Important note for this piece, I am not an economist or an epidemiologist. For most of my career, my titles have begun with the word data: data analyst, data engineer, data architect. Which means that I hate when people pull reports into excel and fiddle with the numbers, but I am fully capable of doing it. So that is what I am going to do.
Second note – if you were told there would be no math, you were lied to.
|
Age |
COVID |
FLU |
%COVID |
%FLU |
Male |
Female |
Wt – Covid |
Wt – Flu |
|
All ages |
23,358 |
5,530 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Under 1 yr |
0 |
11 |
0.0% |
0.2% |
74.14 |
79.45 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
|
1–4 |
2 |
28 |
0.0% |
0.5% |
71.77 |
77 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
|
5–14 |
1 |
39 |
0.0% |
0.7% |
64.86 |
70.08 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
|
15–24 |
21 |
38 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
55.2 |
66.25 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
|
25–34 |
183 |
124 |
0.8% |
2.2% |
45.9 |
50.53 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
|
35–44 |
462 |
195 |
2.0% |
3.5% |
36.64 |
40.97 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
|
45–54 |
1,257 |
483 |
5.4% |
8.7% |
27.85 |
31.75 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
|
55–64 |
2,993 |
1,018 |
12.8% |
18.4% |
19.72 |
23.06 |
2.7 |
3.9 |
|
65–74 |
5,093 |
1,216 |
21.8% |
22.0% |
12.75 |
15.35 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
|
75–84 |
6,429 |
1,225 |
27.5% |
22.2% |
7.31 |
8.95 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
|
85+ |
6,917 |
1,153 |
29.6% |
20.8% |
3.7 |
4.47 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sum= |
12.1 |
16.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ value = |
$1,600,000 |
$2,100,000 |
Let me explain the chart above. It is for Feb 1 – Mar 18. Age is age ranges, COVID and FLU columns are confirmed CDC deaths between those dates (USA). Percent columns are percent of total deaths within those age groups. Male and Female is life expectancy for about the midpoint of the range. I used the average of the 2 for calculating the last 2 columns, which is the percentage * life expectancy.
The Sum is the sum of those weights, meaning the average life expectancy of those that died of COVID and Flu respectively. $ value is that number multiplied by $129,000. See more on that below.
First, lets discuss the life expectancy number. It is obvious a rough estimate, as I don’t have age by sex breakdowns and even within groups picking the midpoint is going to be off. But, most COVID deaths are with comorbidities, so at the worst I am overestimating life remaining, which makes this a conservative estimate for my final results.
The dollar value of a year of life came from Wikipedia. It is on the high end of estimates used, which is good. It also leads to a figure of about $9.9 million for a life from birth, which is near but a bit higher, than life numbers used by US government agencies (normally $8-9 million). So as crass as it is to assign a value to a year of life, that is a number used in the industry of doing these kind of crass things, so it works for me.
Now that I have calculated the average value of a life lost to COVID or Flu, would are we gonna do with that?
The Feds have spent about $6 trillion on stimulus packages (maybe more by the time you read this), dividing by $1.6 million gives 3.75 million lives. Is the $6T a good estimate of the damage the shutdown has done? Did the shutdown prevent 3.75 million deaths from the virus?
Okay, maybe that is a bad estimate of the damage to the economy. I see estimates of 30-35% decline in GDP, which would be in the ballpark of $7T. So it might be a good estimate. However, much of the decline would have happened from people voluntarily social distancing and not going out as much. Businesses would still be getting hurt and closed, so lets say that only about $2T is do to government mandate. That is still over 1 million equivalent deaths. I am willing to believe the shutdown has saved as much as 100k lives (and honestly, more likely delayed the deaths, not saved), but that works out to “only” $160 billion. There isn’t much in the way of shutdown that costs less than that.
Finally, this is the kind of utilitarian calculation I hate. My inner deontologist, who usually prevents me from even doing this kind of thing, is screaming about fundamental rights. But, as usual, without doing any math he is right about the math too.
Barbie was right, math is hard. Tell me in the comments where I screwed everything up.
Sources:
CDC for the morbid death stuff
Social Security for the morbid remaining life stuff
Wikipedia for the morbid value of life stuff
People before profits.
I agree. Sacrifice people before sacrificing profits.
Where did i leave my obsidian knife…
*thinks about linking the Atlantic article saying Georgia is doing exactly that…. decides not to*
Instead, I’ll link to this:
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/495371-as-biden-struggles-hillary-waits-for-the-call
Fack…. That link was supposed to say “Loading…”
It does… in exactly the wrong spot.
Even if it means half the people die from the consequences of a collapsed economy!
I heard that as, “Care about what’s important to me, not what’s important to yourself.” Did I get it right?
You can print money but you cannot print lives
Medical science says “hold my beer”, sort of.
You can print money but you cannot print lives
Trivially true. What you can’t print is value or wealth or economic security.
I’m pretty sure we can print lives
So you’re saying the standard deduction should be about $25k/year.
I knew I was getting ripped off
but you cannot print lives
Obviously, someone is unfamiliar with Democratic GOTV practices.
Of course you can. It might take a few months for that life to become self sustaining, but…
But can I print death?
Yep, go look on the resources page of this site for the required files.
With a good 3D printer, you can print anything.
Money doesn’t grow on trees, but families do
Also you forgot to carry the 1
Also how does the evolution of death numbers affect this if in any way?
Don’t listen to Pie, he’s currently only accurate to 50,000,000,000,000 decimal places.
This isn’t a bad first pass calculation. The only thing I’d add is that there should probably be some discounting to present value. Also, the lives lost are almost entirely not at the earliest stages of life. Therefore, you should probably only consider value over the marginal life expectancy of the people who died.
Quibbles aside (my first job out of college was valuing damages for lawsuits), this is pretty good as an analysis. It’s definitely directionally right. And the flaws are only to bias the model against pointing out the insanity of the national house arrest.
See the calculation, it works out to about 12 years of life expectancy because I did account for age of people who died.
My apologies. I realized that after posting. Thanks,
Someone who twits, please tweet a link to this to Scott Alexander.
There are a bunch of Scott Alexanders on twitter with one?
I would guess the one who writes Slate Star Codex.
Okay, link sent to the slate star codex guy from some rando he’s never heard of.
“from some rando he’s never heard of.”
Isn’t that the Twitter business model?
Now you’ll be some rando he’s heard of…
You’re on a list.
Another one.
It begins
Nashville Mayor John Cooper is pushing a 31.7-percent increase in property taxes — the first tax hike since 2012 — as the city scrambles to balance its budget, according to The Tennessean.
The plan increases property taxes by $1 for fiscal 2021, which would move the rate from $3.155 to $4.155.
“This is a crisis budget,” Cooper said at a city council meeting Tuesday, the newspaper reported. The mayor announced a $2.44 billion budget proposal, which is about $115 million more than the current fiscal year.
——-
“Thousands of residents have lost their jobs during the pandemic, and that makes the necessary decision to raise taxes all the more difficult,” Cooper said. “And as I mentioned during the State of Metro address, the city has thinned its cash reserves to a point where we find ourselves without a rainy-day fund during a stormy season.”
Cooper said the tax hike is an effort to avoid laying off city employees. The city council has a history of voting down tax increases.
“If any council members don’t want to approve this let us know and we will have to begin mass layoffs,” Cooper said.
Lay them off. You morons slit your own throats with this idiocy.
we will have to begin mass layoffs
You mean, just like everybody else?
Lay them off? Why not sacrifice them to Gaia instead?
The day DoucheWine put out the lockdown order for Ohio, I told my daughter “Just wait until they start crying about needing more taxes because tax revenues are way down.”
My newsfeed had sob stories about local cities needing to lay off or furlough city workers.
As long as it’s less than…
*checks savings*
…Four months, I’m okay with a furlough.
And cut pay/benefits.
Okay, it took me a bit to grok this, but I think I get what you’re saying. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but what the chart suggests, from an actuarial perspective, is that the govt has “overspent” by at least an order of magnitude and a small multiple, and perhaps even more ($160 bn vs. ~2T) if we accept your figures.
Yes, something like that. See below, I would bump my numbers up by about 50%, I was using an out-of-date number, but it still means $240 B vs however many Trillians.
I think it’s even worse if the long term effects are considered. The damage to innovation and ability to support a healthcare system providing 21st century level medical care is only beginning.
OT (copied from AM post): Shorter credentialed elites: you fucking plebes better stay home so we specials can keep going on with our lives and avoid having to deal with you putting us at risk….
Fuck these people are evil….
Same link twice, dood.
Not sure how that happened…
Early onset dyabeetus, brought on by lack of medical care and sedentary living?
Your body is worth ~$160.
http://www.datagenetics.com/blog/april12011/
Except that it’s against the law so only the brokers get the money.
It’s $45 million because selling components is against the law. If it was legal, it would be closer to $160 than $45MM
The black-market at work.
I’m generally treated as a net negative, an inconvenience. So things are looking up!
Can’t really be sure who I trust less the cops or DeBlasio
https://www.adl.org/education/references/hate-symbols/311
Standard Disclaimer of “disgruntled employee”
“These claims are false and dangerous. It is a slight to the hardworking men and women of the NYPD to imply that they would not respond to a 911 emergency with anything but the utmost urgency,” City Hall spokeswoman Olivia Lapeyrolerie said.
Except it’s not “the hardworking men and women of the NYPD” who’d impose a directive like this.
Thot Thursday minus the big back porches people complained about this morning.
http://archive.li/tbMhs
Pat and UCS are not people. Do they think they’re people?
Someone gets it.
1 27 29
24 and 29 have too many freckles.
on the cheeks/nose is fine, but they’re absolutely covered in ’em. Very pretty girls otherwise.
number 1 is very striking.
i find 27 striking as well
Thank Q
I need a woman with an ass like a dump truck. And she’s haulin’ 5 tons of fuck.
So why,when grandma falls out of bed at the nursing home, do her heirs get $10 million in the lawsuit? Can a villa in Tuscany, frequent trips to Disneyworld, and a beach home in the Bahamas really make up for all the love and affection granny would have given you from her bed in the last 6 months of her life?
Shit yes, way more probably.
So why,when grandma falls out of bed at the nursing home, do her heirs get $10 million in the lawsuit?
Because the nursing home either has incompetent lawyers or the local trial courts have been thoroughly corrupted. Believe it or not, I have settled more than case exactly like that, and they weren’t for anywhere near 7 figures. We’ve also had deaths from falls that we didn’t pay a nickel on.
I see estimates of 30-35% decline in GDP, which would be in the ballpark of $7T.
If the contraction is that deep, the feds will be printing/spending a hell of a lot more than they already have. If the contraction is that deep, I see some kind of societal collapse as being on the table, in which case all bets are off as to spending or even whether the government, or the nation, survives in its current form. I’m really going to have to do some thinking on contingency plans. Even a month ago I didn’t dream we could fuck things up this much, this fast.
All for a second fucking flu season.
if it saves one life…
“All for a second fucking flu season.”
More like because Her Majesty lost an election a few years back.
^This^
The deplorables voted wrong, now they are going to pay.
I would also like to note that the damage done to the economy in the last few months would have happened had her majesty been elected but it would have happened slower.
I dunno, Suthen. The panic was started by the DemOp Media, who were crowing over the opportunity to make this Trump’s Katrina moment. I think the coverage would have been much more like the coverage of Obama’s swine flu pandemic – tepid to supportive, downplaying any claims of impending doom.
Without the panic driven by the media, I wonder if we would be looking at any lockdown orders. This thing still hasn’t pencilled out to be worse than the swine flu, so I also have to wonder if the economic impact of the Commie Cough alone would have been very significant.
We’ll never know how much, but I believe most of the economic damage is entirely self-inflicted by our political class responding to a panic which was overtly created to hurt Trump.
“Without the panic driven by the media, I wonder if we would be looking at any lockdown orders”
No chance. Not saying Herself wouldn’t have been a complete disaster. If she’d won, we’d be entangled in probably 2 or 3 additional hot wars, Zerocare would have been expanded to such an extent that it would be de facto single payer, the judiciary would be full of Bolsheviks and the permanent bureaucracy would have even more cronies and grifters.
However, we would not be freaking out over Kung Flu. The Dem/Op/Media complex vowed to make us all pay for electing DRUMPF and they have finally succeeded.
Psst, he was talking about her policies doing the damage, not about Covid.
That’s what I meant when I asked the other day whether, under Obama, the media incitement to panic would have been anywhere near what it is now. I didn’t meant to imply they’d be any less power-hungry, any less leftist, or any less willing to throw over our Constitutional order in favor of some commie Final Solution… just that they’d be constrained by a Democrat president who needs to be seen as pragmatic and conventional, even if he’s as much a socialist as any of them.
As to the response that this panic beset many places without Trump or a Trump analogue—my contention is that throughout the world there exists a globalist-leftist wing of the ruling class, not some hidden cabal but simply a wing that eschews nationality as barbaric and unnecessary, abhors religion and family, and embraces a pan-global socialist mentality. I think this is a movement that will, generally speaking, help make things more difficult for the American president if that president isn’t a far-leftist. Conversely, it will help to foster that image of steady-handed senior statesman for a far-leftist president. It’s not a question of conscious fidelity to America or our lefty presidents, it’s simply a function of their globalist mentality. They’d be much happier seeing America subordinated to the EU, but for now, America is the main power center.
So maybe I’m demented, but I just don’t see other countries behaving like this if Obama were president. I expect there’d be a lot of consternation but ultimately they’d follow his lead, and his lead wouldn’t be flexing maximal power over everyday life. It would be to keep up the masquerade of normality while subverting political institutions behind the scenes—precisely what he did for eight years. His public attempts at subversion, like Obamacare, were disastrous. He did his best work under cover of darkness.
That’s what I meant when I asked the other day whether, under Obama, the media incitement to panic would have been anywhere near what it is now.
You don’t have to wonder. Obama had a pandemic of his own. There was no media-driven panic.
I am developing a crush on my Governor.
Furloughed workers looking to stay on unemployment rather than returning to work when asked will be stripped of their benefits in Iowa.
The Iowa Workforce Development noted that refusing to return to work over concerns of catching the virus will be considered a “voluntary quit,” and those who quit their jobs are not eligible for unemployment benefits.
Liberals everywhere scream bloody murder.
It shouldn’t be only if they are worried about catching the ‘Vid. It should be any employee who has been asked to come back to work and refuses for any reason (other than being disabled or sick).
For all the talk of irrational karens. Her and the South Dakota gov are coming up like champs.
If the contraction is that deep, the feds will be printing/spending a hell of a lot more than they already have. If the contraction is that deep, I see some kind of societal collapse as being on the table, in which case all bets are off as to spending or even whether the government, or the nation, survives in its current form. I’m really going to have to do some thinking on contingency plans. Even a month ago I didn’t dream we could fuck things up this much, this fast.
No kidding. I never thought western culture would commit suicide, in my lifetime.
We can kiss that “too much to lose” stuff goodbye.
All the good spots under the bridge are already taken. Us newbies wouldn’t stand a chance of getting a prime spot.
For at least 20 years I’ve ended emails and conversations with “Don’t sell your guns”. Some of the progs would question my sanity (and rightfully so).
It could get exciting before its over.
It’s what empires do – every time. They get rich, then they get lazy and dumb, then they end in a fit of stupidity.
One big flaw: my $129000 number is out of date, adjust upwards about 50%.
Also, since I wrote this, I saw a number suggesting that voluntary cost of lockdown is only about 20% of total cost, so that makes the breakeven even higher than I estimated.
Is the voluntary cost the delta between the impact of the Commie Cough on the economy without any lockdown, and the impact with the lockdown?
Yes, the voluntary cost is the estimate of the cost due to voluntary social distancing vs mandatory social distancing.
“I never thought western culture would commit suicide”
It’s not suicide so much as it comes up with every excuse to continue its smack habit.
Looks good enough to me. without doing a medical history on every death, you can’t really refine the life expectancy numbers too much imo. The biggest question mark is definitely the economic damage, but even that actually under counts the damage of these orders. Anything people were doing for free/near free, like seeing grand parents, friends, etc. plus general value of freedom itself should also be included as costs.
I gave up 10k/yr to live near my family, so at least for me, we’re talking minimum losses of a couple grand so far, on top of actualized economic damage.
Here’s my shocked face ?.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/30/rigid_lockdowns_imperil_public_health_im_in_a_position_to_know_143071.html
Put some more english on that ball
Sweden has attracted global attention for not imposing a full lockdown, as seen in most of Europe, to contain the coronavirus pandemic.
Nonetheless, data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.
Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, gave two possible scenarios for the economic outlook in 2020, which it said “depend on how long the spread of infection continues and on how long the restrictions implemented to slow it down are in place.” Both possible economic outcomes are bleak.
Alternative reading: “Massive lockdowns had no obvious beneficial effect.”
The growth projections are sobering for a country that looked to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus by not shutting down its economy like the rest of Europe. Lockdowns in Germany, Spain, Italy, France and the U.K., aimed at saving countless lives, have all hit their economies severely.
Interconnected economies are interconnected. What a revelation.
Once, upon showing up at home with a new rifle, my wife asked me “Good grief, how many rifles do you need?”
My answer? “All of them”
Turns out I was right. As Brooks noted above the ‘too much to lose’ principle is going to go away very quickly if this shit keeps up.
My go to would be “one more than I have”.
Fortunately I live in the middle of nowhere and barely anyone knows I am here so if TSHTF maybe I can keep my head down and keep the wife safe. I have already had half of a dozen people tell me in a worse case scenario I should expect them to show up at my house. You know….scary white boy and all that nonsense.
No needs a 30 caliber clip.
How many calibers does a clip need?
Suthen, I’m coming around to your belief about guns.
My wife who is not a big fan of guns read some shit about food supply chains being disturbed and knows that it could end up bad especially if people are jobless and hungry. Thinking about getting a Remington 870 or a Mossberg Patriot
The semi-automatic Remington 11-87 is a good option as well.
My wishlist has changed over the past month. When guns and ammo are back on the shelves, I need a semi-auto 12-gauge, something that runs on 5.56 / .223, and then a bolt-action rifle that can reach out. The reverse of what I was planning.
Inventory at the bottom of several lakes:
9mm pistols (6)
9mm Ruger PC9
5.56 nato Ruger mini-14
20 gauge Remington 11-87
Still I feel like I am lacking something or other.
Obligatory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caMHdcRNEkc
I have posted that one myself.
Next obsession: Mini-14 Tactical 300 blackout or Mini-13?
try mini-30
Mini-30. 7.62×39 is close to ballistically identical to .300 BLK and way cheaper.
I shoot both 223 and 7.62×39.
The 7.62×39 is great at close range. Range-wise it is roughly close to 30-30. Out past 300 yards it is nearly worthless.
The nice thing about 223 is that it works well on anything you can see. Get some heavy bullets…55-62 grains with boat tails and you can really reach out to 1000 yards.
The 300 BLK was designed to be a short range sniper round for rifles with suppressors. That means is designed to shoot below the speed of sound….less than 1000 fps. For any other use it is worthless.
Mini-14 for the win
Springfield M1A1 for the bigger win
7.62×39 is priced right for stacking deep.
Springfield M1A1 for the bigger win
Suthenboy speaks wisdom. If your situation might call for more range and power, go with an M1A. Or if you really like the AR platform, get one that shoots .308.
The approach to Casa Dean is a long, straight road. Casa Dean itself has approaches, including the driveway, that are longer than I would want to cover with only a handgun or shotgun. The kind of situations where more range and power might just come in handy. YMMV.
Frankly, if I decide I need to kill someone, I’d rather do it outdoors. Less mess that way.
That’s what she said.
Mini-14 for the win
Springfield M1A1 for the bigger win
Springfield M1A1 is on the list. They have one sitting in the rack at the local gun shop.
The 300 BLK was designed to be a short range sniper round for rifles with suppressors.
The Ruger PC9 will take a suppressor too.
There are three empty slots in the gun cabinet. One is already waiting for the M1A.
I have an FNAR.
Which is a great solution for the mid range problem.
Only complaint is extra mags are expensive and hard to find.
*chuckle*
I’m saving for a Beretta PX4 Storm Compact with a custom trigger job right now.
It will be the 92 Elite after that I’m sure.
Yeah, the 92LTT is a definite “want” gun. And not outrageously expensive.
You lack a long-range weapon.
Re: semi-auto shotguns, I have been very happy with my CZ1012
Some flavor Beretta 1301 is the current leading candidate.
Welcome to the club Ed! From what I remember, you’re in Chicago which is very unfortunate from a gun standpoint. However, you should still have a few options as long as you have time and money to deal with the bullshit.
For urban self-defense, a bolt action long gun is not particularly useful. If that’s your use case, a shotgun or pistol is a much better option. Of course, if you’re trying to shoot food, it would be ideal.
I now live in Lake County in a Northwest Suburb of Chicago which are a tad bit more laxed on gun laws than Cook County. The great thing about Barrington is that there’s a mix of hard core Republicans, Country Club Republicans, and Democrats, so the city council never try to pull any shit with guns like the People’s Republic of Oak Park would.
It depends on how much you intend to spend.
https://www.mossberg.com/product/590m-mag-fed-pump-action-50206/
If you are acting defensively only it will almost surely be close range and nothing nothing nothing beats a 12 gauge for close range effectiveness.
With the Mossberg it is pump action (highly dependable) and box magazine fed (reloads very quickly).
I just said to one of (((them))) this morning “Any Jew that doesn’t own a rifle is an idiot”. You should have seen the look on his face.
Get yourself a gun Ed.
Does anyone have practical shooting experience with one of the mag-fed pumps? I know Yusef has one, but I don’t know how/how much she’s shot it. It seems that (especially for the 20 round mags) it would add weight, and something to catch on/snag/break when using cover. The lever arm available seems like you could do a lot of damage to the gun.
Of course, I’m an optimist and think people overbuy when it comes to home defense. Then again, my wee domicile is only 10 yards across, so I know I can trepan with a 9mm or obliterate with trap loads at that range.
I had a Saiga 12 and bought a bunch of extra mags for it. They feed fine if you don’t max them out. I put 8 in 10 round box mags. It feeds 3″ better than 2-3/4″ which is fine by me.
3″-#4 buck 41 pellets
3″ -#00 buck 27 pellets
Those arent wimpy defense/police loads. They are magnum hunting loads…about as hot as it gets.
It really is an unbelievable amount of firepower
I think a 12 gauge 00 shell has around 10 pellets (going from memory). Of course, each pellet is roughly the size of a 9mm bullet, so you are basically magdumping an entire pistol into the target every time you pull the trigger.
Paul Harrell did a nice video on shotguns for defense. 00 buck will penentrate a couple of walls and the exterior sheathing of a house. #3 buck will pass through a couple of layers of sheetrock but not the exterior sheathing.
However, #3 buck penetrates the meat target just fine. Breaking ribs on the way in then passing all the way though the muscles on the back.
20 gauge #3 buck is 20 pellets at 0.25 inch travelling at 1,000+ fps.
Unless you need to shoot someone through a solid oak door, 20 gauge will work just fine.
Claymore or GTFO
9 pellets in a 2-3/4″
Winchester magnum hunting 3″ = 27 pellets
The recoil and blast are….really something. You gotta hang on tight
Ugh. I got that completely wrong.
12 gauge 3″ has 15 pellets
Where did I get 27?
The most important metric for me is whether or not my wife can take a shot and then take the second shot quickly and accurately.
Now way, my old lady is handling the magnum load in 12 gauge.
IIRC #00 buckshot has about 12 to 16 shot (typical cartridges) that each weigh about as much as an average 22lr bullet.
I used to shoot 3 inch magnums. I’d shoot them now if I needed to, but they’re definitely not something you want to cycle a lot of, at least not if you like your shoulder.
My first shotgun experience was at age 10 with a 20 ga single shot break barrel. Dad kept saying “Hold it tight, no hold it tighter, tighter dammit” Then he said “Ah hell, pull the trigger you’ll find out the hard way.” And I did.
Alright, you made me Bing since I biffed the number of pellets in a shell.
A 00 pellet weighs about 1/4 ounce. A 115 grain 9mm bullet weighs just over 1/4 ounce. .22 LR bullets weigh about 40 grains. An 0 pellet weighs about 48 grains, a little heavier than a .22 bullet.
The amount of damage a 12 ga deer slug can do is quite impressive.
Eleven-year-old chess players. They’ve just learned how all the pieces work. They know the queen is powerful. They see one move ahead. And the queen spends the entire game flitting from spot to spot chasing as the player chases whatever opportunity presents itself. This player knows he (usually he, rarely she at that age) is the best player around, because he wins every game he plays.
Then the eleven-year-old plays a 14-year-old with three years experience that can see three maybe four moves deep. The eleven-year-old learns humility or quits.
This explains everything you need to know about the current government response to COVID-19.
Preview is my friend.
Preview is my friend.
Preview is my friend.
Your friend, preivew is.
Help you now, it cannot.
I taught my 4-yr-old daughter rock-paper-scissor this morning.
She always plays rock.
This explains everything you need to know about all governments.
I taught my 2 year old to roast marshmallows yesterday, he wouldn’t eat them and kept dropping the stick into the fire. then he pretended the hose was a snake and chased my wife around with it.
this tells you everything you need to know about governments.
My two year old had a hysterical fit this morning because a fly got into the house and wouldn’t stop screaming until I simultaneously carried her away from the fly and killed the fly.
This tells you everything you need to know about Karens.
My friend’s 7 year-old is *severely* autistic (G-d bless him) and will never advance beyond a mental age of 20 months. He does not understand language, is violent, aggressive and destructive. He throws tantrums that are downright demonic. He will never be able to make his own choices or take care of himself.
This tells you everything you need to know about a significant minority of voters.
He’ll make a great Presidential candidate in a few years.
better than Biden…
I will stop complaining now.
I hate those screaming flies, too.
Jugsy’s boxer is smarter and more honest than Brian Williams.
This explains everything you need to know about the media.
The EU is fucked.
ECB says it’s ready to increase coronavirus stimulus as euro zone posts worst GDP since records began
The decision came on the same day that data revealed the 19-member region’s economy contracted by 3.8% in the first quarter — the lowest reading since records began in 1995 — as the coronavirus pandemic hit business activity in the region hard.
“The euro area is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime,” ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a press conference Thursday. She added that the central bank expects a GDP contraction between 5% and 12% this year.
Foreseeable consequences and all that.
“The euro area is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime,”
Whaddya know? The Nazis are destroying Europe’s economy again!
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/rutgers-prof-stands-by-her-tweets-blaming-trump-supporters-for-coronavirus-deaths.html
She seems nice.
I notices that my acquaintances who are berating people for protesting this shutdown are the ones who are getting paid while working from home. It’s absolutely absurd that no one of any importance have called out these assholes who could give two shits whether someone loses their jobs if it means they are secured and protected from the virus.
I’ll say it again, scratch a Progressive and what you’ll see is an elitist asshole who hates the working class.
She’s got multiple degrees in things ending with “studies”. Which means she’s a credentialed idiot that’s employed by the university to soak up tuition dollars from unwitting morons. I’d love to put her in the same room as Paglia and let them go at it.
I’d love to put her in the same room as Paglia and let them go at it.
How I imagine that confrontation:
Flight of The Concords, Hiphopopotamus Vs Rhymenoceros…”They call me the Hiphopopotamus, my lyrics are bottomless… … … … … *cough*”
“I curse cuz I’m grown”
Yeah, it makes you sound very mature.
They’re very serious people who understand the important things much better than you.
“Department of Women’s, Gender and Sexuality Studies”
I am guessing she is single
All y’all are assuming her gender. Did it tell us its pronouns?
Rutgers has some real beauties. There’s this one, and then there was also this asshole
Conundrum
“Right now, everyone who is not working at restaurants is able to be on unemployment,” she told NPR.
“But once restaurants decide to open, and if we decide that we don’t feel safe going back into those restaurants, we then are no longer eligible for unemployment because then we have a job opportunity that we’re turning down,” Truman explained.
“It’s a tremendously scary thing to have to think about,” she said.
The predicament is one in which millions of people receiving state unemployment benefits along with federal dollars from the CARES Act — in and outside of the restaurant industry — will soon find themselves, as more states follow Georgia’s lead in restarting some sectors of the economy.
Meanwhile, others living in states where lawmakers choose to heed warnings from top health officials that it’s too soon to reopen will remain eligible for financial relief.
Natsoc Propaganda Radio. God love ’em.
WHYCOME HICKS NO SCIENCE?
We’re listening to the “experts” so well for Kung Flu, what’s stopping us from following all the advice of climate “experts”?
if we decide that we don’t feel safe going back into those restaurants, we then are no longer eligible for unemployment because then we have a job opportunity that we’re turning down,
That’s right. I see no problem with you making your own decisions, and taking the consequences of making your own decisions.
others living in states where lawmakers choose to heed warnings from top health officials that it’s too soon to reopen will remain eligible for financial relief.
This is why Trump should end the national state of emergency and cut off the federal spigot. If you pay someone to stay locked down, well . . . there’s an Iron Law for that.
Not just if they get an offer from their previous employer but they’re supposed to be looking for work all along and accepting any offers at the risk of losing benefits entirely.
I think the only exception perhaps is a short term furlough where you have an expected restart date such as a mill shutdown.
OT – I was cleaning up some old Japanese study aids and ran across this.
It’s amazing bit of design and quite useful. It also sums up nicely in one chart why verbs are so painful in Japanese.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/68/AMB_Japanese_Verbs.pdf
Thanks! Will look at it more when I’m free.
Japanese teacher has been doing zoom sessions (great!) but during my regular commute so I’ve been slipping.
If you are on unemployment your income is subject to the whims of the govt. Huh, who knew?
Lansing, MI protestors get into the statehouse
Warning: auto-play video
Sounds like the cops let them into an anteroom and blocked them off there.
Now they are all grounded until Christmas.
As a native and almost lifelong resident of Ohio, I don’t say this lightly – way to go, Michiganders!
If I were a Michigan state lawmaker, I would start getting a little nervous.
Governor may be about to get her leash put back on.
A muzzle would be a nice touch.
I read some other coverage.
The legislative chambers were empty during the protest. Both houses had gone into recess, but hadn’t ended their session.
Pictures of the protest going on outside the State House show a few protestors carrying rifles, just like at earlier protests in Michigan.
I’ve either seen in person or seen pictures of anti-lockdown protestors carrying rifles at protests in Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Washington state, and either Kansas or Nebraska (can’t remember which one but I think it was Kansas).
Hopefully the Repubs in the State Legislature show some balls. Has future President Amash sounded-off on this issue?
He’s probably getting conflicting messages from his Chinese business partners (“we didn’t think you idiots would destroy your own economy, which is killing our profits”) and the TDS media (“we should tighten up and extend the lockdown”).
Sad that this even needs to be said.
https://pagetwo.completecolorado.com/2020/04/29/caldara-coronavirus-didnt-shut-down-the-economy-government-did/
Though our betters would rewrite yesterday’s weather given the opportunity.
http://archive.li/ySMvx/fe53f3f1a338b92c93c6cba5ff85ae8e902c220b.jpg
http://archive.li/ySMvx/fe53f3f1a338b92c93c6cba5ff85ae8e902c220b.jpg
The dirty details of the attempt to railroad Michael Flynn are starting to come out now.
More here.
http://archive.li/ySMvx/fe53f3f1a338b92c93c6cba5ff85ae8e902c220b.jpg
So why Flynn? What made this guy such an important target that they pulled out all the stops, and used every dirty trick in the book to get him?
Leverage on the rest of the administration. There’s no other logical reason. Flynn probably just happened to be the easiest target in their view.
He was a major critic/skeptic of the permanent bureaucracy.
He was about to restructure the Intel agencies in ways the deep state didn’t like.
In addition to the reasons cited above, Flynn was also the Trump advisor pushing him the hardest when it came to scuttling Obama’s beloved Iran deal.
More and more DOJ lawyers are on the list of people who should be fired, lose their law licenses, and be indicted.
Confident prediction remains: at best, a couple of low-level expendables will be sacrificed. No consequences will be visited on People Who Matter.
My understanding is the CIA had a major hate on for Flynn. I wouldn’t be surprised if DOJ did this at their behest.
My understanding is the CIA had a major hate on for Flynn.
Ah, now this would clarify things greatly. Because I think Brennan was behind most if not all of the hacking/collusion/russiagate thing.
FWIW, which probably isn’t all that much, Joe DiGenova is claiming that James Baker, the former FBI counsel, is turning stoolie and singing to Durham’s investigators.
January 5, 2017 : WSJ: Trump Set To Restructure Intel Agencies
So they shivved Flynn.
You need to multiply the dollar value of a woman’s life expectancy by .78 to get an accurate number.
/ducks
Hear hear.
https://townhall.com/columnists/chrisstigall/2020/04/30/what-good-is-saving-lives-if-were-not-allowed-to-live-n2567904
Those goal posts got moved so far away we’ll never find them.
My new recession and Wuhan Virus safe business…
TW:NYT
I’ll take an “age old craft” made mechanical watch any day over spending $500 for a single album.
I could hire a band for $500.
Where do you connect the glowing vacuum-tube amplifiers to the vinyl press?
TW This is CNN…
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/politics/donald-trump-brad-parscale-campaign-coronavirus/index.html
The much accurate, never second guessed “souces close to the matter” are presented as the accurate part of this story but the actually quoted Mr. Parscale and the president as cast off as un-reliable souces.
Just catalog this with all the others…
Aren’t some people more valuable than others and that’s why some get paid more than others?. Is there a depreciation scale? After a certain time/age one is less valuable?
Ex. Anyone can be a politician (were it not for morals, I mean). One leaves, another starts, never miss a beat.
Garbage men/women/people on the other hand are extremely valuable. Its a job too few want, demanding physically if there is such thing as tub out anymore. If a garbage person gets sick it becomes noticeable rather quickly. True heroes in my book
This is why my FIL either gives a fat wad of spending money or a bottle of booze to his garbage men; sorry, sanitary control specialists. Mike Rowe does an awesome job highlighting all these types of jobs that are dirty, ugly, sometimes not well paying but apparently very satisfying.
ALWAYS give your IT support team Christmas presents.
Don’t forget to tip your astorloger!
Is that the guy who once rented a house to Astor Piazzolla?
I recently used this very example.
Who would you notice first if they disappeared from your community? The mayor or the garbage man?
I’ve been thinking about something. The lockdown cheerleaders are always wont to remind the world that if you don’t stay locked up in your home, you might actually be sick and infect someone else, who might infect someone else, who might die.
Okay. But, what if that person who dies because I went out would have been the next Hitler? All the doctors and nurses are getting a big applause line, but where’s mine? I mean, dammit, I saved the world from Hitler v2.0! Don’t I even get a “thank you very much” for that?
What’s the value of the life of an orphan? Asking for a friend.
We were supposed to assign value to them? Shit…Ill be back
Of course, it will depend on whether you are buying or selling. Just check with Adorphan.
Trained or untrained? Male or female? Pre or post puberty?
Depends on the skill of the butcher
Fun notes from the past couple of days:
Lady in her 50’s I would say, in front of me in at the supermarket has ranting to the checker how our Guv is a jackass and needs to be recalled.
More and more talk about recalls and apparently about 5-6 locations throughout Vegas that are running the recall petitions through the weekend.
Cautionary tells on the local social media Nextdoor is starting to move from “we must stay home!” to “I am going to the lake!” or “Our guv is an idiot! He is only doing what Newsom wants!” (I liked that part).
There is definitely two camps that have emerged in Vegas. The Stay-At-Homers and the Enough-Of-This-Shit. Stay-At-Homers have reliably fallen back on “just one life!” during debate/argument. Enough-Of-This-Shit is actually a wider spectrum from the “I understand but its time…” to “Fuck you guv its time to work!”
Poli-sci or Sociology would be fun during these times if I believed in either of them soft sciences.
Stay-At-Homers have reliably fallen back on “just one life!”
Ask anyone who says this if they own a swimming pool and, if so, when they plan to fill it in. It could save one life, after all.
Or drove a car, cooked on a stove-top, climbed a ladder, had unprotected sex, kissed a girl/guy/xe, went dancing, shared a beer, and on and on and on.
I like using swimming pools, because they are purely recreational and actually have a body count (somewhere around 3,000 a year). And a lot of the victims are young kids.
If you aren’t willing to ban swimming pools, you aren’t the least bit serious about “if it saves just one life”.
that’s different because reasons.
I’ve actually never gotten an answer whenever I bring up such things. They just ignore I said it.
So stay at home and save your life. I will live mine as a free man.
The Russian Prime Minister has tested positive for COVID-19.
Is this the guy they picked to keep the seat warm so Medvedev can take it and appoint Putin his successor or something?
Who needs polonium when ya got the CoVID19!!
Yeah, that’s the new guy. I haven’t even memorized his name yet.
What I’m getting out of all this is what a bubble wrapped society we live in, expecting that we can realistically eliminate most dangers and causes of death.
People, I hate to break it to you, but every day, kids die, old people die, a couple is killed in their wedding limo—it totally sucks! Throw in some war and natural disasters and you see that if you look hard enough, you’re going to see some harsh, undeserved conditions even at the best of times.
The mistake is in promoting these individual tragedies —“My 80 year old Pa-Pa died of the COVID while in memory care!”—doesn’t give the government or a militia of Karens the ability to take my freedoms.
This is something that shouldn’t need to be explained; but much of the population has become indoor cats. They expect a life of comfort and safety in which their needs are catered to and that they don’t have to worry about the big, scary outdoors.
I have asked people before if they would prefer to be the canary in the gilded cage or the sparrow in the bare tree in the middle of winter.
A fairly large number says canary. Those are the honest ones.
I want to be the barred owl, raining hell on squirrels.
NO CHOSING OTHER BIRDS, SPARROW OR CANARY. SOMBODY GET THIS GUY OUTTA HERE, FUCKING TURD IN THE PUNCHBOWL, SHEESH, SOMETIMES I SWE…*rambles off incoherently*
In all fairness it is pretty scary out there. I was talking to my father yesterday and the subject came up. He is elderly now and was reflecting on his life. He said he was thinking about all of the places he has been and things he has done and looking back he wouldn’t do 1/4 of it now. He was marveling at how stupid he had been wandering around in the amazon basin, the bush in Africa, the deserts of Mexico, etc without a gun and how he managed to not get killed.
For that matter I wonder how I managed to wander around the hills in Catahoula parish by myself for 40 years and not get killed. Of course, I always had a gun but…
I stopped in to see my lawyer once after a day in the woods and he was alarmed. “You go up in those hills by yourself? Are you crazy? Do you know what kinds of people are up there?”
“Yes. I am one of ’em.”
As one of my drill instructors had painted on his cover block, “Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I shall fear no evil, for I am the meanest motherfucker in the valley”.
I waited till noon today before I poured a cocktail. Smirnoff and Emergen-C, Perrier.
I have zero to do for work until May 4. Luckily, I’ve got a couple gigs and should be billable for the two weeks after that.
Guitar strumming and day drinking.
Is it only me, or is Drudge pretty much useless these days?
Yes it is. Theory is that Drudge is in name only and no longer controls the site…
But who knows.
It’s been steadily getting skin-suited for at least the past year. I hear that Matt Drudge sold it to some undisclosed buyer.
I used to check in daily.
Its off my list. As in, I don’t even have the shortcut in my favorites any more.
Earlier today wife was watching something and a person claimed that everyone is a hypocrite in some way or other. She took issue so came and asked me if she or I were hypocrites in some way.
“Well, I probably am. I complain about govt overreach with regards to this coronatardness yet I am ‘cooperating’. Cooperating in that my life hasn’t changed one bit. When the governor recommended we all stay home and not interact with other people I responded with “Oh no! Not the briar patch! Anything but the briar patch!”
So yeah, I guess I am in a way. That may change. People are obviously getting fed up and when they start getting hungry….things are going to get ugly real fast.
Briar patch
*from back when the Onion was still kinda funny
That didnt play for me. Try this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pz5NPe7xPU
I don’t know if anyone mentioned this earlier, but…..your latest indication that Biden’s mental acuity has shrunk to that of an earthworm is that he’s asked Chris Dodd to help him find the right female running mate. If Chris Dodd’s name rings a bell, it’s probably because he famously tag-teamed with Ted Kennedy to harrass a DC waitress, the infamous “waitress sandwich”.
Great call, Joe. Just the man to help you as you attempt to fend off a sexual assault accusation.
Chris Dodd, corrupt as they come, and tapped to come up with financial regulations with another “corrupt as they come” named Barney Frank.