, and they’re panicked in trying to hide it as much as possible. They are trying to drag him to the election Weekend at Bernie’s-style, when they can put him out to pasture and install his VP as president, and that’s why he still doesn’t have a VP yet – everyone in the party knows that his VP candidate will be president very quickly if he wins.
The other thing is the transparently lying nature of the media. Maybe it’s just here or similarly thinking places but they’re not even trying to wear a mask. Mostly peaceful riots, my ass.
Yeah, their hubris is something else. If I didn’t have a preference I would vote against the Dems just to punish them for that.
pfft I misread your post as “lying Dems” but I wanted to say what I said so there it is. Also it works for “lying media” too.
It’s almost as if the plague hadn’t happened, they would have had to invent it.
Almost.
The Dems are still working under the assumption that the loud crazies and their supporters represent a majority, or at least a big percentage of the population. I think the election will come down to whether or not that is true. I get the feeling it is not. I have seen a few polls where black voters are NOT in favor of defunding the police. I’m seeing a lot of black celebrities taking offense with the idea that hard work and success are “white” traits. And judging by the number of gun sales, a lot of people genuinely fear for their safety. “Defund the police and ignore looters” is not going to play well with that group.
“I have seen a few polls where black voters are NOT in favor of defunding the police.”
All of the law-and-order stuff in the late 1970s, and again in the Bill Clinton years, was supported by black communities. The book “Locking up Our Own” catalogs it pretty well.
Ozymandias, I agree with most of what you’re saying here. I think the lockdown will be a big impact. As an example, here in Ohio, DeWine is changing the rules, and (at present) prevented fans from going to OSU, Reds, Indians, and Browns games. Then we’ve got the continuing changes to the bars and restaurants, I don’t see that winning a lot of votes among the service industry workers (or owners). While DeWine isn’t up for election this year, I can see quite a few people staying home due to that.
all of the articles I’m seeing about “Trump May Quit,” “Trump Has No Path to Victory,” and on and on – it all has an air of desperation.
I think the desperation is palpable.
They are like kids who are reduced to hoping the school burns down, because they never studied for the big test.
https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1290415123400515584
Trust mail in voting!
I trust that the results will have no bearing on the actual votes.
Entirely anecdotal, but I’ve driven through fourteen states across the US on my road trip this summer, and while I’ve admittedly stayed out of big cities, I have yet to see a single yard sign for Biden. Even out in the country in 2016, you’d see the occasional Clinton sign, but this year, the flags, bumper stickers and yard signs have been 100% Trump. Also anecdotally, my liberal coworkers make jokes like, “Biden: He’s All We Deserve” so enthusiasm seems to be pretty one sided. I also expect vote by mail to enable significant cheating, so… we’ll see.
Several of my neighbors have BLM signs up. But I haven’t seen a single Biden sign yet.
Yeah I have seen, as of now, two Biden bumper stickers, and I saw a single yard sign that said “Bye Don” instead of Biden. That house last sold for 800,000 dollars in 2015. I looked it up on Zillow. Much oppression. Such resistance.
Now, I would say that the endless media fearmongering about RACIST REPUBLICAN VIOLENCE might have people keeping their stickers and signs put away. So that could account for it. Plus, at the end of the day, the Democrat voter base is people who get paid by the government, one way or another. Whether it’s a starveling on welfare, a midlevel bureaucrat, or a trial lawyer looking to cash in on some new discrimination law, they’re all voting for their wallets. Office Progs are not big Biden fans, but they’ve invested so much into ORANGEMANBAD they will probably still vote.
in my neighborhood there are 4 or 5 trump signs, 1 Biden sign, and one “this house believes in (insert various Marxist causes)” sign.
We’ve got one of those “this house believes” signs, one of those ones in four languages saying “we’re glad you’re our neighbor”, and zero Biden signs.
I still hear plenty of folks saying they’ll vote Biden simply because Trump is so bad, but have yet to meet a single one who says they’ll vote dem because Biden is so good.
I live in deep blue Denver. I get out a reasonable amount in varied neighborhoods. Social justice signs abound. I have seen two Biden yard signs and zero bumper stickers.
I’ve seen under 5 yard signs for Biden. And that’s here in the Cleveland area, part of the big blue machine (admittedly, the suburb I’m in leans more blue-collar Trump supporter). I don’t think I’ve seen a single car sticker yet.
(And no, Wikipedia, Concord, MA isn’t really the “Boston suburbs,” but nice try.)
Judging by the growth of the area, even what I’ve seen over the years I’ve been here, I’d say it is now.
A suburb on the rural side thanks to local zoning and building restrictions, but a suburb nonetheless.
Russiagate is starting to turn towards indictments. (Not for anyone that matters, but the Truth Will Out eventually).
I’d love to see it, but I think you are more optimistic than me.
As for the election: I’m through making predictions but I’d be surprised if Trump lost.
On another note: Did you get the ISBN issue sorted out for the print issue of your book? I prefer a print issue. I have told a few other folks about the book, and they’re interested. I need to get them the information. I’m not sure what edition they’d prefer.
I’d love to see it, but I think you are more optimistic than me.
I don’t think there’s any way Company Man Barr drops indictments before the election, even of low-rankers. I think Barr is all about protecting the institutions. He saw Mueller as a threat to the institution of the Presidency, so he shut him down. He will see widespread Russia conspiracy indictments as threats to the FBI and DOJ as institutions, so they aren’t happening.
The outlier for me is his decision to cancel the Flynn prosecution. I can’t see how that fits into this theory.
Thank you, DEG, for the correction, but Concord will never be the ‘burbs of Bawston in my “I got married and lived in Southie” heart-of-hearts. 😉
But bigger thank you for the opportunity to shamelessly plug the book: yes, everything is square with the book, and the print version, too.
Here’s the linkies: Print book on Amazon – https://www.amazon.com/dp/1734629304
Kindle on Amazon – https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08DNDC2NW
And Smashwords (if your friends are into that) – https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/1035118
Many thanks, DEG.
(I know, I know – it’s no longer the Beantown of my youth)… *kicks a rock*
Purchased. Thanks!
I just ordered a print version. Thank you!
I also checked on the order status for my copy of ” The Underground History of American Education “. The book is late. Amazon says it will now arrive by Friday. I checked the tracking information. For some reason, the book is in a sorting facility in White River Junction, VT. The book arrived in White River Junction, VT from Springfield, MA. Up until Springfield, MA, the tracking information looks like the book took a normal route. After Springfield, MA, something went screwy. We’ll see when it arrives.
Paper! glorious Paper! Print edition, Thanks Dale!
/Sign it for me?
Of course. Don’t buy it.
I have your addy, I’ll send you one. It’ll be easier that way.
Finally, someone talking about the most important thing on earth.
It’s Time for the Muppets to Give a Different Couple the Spotlight
According to three relationship counselors interviewed earlier this year by Mel magazine, the pairing has long been in crisis. “If there’s that level of conflict, they need professional help,” said clinical psychologist Farrah Hauke. “They’d need to work with a couples counselor and do their individual work to identify their role in the conflict, as well as their partner’s role in the conflict.”
Slate is really focusing on the issues…
On second thought, i’d rather they write on this than the drivel they usually put out.
It’s not like conflicts within a relationship have ever been part of comedy.
So we can talk about Bert and Ernie’s homosexual relationship again?
They’re cousins, so it’s incestuous, too. (although, I guess incest doesn’t really matter for homosexual relations)
Speaking of “not all black people are Democrats”:
Many years ago, I was eating my usual late lunch in a restaurant in Indianapolis. The place was about empty except for me, and two well dressed black couples (in their 60s, probably) nearby who were just sitting and talking after their meal. I try not to eavesdrop on other people, so I never heard what precipitated this. Suddenly, one of the men said, “African-American? I’m not an African American, I was born and raised right here in Indianapolis.”
I couldn’t help myself. I laughed out loud. I turned and kind of apologized, but they weren’t offended at all.
*There are A LOT of middle and upper middle class black people in Indianapolis, and I suspect they were none too impressed by the “demonstrations” and curfews in May.
I wonder how much the high black vote for Democrats is a result of so many black votes being cast in Blue Machine cities. IOW, how many black people actually voted fora Dem? We’ve all heard stories of inner city precincts that voted 90+ % for Dems, with as many or more votes as there were actual registered voters.
That’s a great point, RC. It might just be that blacks are the easiest community to target for vote fraud w/o any expectation of getting caught. How many black people would (a) find out they voted when they didn’t, and (b) actually make a big stink out the fact that their vote went “D” w/o their permission. Could you even speak up in that environment and make a claim given the social pressures?
Ahem…
https://www.inquirer.com/philly/news/politics/20121112_In_59_Philadelphia_voting_wards__Mitt_Romney_got_zero_votes.html
Wow.
And not to Romney getting zero, btw. I’ve linked in several pieces and on here that when Jill Stein asked for a recount that showed Hilary had more votes than was mathematically possible in both Detroit and Philly, I believe, so the recounts were stopped by law – in a number of districts – because of some election law on that exact issue. The fraud is rampant.
But my ‘wow’ is over how they tracked down registered Repubs in that piece and just outed them for a media piece. Holy fuck.
TMITE
I’ve also seen elections in CA where the number of urban votes cast was a fraction of the number cast in other more competitive districts. You can get elected in a well designed district with a much smaller number of votes despite them being roughly equal in population.
Only republicans engage in gerrymandering.
It’s the only reason they control the Senate!
In a general sense, I grew up in a very Republican family. Oddly enough, both of my grandfathers were NYC-born sons of Catholic immigrant families – first generation on the Italian side, second gen on the Irish side – yet they both were always dedicated Republicans. My Irish grandpa was even a Nixon volunteer when he ran against JFK, something that would be blasphemous in most Irish-American families. I have no idea how they ended up that way other than my Italian grandpa telling me how much he hated the neighborhood communists when he was a kid in the ’30s.
In my first political stirrings, therefore, I was always a Republican……but the GOP of the mid-90s generally embraced their sympathies with libertarianism (at least they’d claim they did) and this was the faction of the party I generally gravitated to. Make no mistake, I was not an LP type at this stage. I was very supportive of massive military spending, the drug war, cops, the whole nine yards.
The GWB years changed me in that regard. I remember my dad, who despite his GOP loyalty never did like W very much until he felt compelled to defend him because “he’s our guy now”, remarking in early 2001 that we’d finally find out if the Republicans meant what they said about limited government now that they had majorities in both houses and the presidency. Of course, nothing could have been further from the truth, and by the time they nominated that bitter old crank McCain, I no longer considered myself a Republican. I still can’t see myself ever voting for a Democrat. It would have to take a rare circumstance, like a Tulsi Gabbard-type Dem running against someone like Tom Cotton.
I have never cast a vote for president for a winning candidate, or a major party candidate. But I agree with Ozy that I would have voted for Jim Webb for POTUS against the GOP/LP/ or myself.
I don’t worry aabout voter fraud this election in Hawaii. They moved to the 100% mail in model before all the Kungflu cheetah flips. It is Hawaii so I know two things for sure: Biden will get the EC votes and Hawaii public employees will screw up.
And I see reports that the American Postal Workers Union just endorsed Biden.
Feelin’ real good right now about the integrity of vote by mail.
Diebold Voting Machine CEO endorses Trump!
I wonder how much the high black vote for Democrats is a result of so many black votes being cast in Blue Machine cities. IOW, how many black people actually voted fora Dem? We’ve all heard stories of inner city precincts that voted 90+ % for Dems, with as many or more votes as there were actual registered voters.
There is that to consider.
So what happens if the Dems nominate Biden this summer, but between then and the actual election it becomes so apparent that he has dementia that no one can pretend that he could serve as president?
Do the Dems replace him on the ticket? Would it be legal? Sure I know it isn’t like the Dems are some second rate party who have to follow ballot access laws, but the GOP trolls could file all sorts of lawsuits couldn’t they?
Or would they run on who their VP is and promise that she will be the bestest president ever?
I still think that there is no way they let Biden debate anyone. The reason for scrapping the debate will be so transparent that Vince McMahon wouldn’t even think of using it in the WWF.
I’d be surprised that there is nothing written in the bylaws of the party that account for replacing a candidate. Especially wince they are going to have a convention where such a system could be put in place if needs be.
Bob Torricelli would like to talk to you.
I don’t think the Dems are quite against the wall yet on ballots. Once their convention is over, I think they will be against the wall with very little to no time to change the ballots, and thus the nominee.
I don’t think an elector can vote for somebody who didn’t actually win their state, and if people don’t vote for you by name, you don’t get their votes. There is no way on Earth to win a Presidential election in any state with a write-in candidate, even for a major party.
States can enforce laws against faithless electors who are pledged to vote for a specific candidate thanks to a recent SCOTUS ruling, however there are also unpledged electors that can vote for anyone. Unpledged electors haven’t been used for over fifty years.
“Let’s suppose for a moment that I’m right and we’re in a post-2020 election world where Trump has won.”
Get ready for the for-real riots if that happens.
I don’t think we can get more real riots than what we’ve had. I think California Assembly has an article of secession brought, but no action taken.
It can always get more real, unfortunately.
*Tulsa and Los Angeles wave hello*
They’d be doing themselves and us a favor at this point.
A California secession would be glorious for so many reasons.
Gun rights people have wistfully said for a long time that California should just secede and do whatever they want instead of forcing their bullshit on the rest of the country via the federal government.
It was quite amusing to me to hear Leftist relatives talking about California secession when Trump won. They seemed to think it would be a really finger in the eye to right-wingers.
This – they already tried to bring the riots to the suburbs a few times and it didn’t work.
I’ve mentioned it on this forum before, but during the Days of Rage, around 2,500 bombings occurred in an 18-month period.
https://time.com/4501670/bombings-of-america-burrough/
Teen Activist Who Rallied to Defund Police and Remove Police from Schools Is Shot Dead in Chicago
Has to be the White Supremacists.
More than 50 dead so far in Beirut and almost 3000 injured
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/huge-explosion-rocks-lebanon-capital-beirut-live-updates-200804163620414.html
I have to believe that number of dead is an order of magnitude low. Maybe if this was in an industrial area there weren’t that many people around.
My first thought was ANFO or something similar, like McVeigh’s at the Murrah building…
Or the bombing at the Marine barracks there in that same city some years ago…
Beirut sure does know something about big explosions, unfortunately.
I’ve been around some East Coast democrats for the past 10 years. Most of those are older voters and like the folks you’re speaking of in MA, they’ve been voting democrat since forever. I think they would be totally repulsed by the democrats of today if they actually knew what they are up to. But they don’t seem to, they still seem do think it’s the same party it was in 1965.
Now maybe MA team blue people are different than MD team blue people, but they do have in common that they been voting team blue all this time.
So I think that will help the democrats keep it close again. If all of these people, many religious, and almost all not hardcore commies, actually start paying attention go the new dem far left radical platform, I think they’ll flee in droves.